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ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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Sign me up, after salem it'll be interesting with less knowledge of roles.

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ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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Asphyxious posted:

Guys let’s look for scum by lynching people and seeing how they flip and seeing how people react.

This is my patented technique and it’s called GASPING™️ and I can confirm it’s 100% effective.

##vote Hambeet

Follow me to SUCCESS!

Gasping at straws?

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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RF is leaving some breadcrumbs but I don't want to DERAIL the thread over them.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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you could try something with conducting maybe

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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Dancer posted:

So I guess... "casing". (lol D1)

To be honest I did think that whole exchange was kinda awkward, ypm kinda came out swinging, had a pretty non existent read on ggm, then backed off when it could have maybe made them look bad. But it's D1 and the votes didn't really look that serious so maybe they were honestly concerned ggm was misinterpreting the random joke votes.

There's not really much else to go on at the moment, the other person who kinda strikes me as off is hambeet just with the general flood of posts and how he reacted to Asphyxious's vote on him. Kind of feels like he's trying a bit too hard to come across as chatty and nice.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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Your Personal Muse posted:

2) Is there anything in my GGN case that seemed disingenuous to you?

So it was a serious vote? Based on what?

This is what I saw you and b- commented on

GenericGirlName posted:

I forgot how much the early poo poo posting sucks. I'm bad at poo poo posting except when I'm trying to serious post...

Is that really that scummy? I'm pretty new and also don't really get what you're supposed to be doing in D1 so I don't really see anything off about it.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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hambeet posted:

Worrying about your posting looking scummy is scummy. Only scum worry about their image, town just scum hunt.

That makes sense I guess, so if b- also saw it as scummy why didn't he vote for ggn? Looking through the thread he says several times he thinks ggn is scum (also mentions kash twice), then randomly decides to vote for you while insisting he won't change his vote

b-minus1 posted:

##Vote hambeet turbo time not moving my vote 100% serious bring on d2

and even after that he still seems to feel ggn is scum

b-minus1 posted:

You’re lucky I’m votIng hambeet

but won't switch his vote?

I am confused.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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Dancer posted:

Tho I do sorta agree with this one, b- has acted like this in many games, including at least one town game. The data-set is small because he's been scum a lot lately, but to me b- reads neutral at this point.

I don't really have a meta view on b- with respect to whether it's normal or not I just feel like it's super weird for him to "case" one person, random vote for another, and then say he's not gonna change the vote even though he still thinks someone else is more suspicious.

Like maybe it makes sense if you've played with b- more but uh, it doesn't seem like a good move in general? Why not vote for who you're suspicious of or at least give a reason why he wants to stick with Ham. To be honest I am a bit offput by ham too for previous stated reasons but from what b- has posted the vote still feels real weird to me.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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Dancer posted:

YPM said certain things. The things he said aren't in question, they're right here in the thread. In my "case" I was presenting what motivation might lead a scum player to say those things. For that I had to make a lot of assumptions ("read into his behaviour"), which are likely quite inaccurate. Which is why I repeatedly emphasized that the case isn't strong.

My argument in the quoted post is that you were doing that too, except you didn't qualify your statements.

Yeah I don't feel like it was a bad case either as far as D1 goes. ypm stood out to me too with their series of joke votes before zeroing in then reneging on ggn. The "random" votes coulda been an attempt to start something they could just later shrug off as joke phase and the ggn angle was kinda forced. Backtracking on it felt like a way to build some rapport. I think I'm getting a similar vibe with you here, it's a real soft read because its d1 but it does come across to me as suspicious too.

On the other hand b-'s play just feels weird, latched onto ham with no given reason and has now expressed he's willing to railroad kash? I can sorta get just going with a seemingly random target d1 and using the info for d2 but it still doesn't really explain why he posted several times he was suspicious of a specific person then went for a random vote for someone else anyways. It sounds like you sorta have meta reasons for finding this less offputting than it comes across to me.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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Well I'm kinda tired of b- being uncooperative. Don't have a ton of experience but last time I saw someone never willing to provide reasons for their actions and refusing to legitimately engage with anyone's concerns regarding them Merk ended up flipping werewolf.

##: vote b-minus1

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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ArbitraryC posted:

##: vote b-minus1

think I did that wrong

##vote b-minus1

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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Yami Fenrir posted:

Quick reminder that lurker guns are a thing. There are 6 people that have below 10 posts atm.

Interesting, when I saw hambeet spamming I thought he might be fishing for a lurker gun (happened in yugioh too) but I checked the OP and it didn't mention that mechanic so I wasn't sure.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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Dancer posted:

It's definitely in the OP, it's just not called lurker guns.

Well that would explain why a ctrl-f for lurker didn't find it. Within 12 hours means it already triggered then right?

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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Well we got a bit over 8 hours left and the votes are kind of all over the place. I still don't really like how he played the vote on hambeet but it seems like most the regulars disagree with that read.

Asphyx and Jedit are on A sometimes food because of his followup vote on b- and weird speculation about b-'s role

Kash is on RF because he didn't like the followup vote on b-, seems this pinged a couple other people too

Dancer is on hambeet because of spamming to get a lurker gun

Flerp and nep nep are on kash though as far as I can tell those were just random votes they did at the start and haven't switched off yet

I still kind of like b- as a vote but I can see the voting based case on both ASF and RF, both kind of look like they took an easy opportunity to ride my vote.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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Dancer posted:

I really really hate doing this, but... this is, again, b-minus being b-minus :v: . I'm reading him more and more as town. I'd prefer to not vote him.
Though I am lol-ing a little bit at that claim. Jason Chang is... not exactly a major character.

OMG!hotboss

Really my problem is that I felt like we were already seriously playing the game for a day and b- still refused to engage. B- had a read on one person, voted another, and still refused to budge even when people started asking about it. Eventually he unvoted, only after the person he initially voted with (Asphyxious) did. I feel like we had already been trying to play the game, while b- was posting, before he made this change then fell back on it being a jokevote.

I get that a few people have out of game meta reasons for thinking this just b- being b- but to me it comes across badly and it's kind of a weak defense. I woulda had less of an issue had he responded sincerely earlier, I gave him a while before i put down my vote, and this pseudo claim feels plausible but still not really strong, dude was a complete background character used almost entirely as a joke with his computer password. It's certainly not something you'd have to worry about a counterclaim with, particularly when you don't even provide the role.

There's a couple other people I feel are a bit suspicious based on their votes in the last 24 hours (namely RF) and Kash's jester claim is super weird and offputting to me but I still am suspicious of how b- handled yesterday and their claim feels incredibly weak.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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I see the argument on RF but I don't really get the one on Jedit. He felt the RF/ASF votes were suspicious which is something I can see. Going back through the thread it looks like people are most critical of him calling dancer out on mafia dadding then turning around and doing the same thing?

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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hambeet posted:

sorta like claiming jester huh?

Not Voting (1): hambeet

Most posts too to clinch that lurker gun

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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hambeet posted:

hey everyone arbc cracked the case.

You're making reads but not committing to any of them, spreading out a bunch of non content to make sure you get to shoot someone tomorrow, and waiting around for things to start rolling without you. poo poo or get off the pot.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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hambeet posted:

my claim is i'm a broken auto dispenser that just keeps dispensing toilet paper

like posts in a thread

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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Dancer posted:

What do you think of Jedit's claim, gut call?

(I have thoughts, but I want to hear some other ppl first)

Everyone has a role an it sorta makes sense there'd be a PA person flavorwise. It also kinda makes sense to give a heads up as his last post today so he can use tomorrow to verify the claim. I don't really get any strong pings from jedit so I'm hesitant to switch just to turbo someone in the last hour, at that point it feels like it'd be p hard to interpret the votes.

B- still feels suspicious to me, I didn't like how they handled they handled the beet vote+followup and the claim feels super weak. Even the play b- said he was making feels weird, he as town pretended to be scummy to fish out other plausible town people? How does that help?

I could be convinced to go to RF, I've already stated why I think they're a reasonable choice, I'd rather pick someone than go with no lynch from a split.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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Dancer posted:

Half an hour left seems like a decent spot to start properly consolidating.

##vote RF

I'm willing to switch because I'm a bit suspicious of RF too and I'd prefer we get a vote but can you provide me a non handwavy "b- being b-" reason you'd lean one way over the other?

I'm okay with either but I don't want the day to just end in an ambiguous scuffle where everyone can claim they turbo'ed out of necessity.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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##vote RF

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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b-minus1 posted:

man, some people really didn't want jedit to be lynched yesterday.

I didn't really see the case on them then and I don't really see it now, he's also verified his messenger role, but that's a pretty neutral claim so I don't really know what to make of it.


b-minus1 posted:

there are other ways to explain it. ex strongman/unstoppable kill. but imo it's pointless to speculate too much.

Other thing that stood out to me aside from the pgo not trading was that there was only one nightkill.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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Other thing no one else has pointed out yet, for the correction between the two vote counts Yamir posted, there's only one difference and it's a doozy.

quote:

Asphyxious (2): Jedit, Anonymous

this put total votes up to 17.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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Jedit posted:

It's more like some people really did want RF to be lynched.

Consider YPM. He was on you all day until he moved to me. But when it turned out the only person who came along for the ride was Dancer, he didn't switch back to you; he went to RF as soon as Dancer hopped over there. Why not stick to his guns? It was 5-5-4 when Dancer declared that it was time to consolidate on RF, it was only 6-5 after Dancer moved. If he'd gone back to you it might still have happened, but moving to RF shut out people's choices.

Yeah I really didn't like how that day ended, it feels difficult to read into it because Dancer had already been saying he wasn't gonna vote B- so it was just a last minute pileup on RF to avoid a no lynch.

I think RF was a reasonable target overall but with it just being a scramble at the end it's hard to read anyone's votes. You say YPM coulda tried to stick with b- but I got the strong impression that neither beet or dancer were willing to vote that way (without even much of a provided reason, when I asked dancer it was mostly just meta play).

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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Dancer posted:

I'm not going to say you're doing this on purpose, but you are slightly misrepresenting. I never said I "wouldn't" vote b-. Of course I would've voted b- to avoid mislynch.

Sorry I didn't mean to misrepresent you but you did seem incredibly hesitant. I asked you right before I switched. You also kinda kicked off the consolidation vote, not saying it wasn't a reasonable move but by picking RF there and knowing there were several other people around with such little time before the lynch it pretty much necessitated everyone else fall in line. Had you picked b- it likely would have been the same chain of votes from the same people just for b- instead.

I don't think the case for RF was bad just that if we turn around and try to read too hard into the last set of votes we're just going to lynch town that was avoiding a no lynch. If anything I think we should be more concerned with the people who actively avoided picking a side until the end which turned it into a scramble in the first place. I really don't like how Beet just sorta floated around making reads but not committing to anything until an hour and a half before the polls were closing. If the votes had started playing out earlier there'd have been more time to look at what they meant.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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hambeet posted:

because he got a message posted in mod post? that at least confirms the ability but nothing else beyond that.

These were both in response to my same post

:thunk:

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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hambeet posted:

yeah someone put an anonymous vote on, so someone has a double vote power. it's interesting it landed on someone who was not at risk of being voted hmmm

jedit are you a double voter?

It's weird no one else commented on that, but maybe it's more common than I think. Feels like the only two options really are jedit is a double voter or someone wanted to make people with jedit was a double voter. I dunno if flavor speculation is a good or bad idea to case but one of the basic enemies in prey are mimics and it makes sense that doublevoting would be their role.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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hambeet posted:

yeah i hosed up and misread it the second time some how on my second skim read, i thought you said you couldn't see how he was verified which is why i was mafsplaining.

more like you're just hammering posts so fast for that sweet sweet lurker gun that you can't even keep track of what you said amiright?

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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hambeet posted:

uhh no..


it says comes WITHIN 12 hours of finishing, not 'finishes within 12 hours of deadline'.


why would the lurker gun rule stipulate about if the game day ends 12 hours before or not. that makes literally not sense sorry.

It's to prevent getting lurker guns from a turbo i'd imagine. Day has to last at least 36 hours hours for them to be in effect.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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hambeet posted:

how could you turbo a lurker gun? you need to have a time frame for people to post within to make a post count meaningful. so you need to say you need to have X posts by Y time, and the OP says that: more than 10 posts by 12 hours before deadline.

I missread it at first too but I think the mechanic is obvious after yesterday,

quote:

If you post fewer than ten times across a game day that comes within 12 hours of finishing...

It says if you post less than 10 times throughout the whole day (so up until deadline) but that the day needs to get within 12 hours of the deadline. 12 hours before deadline triggers the availability of guns but they're not given out until the day actually ends, people are still allowed to catch up in those last 12 hours.

You can't get the gun if the day doesn't come within 12 hours of finishing, but that's not the deadline for the 10 posts.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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I still feel like b- is a good option today. I explained my reasoning D1 but there's been more since then. B- never joined in on the vote for RF but did post within 10 minutes of the day ending, feels like they were around but really didn't wanna be the hammer on a town. Today b- agrees with people on the ggn reads, like he did yesterday, but still isn't voting for her. It just kinda comes across like he wants to push people without attaching his name to it, maybe because he knows they're town.

It's the start of day 2 so I can see not wanting to vote just because you wanna wait for more information to come out, but it feels like the same sort of behavior that pinged me yesterday.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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ArbitraryC posted:

I still feel like b- is a good option today. I explained my reasoning D1 but there's been more since then. B- never joined in on the vote for RF but did post within 10 minutes of the day ending, feels like they were around but really didn't wanna be the hammer on a town. Today b- agrees with people on the ggn reads, like he did yesterday, but still isn't voting for her. It just kinda comes across like he wants to push people without attaching his name to it, maybe because he knows they're town.

It's the start of day 2 so I can see not wanting to vote just because you wanna wait for more information to come out, but it feels like the same sort of behavior that pinged me yesterday.

Can I at least get a response to this? Dancer and beet were around during the final vote and just sorta brushed off my concerns over b- for meta reasons but I still think the case is there and I wanna at least hear why. Beet's still around and still avoiding discussing this, along with their critical vote yesterday, and I'm beginning to feel like they're actively dodging my read. I don't feel like going for RF instead was a bad call in itself but I've never felt satisfied with the responses over why they didn't like b- as an option.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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b-minus1 posted:

Haha oh man. ArbC are you executioner or just regular scum?

Unless I’m mistaken, I was the first person to legitimately suspect GGN of being scum yesterday. So I’m not suddenly “agreeing” with anyone today. Though I must admit I sort of buy GGNs responses today and including the claim. (Though I have no idea why GGN (if they really are town)thought they would be killed) Lol at busdriving me and AA though.

Also lol at expecting me to vote for anyone at the start of the day.

I never said "suddenly" I said you again were posting that you felt ggn's behavior was scummy and yet still didn't pursue it, which is what I felt was off yesterday.

hambeet posted:

so no i'm not avoiding anything. don't single me out when literally no on else has commented on it either and don't fall the misconception that just because you think you have something that others are going to see it that way too.

I was honestly trying to single you out (I also want dancer to respond) because I feel like you've been posting but never really expressed why you didn't like my read. I don't really like how you're playing because you bounce around so much without committing so it makes it feel impossible to actually pin down what stance you're taking but I will admit I should probably be tunneling less on this over the people who just aren't on my radar because they're hardly posting at all.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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Catching up on stuff today, so going over the votes so far:

YPM and Asphyxious are on GGN, she said some kind of scummy things at the start of the day and then cracked under some fairly minor pressure with a town bus driver claim. Tbh she kind of comes across to me more as incompetent town than scum but I don't necessarily think the logic against her is bad either.

hambeet is on Asphyxious, I think he's uh, testing the double vote mechanic or something? I don't get it.

b- is on xad, stuff that's already on this page. Seems the thrust is that Xad is pretending to participate with questions but not really offering much themselves. Also their jokephase was bussing all the scum or something. As far as the first part of b- argument I can agree with that, feels like a reasonable thing to point out.

ggn is on kash, it looked like mostly an omgus vote as well as saying kash was lurking.

kash is on dancer because of a trap sprung regarding dancer's view on ggn? I also am more inclined to think ggn is town playing badly than scum, but I could see how dancer's wording kind of comes across like he's trying to build credit because he already knows which it is?

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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I'm kinda surprised no one has a vote on YPM, saw several people point out their push on ggn looked kinda bad and I'd agree with that. Like their reasoning isn't that bad but the same logic they used to defend ggn yesterday feels like it applies today, I get that ggn posted some dubious stuff but I get more of a bumbling town vibe.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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hambeet posted:

Yeah I was.

##unvote

It must sit with jedit or someone else

I don't think the anonymous vote appeared till the end of the day so it might be invisible up until the hammer. It'd make sense flavorwise as a mimic mechanic that way, they don't really reveal themselves till they attack. Which might mean that someone who appears to be at -2 is at -1, etc. Since it was on a target with hardly any votes yesterday kinda hard to tell.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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b-minus1 posted:

Wtf is this post lol. I’ve been calling ypm scum all day

That's what I'm saying, several people pointed it out but no one voted on it. I just found that surprising when I was going through the votes.

So you like Xad more than YPM or do you think they're both scum? I understand your point about Xad's contributions feeling a bit light, like they feel obligated to post something but don't really wanna put themselves out there, but I dunno about scumbussing angle you're going for. If I had to pick between the two I would say YPM looks worse today, but that's mostly because I don't think ggn is scum.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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Anomalous Amalgam posted:

This is what makes me think Ypm is town. He always does this thing which is actually scummier than what he calls out. Then I make a big stinky argument about it, no one listens, I go crazy, he flips and is town by a NK or something and boom! I've got a whole plate of crow to eat. Hes town ggn is town beet is scum. You maaaayyybbeee scum.

I can't really say I like this argument on ypm, feels like more of a meta reason than an actual argument. YPM's and Asphyxious' votes on ggn came across badly to me but I'm not entirely sold on them being scummy because it's not that I really disagree with their logic posted regarding how ggn handled herself and her alleged role, I just interpret it as incompetent town rather than frazzled scum.

I thought beet was scummy yesterday because of how he handled the vote but today I feel like he's been more helpful and more proactive about actually committing to his stances.


Honestly right now the person I don't like the most is ASF, they've hardly posted and then just sorta popped in to dump a vote on someone who has some heat building up over the whole GGN argument before slinking back away into the shadows. It feels kinda likely things are gonna tip soon on YPM and it just comes across to me as a really passive way of taking advantage of an argument they're not involved in.

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ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
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b-minus1 posted:

Srs question, how exactly are my contributions questionable?

Feel like you're kinda just throwing shade on everyone with nebulous reasoning. I like the first part of your Xad read concerning their posts today not really providing much, but the whole joke vote analysis seems way off and it feels like you've kinda doubled down on it with a second completely different list that contradicts your first one. You include both Dancer and Nep on your list of people you'd think were town if Xad were scum then suddenly say you've crafted a secondary list where they're both scum (as well as me) without really saying why except the day's been too long or something.

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