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khwarezm posted:You're being too vague here and I don't know why, you said they were basically the same when it came to execution rates but the point is they're not the same, from most figures I can dig up. It's nothing to do with Brownie points it's do with the fact that too many people have a kind naive view of what Iranian society is like. Even with somebody like Rouhani in charge at the moment, he came off the back of Ahmadinejad. As ridiculous as his demonization usually got in the west he was still a hardcore right-wing, religious populist and even now without the support of the Guardian Council he's a popular, influential figure in the country. I don't want to demonize Iran I'm just pointing out that I don't think the situation can be boiled down to a zealot government imposed over a population with totally different views, honestly a lot of Iran is very conservative in a way that's pretty in line with government policies. My point is generally, I don't think the headline execution rates are that different enough to balance the fact that Iran does have a more liberal culture (still not comparable to a Western country) and that the public does have some recourse versus the government even if it obviously isn't a liberal democracy. To be honest, there aren't really many functioning democracies left in the region period. If everything is relative, then Iranian society is more flexible despite its higher rate of executions by the state itself. The destabilization argument boils down to the fact that both sides are obviously locked in a Cold War situation with the requisite number of proxy wars and both are destabilizing the region for their own interests. I would argue though that Iran is more competent at it, especially since I don't think MbS really has a clue. I could easily say Saudi actions are equally worrying if not more chaotic. Also, I see the US backing the Saudis more of a danger since it since SA considerably more impunity. As for geopolitical mechanics go, I think in reality most foreign policy always boils down to realpolitik one way or another. I don't think we should buy into a fantasy that there are actually "good guys" but rather cynical actors that are pushing their own stakes. However, part of that realization, is that your "own side" also is just as cynical.
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Nov 9, 2017 15:32
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What's the reason behind ordering Saudis to leave Lebanon?
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Nov 9, 2017 15:41
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khwarezm posted:Yeah, but the Gulf states are also Uber rich and have a young, rapidly growing population too, not to mention tremendous social and political influence around the Middle East, especially so long as somewhere like Saudi Arabia controls the holy cities. Saudi holding Mecca amounts for a lot of goodwill, which they are rapidly pissing away with their rampant economic exploitation of Islams most holy site. Seriously when you look up from the vicinity of the loving kaaba and see a testament to the sheer wealth of gulf states crowding out space in an already packed area. Rigged Death Trap fucked around with this message at 15:52 on Nov 9, 2017 |
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Nov 9, 2017 15:46
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Congratulations to Yemen on “Worlds Biggest Famine”
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Nov 9, 2017 15:47
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Welp, time for a real war.
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Nov 9, 2017 15:54
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RandomPauI posted:What's the reason behind ordering Saudis to leave Lebanon? War.
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Nov 9, 2017 15:56
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I assume the timing is due to the fact it looks like the attempt to cut the SaA from Iraq has failed, and plan B is to attack Hezbollah directly while the Syrian Civil War is at least still going on. (That or it is saber rattling).
Ardennes fucked around with this message at 16:12 on Nov 9, 2017 |
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Nov 9, 2017 16:03
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cochise posted:War. https://twitter.com/SulomeAnderson/status/928424381876985856
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Nov 9, 2017 16:05
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Is this supposed to another GCC masterstroke or are they going to be tacitly backing some dumbass Israeli incursion? Because that's what all successful Saudi monarchs have done, start multiple wars and (more openly) support Israel. I'm sure the Salafists and the tribesman whose welfare gets cut off are going to love this poo poo.
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Nov 9, 2017 16:06
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I wouldn't bet on Russia staying out of it if Israel/Saudi Arabia somehow decide they're going to go all out to destroy Hezbollah. Hezbollah's been just as important for Assad's survival as Russia has been, so Russia would very much like to keep them in the game if possible. Obviously Iran would want to find ways to help them too, and Assad owes them bigtime. The Iraqi government would presumably face a lot of pressure to do something too. Israel could probably get away with a "mowing the grass" level confrontation without sparking that level of regional crisis, but it might not go as well for them as they'd like.
Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 16:20 on Nov 9, 2017 |
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Nov 9, 2017 16:18
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Can someone educate me on how Saudi Arabia going to war with Lebanon would even work logistically? As I'm looking on the world map I'm gradually realizing I know literally nothing about Jordan but this is still very confusing to me.
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Nov 9, 2017 16:20
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MiddleOne posted:Can someone educate me on how Saudi Arabia going to war with Lebanon would even work logistically? As I'm looking on the world map I'm gradually realizing I know literally nothing about Jordan but this is still very confusing to me. The US would probably have to be involved too if they want Jordan to grant access. Trump loves Saudi Arabia now though, so who knows. Israel going alone with rhetorical support from the GCC seems more likely though. Imagine the optics of Saudi and Israeli forces fighting on the same side to invade Lebanon. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 16:24 on Nov 9, 2017 |
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Nov 9, 2017 16:21
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MiddleOne posted:Can someone educate me on how Saudi Arabia going to war with Lebanon would even work logistically? As I'm looking on the world map I'm gradually realizing I know literally nothing about Jordan but this is still very confusing to me. Jordan will definitely want to stay out of anything, but Saudi could probably bully them into allowing transit and basing if they really feel strongly and want to cash in more of their dwindling chips.
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Nov 9, 2017 16:23
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Okay so, I am a real newbie to all this but can I pop down some of the local "players" and ask for people to correct my understanding of what is going on? So you have Syria. Which is a cluster-gently caress but one in which Assad is in charge backed by Russia. There are still levels of fighting going on and nothing is "settled" though. You also have Iran who dislikes Syria but hates Saudi Arabia. Both of them are fighting proxy wars because they hate each other and both would like to be the local potentate. Iran and Iraq are closer now than they have been for some time, and both dislike The Kurds who are currently split between Turkey, Iraq and Iran. ISIS has by now been reduced to a few scattered groups of people fleeing through open ground and trying desperately not to get butched by whoever catches them first. Saudi Arabia is currently at war with Iran (by proxy) and Yemen and Lebanon by not proxy. SA has also gone through a palace coup/ succsion crisis over the past few weeks. Israel dislikes everyone but hasn't been doing too much that I know about recently, would appreciate more information and Egypt is in a similar bag, except not as disliked. Turkey is undergoing large scale problems as well. In short everything hosed up and I need a map. Have I gotten anything wrong, in which case please point it out.
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Nov 9, 2017 16:47
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Ardennes posted:My point is generally, I don't think the headline execution rates are that different enough to balance the fact that Iran does have a more liberal culture (still not comparable to a Western country) and that the public does have some recourse versus the government even if it obviously isn't a liberal democracy. To be honest, there aren't really many functioning democracies left in the region period. If everything is relative, then Iranian society is more flexible despite its higher rate of executions by the state itself. What you're talking about is the robustness of civil society, defined by the number and efficacy of diverse blocs to effect social change and reform. And by that measure Iran is far ahead of most ME countries, save Lebanon, a couple of countries in North Africa, maaaaybe Egypt though Sisi has done an effective job at tamping that down. The Mukhbarat in Jordan is pretty strong at stifling dissent, no matter how pleasant the demeaner of its autocrat might be. Still don't understand the point of measuring what country is "better", but it does show that Iran is more able to respond to the demands of its own citizens, within reason. e: MiddleOne posted:Can someone educate me on how Saudi Arabia going to war with Lebanon would even work logistically? As I'm looking on the world map I'm gradually realizing I know literally nothing about Jordan but this is still very confusing to me. UAE and Egypt bombed the poo poo out of Libya for a long time, and might still be doing so for all I know. e2: bugman you're not wrong generally, but it is very general. Each thing you listed can and has taken up dozens of pages in this thread, but to take one section, Israel has been shooting rocket fire into Syria for years now, anytime there has been any encroachment in Israeli-held Golan heights: http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/10/israel-attacking-syria-171023081211645.html There has been some threats of further incursions by the Israelis, mostly unfulfilled, but there has been a pretty widespread campaign of assassination undertaken against Hezbollah honchos. Interesting twist to this is that the SAA has been pretty unresponsive, unwilling to poke that bear, and that Israeli military attacks occurs at the prodding of rebel groups in the region, purposefully. Shageletic fucked around with this message at 16:56 on Nov 9, 2017 |
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Nov 9, 2017 16:49
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Ardennes posted:I assume the timing is due to the fact it looks like the attempt to cut the SaA from Iraq has failed, and plan B is to attack Hezbollah directly while the Syrian Civil War is at least still going on. (That or it is saber rattling). Yeah I think its this. MiddleOne posted:Can someone educate me on how Saudi Arabia going to war with Lebanon would even work logistically? As I'm looking on the world map I'm gradually realizing I know literally nothing about Jordan but this is still very confusing to me. A direct war is highly unlikely. They're trying to stir up enough poo poo that Hezbollah ends up fighting where it doesn't want to. I'd laugh if all this was a huge ploy to draw Hezbollah back to Lebanon, while the revived FSA is ready to mount a fresh offensive to take Damascus.
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Nov 9, 2017 16:56
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Although no-one appears to give a poo poo anymore, the OPCW-FFM just released a report detailing the use of Sarin in an incident a week before the April 4th Khan Sheikhoun attack. Unusually they included lots of photos of debris recovered from the site, some of which indicates the same bomb was used in Khan Sheikhoun and this earlier attack, and the Sarin used has one of the chemical markers that the OPCW-UN JIM stated was an indication the Sarin was Syrian government produced. I wrote a bunch of poo poo about it here https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2017/11/09/fresh-evidence-sarin-use-syrian-government-forces-opcw/
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Nov 9, 2017 16:57
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Brown Moses posted:Although no-one appears to give a poo poo anymore, the OPCW-FFM just released a report detailing the use of Sarin in an incident a week before the April 4th Khan Sheikhoun attack. Unusually they included lots of photos of debris recovered from the site, some of which indicates the same bomb was used in Khan Sheikhoun and this earlier attack, and the Sarin used has one of the chemical markers that the OPCW-UN JIM stated was an indication the Sarin was Syrian government produced. I wrote a bunch of poo poo about it here Something something the lion Assad. Out of curiosity, what if anything has the US under Trump said about Syria wrt chemical weapons?
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Nov 9, 2017 17:09
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Count Roland posted:Yeah I think its this. so would i, but i doubt KSA royals are that smart.
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Nov 9, 2017 17:11
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Trump indicated more missile strikes in the future if this persisted but he's probably forgotten.
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Nov 9, 2017 17:12
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Dapper_Swindler posted:so would i, but i doubt KSA royals are that smart. They or the UAE tried to pull a coup by mercenary group against Qatar in the 90's. It consisted of a bunch of Colombians getting lost in the desert while a group fast boated into Doha harbor, couldn't read the signs, asked for directions to the palace and were promptly arrested.
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Nov 9, 2017 17:21
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Josef bugman posted:Okay so, I am a real newbie to all this but can I pop down some of the local "players" and ask for people to correct my understanding of what is going on? - Iran and Syria are allies. Iran supports Assad's forces in the civil war. - The Kurds are split into multiple polities and factions, which have various relationships with other factions. There are also Kurds in Syria. The Kurdish-led SDF controls about a third of the country right now and is fighting ISIS. - Yemen is a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, though SA is far more deeply involved. No one is at war with Lebanon (yet, this could change in literally days) - It's not that there's been a coup or succession crisis in SA, but more that the future king has been purging opponents and preparing himself to rule as an autocrat. - Israel is pro-Iraqi Kurdistan and has a de facto alliance with Saudi Arabia although neither would ever admit it. Egypt is increasingly Saudi Arabia's lapdog.
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Nov 9, 2017 17:26
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Ardennes posted:My point is generally, I don't think the headline execution rates are that different enough to balance the fact that Iran does have a more liberal culture (still not comparable to a Western country) and that the public does have some recourse versus the government even if it obviously isn't a liberal democracy. To be honest, there aren't really many functioning democracies left in the region period. If everything is relative, then Iranian society is more flexible despite its higher rate of executions by the state itself. Having an execution rate that high discredits the idea that it's much of a Liberal culture, in my view. Even within the context of the Middle East places like Egypt, which is probably a far worse country to live in right now than Iran, doesn't have such a high rate of officially conducted executions. Likewise between those two countries Iran has more and harsher legislation against things like Homosexuality (though it's oddly progressive on Transgender rights). It's very clearly a 'managed' democracy, but if that democracy still results in it's ongoing policies such Syria does it enter into the argument all that much? I dunno. I don't care much for competence since an 'competent' Iranian shell in Syria kills people just as well as an incompetent Saudi bomb in Yemen. They didn't seem to have much handle on things like the emergence of ISIS and their foreign policy and adventures in Syria appear to have blackened their name around the Middle East when during Bushes time there was a lot more sympathy towards them, if that's competent, but I think I'm getting too waylaid comparing Saudi Arabia and Iran, which isn't really my intent so much as arguing against the overly rosy view people sometimes talk about with regards to Iran, I'd certainly rather live in Iran than SA overall but I wouldn't want to be on the receiving end of the Foreign Policy of either country.
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Nov 9, 2017 17:30
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coathat posted:Congratulations to Yemen on “Worlds Biggest Famine” Millions going to be affected. https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-middle-east-41923769 Don't see the same level of outrage from the usual suspects over this as there is over Syria.
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Nov 9, 2017 17:36
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khwarezm posted:Having an execution rate that high discredits the idea that it's much of a Liberal culture, in my view. Even within the context of the Middle East places like Egypt, which is probably a far worse country to live in right now than Iran, doesn't have such a high rate of officially conducted executions. Likewise between those two countries Iran has more and harsher legislation against things like Homosexuality (though it's oddly progressive on Transgender rights). It's very clearly a 'managed' democracy, but if that democracy still results in it's ongoing policies such Syria does it enter into the argument all that much? I dunno. The trans 'rights' are due to their fundamentalist views on homosexuality. Gay men and lesbians are often forced into transitioning despite not being trans. WhiskeyWhiskers fucked around with this message at 17:56 on Nov 9, 2017 |
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Nov 9, 2017 17:52
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Aurubin posted:Something something the lion Assad. Out of curiosity, what if anything has the US under Trump said about Syria wrt chemical weapons? They bombed that airfield
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Nov 9, 2017 17:57
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Aurubin posted:Something something the lion Assad. Out of curiosity, what if anything has the US under Trump said about Syria wrt chemical weapons? That one airstrike that did nothing but blow up some dirt and maybe took out hangers that were apparently cleared beforehand.
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Nov 9, 2017 18:05
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cochise posted:That one airstrike that did nothing but blow up some dirt and maybe took out hangers that were apparently cleared beforehand. Yeah, it was a lot less effective than the deal the Obama administration made with Putin to remove most of Assad's chemical weapons, but Americans are so used to thinking of foreign policy as blowing stuff up that Obama's response is considered weak and Trump's action was seen as decisive. Assad only used sarin again in the first place because Trump was seen as so soft on Russia and his administration had openly rejected regime change, so the regime felt emboldened to act more openly again after a period of (obviously relative) circumspection after the deal.
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Nov 9, 2017 18:08
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cochise posted:War. right. like they went to war with Qatar a few months ago. just another trumpian nonsense and posturing and then pretend it's all part of a non-existent long game.
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Nov 9, 2017 18:10
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tekz posted:Millions going to be affected. Yep it’s not sexy like chemical weapons or the specter of Iran. But unlike everything else America could actually do something to stop it.
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Nov 9, 2017 18:18
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tekz posted:Millions going to be affected.
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Nov 9, 2017 18:35
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cochise posted:That one airstrike that did nothing but blow up some dirt and maybe took out hangers that were apparently cleared beforehand. I've seen this view point floating around since the strike occurred but it doesn't match up with reality. The Russians were given a two hour warning to clear out to avoid escalating the conflict and, obviously, that time was used by the Syrian Air Force to remove its most valuable assets. That doesn't mean that dozens of Tomahawk missiles did no damage to the facility. Fuel and ammo depots were destroyed as well as repair centers, hangars and even several jets. They flew symbolic flights to show defiance towards the United States immediately following the strikes but it took months to repair the damage and return the base to a normal level of operations. The warning saved the most advanced and valuable jets but that doesn't mean that the strikes were without effect. Sinteres posted:Yeah, it was a lot less effective than the deal the Obama administration made with Putin to remove most of Assad's chemical weapons, but Americans are so used to thinking of foreign policy as blowing stuff up that Obama's response is considered weak and Trump's action was seen as decisive. Assad only used sarin again in the first place because Trump was seen as so soft on Russia and his administration had openly rejected regime change, so the regime felt emboldened to act more openly again after a period of (obviously relative) circumspection after the deal. Obama has a mixed bag as far as chemical weapons are concerned because Assad never stopped using them and clearly held a substantial arsenal in reserve. Trump's strikes did have a serious deterrent effect, as little credit as I would like to give alzheimers president. Brother Friendship fucked around with this message at 18:43 on Nov 9, 2017 |
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Nov 9, 2017 18:41
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Brother Friendship posted:Obama has a mixed bag as far as chemical weapons are concerned because Assad never stopped using them and clearly held a substantial arsenal in reserve. Trump's strikes did have a serious deterrent effect, as little credit as I would like to give alzheimers president. My understanding is that they're still using chlorine, which they did continue to use while Obama was president. You didn't see a large scale sarin attack again until Trump was president and confused everyone about where he stood on Syria though. I think it's fair to argue that Obama's response was inadequate, but anyone who thinks Trump's was adequate can't really make that case. To be fair, Russia was far more active in Syria when Trump was president, so he faced more constraints than Obama, but on the other hand we hadn't already been active fighting ISIS for years at the time Obama had to choose whether or not to enforce the red line, so the American people were less ready for another confrontation in the region at the time. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 18:53 on Nov 9, 2017 |
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Nov 9, 2017 18:47
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Pajser posted:right. like they went to war with Qatar a few months ago. just another trumpian nonsense and posturing and then pretend it's all part of a non-existent long game. It isn't nonsense, and there is a long game. Not like I know what it is, but if safe to assume that "gently caress iran" is part of it somehow. I mean, they brought out the loving orb! You can't tell me they have an orb and no evil plan to go along with it.  e: that these plans are stupid and are backfiring, well that's because they're morons
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Nov 9, 2017 18:50
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Sinteres posted:My understanding is that they're still using chlorine, which they did continue to use while Obama was president. You didn't see a large scale sarin attack again until Trump was president and confused everyone about where he stood on Syria though. I think it's fair to argue that Obama's response was inadequate, but anyone who thinks Trump's was adequate can't really make that case. I always felt that Assad was acting like a creeping troll with his use of chemical weapons while Obama was in office and sort of danced around the 'red line' to both demoralize the opposition and undermine US authority in the region. I haven't seen that behavior continue since Trump's airstrikes because he is clearly more hot heated and impulsive than Obama but I'll also say that I haven't been following the war as much as before so I could be wrong. The only mention of Chlorine attacks since the strikes that I have seen were in Ghouta in the past month and that seemed to be out of frustration for how the battle in Jobar was going for the regime as opposed to any sort of underlying strategy.
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Nov 9, 2017 19:01
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Caption this 
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Nov 9, 2017 19:13
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manly turkish sperm is go space
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Nov 9, 2017 19:19
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Cat Mattress posted:Who is? The Lebanese are probably the best here, dysfunctional as it is.
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Nov 9, 2017 19:32
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Brother Friendship posted:I've seen this view point floating around since the strike occurred but it doesn't match up with reality. The Russians were given a two hour warning to clear out to avoid escalating the conflict and, obviously, that time was used by the Syrian Air Force to remove its most valuable assets. That doesn't mean that dozens of Tomahawk missiles did no damage to the facility. Fuel and ammo depots were destroyed as well as repair centers, hangars and even several jets. They flew symbolic flights to show defiance towards the United States immediately following the strikes but it took months to repair the damage and return the base to a normal level of operations. The warning saved the most advanced and valuable jets but that doesn't mean that the strikes were without effect. I think by most advanced jets you mean any capable of getting airborne.
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Nov 9, 2017 19:36
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coathat posted:Congratulations to Yemen on “Worlds Biggest Famine”
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