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COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


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COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Computer Serf posted:

If you think bitcoin is going to be worthless you can actually bet against it though margin trading so...

Hello fellow EVE player.

It's actually called arbitrage, unless you're meaning some kind of short instrument.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Solice Kirsk posted:

Gonna play devil's advocate and say that if we're basing Bitcoins performance as a long term investment (like most serious minded investors do) then even with these dips it's still well ahead. I wouldn't buy them even with someone else's money, mind you, but over a few years time they have increased in value....if not liquidity.

The problem is so many exchanges and whatnot have either been shut down or robbed or stole from their customers outright so unless you just have your own secure wallet (and kept the passwords for it for years) odds are good your BTC stash would have disappeared at some point between now and the last several years.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


quote:

"I left a broken society to live in a traditional one," he wrote in January 2017.

lmao what a loving idiot.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Jeffrey of YOSPOS posted:

this is the refrain of goons who made 100% wrong predictions over and over for years fleetingly trying to hold on to the thought that maybe they didn't miss out because of their "lmfao the money is computer" groupthink

Similarly this is the logic of a person who won the lotto and is now seriously advising everyone they know to sell all their holdings and buy lotto tickets.

It isn't a good investment now and it wasn't a good investment then. Just because some people made tons of money doesn't change the risk analysis.

Where are all the news stories from the absolute poo poo tons of internet people going "I'm saving up every last BTC I mine I have thousands now" from back in the day who are now super rich? There's some puff pieces here and there but in general you don't see very many of those do you? I wonder why.

e: Final note: if a poo poo ton of people did get rich the IRS would be all over them and that hasn't happened either.

COMRADES fucked around with this message at 19:03 on Jul 26, 2017

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


e: q is not e

ee: Might as well use the post:

Burt Sexual posted:

Wait, I was told itt that bitcoins are not an investment, but currency.

Bitcoins are a commodity.

COMRADES fucked around with this message at 19:08 on Jul 26, 2017

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Blockchain is the new buzzword.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


HebrewCoin would have been better.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

I'm telling you you're loving stupid and probably shouldn't tell other people how to invest or make money given that this thing you keep calling BS on keeps appreciating, have you considered that?

Have you considered that something might be gaining in value and yet still be not worth it when a risk analysis is done?

I mean, just buy Defense/Aerospace ETFs. Yeah you won't get TO THE MOON returns but you won't be in any danger if your shares all being stolen one day and/or crashing 10%-50% in a day based on the whims of the Chinese government.

Ham Sandwiches posted:

Every single person that said that bitcoins were a scam, had no inherent value, that they were going to collapse, that the exchanges were fake, that you'd lose money mining them, and that it's used for drug transactions / money laundering is as wrong as it is possible to be wrong while still alive

It's impressive that if you wanted to find the world's biggest idiots, empirically, you simply need go back over the past 5-6 years and find everyone that bravely warned people against Buttcoins while acting smug about how right they are. Some of them are still posting in this thread, which owns.

This is only true if no one ever lost a BTC to those hacks/scams which is deffo not true.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

No, people are free to speculate with their money how they wish. You were sitting there doomsaying it months ago when it was $2500. On what basis did you warn people off this thing that has gotten more liquidity, more trading, more funds, more nation state support, and more valuation the whole time? Because it keeps being proven wrong.

I wasn't 'doomsaying.' My position is and always has been this is a speculative commodity that someone will be left holding the bag on when the music stops.

Ham Sandwiches posted:

Like the fact that you are wrong and unable to qualify risk properly - which is 100% empirically true, shouldn't affect other people negatively. Why keep giving out garbage advice that keeps turning out wrong? When do you intend to stop giving out advice that turns out untrue every single time?

At the risk of sounding like a pretentious douchebag... my risk analysis is not wrong and I made a poo poo ton of money this last year without risking the entirety of my principal thanks.

Also

quote:

more nation state support,

lol bullshit

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Jeffrey of YOSPOS posted:

But it is evidence that they're wrong, and when it happens every year for a decade, wrongness seems to be the most likely outcome.

No, people are just misinterpreting and going with huge numbers to make a rhetorical point. Even a 1-5% risk of total loss is too much risk for most people's portfolios. What's more, this kind of "but it isn't risky at all!' rhetoric encourages people to put more than they can afford to lose into this which is a huge mistake even with regular investments.

And again we're just looking at the strict dollar value of the BTC. Well, I had 10 BTC years ago. They were cheap so why not gently caress it right? I don't have them anymore, because the exchange got 'hacked.' So I'm not really sitting pretty am I?

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

Your risk analysis is stupid poo poo that was claiming you knew it was a scam, you weren't even willing to call it a commodity (BECAUSE NO INHERENT VALUE) last time, but here it is lmao this suddenly woke nuanced opinion that wasn't there a few months ago at all?? how did it appear?? a bitcoin mystery


I mean do you want me to dig up Moridin posts from years ago calling it exactly a commodity? Inherent value has nothing to do with it.

I specifically remember arguing with people about it not being a viable currency because no one will (then or ever imo) let you pay taxes with it thus it will always be an exchange commodity.


quote:

Just amazing imagine doing a risk analysis, calling bullshit, being wrong, and declaring yourself good at risk analysis. Well folks wrap it up. With that standard this guy will never be bad at analyzing risk, like when he warns people off an asset that appreciates 50%+ in a few months.

Putting your money on red results in an almost 2x gain but that doesn't mean it is chill and good to let it ride when you win or advise others to do the same.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

Just amazing imagine doing a risk analysis, calling bullshit, being wrong, and declaring yourself good at risk analysis. Well folks wrap it up. With that standard this guy will never be bad at analyzing risk, like when he warns people off an asset that appreciates 50%+ in a few months.

And you're continually ignoring the fact that this investment carries the risk of total loss so not nearly every (or even the majority I suspect) of BTC holders that bought in years ago still have their BTC.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Waffle House posted:

My coworker's Android phone got hacked and they 2FA'd his wallet away from him. I think he only lost like $~100 of mined coins, but he has no recourse here yeah?

No. Another issue with this 'investment.'

Ham Sandwiches posted:

Yeah and what if like, he got mugged or lost his wallet containing $100, what happens then?

Clearly cash is loving unreliable get rid of it and don't let anyone use it with you / around you.

Except we're not talking about cash you dick and your real investments are insured so in the event of a hack you're not going to lose your portfolio.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Stefan Prodan posted:

Like everything you're saying could be said about any penny stock that actually went up a ton (I don't know enough about penny stocks to name one but I'm sure that at least one has taken off) and you could post HAHAH YOU GUYS WERE ALL WRONG I KNEW THIS WAS GONNA BE GOOD FROM THE BEGINNING but that doesn't make it a good investment just because it went up

Yeah

Ham Sandwiches posted:

Lmao imagine being this loving wrong, spending months going "HOW MANY DO YOU OWN" and now after being proven wrong retreating to "SO HOW MANY DID YOU BUY!!!"

Like I don't know, do you feel embarassed? Imagine the morons that claimed Columbus would sail off the edge of the earth. That's literally you dude. Doesn't that concern you?

You know, I wasn't going to say anything because I don't like being a pretentious prick like this but you literally have no idea what you're talking about and are repeating nearly every dumbfuck fallacy people are warned off against when starting any kind of finance education. Past performance is 0 indicator of future performance and your entire argument here hinges on past performance.

You've provided no incentive or reason or anything for BTC to continue to increase in price except for "buy in because it'll keep going up!" Well poo poo that's a penny stock scam and when even your shoe shine boy tells you to buy in you probably shouldn't.

I know someone in real life who was suckered in by someone like you, leveraged themselves too much, and are now hosed because they lost all their BTC in a hack. Get bent and stop pretending like this is a sure thing because you can and will cause damage to people who believe you.

And you have the nerve to call our advice garbage.

e: In the interest of fairness I also know someone irl who made $20k on BTC. It's a crapshoot.

COMRADES fucked around with this message at 20:44 on Oct 5, 2017

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


So post your fat gains then or are you just angry because you would have bought but didn't on SA's advice?

CassandraZara posted:

It's often compared to the Wild West, like the wild west of currency or some poo poo like that. And it's true. Some people got rich on gold mines or a saloon or whatever. And a lot of people ended up robbed, or dead, or forced into basically indentured servitude. It's not an unfair comparison.

Sure or you could call this typical penny stock behavior because that's exactly what it is. There is no underlying value and it is totally ballooned up.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

I don't know that it's going up, and I'm telling you that the people that know it's going down down are wrong, because none of us can see the future but they are sure that they can.

Well if that's what you got out of "this isn't good as far as risk analysis is concerned" then you really are just mad about nothing.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

It's interesting to watch people retreat to this.

My gains are disagreeing with everyone that said it was a scam or risky, like yourself, last time around we had this discussion. You are emprically wrong about the world, unable to make useful predictions, and anyone that listens to your advice will be diminished financially.

I think that's hilarious and plan to keep revisiting this over time, because I find it very funny the claims that were thrown around and luckily we have this thread and last thread around to refer back to!

You're throwing words like empirically around and refusing to post any kind of empirical evidence when prompted so

Whatever it's kind of just funny watching the occasional goon declare they know everything then engage in every single fallacy retail traders engage in. Chart me some patterns next? I heard it is forming a double top!!!

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

Yeah except the only posts on the topic for about 5+ years on these very forums were about how dumb you were to ever entertain anything to do with buttcoins, this thing you're posting right here is the very woke BTC are over 3000 and staying there view that has been established past month or so

And some people made a lot of money and some people lost it all.

If I told you "bet everything you have today and in 5-10 years you might be a millionaire or totally broke" you'd say yeah that's a good risk to take?

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

Empirically, an asset that was $2500 when you warned people away from it due to sound Risk analysis, is now over $4000 with much higher volume, meaning your advice was factually incorrect unless you are predicting some imminent disaster you believe is about to occur?

lmao you have no idea what you're talking about it's great.

Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

So yeah dude the guys that were busy laughing about MT GOX I'm just curious their take and how they weren't wrong

OMG do you even know what MTGOX stands for it

it's not even the right kind of cards.. not even magic cards... magic the gathering ONLINE cards ahahahahaha

the wrong kind of magic cards

quote:

Mt. Gox was a bitcoin exchange based in Shibuya, Tokyo, Japan.[1] Launched in July 2010, by 2013 and into 2014 it was handling over 70% of all bitcoin transactions worldwide, as the largest bitcoin intermediary and the world's leading bitcoin exchange.[2][3][4][5]

In February 2014, Mt. Gox suspended trading, closed its website and exchange service, and filed for bankruptcy protection from creditors.[6][7] In April 2014, the company began liquidation proceedings.[8]

Mt. Gox announced that approximately 850,000 bitcoins belonging to customers and the company were missing and likely stolen, an amount valued at more than $450 million at the time.[9][10] Although 200,000 bitcoins have since been "found", the reason(s) for the disappearance—theft, fraud, mismanagement, or a combination of these—were initially unclear. New evidence presented in April 2015 by Tokyo security company WizSec led them to conclude that "most or all of the missing bitcoins were stolen straight out of the Mt. Gox hot wallet over time, beginning in late 2011."[11][12]

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

I'm genuinely interested from warning me away to Bitcoins to warning me towards them, people seem to feel very very very strongly about what I do with my money. Can you explain to me why?

You literally just linked an Exchange that "lost" all their customer's holdings lmao.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

It's not that laughing at Mt Gox was wrong or that the theft was inevitable growing pains of taking something completely fake and having people use it for real

It's that this guy is smarter than fedora redditors and makes sound financial investments in assets that have intrinsic worth

*totally ignores whole new financial system, you can't fool this guy, spends years warning people off of it, is wrong every step of the way, congratulates self for amazing predictions*

Well idk what you're upset about because all I'm saying as far as risk analysis goes that it is far from a sure thing and imo there are better things to put your money into.

The fact that an exchange which handled 70% of trading volume stole all their customer's wallets is exactly what I'm talking about. If you ignored us 5 years ago and loaded up on BTC, you would have lost it all more likely than not.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

I'm saying that your Expert Risk Analysis identified exchange collapse as a Risk based on the past collapse of MT GOX (while claiming past performance is irrelevant),

My risk analysis identified systemic issues like that back when BTC was originally a Thing so don't put words in my mouth thanks. "Am I protected if the worst happens?" is a basic question to be asked in any endeavor.

Currently there is no regulation so as far as I'm concerned the exchanges are still suspect, but alright just keep it in a private wallet and don't get hacked. You're still exposed to tons of other factors like the Chinese government deciding to crack down on it or competing cryptocurrencies or several other things.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


And what happens the next time China does something?

Ham Sandwiches posted:

This is 10000% incompatible with your past advice warning people to stay the gently caress away at all costs because it's a scam with no inherent value only used for money laundering!!!!!

How? That's still true.

That's my entire point: there is nothing propping up the value of these things thus high risk.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


CassandraZara posted:

Even if it's only used for money laundering, it has value.

That's pretty drat tenuous.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

I don't know, I don't have a crystall ball and neither do you.

YEAH

That's my point!!! So why the gently caress would I buy BTC right now which may or may not crater at any moment instead of XAR which has returned 42% in the last year to date with no risk at all of the government deciding one day to outlaw the military industry?

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

And more and more countries ... are accepting them as payment.

Citation needed.

Nowhere in the world can you pay your taxes with BTC. In fact your BTC plays result in a USD tax obligation (assuming you are in the USA).

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

Do whatever you want, don't tell other people that BTC is a scam as if you have some way of loving knowing that.

Some loving way of knowing that........ like it is totally run by Chinese mining conglomerates and every single major exchange has been hacked/shut down/robbed?

Ham Sandwiches posted:

Like, go ahead and bet on XAR.

Don't go and talk about how much better it is than BTC as if you have some crystal ball because you don't know, you're just guessing and making your bet like anyone else.

It's better. hth.

The entire point of risk analysis is to hedge against lovely bets like you are making.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

Excellent and now with a bunch of history it becomes clear:

Ah so perhaps there was a period of anomalous trading???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

And then something happened that changed the trading activity????????????????????????????????????

And it settled into a new pattern???????????????????????????????????????????

What do you think?

I think you're super mad about this for unknown reasons and also it is funny how wrong you are.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

For those with the appetite for risk to speculate in emerging currencies, acting like warning them off speculative investments and steering them towards traditional ones is more sound is super dumb

I keep trying to explain to you that whatever good intentions you have just use them to gently caress up your own investments, don't spread the love

Emerging currencies lmao you don't even know what a currency is.

Ham Sandwiches posted:

What do you see in the chart, bro?

The same thing I see in tea leaves.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

Why pull this coy bullshit? What does the chart tell you, risk management expert, maybe try two sentences see if you can manage?

It means reading charts is for suckers and there is no useful information to be gleaned. Why are you so mad?

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

Anyway dude I'm sorry that you're so wrong and unable to predict valid investments seeing risks and ghosts and goblins where none exist. It must be a frightful experience.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

I thought it was loving stupid listening to lazy bitcoin jokes for a few years, I hated the totally fake way that people constructed a narrative of guarnateed loss and fedora redditors, this is the first opportunity to point out how loving wrong they were, and here we are

It really is just that you could have been a millionaire by now if not for goons is it?

I had that feel once or twice but it is a false mistress.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

No, the argument is that the claims about it being a bad investment / risky / no inherent value / used for money laundering are false, irrelevant, misleading, and people use outdated charts and stuff from years ago to perpetuate some idea that is not really holding up over time

They're not misleading and irrelevant just because you don't understand them and respond with anger when people try to explain.

David Heinrich posted:

In a sense, sure. It isn't at all my business what people do with their money, as long as that action is legal; currently, Bitcoin is, so who loving cares? However, it's immensely volatile and has no guarantee of return, security, or any worth. It's not investing, it's gambling. As financial advice goes "don't gamble" is a decent piece of it.

But past that, Hammy, the big thing here is that this has been explained to you. A lot. In several threads. Your rebuttal has never, ever been anything but "NUMBER GO UP" or "It's not your business what people do with their money I know a guy who made a bunch of cash playing roulette it's a great investment"

yup

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

Actually bro I wrote a big long post explaining why that chart is misleading, I suspect you either didn't read it or didn't understand it.

But I didn't post that chart or say anything about it really so what was misleading and irrelevant about what I said wrt "bad investment / risky / no inherent value?"

e: I think you're wrong about the chart anyway because nothing you said explains the massive drop off within the same chart unless they switched what the X-axis denotes mid chart.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

The idea that people should be excluded from investing or warned away from it because it's fundamentally risky and you wouldn't touch it is what I take issue with.

The fact that this supposedly prudent advice is being proven wrong from the increase in volume and trading and price - gets simply dismissed as "NUMBER GO UP." Come on, that's simplistic. The number is going up because the acceptance and confidence is going up. Are you unaware of that or being cute?

This investment may be too risky for you. Assigning pejorative terms like gambling and mocking people who choose to use it, while being sanctimonious about how right you are, and constantly being proven wrong over time - seems loving bizarre. Why do it?

Dude you literally do not know what you are talking about lmao

quote:

Come on, that's simplistic. The number is going up because the acceptance and confidence is going up. Are you unaware of that or being cute?

Number goes up because of more confidence and more confidence because number goes up because of more confidence and then the number goes up even more...


... and then at some point someone realizes "hey, tulips aren't loving worth this much" and everyone left holding the bag is hosed.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

The words I wrote out after the chart explained what was misleading and irrelevant about it. It takes a period where bitcoins were cheaper and there was high frequency trading in some exchanges in china. that got banned and so volume dropped hugely.

The thing is that activity was fake and an anomaly. It wasn't actually affecting the price of bitcoin.

After that activity stopped, in May, there has been 5 months where the valuation and total amt of money traded in Bitcoin has kept rising over time. That chart paints pretty much the complete opposite picture, so it's at odds with reality, and yet people keep posting it to laugh about Bitcoins.

I mean frankly nothing you're saying inspires confidence in something I'd be considering putting thousands of dollars into you know?

If 90% of the trading volume on the NYSE was fake and an anomaly that'd be a Huge Problem. That's why there are regulatory bodies like the SEC.

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COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

Do you understand that if you pick a period where there was some weird stuff happening and you measure everything that happened before and after and go "HA HA HOW loving STRANGE" it looks really weird

Well but has there ever been a period where there wasn't some weird stuff happening with BTC?

Ham Sandwiches posted:

There are times where the HFT algorithms do massively increase trading volume on stocks btw!!! On the real stock market! It's normal.

Do you understand that? We're just talking about the chart here and why it's misleading. For comparison, here is an accurate chart:

HFT algorithms aren't fake and anomalous trades though so maybe I'm not getting what you're putting down correctly?

Although moot point I guess because looks like according to your chart the volumes are totally different from the other and to be quite honest I'm not going to spend the time to verify why they say what they do and I'll just take your argument at face value.


Powershift posted:

When bitcoin dropped to $3k, they suddently found another $50m in their bank account and within a few hours there was 50,000 btc worth of trades and the price was back up to $3,600.

Ok see now this is a big red flag if true though. This is a huge reason why penny stocks are garbage; one player can manipulate the price heavily.

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