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Always remember the Republican strongholds of Dutch West Michigan will report before the majority of the population of Michigan which resides in the very Democratic Detroit area. Tonight was a good night if you took that early call Stabenow money after doubling up from early returns showing John James ever had a chance (HA HA) and played the swings in Arizona on the low end and then got scared and traded out after a few cents in Connecticut. Seriously, can someone explain what the H happened in the CT Gov market tonight? Not complaining about my choices this evening but it seems like there was a lot to be had in that market I was oblivious to. Also, weed is now legal in Michigan by a landslide, but the predictit knew that a long time ago.
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Nov 7, 2018 06:32
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Wish there was a market on Justin Amash holding his seat in Congress. It would be a good way to turn free money into more free money. Merlot Brougham has issued a correction as of 08:34 on Jun 29, 2019 |
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Jun 29, 2019 08:30
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As long as this thread isn't totally dead, NC-09 was giving away money tonight.
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Sep 11, 2019 02:48
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abelwingnut posted:it didn’t seem immediately obvious who would win, i thought. or was the market just wackily swinging? Both. It was Ossoff 2.0. Bishop was trading in the 30's after the early vote dump depite all the analysis showing McReady had underperformed in that department.
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Sep 11, 2019 22:55
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Vox Nihili posted:Making money by flipping insane bargain bets up to crazy people is the best part of Predictit. Mayor Pete.
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Oct 9, 2019 23:53
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CassandraZara posted:Is there a way to edit your dashboard? I much preferred having the markets on my watchlist on the left side of the screen over seeing how other people did. Not that I am aware of.
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Oct 15, 2019 00:24
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Indeed. Loaded for bear going into Louisiana.
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Nov 7, 2019 04:02
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CassandraZara posted:I managed to max Bloomberg getting in at an average of 72c, it’s still available for 74c. He’s put in the time and money to qualify for the Alabama presidential primary, and if he spent $5000 doing that, he must file with the FEC within two weeks. From the little digging I did before I cashed out (for a few bucks playing swings on No), the filing fee in Alabama is $2500. The petiton requirements are either 500 sigs statewide, or 50 sigs from each of the 7 congressional districts. Those are expensive signatures if he paid 2500 for them.
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Nov 9, 2019 01:14
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CassandraZara posted:A good question would be that if you think he somehow spent less than $5k there, does he intend to stop spending immediately? Is this some troll of the mainstream media and/or Joe Biden. I think the odds of that are less than the eighty cents price would suggest. I'm not suggesting anything, and I mostly agree with you. I just don't believe the actions in Alabama pushed him beyond the terms of that particular market resolving YES. That market could very likely still resolve yes, I was just throwing out the info I found.
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Nov 9, 2019 06:15
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Shear Modulus posted:to bloomberg 50 bucks a signature is like 0.01 cents per signature to you or me I know it wouldn't be a problem for his pocketbook if he overpaid for services by 5000%, but he didn't get rich in the first place by behaving that way and it doesn't cost that much for paid petitioning, that's all I'm saying. If he is serious, the next filing deadline should be happening soon in some other state that I haven't bothered to look up the details for and this issue will be settled.
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Nov 9, 2019 06:18
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This one's for Joey Knish: I hadn't followed a debate in real time prior to the last one. It was wild. Unfortunately, I had my available money locked against Biden early so just had to ride it out. Sniped some Louisiana shares while the gamblers were liquidating to put more into the debate market. "I play for money" - Joey Knish
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Nov 24, 2019 00:48
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Jenny Agutter posted:mayor Pete above warren rn, who are these people Not sure, but I'm glad I got in against Warren when she was trading in the 50's, and as long as Pete continues riding this wave, I was going to buy (more) against him after Iowa. More importantly, when the hell is the Louisiana Governor's MoV Market going to close? Tempted to buy more there at .97, actually. As long as it'll be cashed out before the Dec debate. Still hanging on to some No shares I picked up after Bernie's heart attack in the "who will drop out next" market for some liquidity in case it doesn't. Merlot Brougham has issued a correction as of 00:09 on Dec 3, 2019 |
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Dec 3, 2019 00:04
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Louisiana MoV just cashed. Game on. Another big win for the Joey Knish school of "predicting".
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Dec 4, 2019 03:02
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What is everyone else doing with the sweet, sweet "Will Hillary run by 12/30" giveaway sweepstakes now that it cashed?
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Dec 31, 2019 20:26
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Predictit Thread: I've been owned big time.
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Jan 11, 2020 00:49
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bawfuls posted:a compounding factor is the Predictit market is based on delegates, not votes, and a tie goes to ratface because of alphabet The predictit rules say It is based on state delegate equivalent count which goes down to the tenths or hundredths decimal. The market will not be determined by alphabetical order.
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Feb 5, 2020 16:01
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 Justin Amash Market
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Apr 18, 2020 14:34
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The Justin Amash market is just as sweet here on page 40 as it was on page 39.
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Apr 28, 2020 17:27
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WampaLord posted:are you going with Yes or No? Holding some yes for the moment, but have been profiting off both ends of the swings.
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Apr 28, 2020 23:06
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Star spangled gamblers my rear end. You need to come here for the real tips.
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Apr 29, 2020 02:53
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bollig posted:also I have gone down the tweets rabbit hole To quote the great philosopher Major Vic "Deak" Deakins: "Not. A good. Idea."
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Apr 30, 2020 15:02
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Grandpa Palpatine posted:Just bought a shitload of NO at .52 for Democratic National Convention will be held at FileServ Forum Did you read the fine print in the rules?
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May 1, 2020 19:13
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Grandpa Palpatine posted:Yea. Like they're going to rent out that entire arena just for him to accept the nomination with a shitload of empty seats behind him? A lot can happen in 3 months. Im hanging on to the shares of "no brokered convention" I picked up a while ago at 60 which i feel more confident about than what they decide to do with the venue. Good luck though, Im staying out of that one for now. Amash is back down to 90 if you want to top off again before it cashes.
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May 1, 2020 21:02
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The Joe Man posted:is "populism updates" a real twitter and not you in a wig or did i just lose $300 on a fake jesse announcement Opinions about the likelihood of a forthcoming announcement aside, did you just dive into that market because Twitter user "Populism Updates" tweeted this? "Former Minnesota governor and WWE Hall of Famer Jesse Ventura is about to officially announce a Green Party run for president, per DMs" I don't see many other tweets from Populism Updates indicating they are a Green Party operative, but I do see a few discussing Predictit strategy. What could possibly go wrong?
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May 2, 2020 09:55
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Do I need to remind this page about the Amash Market since everyone is talking about keeping 90 locked up for months on Michelle?
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May 6, 2020 16:49
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Just want to point out the Amash market was the gift that kept on giving, and was actually trading at 80 again until 20 mins ago when the FEC officially posted his paperwork.
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May 8, 2020 16:21
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i say swears online posted:Entering month three of zero good decisions on this site. I feel like a pitcher whose mind broke You didn't stick to the Steyer strategy past the point this thread clearly told us to abandon it, did you? That'd be your own fault, friend.
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May 8, 2020 17:34
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WampaLord posted:Tell us the good markets/bets, then. If the initial announcement prices passed you by, The Amash market got pumped back down to 80 cents just 2 days ago before it cashed out. Just to be clear, the rules required the FEC to post the paperwork filing for his exploratory committee by June 1 in order to resolve yes. He announced his candidacy, launched his website, was actively campaigning and accepting donations for his new exploratory committee "Amash for America" on April 28. The FEC requires a filing within 15 days from the point of engagement in campaign activities like that. They were giving away dollars for 80 cents while waiting a few for the paperwork to clear.
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May 10, 2020 15:09
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What does twitter user PopulismUpdates have to say about all this?
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May 13, 2020 20:19
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Now that we can move on from the VP stuff, my gut reaction tells me Minnesota is the safest bet of any of the states currently trading 70-90. How often do unpopular incumbent presidents flip states to their party? How often does that happen in states that have voted for the other side for the past 40-something years? E: I see MN creeping back toward 80 now, but it was trading down near 70 for a time
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Aug 11, 2020 23:06
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i say swears online posted:I'd be happy to make a side wager at 100:1 with you I will take this action.
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Aug 18, 2020 06:02
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comedyblissoption posted:just really stupid free money for a market about to close in like 48 hours The "Brokered Convention" market was in the same boat for a while the past few days as well. Got a few bucks into NO on that market during Berniemania that I plan on rolling into the general. I'm Still liking the risk/reward of the "Rep-No" pricing in Minnesota at the moment as far as the general election goes but seeking any hot tips.
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Aug 18, 2020 17:34
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comedyblissoption posted:should be degen betting markets for if mitt romney speaks at the dnc Debate Market - 'How many times does Biden say "Malarkey"?'
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Aug 19, 2020 17:33
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I sent a suggestion to predictit for an MI-03 market. Justin Amash's current seat - not seeking re-election. The NYT says the district has been "trending blue" in recent years. The GOP tried to primary Amash in 2014 and his refusal to toe the party line is the only reason anyone would think it isn't a safe Republican seat. They have an establishment lapdog on the ballot now, so it will be smooth sailing. Potential money-maker if they add the market. If anyone feels similarly and doesn't mind also expressing an interest in this market to predictit, I think it could be profitable.
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Aug 19, 2020 22:13
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i say swears online posted:^^ yeah i realized i don't want to hold onto my "michelle 2020" max and i'm trying to exit at .97 I was just looking for a MI-03 congressional market, nothing fancy
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Aug 19, 2020 23:44
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comedyblissoption posted:i moved it into red georgia and i still feel like it's one of the best bets since i have tremendous faith the gop in this state will rig the vote hard I did get some shares in on Republican Texas last week when it was trading at .63. I'm willing to be convinced that GA is a safer GOP buy than TX, though. Did this yankee miss "Blue Texas" jumping out of the pages of Astounding Science Fiction and into reality this election cycle?
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Aug 20, 2020 02:18
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ShadowHawk posted:Right now, for the price of $850, a single individual could drive the "market probability" of the Democrats winning Oklahoma from 5% (already too high) to over 15% by buying up the entire order book. Is that a challenge?
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Aug 20, 2020 02:23
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Anyone else get in on the N. Korea market?
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Aug 24, 2020 04:11
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comedyblissoption posted:like, the economy is far worse than in october 2008 and yet the polls keep narrowing in a similar manner as 2016, the entire media apparatus seems to have engaged the anti-mattering fields in gaslighting people into thinking a recovery is just around the corner, biden isnt offering even lip service, and the scapegoating by trump seems to be working at maintaining electoral viability with sky high enthusiasm So what you're saying is, my shares against Trump in MN should still be good. Whew!
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Aug 25, 2020 17:32
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i say swears online posted:ugh i missed the news by an hour but i'd absolutely have gone in on YES when it got down into the 50s Getting in mid .60s would have still been profitable. It's already pushing back to 90 again. Not a bad turnaround at all for a couple days.
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Aug 26, 2020 17:18
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