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Steam Prophet is something of a marketing analysis game created by game developer and marketplace thinkabouter Lars Doucet. The goal is simple: Bet on what upcoming games on Steam will be most profitable/sell the most copies upon release. It's an interesting but useful little game that shows what you REALLY know about what does and doesn't sell in today's market, and gives a sobering look at what factors are most important for any games' given success. Original Website: https://www.steamprophet.com/  As a developer, I find this to be a useful and somewhat entertaining practice, so I thought it might be fun to try this in a wider format where we can bet on and discuss the never-ending drudge of Steam games, and speculate on what factors define success for the "winning" games. (relative terms of course) With that said, I suggest a more casual format than the one created by Lars, which gives each game a full month to get on its feet before declaring its "score." In our case, I find that two weeks' time after launch is generally enough to gauge how well a certain title may be doing, barring strange exceptions, and is a more useful timeframe to keep up to date on releases. The website is also a bit outdated now, as it once used Steam Spy to gauge its score, which is now somewhat defunct. Instead, I suggest simply using the Boxlieter method to determine a game's gross earning estimates: Boxlieter Method: (Review Count x 50) x Price = Gross Earnings* *Not accounting for Steam or Publisher cuts. This is less precise, but I see this practice as being most useful when using relative comparisons, as something doing better or worse than other games, even by small margins, may have something to tell us about what factors into games that sell. To keep up on upcoming games, you can use this link or else just sort by upcoming in Steam itself: https://www.steamprophet.com/upcoming So with all that said, take a look at the top 25 or so games on that list, and place your bets! Bert of the Forest fucked around with this message at 21:50 on Oct 28, 2018 |
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Oct 28, 2018 04:17
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To get the ball rolling, I'll say from the current lineup of games set to release this week (Release date from Oct 28 to Nov 3rd): Skelittle appears to be the most polished, real game of the bunch. Though as a local-only multiplayer Mario Party esque title, its chances aren't too good from the outset, as this stuff has a tendency of severely underperforming on Steam these days. I hope I'm wrong, because it does look kind of adorable. https://store.steampowered.com/app/916960/Skelittle_A_Giant_Party/ CoffeeBiz is pretty basic looking, but simulation games have known to find their audience a little easier on Steam, so it has my hopeful bet. https://store.steampowered.com/app/674370/CoffeeBiz/ However.... Bonds is a dress-up bondage anime game. So.... whether or not this type of poo poo is still capable of outselling real games remains to be seen. But I'm cynical enough that this gets my bet. https://store.steampowered.com/app/955400/Bonds/
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Oct 28, 2018 21:44
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