Fantasy Baseball 2016: Draft Mookie

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Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

I was going to wait until 2016 and make the 2016 thread.

Podcasts are cool.

Fangraphs' Sleeper and the Bust and BP's Flags Fly Forever are must-have resources.

CBS is really good too.

Fantasy Focus Baseball also exists (it's good too but super cringy at times if Cockcroft doesn't get reined in).

And be careful using xFIP if you're gonna use it because if a pitcher has dogshit defense behind him he will continue to have dogshit defense behind him unless something changes (but I agree, it is useful).

Spoeank fucked around with this message at 07:47 on Dec 28, 2015

# ¿ Dec 28, 2015 07:45

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# ¿ Apr 28, 2024 19:48

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

That's a little weird in that in a 6x6 you usually add holds. I do like K/BB (my 7x7 has it). Errors is a little out of nowhere.

My 7x7, for reference:
R, RBI, SB, HR, AVG, H, TB
W, L ( :barf:

), SV, K/BB, ERA, WHIP

L used to be Holds but there was a great Gnashing of Teeth and the league voted to switch it to losses, which I hate. I also hate that there are 3 rate stats for pitchers and one rate stat for hitters.

With an 8x8 H2H like that I wouldn't even bother with saves, and wouldn't pay up for speed. Emphasize the relievers traditionally devalued because they're 7th/8th inning guys. I call my strategy MASHERS.

(Marginalize All Slap-Hitting Extraneous Running Specialists)
(Marginalize All Saves/Holds ERA Ruining Specialists)

Spoeank fucked around with this message at 06:15 on Jan 7, 2016

# ¿ Jan 7, 2016 06:12

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

http://draftwizard.fantasypros.com/

Draft Wizard is up :toot:

# ¿ Jan 8, 2016 19:58

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

~~someone was dumb enough to let me write for them~~

I wrote a thing exploring BABIP, K-BB% and some players due for positive regression:

http://theinscribermag.com/fantasy-sports/fantasy-baseball-2016-sleeper-pitchers-and-advanced-stats.html

tl;dr - go get Michael Pineda and Rick Porcello

# ¿ Jan 12, 2016 20:25

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Crap I was like hurr Indian pitcher hurr. Thanks for the heads up

# ¿ Jan 12, 2016 21:52

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

I might go Stroman or Cueto over Conforto, but without knowing how you split your auction budget, I wouldn't be sure.

# ¿ Jan 19, 2016 05:46

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

In that case I would probably stick with what you have. I don't like Conforto so much but I like him compared to Ortiz and Santana. Ortiz finished hot but that guy straight up could not get around on lefties for the first half of 2015.

Edit:
And since we're doing keepers, I have to keep three hitters and three pitchers, a bunch of my keeper contracts expired (three years max). Waiver players are last round picks. 7x7 H2H with H & TB and L ( :barf:

) and K/BB

Khris Davis, 19
Rougned Odor, W
Kevin Pillar, W
Anthony Rendon, 22 (last year)
Anthony Rizzo, 7 (last year)
Miguel Sano, W
Kyle Schwarber, W

Adam Conley, W
Patrick Corbin, W
Kevin Jepsen, W
Francisco Liriano, 13
Carlos Martinez, W
Andrew Miller, W
Matt Moore, W
Daniel Norris, 21
Vidal Nuno, W
Jake Odorizzi, 21
Carson Smith, W
Drew Smyly, 13
Marcus Stroman, W

Bold is what I'm thinking now, but I haven't done much other than from the gut. I, too, just stream pitchers off the wire.

I'll just redraft Smyly anyway because I just can't quit him.

Spoeank fucked around with this message at 06:24 on Jan 19, 2016

# ¿ Jan 19, 2016 06:07

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Yahoo opens in 2 days

:fap:

# ¿ Jan 27, 2016 06:50

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

ESPN's keeper picks just get skimmed off the top and at least last season there was literally no way to fix it.

Retarded as all hell.

# ¿ Feb 2, 2016 00:17

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Sano Bros! :hfive:

# ¿ Feb 3, 2016 20:26

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Min. 300 PA

:getin:

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# ¿ Feb 4, 2016 00:15

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

DYNASTY poo poo

Year 1 was last year and didn't think it would see a second year so I went all in & won it. My young guys are iffy. Bold means definitely in. Strikethrough means definitely out.

5x5 with SV+H instead of SV, keep 20, 12 team
C - Matt Wieters, Stephen Vogt
1B - Paul Goldschmidt, Brandon Belt
2B - ~~Arismendy Alcantara~~
3B - Josh Donaldson, Luis Valbuena
SS - Xander Bogaerts
OF - AJ Pollock, Gregory Polanco, Billy Hamilton, Steven Souza, Michael A. Taylor, Oswaldo Arcia

SP - Madison Bumgarner, Jordan Zimmermann, Carlos Martinez, Yordano Ventura, Drew Smyly, Tanner Roark, Mark Appel, Jameson Taillon

RP - Mark Melancon, Ken Giles, Dellin Betances, ~~Joakim Soria~~, Carson Smith, Will Harris, Pedro Strop, Sergio Romo, ~~John Axford~~

Trying to figure out the last 3. I have to keep 20.

Thinking Smyly, Roark and one of Appel & Taillon.

I just can't quit Drew Smyly :swoon:

# ¿ Feb 4, 2016 20:46

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

I'd reply with just an image of The Bat Flip

# ¿ Feb 10, 2016 02:32

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Holy poo poo your Cardinals fandom is shining through. Piscotty and Grichuk as literally 1/6 of all your offensive players drafted and Wong/Carpenter on top of that.

Also Anthony DeSclafani: noted garbageman pitcher.

I LOVE Ian Kennedy and Michael Pineda this year though. Puig and Votto will be value picks. Brantley is a nice shrewd move and will be back right around the time you get tired of Grichuk so that will work out well.

Pollock makes me itchy because roster resource has Jean Segura hitting in the two-hole, which means lots of GIDP and fielders choices knocking him off the base paths for Goldy. If they boot Segura, I really like Peralta and Beef Welington (who I would take a shot on over Wilson Ramos) which means the Pollock pick will work out.

# ¿ Feb 10, 2016 08:17

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Samardzija is going from one of the worst defenses to one of the best and oh yeah AT&T Park. People get mad that he isn't an ace but he will definitely be better than last year.

How good that is remains to be seen, but he will definitely be better than last year just by default.

# ¿ Feb 11, 2016 22:53

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Jeff Samardzija, in a stat he is complete control of that is a good indicator of production, and in which is usually elite

K-BB%
2012 (12th)
2013 (24th)
2014 (15th)
2015 (46th)

~*~2015 cratering not withstanding~*~

There are a couple things which could explain why he took a step back last year though:
LOB%
2011 75%
2012 73%
2013 71.7%
2014 73.2%
2015 67.2%

Which can be attributed to:

And this is his 2016:

Also his groundball percentage went way, way down, which is probably because for some goddamned reason, Samardzija used his cutter twice as much as he did in any other season despite it being his worst pitch by far. Dave Righetti and Buster Posey won't let that poo poo happen.

That having been said based on his FantasyPros ADP (SP 46), I'd rather have Jose Quintana*, Drew Smyly*, Yordano Ventura or Patrick Corbin*

*I can't quit you, losers

# ¿ Feb 12, 2016 06:22

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

FYI Salvy Perez gon' die so keep an eye out for a second catcher. I like Beef Wellington this year.

# ¿ Feb 25, 2016 06:03

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Kendrick is kind of an aging JAG with good average now. If you wanna take a stab at Story (assuming Kendrick is a bench bat) then I'd say go for it.

Also you calling it rotis instead of roto is endearing for some reason.

# ¿ Mar 4, 2016 03:36

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Fangraphs Sleeper and the Bust is probably the top one

CBS Fantasy Baseball Today & ESPN Fantasy Focus are alright.

Flags Fly Forever (BP) is a little rough but still gives some good info.

# ¿ Mar 13, 2016 20:13

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

If Moreland's ABs go up his production won't. He's not very good against lefties & his missing PAs are mostly from platooning.

# ¿ Mar 17, 2016 04:58

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

If you use phrases like I think or I feel it's not trade rape.

# ¿ Mar 17, 2016 17:46

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Doltos posted:

Im doing another standard scoring yahoopro20 but it's h2h. How different is the strategy vs roto? Do I draft more pitchers earlier?

I punt stolen bases and use a bunch of moves to churn pitchers during the season.

# ¿ Mar 21, 2016 00:14

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Doltos posted:

So just go for consistent contributors for batting and pick up decent pitchers plus have room to stream pitchers?

I would be wary of streaming, which is why I said churn. A blow up start can kill you for ERA & WHIP for the week because you're working with a much smaller set of numbers.

Also get a Dellin Betances type to just plug in to drive down your ERA/WHIP since there's no innings cap.

# ¿ Mar 21, 2016 00:41

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

I think K% and BB% for hitters too, but those stabilize at a fairly low number of pitched seen, I think.

# ¿ Mar 21, 2016 17:23

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Going 6-4 and not targeting HR/R/RBI :eyepop:

I'm curious to see how this works out.

# ¿ Mar 24, 2016 05:11

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Schweinhund posted:

I've been thinking of doing this for years but finally did it this year. I got a screen cap program (AutoScreenCap) and had it take a screenshot every 10 seconds while I was doing my draft. Now if I want to trade any of my players I can go back and see who was bidding on them since they're likely to have interest

Never underestimate the gooniness of goons :lol:

Also in the auction league, I accidentally bid on Will Smith while punting saves and lit that cash on fire :hellyeah:

# ¿ Mar 28, 2016 05:21

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Kennedy is also playing in front of one of the best defenses in baseball in a poo poo rear end offensive division and Gausman plays in a division with four bandboxes.

(I really like Ian Kennedy this year because he's basically free)

# ¿ Mar 29, 2016 02:42

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

I would take Salvy and Steel Angel 2k for Cole and Robertson I dunno

# ¿ Apr 1, 2016 05:13

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Follow @Closernews, set it up for push notifications, profit.

# ¿ Apr 1, 2016 17:40

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Rand alPaul posted:

I get very few messages, too, but I really dislike the person that lets it expire on their own instead of just rejecting it the first chance they get.

This has actually become the move in my long time league if you make a really lovely offer. It's psychological warfare after the 4th or 5th day because the person who offered it has to follow up on their lovely offer or realize what has happened and retract the offer themselves.

I go one step further and do a bunch of add/drops so the person knows I've seen it

# ¿ Apr 2, 2016 04:43

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Dandy Kaiser posted:

i'm probably the biggest marcus stroman fanboy in fantasy baseball

Dandy I love you and all but I will loving fight you for this title

# ¿ Apr 4, 2016 22:06

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

coronaball posted:

On Yahoo, you can't drop a player once he starts playing that day, and you also can't add a player directly to NA or DL without dropping someone else? Or am I missing something?

Those are both correct statements. You have to have the person on your active roster before they can be moved to NA or DL and that player cannot be edited if they are in your active lineup and their game starts.

# ¿ Apr 5, 2016 00:14

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Abel Wingnut posted:

bench richards vs arrieta? he'll rack up some K, but i have a hard time seeing him get the win. qs...maybe?

This is the decision you worry about in like 5 or 6 months.

# ¿ Apr 5, 2016 02:14

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Dandy Kaiser posted:

https://vine.co/v/Mpu3Im1QdFm

I'm Eric Hosmer and Stroman's slider is your post

# ¿ Apr 5, 2016 04:03

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Murmur Twin posted:

Everyone said this Mike Trout character was good and yet he hasn't gotten me a hit yet - time to panic?

move him for Story while you can

# ¿ Apr 6, 2016 05:24

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

*checks dynasty roster*

*sees AJ Pollock and Josh Donaldson*

*cries himself to sleep*

# ¿ Apr 6, 2016 22:11

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Thanks Chavez, for blowing up Stroman's ERA :waycool:

Spoeank fucked around with this message at 02:47 on Apr 9, 2016

# ¿ Apr 9, 2016 02:35

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

if you didn't see Greinke's collapse coming a mile away

# ¿ Apr 10, 2016 05:24

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Rand alPaul posted:

What? He certainly wasn't going to top last year but a collapse was really unlikely. AZ has a better defense than Los Angeles and some extra home runs wouldn't hurt that much over 200 innings.

If you thought an 86.5% LOB% (career 74.9%), .229 BABIP (career .298), 7.3% HR/FB (career 9.2%) and a 0.84 WHIP (career 1.19) weren't going to come crashing back to earth moving to a bandbox then I don't know. Maybe I should have been more vocal about it but he was firmly on my do not draft list.

# ¿ Apr 10, 2016 05:51

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# ¿ Apr 28, 2024 19:48

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Rand alPaul posted:

Regression was expected. But collapse is an entirely other ballpark, I don't think anyone expected him to toss BP the first two outings. He was likely a steal at his ADP considering the klaxon alarms going off about Chase.

I don't know if SP8, 32 overall, ahead of Harvey, Fernandez, Cole, etc was a steal given the regression coming. Collapse is a bit harsh, and I can't claim to be clairvoyant and see him getting obliterated in his first two starts, but he did not represent a great value and his downside wasn't really baked into his ADP.

His ADP was basically "he can't be as good as last year, could he? No. Well... maybe? I don't know." I stay away from guys like that whose ADP tends to hedge against regression instead of hedging against a breakout.

# ¿ Apr 10, 2016 06:49

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Baseball 2016: Draft Mookie

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