Coronavirus 2021: I Threw Up On My Sheep

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Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

So I've come down with fever, sore throat and a cough. Also I'm surrounded daily by mainland Chinese students.

looks like the end of the line for me boys

# ¿ Jan 30, 2020 13:03

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# ¿ Apr 27, 2024 03:43

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

I was wondering how many people exactly were immunocompromised overall, and in the US it's around 4% of the total population. Read some pretty interesting pre-COVID articles about the risks of influenza pandemics in world where a larger and larger proportion of the population is immunocompromised. Crazy to think about how deadly the Spanish Flu was to be so devastating in a world where HIV and organ transplants didn't exist. Or immunosuppressive drugs at all I guess, for all kinds of stuff.

# ¿ Mar 30, 2020 02:43

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

Rutibex posted:

world-o-meters is currently showing a corona death rate of 21%. this means one of two things:

1) The number of reported cases and the number of actual cases is off by several orders of magnitude
or
2) the virus will kill 30 million+ americans

i'll let you decide which one you want to believe

The closed case statistics are kinda useless. The UK hasn't updated their recovered statistic since I don't even know when. Like 50k total cases and 135 Recovered.

# ¿ Apr 6, 2020 15:01

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

Disco Pope posted:

Why dont they just switch the money graphs and death graphs around at the next meeting problem solved

one weird trick to win the Nobel Prize in Economics, Medicine and Peace all at once

# ¿ Apr 9, 2020 12:02

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

If it's comparable to a bad flu season, are there examples of times where thousands of people dropped dead from flu on the daily in NY?

# ¿ Apr 10, 2020 17:24

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

mike12345 posted:

idk what downdog is, but your local yoga studio might be offering zoom sessions. so you can work out with others, and feel less lonely.

it's similar to updog, if you know what that is

# ¿ Apr 13, 2020 12:49

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

gary oldmans diary posted:

remember that whole pandemic thing?

zoom is a remote video calling app

# ¿ Apr 13, 2020 12:50

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

gary oldmans diary posted:

heh zoom yoga sounded like a thing i heard of before or some other such nonsense variety of stay-at-home-mom yoga

perhaps zumba

must be lovely to have anxiety. I've got ghoulish curiosity and check that cursed worldometer site like twice a day. number go up.

# ¿ Apr 13, 2020 12:58

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

Fatkraken posted:

No you're thinking of Charon...

Charon takes souls over the Styx, but Hermes flies the souls there first.

# ¿ Apr 14, 2020 14:52

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

People are beyond delusional if they think that lockdown won't see some form of easing in the next few months. If you think countries will remain in this stasis for 2 years or more you simply have no grip on reality.

# ¿ Apr 16, 2020 18:59

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

wilderthanmild posted:

This. Last I looked, overall deaths were only at 88% of what we expect.

Pneumonia deaths, that totally aren't covid-19 no no no, were up over 200% from where you'd expect from what I could tell from the CDCs own stats.

I'm sure there is some useful analysis out there, but it's very difficult to gain useful insight by comparing year on year flu deaths. 200% increase is honestly nothing when it comes to flu. Some years have 2,000%+ more fatalities than the last. In the UK, last year was extremely mild with sub 2000 deaths. In 2014/15 it was almost 30,000.

I have no idea how bad the current flu strain is meant to be, all I can say is that lots of old people will be dying of both flu and coronavirus and a rise in pneumonia deaths is not necessarily indicative of fudging numbers on corona, though it's not at all out of the question.

# ¿ Apr 17, 2020 14:52

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

Given how often Americans walk into places just to shoot them up, how the hell do armed "militia" walk into a government building with assault rifles like this? Aren't these places meant to have, I don't know, guards or something?

# ¿ May 1, 2020 17:24

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

crazy how you can be trained to recognise lawful and unlawful expression of gun ownership. id have no idea. id be like ahhh a guy with a gun!!

# ¿ May 1, 2020 17:38

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

Barudak posted:

Every time I read a story like this I think of how loving stupid the people are who say "an armed society is a polite society"

America is notoriously the politest place on Earth, after all.

It's the same unsettling logic behind the idea that people are only moral because of the threat of heaven/hell.

Won't be surprised to see a few more similar 'blow ups' like this as some people get closer to the edge due to stir crazy.

# ¿ May 5, 2020 12:48

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

Burt Sexual posted:

Please get a yearly physical

Used to blow American minds by telling them that yearly checkups are not even a thing in most of the world, doubly so if you're not old. Studies generally show for people who are healthy, checkups are at best neutral, and at worst actually result in worse health outcomes. Not to mention being a big waste of time and money for everybody involved.

It's one of those weird counter-intuitive things.

# ¿ May 5, 2020 15:03

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

Anne Whateley posted:

I work in Manhattan. Firefighters will absolutely tell you to stay put (shelter in place) to keep you out of their way. I mean they aren't going to find out if you went to the bathroom, but they really don't want people clogging the streets and they'd probably prefer not to have people taking videos from the windows.

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/21/nyregion/counterintuitive-advice-when-you-hear-fire-in-a-high-rise-stay-put.html

Yeah. Standard cookie cutter advice with a high-rise fire is to stay put. They are built with fireproofing that is intended to withstand hours of fire before a risk of collapse. Most often fires can be contained, and if you can't get out quickly, trying to escape can be very dangerous. But then you get the flipside of situations such as: turns out your skyscraper may not be planeproof. Or in the UK, where a bunch of people burned to death in their tower block apartment because firefighters ordered them to stay inside, but the cladding on the building wasn't fit for purpose and actually went up like a tinder box.

# ¿ May 5, 2020 16:45

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

Some clown online was talking about how he survived the '68 Hong Kong Flu which was no big deal even though it was way worse that COVID-19 and kids these days blah blah blah

I actually went and looked up the '68-69 H3N2 flu pandemic and even though it did kill an estimated 100,000 people in the US, 70% of those mortalities occurred during a 6 month outbreak in 1968 and the rest during a milder second wave in 1969:

https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/192/2/233/856805

..... and the first few months of the initial outbreak were 'sporadic' and it wasn't until after the third month (pretty much where the US is now with COVID-19) that the poo poo really hit the fan. Saying that the '68 pandemic was worse than the current pandemic at this point in time is real dumb.

To me, it seems so obvious that those comments are made by somebody who had never even heard of the Hong Kong Flu until they googled it, then crafted some bullshit whiner story from info they gathered from wikipedia. That or lifted from some wingnut who did that exact same thing.

# ¿ May 16, 2020 17:28

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

BlackIronHeart posted:

Honestly, same, I feel weirdly confident wearing a mask and I don't know why it boosts my self esteem.

In Japan and probably other East Asian places, many, many people wear masks not just for politeness reasons but fashion and self-esteem reasons.

Unfortunately as a glasses person, masks suck mad balls, not likely to be wearing them for kicks. Even with bandito/cyberpunk chic.

# ¿ May 17, 2020 11:52

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

Piss Meridian posted:

this is at best misleading, New Zealand produces vastly more food than it consumes, though we do also import from over seas it's not really food insecurity if we can just change our diets...

Nine times out of ten, these painted world map things are riddled with inaccuracies. For example, the Netherlands on that map is painted as the almost totally reliant on importing food when in reality it is the second largest(!) agricultural exporter in the world. It is probably food secure enough to feed its population many times over.

I just noticed this pandemic has been going on so long that I don't even check the worldometer stats anymore. I feel like everybody everywhere is feeling like we're getting to the tail end of things, and looking for normality to return in the next month or so with a few minor inconveniences that might persist. But all the signs point to this second wave hitting like a truck because people are are starved of contact and raring to get back to things as they were. Most people were pretty acquiescent to the lockdown as an extraordinary circumstance. But how many will be if the hammer needs to come down again? Or a third time after that? Many governments have also pulled out a lot of stops to prevent a wholesale collapse of small/medium size businesses. But these measures probably can't handle prolonged, repeated lockdowns. Hell, even with the government aid, many are already collapsing or on the brink. The scale of the recession on the other side of this, once the government rug has been pulled out from these businesses is likely going to be unparalleled. I don't know if I'm catastrophising, but I just can't seemany of brick and mortar stores surviving this at all if there's, say, another lockdown July through September.

# ¿ May 18, 2020 11:11

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

FoolyCharged posted:

Learning from history is a myth. The same people who died in the trenches of ww1 and dealt with it's fallout in ww2 went on to completely ignore the lessons they learned about giant global alliances and founded NATO and the Warsaw Pact.

Literally the same people that lived the past couldn't learn from it. It's like how all the jokes about how the history books will read on this when the ones with the most exposure(schools) will have a paragraph at most about it because it happened after ww2. Kids these days dont know what agent orange was, you think we are going to write pages on just how much we cocked it up?

If anything those conflicts taught us that giant global alliances in some form are the best method of preventing such conflicts, and that their failures were due to being undermined by nationalist agendas.

So, unfortunately it's you who managed to completely understand history backwards I guess.

Can see this playing out in miniature during COVID as EU members pulled up their drawbridges and backstabbed one another over PPE sourcing.

# ¿ May 23, 2020 17:01

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

I think WRT vaccines, there are many legitimate worries about timing and efficacy, but the chance that a dangerous vaccine is adopted worldwide which is somehow worse than COVID is as close to nil as something can be. If something that is claimed to work arises, this is not a situation where only America will start pumping it out and using it while the rest of the world watches and waits. It will be hitting everywhere at once (well, rich countries first).

And even if that were to happen in some freak circumstance, it would be the biggest scandal in American political history for the government to pump hundreds of millions into churning out a dangerous vaccine that nowhere else adopts. Hellworld or not, no government would survive that. The level of scrutiny on any COVID vaccine will be bigger than any other vaccine in history.

# ¿ Jul 1, 2020 16:13

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

Schadenboner posted:

I truly truly want to believe this.

Trump's base is old, white and hates government interference. They already don't like vaccines, and they won't like any mandatory vaccine, functional or not. If by some act of God, the American gov't alone greenlights and mandates the use of a vaccine that kills old people and doesn't stop COVID, that would be the end of the line.

No need to get your hopes up though, because that categorically will not happen.

# ¿ Jul 1, 2020 16:24

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

greazeball posted:

It's a great quote and relevant all the time, but boiled down, every scandal Trump has ever had is more or less just outrage and words without anything concrete on the ground. Nothing of the theoretical scale of that kind of bungle has happened in a very long time. Until COVID and the proceeding riots, no major events have even happened under Trump, especially from the point of view of Republicans, and his generally static approval rating reflects that.

# ¿ Jul 1, 2020 19:38

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

Fluffy Bunnies posted:

Can someone explain why this one is problematic to me? Because I mean, if you're literally not profiting off people who want to rent your home, I'm lost as to why that's bad. You're basically taking all the responsibility of home ownership on yourself while they just pay for the basic mortgage. You're still liable for repairs and everything; they aren't.

E: I'm not being snappy, I just honestly don't understand. Is the goal to do away with renting? Because some folks seem to want to rent rather than buy because of repairs and stuff like that? I really want to understand this.

Buy-to-let is basically profiteering on an essential human right - a home. If you think buy-to-let isn't for profit, you don't understand it. People aren't intending to break even. People already with money and a home drive up prices for everybody else because they are the ones most able to afford and qualify for buy-to-let mortgages, there is no intention of living in that property. On top of that, in times of crisis, BTL mortgages are extremely volatile because they are paid back with an unreliable income source - i.e. rent, which of course played a notable role in the Financial Crisis of 2008.

# ¿ Jul 1, 2020 19:57

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

Children don't spread it to adults because they are too short to cough directly into their faces.

That's just good science.

e:

unpacked robinhood posted:

It's because they're little so they lick each other faces but they can't cough into an adult's face. See my YouTube for other hard science takes

dang, a fellow man of science

# ¿ Jul 2, 2020 11:21

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

AreWeDrunkYet posted:

How do you even close those borders? That's hundreds (thousands?) of miles, much of it more remote than the US/Canada border that you can basically walk across in most places.

Well, you close the border crossings on the like, 10 roads that lead out of the country, and if some insane people want to walk into Norway to do ?, then they can. Closing off road and air travel routes blocks 99%+ of all human traffic. There isn't some mass exodus of impoverished, diseased Swedes waiting to cross empty tracts of National Parks just to get into Norway with what they can carry on their backs.

# ¿ Jul 6, 2020 13:53

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

Mithaldu posted:

Afaik the mortality rate depends on how well the health system functions and would only be influenced by being completely overloaded.

snip

Using the CFR as a death rate indicator is not a good idea. The discrepancy between countries alone shows that that data is worse than useless, it's actively misleading. 15% of people who caught COVID in Italy did not die, not even close, their figures represent more that their initial spike was early on in this crisis before mass testing was being rolled out. Thus their statistics are weighted heavily by more seriously ill patients who were hospitalised, and not diluted by the large amount of people who were sick and recovered without being tested.

Most scientists lean towards an IFR of around 1%, with regional variation based on age, healthcare availability and so on. If COVID had even a 5% fatality rate, we would be seeing something completely unprecedented in history, deaths would be into the millions and tens of millions.

e: unless you're talking Black Death, but still, it would be unprecedented in a different way

Jeza fucked around with this message at 17:52 on Jul 11, 2020

# ¿ Jul 11, 2020 17:47

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

Went on the Tube (London subway) for first time since March on Saturday. Masks are compulsory, but there was like zero enforcement, so lots of people just didn't. Was disappointing, kinda. Although there was like a big difference in adherence between lines, which was pretty curious.

# ¿ Jul 20, 2020 10:05

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

CarlosTheDwarf posted:

So if this virus had like a 50% mortality rate would we just start handing out the vaccine right now without finishing trials?

Everything would have played out so differently it's impossible to say. But yeah, of course testing and release can be expedited to various degrees.

# ¿ Aug 3, 2020 14:23

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

what kind of baker makes bon bons? are bon bons in America the same as they are in France or something else entirely?

Give me the FACTS

# ¿ Aug 4, 2020 19:34

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

numberoneposter posted:

That's what you call a catch 22.

American schools: either you catch a .22 or you catch 19

# ¿ Aug 18, 2020 13:08

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

Does anybody else find Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding's tweets kind of irritating? They get posted by the boatload in here but tonally he posts in a really...influencer-y fashion.

Don't get me wrong, maybe he's a good info source and definitely on the right side. But it's like he sees this pandemic as an ultimate self-aggrandising moment. Like he's trying to wangle this into some personal gain, and it really rubs me the wrong way. I wasn't surprised to find that he had recently run for political office.

# ¿ Aug 20, 2020 14:03

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

I. M. Gei posted:

Yes you did tell me that

but you didn�t tell me any alternative jobs I could do instead, and without that info what else do you expect me to do? Sure, �nothing� is the safest and least-mortally-dangerous option right now, but nothing doesn�t earn me any money, and it�s not as though I don�t have other important/necessary stuff besides that big purchase that I could use some cash for.

It�s not enough to tell someone that something is a bad idea. You also have to tell them what else to do INSTEAD OF the bad idea, or else they might still think the bad idea is their only option, despite being a bad idea.

It's not even enough to tell somebody what to do instead, probably safest to take the job in their place and just wire them the money.

# ¿ Aug 26, 2020 17:51

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

Mozi posted:

my uncle had to go to the ER w/ covid yesterday

i have decided i can no longer support this virus

have you considered how unfair this is from the virus' point of view? there are bad entities on both sides

# ¿ Sep 2, 2020 16:35

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

You don't go to the bar in most pubs at all right now. You order drinks via an app on your phone and they get delivered to your table.

There are a lot of good reasons why restaurants/pubs opened before schools and I think it's needlessly black and white to think that the original relaxing of rules for places like pubs is just toffs stuffing poor people into a grinder. It's not surprising in the least that large business owners have a vested interest in opening up, and will lean on the government to achieve that. But most private sector workers work for SMEs, and these are the businesses most at risk from an endless lockdown.

I don't think people fully appreciate the armageddon that is looming for small-scale businesses and the devastating impact that will have on a lot of people. The UK, and many economies like it, have implemented a lot of temporary stop-gap measures like the furlough schemes, business rate moratoriums, VAT deferrals, loans and so on. People look at the world around them and see things mostly ticking on as before, if a little quieter, and think the storm has been weathered more or less. It would be more accurate to say that the penny has yet to drop.

I think this thread of all places knows most of the best practice to reduce COVID, but in the end the strict measures that would be safest are also the most deleterious to people's livelihoods. Striking a balance between safety from the virus and safety from crippling the economy is the long-term key to managing the crisis. It's not a popular thing to say that lives should be balanced with the economy, but in the end, the economy itself is inextricably linked to the well-being of people, just as much as any public health disaster. I complete agree with Anonymous Zebra that part and parcel of a long-term plan involves restructuring the economy to be as COVID compliant as possible without the application of long-term blanket lockdowns.

# ¿ Sep 23, 2020 12:37

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

Xaintrailles posted:

The trouble with the "balance" idea is that the best thing for both people and the economy is going hard for eradication: locking down harder + test trace isolate + border quarantines, best implemented via green zones. Eradicate then open up and you get the economy back (everything but international travel) in a few months instead of grinding it away over what might be 2 years.

People can correct me if I'm wrong, but once the virus is relatively spread, eradication doesn't seem possible unless it was successfully dealt with at the start. And if it is, it would require a lockdown of unheard of severity and length. The story seems the same in almost every country. It spread, lockdown was instituted for 1-3 months or so, the curve was flattened for another month or two, and now cases are spiking again, leading to reintroduction of more severe controls. Lockdowns now serve as a delaying and mitigating tactic, but not one of eradication.

It seems like you only really got one shot at getting it right. Now that most places didn't, we're going to have to face up to a much more prolonged, uglier reality.

# ¿ Sep 23, 2020 13:20

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

"More" in this case being "two and a half times the previous maximum and still increasing", France's seven day rolling average hit a max of 4,537 cases per day back in April and is currently at 11,680

If that's due to improved testing then their testing regime back in the first wave must have have absolute dog poo poo.

The testing framework in most of the world, including Europe, was complete dogshit in March. Most testing revolved around people hospitalised and their relations/close contacts and frontline workers. Obviously there has been some progression in treatment protocol, but a good (but grim) way of seeing that difference is in death rates. March 15 - May 15 saw France go from ~100 deaths to over 27,000. In the 4+ months since then, there have 'only' been 4,000 more deaths.

At least in the UK, I can go out and get a test whenever tomorrow with ease. In March, that was categorically not the case.

# ¿ Sep 25, 2020 20:08

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

I can't help but think that if COVID just gave you boils and pustules, things would probably never have gotten so out of hand. Even if it was only half as dangerous.

# ¿ Sep 28, 2020 11:31

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

some seriously british bog goblin faces amongst that q anon crowd.

# ¿ Sep 29, 2020 10:34

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# ¿ Apr 27, 2024 03:43

Jeza: Feb 13, 2011; The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.

Fame Douglas posted:

It only needed to provide enough oxygen for like two minutes, though.

He's unlikely to have been likely to just drop dead in two minutes without supplemental oxygen if he was healthy enough to walk unassisted. Seems super unlikely to me, could be any amount of poo poo in his pockets. loving tube of pringles, perhaps.

# ¿ Oct 3, 2020 21:06

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