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This thread is to discuss Cannabis legalization in the United States as it applies to elections. There is already a 250+ page thread in the main D&D forum, but I think that since we have an election forum, we might as well discuss the prospects for legalization as it specifically refers to the 2016 elections. Further questions about states that might legalize in the legislature, what the response of the federal government will be, or anything else, probably belong in the main thread. This thread also has a poll attached. Try to guess how many states will pass legalization initiatives in 2016! If you really want to, toxxing is allowed (but not encouraged). You can specify which states you think will legalize in your post. This thread is also for legalization, as opposed to decriminalization or medical usage. Marijuana legalization seems to depend on two things: whether the state is culturally friendly to Cannabis, and whether it has a strong program of direct initiative elections. The Western United States, which has a strong history of both, has been at the forefront of the legalization effort. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initiatives_and_referendums_in_the_United_States#Types_of_initiatives_and_referendums Describes the states where directly changing the laws is possible, while https://ballotpedia.org/Marijuana_on_the_ballot#tab=By_year Gives a history of legalization measures and a list of 2016's measures (which might be added to)
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Dec 17, 2015 06:55
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My own vote is for three states. I think one of those states, and of course the most important for the country at large, will be California. I also think Montana will, and then one of Maine, Massachusetts, Nevada or New Mexico. I think that all four of those states have less than a 50% chance of passing a legalization law individually, but that taken as a whole, one of them will pass. Montana I think has a little bit over 50% chance of passing, and California has a very good chance of passing...at least 75%. But a lot of it depends on how the laws are written, how the campaigns are run, and what demographic shows up to vote in this election.
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Dec 17, 2015 07:02
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weed becomes ultra-prohibited, all citizens must report for mandatory drug testing 5 days after the election and any with traces of thc in their system are imprisoned just long enough to load enough guns for the mass firing squad.
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Dec 17, 2015 08:15
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shiksa posted:weed becomes ultra-prohibited, all citizens must report for mandatory drug testing 5 days after the election and any with traces of thc in their system are imprisoned just long enough to load enough guns for the mass firing squad. Sorry I forgot to put negative numbers in my poll.
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Dec 17, 2015 08:50
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I had no idea legalization is on the ballot in thirteen states next year, that's incredible. The only obvious "no" votes I see coming are Mississippi and Arkansas, all the rest are either shoe-ins like California or on the fence like Montana, Arizona and Missouri. Dunno how the initiatives in the Northeast will shake out. Anyone think the Democrats will adopt legalization into their platform at the convention?
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Dec 17, 2015 19:40
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Aliquid posted:Anyone think the Democrats will adopt legalization into their platform at the convention? No. Also I'd be surprised if any states, let alone California is a "shoe-in". The Medical Marijuana industry has a vested interest in keeping recreational marijuana illegal. It's big business and monopolies are good for them.
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Dec 17, 2015 19:59
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Aliquid posted:I had no idea legalization is on the ballot in thirteen states next year, that's incredible. The only obvious "no" votes I see coming are Mississippi and Arkansas, all the rest are either shoe-ins like California or on the fence like Montana, Arizona and Missouri. Dunno how the initiatives in the Northeast will shake out. Well, I don't know how it works in each state, but they might not actually make it to the ballot. In some states, I think that ballot measures can be dismissed if they aren't written in proper legal language or whatever.
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Dec 17, 2015 20:12
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glowing-fish posted:My own vote is for three states. Yeah, there's a very very remote chance MA doesn't at this point. Their proposed bill is a bit like they do it in CO with a commission to determine taxes like they would for liquor, and there's a broad base of support.
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Dec 17, 2015 20:22
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Aliquid posted:I had no idea legalization is on the ballot in thirteen states next year, that's incredible. The only obvious "no" votes I see coming are Mississippi and Arkansas, all the rest are either shoe-ins like California or on the fence like Montana, Arizona and Missouri. Dunno how the initiatives in the Northeast will shake out. There is zero chance of legalization being on the ballot in Missouri in 2016. Show Me Cannabis's polling found that the votes simply weren't there, so they abandoned full legalization in favor of medical for 2016. It's still up in the air whether we'll be a medical state or a "medical" state.
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Dec 17, 2015 20:33
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Gobbeldygook posted:There is zero chance of legalization being on the ballot in Missouri in 2016. Show Me Cannabis's polling found that the votes simply weren't there, so they abandoned full legalization in favor of medical for 2016. It's still up in the air whether we'll be a medical state or a "medical" state. Haha dang, I was involved with them when they absorbed some of the organization from Kansas when they realized Kansas wouldn't happen.
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Dec 17, 2015 20:39
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WugLyfe posted:Yeah, there's a very very remote chance MA doesn't at this point. Their proposed bill is a bit like they do it in CO with a commission to determine taxes like they would for liquor, and there's a broad base of support. I don't know enough about MA, or any of the East Coast. From what I understand, even though New England is politically liberal, it has a more conservative attitude about Cannabis than places on the West Coast. Also, medical only was legalized in MA in 2012, and there has usually been a long gap between medical legalization and total legalization. Even in states where that is true, cannabis legalization hasn't passed easily. So my own background makes me think MA doesn't have an overwhelming chance of legalizing. But I guess we will see!
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Dec 17, 2015 20:51
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New England isn't politically liberal, they just vote Democrat.
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Dec 17, 2015 22:14
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Powercrazy posted:No. Yeah but We Teh People are pretty butthurt about a bunch of podunk states getting to go first so medical is gonna have to get on board or get out of the way this time.
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Dec 17, 2015 22:15
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Maine is pretty libertarian when it comes to pot, but the legalization campaign here is also pretty incompetent.
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Dec 17, 2015 23:56
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It's really, really good in MA. It'll pass and I'm pretty willing to bet the bank in that. Lots of city governments have blocked dispensaries and the taxation thereof, so the Boston metro area is pretty partisan pro-weed.
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Dec 18, 2015 00:01
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There's been talk of Vermont legalizing it through their legislature. Anyone know the status of that?
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Dec 18, 2015 02:01
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WugLyfe posted:It's really, really good in MA. So far, the most support a legalization measure has gotten was 56% of the vote. Colorado, Washington, Alaska and Oregon all passed legalization with 53-56% of the vote. And that was after having medical Cannabis legal for over ten years. Massachusetts did pass medical marijuana by a pretty large margin, but it has only been four years. I don't think any state is a shoe-in.
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Dec 18, 2015 02:26
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starry skies above posted:There's been talk of Vermont legalizing it through their legislature. Anyone know the status of that? Next month! http://timesargus.com/article/20151215/NEWS03/151219761 quote:MONTPELIER — Legislation to be introduced next month when lawmakers return to the State House would allow those 21 and older to grow and possess marijuana for recreational use as early as July. Weird that edibles won't be allowed, but I won't shed a tear because gently caress edibles. The most noteworthy part of the plan is that it lets you set up actual places to smoke, which is absent from all existing legal/medical states iirc Do any ballot measures next year allow for public smoking?
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Dec 18, 2015 02:28
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glowing-fish posted:So far, the most support a legalization measure has gotten was 56% of the vote. Colorado, Washington, Alaska and Oregon all passed legalization with 53-56% of the vote. And that was after having medical Cannabis legal for over ten years. Massachusetts did pass medical marijuana by a pretty large margin, but it has only been four years. I don't think any state is a shoe-in. The state hosed up the mmj thing pretty bad by allowing towns to block dispensaries without a vote, and there's a lot of anger surrounding it. Boston doesn't even have a dispensary. I will be absolutely shocked if MA fails to pass their initiative.
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Dec 18, 2015 02:33
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Nah, eating weed is the most efficient way to consume it, albeit not the most sociable. I can see a lot of people preferring to get high off of THC infused food items than smoking. It's weird that they'd ban edibles but we can thank the Kevin Sabet's of this world traveling the country with pictures of edibles from Colorado and saying "these are aimed at children, this is the face of Big Marijuana." This is a non-issue though since people can just make edible weed from their own supply.
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Dec 18, 2015 02:36
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I think the issue is it's tough to titrate edibles and also that the FDA can't do poo poo to ensure their safety. Tincture? Sure. But edibles are super tough.
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Dec 18, 2015 03:08
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WugLyfe posted:I think the issue is it's tough to titrate edibles and also that the FDA can't do poo poo to ensure their safety. That's the real reason, but I like to think a couple Vermont legislators had a bad time on one too many cookies.
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Dec 18, 2015 03:23
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That is a better mental image haha
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Dec 18, 2015 03:52
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yeah it's a lot easier for people with no tolerance to gently caress themselves up on edibles than on smoking i think it's interesting that the laws for alcohol and tobacco basically assume that you have a built-up tolerance but the marijuana laws don't. it tells us what we already know, that our legislators are mostly ignorant of this particular substance i think everybody should be sent a government-issued dab rig and butane torch and be forced to smoke a gram of shatter a day from the age of 3
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Dec 18, 2015 03:58
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Assuming they get it on the ballot in Maine it will almost certainly pass. Support is polling very highly there and many cities have already passed local legalization measures, albeit non binding ones. The good news is the two competing legalization initiatives have merged and are working together now. Nevada is hard to tell. Very red state, but it's pretty libertarian and has a long history of legalizing and taxing sin industries which allows its citizens to enjoy one of the lowest tax burdens in the nation. We already saw libertarian red state Alaska legalize last year, and I doubt their chances of passing were any better than they are currently are in Nevada. I don't know much about the politics on the ground in Massachusetts but the state has seen real movement over the last few years in regards to pot reform, as has most of New England. Only New Hampshire has not decriminalized yet. California, that is the real poo poo show. There are over a half dozen competing legalization initiatives, each with its own set of (sometimes crazy) regulations and its passage will likely come down to whether or not the bill favors established medical industry players in the transition to recreational shops. If they do it Colorado style and give the medical dispensaries an easy way to transition or expand to retail operations it will likely find broad support with the established gray market. If it's a free for all, who the hell knows. Also expect heavy opposition from the private prison industry in the state. Those are the major four contenders at the voting box for 2016, but a few others may find it on their ballot as well. New Hampshire and Vermont are both good prospects for legalization via legislature before the election. fat bossy gerbil has issued a correction as of 08:56 on Dec 18, 2015 |
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Dec 18, 2015 08:49
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As long as pharmaceutical and prison companies make money with weed illegal, it will continue to be illegal on a national level. The best hope is that every state without significant pharmaceutical and prison constituents legalizes, and national prohibition no longer becomes sustainable. Neither major party will make legalization part of their platform or promise until there's money in it.
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Dec 18, 2015 09:09
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Another question specifically about legalization measures is how they will effect other races, and whether people backing either party will want them on the ballot because they will attract Democratic or Republican voters. So a Republican SOS might want such a measure, because it will attract older, conservative voters to vote against it, and also to vote for conservative candidate. A Democratic SOS would want the opposite effect. In either case, they might publicly speak out against the measure but still want it on the ballot. I personally think this will have a negligible effect. Most states aren't swing states, and it won't really matter to Clinton's electoral hopes in California whether a 100,000 extra young people show up to vote for weed and also vote for her. In swing states, there is a good chance that the measure will balance out both the type of voters it attracts, and who they go on to vote for. And there aren't that many swing states that will probably be voting on such measures this year: Nevada is the only one where I would say it might make a difference.
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Dec 18, 2015 20:02
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Weed the people  But seriously, zero states unfortunately. the electorate is becoming more conservative on drugs, because musicians & hollywood flaunt it. *lights up in the Senate chamber*
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Dec 18, 2015 20:35
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Nonsense posted:
what
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Dec 18, 2015 20:42
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where are the medical referenda likely to be held? i think there's supposed to be one (or two) in michigan, which is vaguely on the edge of presidential competitiveness. montana could in theory go democratic in a wave year, and perhaps in that scenario a marijuana referendum could help and then of course there are all the house races and various senate races to consider the effects of turnout on. perhaps some house seats will flip based on california's weed turnout - or maybe conservative districts will produce extra anti-weed voters, and liberal districts vice versa, and little will change on aggregate. even state-level legislative races, maybe. it'll be interesting to consider in nine or ten months when things start to come together
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Dec 19, 2015 00:37
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oystertoadfish posted:where are the medical referenda likely to be held? i think there's supposed to be one (or two) in michigan, which is vaguely on the edge of presidential competitiveness. montana could in theory go democratic in a wave year, and perhaps in that scenario a marijuana referendum could help Michigan and Montana already have medical marijuana unless I misinterpreted your post.
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Dec 19, 2015 00:57
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Dmitri-9 posted:Michigan and Montana already have medical marijuana unless I misinterpreted your post. no, i confused things. the campaigns i'm thinking of in those states, as the link from the first post makes clear, are the legalization campaigns. thanks
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Dec 19, 2015 01:10
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WugLyfe posted:It's really, really good in MA. MA will absolutely pass I think, I'm more concerned about the state enforcing a de facto ban on selling weed by instituting standards that are impossible to meet. They basically did that to block dispensaries for medicinal marijuana. Until very recently you would need to get a provisional license for medical cannibis in Maine and drive all the way to Portland if you want to get to a dispensary (and believe me, there are a lot of steps to this whole process). Don't get me wrong, Portland is a pretty nice place to visit but having to take a two hour drive both ways every time I need to hit up a dispensary can be a real pain. I'm out of the loop on the new laws being proposed, though. Am I just being paranoid here?
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Dec 19, 2015 15:41
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It's going nowhere in Arkansas. It came pretty close in 2012 (51/49) but since then the entire state government has flipped over to hardcore Republican wackjobs and the attorney general won't even let it back on the ballot because "the title is too ambiguous".
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Dec 19, 2015 21:15
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Can someone give more details on the California props?
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Dec 20, 2015 04:27
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I've noticed that the distribution of votes in the poll is not a Bell Curve. There is one cluster around 2 and 3, and then a lot of votes for 5+. I don't know, but I am guessing that legalization advocates might be more optimistic than people who follow US elections. One thing that I've noticed about elections is that the "underlying beliefs" of the electorate are don't always reflect what will happen. I think that in many of the states, there is underlying support, but I don't think that will transform into an electoral victory in every state.
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Dec 22, 2015 23:35
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glowing-fish posted:I've noticed that the distribution of votes in the poll is not a Bell Curve. There is one cluster around 2 and 3, and then a lot of votes for 5+. You wouldn't really expect a bell curve here, the 5+ option includes everything from 5 to 20 states or however many are actually having initiatives so it would include the summed values of the entire right tail. But yeah its probably just people being optimistic.
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Dec 26, 2015 02:17
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It's way too early to predict, because we don't have the final list of states with referenda. Even if you start out with Vermont as a gimme, 5 would be Maine, Massachusetts, California, and (most likely) Nevada. What would 6 be, Arizona? 4 is optimistic but hardly out of reality. 5 is difficult, but possible (Nevada, of all places, wouldn't want to be one of the few states in the West that DIDN'T have legal pot). 6 is pushing it.
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Dec 26, 2015 02:31
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the whole country will legalize under the victorious banner of Snoop Lion
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Dec 26, 2015 03:03
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Patter Song posted:It's way too early to predict, because we don't have the final list of states with referenda. Even if you start out with Vermont as a gimme, 5 would be Maine, Massachusetts, California, and (most likely) Nevada. What would 6 be, Arizona? Florida, Michigan, Montana, New Mexico. 2016 could end up being a favorable electorate and in a landslide D year I give all four good chances. Florida's the toughest because of the 60% threshold. In fact, I think all four of these states are more likely than Arizona.
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Dec 26, 2015 04:26
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