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Shimrra Jamaane posted:How does that happen. Presumably the person the poll calls tells them a tall tale, and then the newspaper fails to do any verification on it?
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Nov 1, 2020 17:16
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Nessus posted:I believe they still count just fine because you have a secret ballot, at least in principle. They probably count because checking every mail ballot for that would be a nightmare.
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Nov 2, 2020 03:28
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MaoistBanker posted:I mean, we might be very close to passing total 2016 vote by the time the polls open in Dick Suck, NH tomorrow night if I read a previous post correctly? Not overall (and not in NH, either)-----it might get to 100 million votes on Monday, but there were something like 130 in 2016. Some states are over 100% (Texas), and some are close, though (Florida!)
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Nov 2, 2020 06:27
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FYI: https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1323703416141549568
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Nov 3, 2020 20:13
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Rea posted:Expanding on that: I would be a bit careful extrapolating since there likely will be a post-5pm spike in turnout. It may look different demographically, but there likely will be more people than during the mid-day hours.
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Nov 3, 2020 22:03
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Phlegmish posted:Is there a site with an interactive map, where you can click on the individual counties and see provisional results and such? I think NYT might have had that in 2018, but not sure..
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Nov 3, 2020 22:46
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Kentucky has historically had some of the most restrictive voting laws in the country loosened this year because of COVID and an unexpectedly moderate republican SoS. Still has the bad 6pm closing time, though.
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Nov 4, 2020 00:42
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Grouchio posted:Why does NYT have Trump at a 75% win for NC when Biden's doing okay so far? Because they expect outstanding ballots to favor him heavily.
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Nov 4, 2020 03:03
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sincx posted:Looks like it There were 510K votes there in 2016. It's probably just missing the in-persons. Don't expect much out of it 
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Nov 4, 2020 03:57
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Anno posted:Don’t Biden and her have similar absolute turnouts in a number of these counties? It was more that a bunch of new people showed up to vote and they all voted Trump. Motivating otherwise-listless voters of a certain type has been a strength of his. Well, we don't really know that, do we? Maybe some people switched over and new ones showed up for Biden instead.
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Nov 4, 2020 18:59
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Sanguinia posted:Collins might. As I said, she has no scruples. Also no conscience and no soul. Give her something juicy that she can roll into the private sector with and make a mint in four years and she might take it. She clearly doesn't give a gently caress about ever advancing beyond the Senate in Republican politics or she wouldn't be a fake centrist. UN Ambassador? The job is mostly about expressing concern about poo poo we (are supposed to) feel bad about while not actually doing anything about it.
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Nov 5, 2020 19:02
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:I think so NYT somehow also didn't call Alaska. NC is going to be close... Alaska... not so much.
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Nov 6, 2020 00:27
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/BretBaier/status/1324532587956678656 About the only thing that makes this believable is that the Russian parliament is passing stuff about making him immune from prosecution if he retires.
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Nov 6, 2020 03:35
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Bootleg Trunks posted:Is Parkinson's itsself terminal? I've had 2 grand parents who had it but they both killed themselves. Technically, but it's not necessarily the most useful way of thinking of it, as it can take decades (and there is an awful lot to deal with during that time). Muhammad Ali made it something like 32 years after his diagnosis.
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Nov 6, 2020 03:50
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Killer robot posted:The idea that Trump was a laughably weak candidate who would have been beaten by anyone running a decent campaign was a bit of a dangerous simplification after 2016, even if it was understandable since his margin was so thin and the possibility that he had a lot of real support was so uncomfortable. Yeah, it's clear that there are lots of people who genuinely like him, and don't consider things I would consider utterly disqualifying an issue.
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Nov 6, 2020 05:38
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LabyaMynora posted:Everyone loves an astronaut. Name one astronaut who ran for office and lost - ya’ can’t. Bill Nelson
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Nov 6, 2020 20:12
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eviltastic posted:The person is very explicitly not making the argument that you seem to think they're making. They're not saying those people should've run on that platform. They're saying "defund the police" is not an explanation for lost seats as it's being presented. That doesn't follow, either. You're kind of assuming that the voters accurately know the position of their House candidate on the issue....
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Nov 6, 2020 21:04
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eviltastic posted:I'm not assuming anything, I'm saying that someone explicitly disclaiming commentary on whether something is electorally advantageous shouldn't be criticized on the basis of a position they reference not being electorally advantageous. Sorry, a few too many negatives here so I lost your point? What i meant is that candidates may get tagged with national issues regardless of their actual position on them, especially in a Presidential year, which is very national-focused?
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Nov 6, 2020 21:11
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sharknado slashfic posted:At this point I'd just like them to call a state. Pick one, any one. From what I've seen, technically they should call NC for Trump
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Nov 7, 2020 03:18
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Looks like AP also called NV (and NYT)
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Nov 7, 2020 18:21
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Lol Boris has absolutely killed the special relationship There are other things that kind of matter, too: quote:10.1%
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Nov 7, 2020 20:05
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TulliusCicero posted:I saw in nyt and it looks like Georgia is 12,000k in favor of Biden now, from what I saw of the margin, so it looks like they are done, and Biden won Complicated, will take a while: https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1325212237443731456
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Nov 8, 2020 00:23
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Ragingsheep posted:Isn't that most of the US though? It is, but a lot of parts of US have cities growing, while, well, the Rust Belt... is called that for a reason.
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Nov 8, 2020 00:42
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TulliusCicero posted:Columbus is like one of the most blue cities I have ever been to, and growing fast, but is surrounded by chudlands I am glad to be wrong on that --- I feel like the country would be better off with the growth better distributed. (Less in places with $3000 studio apartments, more in places like the Midwest).
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Nov 8, 2020 00:49
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Handsome Ralph posted:
Yeah, but MA is probably less provincial about stuff like that as long as it doesn't overly involve NYC.
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Nov 8, 2020 15:05
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VitalSigns posted:Number impossible Hmm, I wonder, maybe turn out isn't a normally distributed random variable but is dependent on real-life events that determine it? ... Looks like some medical school needs to rework their probability curriculum.
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Nov 9, 2020 00:34
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PerniciousKnid posted:If daily market movements aren't iid then what are they? Randomness isn't the opposite of predictable. Lots of things are neither predictable nor random (with a known distribution). Compare throwing a fair six-sided die 100 times vs. asking a human being to pick 100 numbers 1-6. Neither is predictable, but the former you can do math on --- you know that all 1s will happen with a chance of (1/6)^100. For a human-produced sequence... who knows? Depends on the human.
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Nov 9, 2020 01:40
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I wish people won't do that. They should call in how some guy named "Donald Trump" voted in Florida despite not living there.
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Nov 9, 2020 04:19
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Raenir Salazar posted:Nate VERY consistently kept downplaying the predictive power of his model and very consistently kept downplaying expections, "Trump could win!" etc, "The polls could be wrong again!" etc; while most of us in the thread were fairly confident that the pollsters corrected for 2016. I am pretty sure the core systemic reason is that it's basically impossible to come up with a good random sample so they're building increasingly complicated weighting band-aids to try to compensate, which just means even more incorporation of assumptions about how the electorate looks like.
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Nov 9, 2020 19:25
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LabyaMynora posted:https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1326305721118502913?s=20 This would be a lot more reasonable if the errors were vaguely normally distributed... I have a sneaking suspicion that they were very much not such.
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Nov 11, 2020 00:55
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Nessus posted:What would be an alaskan electoral scandal? I suppose a plane full of mail ballots could crash somewhere, that's actually a good premise for a movie or something. Otherwise, what, the bears gonna vote? King crab elected president crab? The sled dog eating a bag of ballots?
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Nov 11, 2020 03:23
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VitalSigns posted:it's funny because in the Federalist Papers they talk about this (to critique the Articles government), and bring up historical examples of republics that failed because a minority could obstruct everything and keep the government from being able to function, and it was impossible to fix because that minority can obstruct any proposals to reduce their ability to obstruct. Well, a lot of flaws in the Constitution at compromise they had to put in to even get enough states to sign in, i.e. result of minority obstruction over not wanting to give up a non-representative excessive amount of power..
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Nov 11, 2020 16:58
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DutchDupe posted:Yeah, and states largely will have certified their results before then. Arizona for example will have certified its results by Nov. 30th. PA is the 24th. Six states have certified already (none of them competitive).
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Nov 12, 2020 00:55
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plogo posted:I would say the Republican / moneyed interest alliance was becoming pretty strong by the end of Grant's tenure. Yeah, and similarly old-time racist Democrats had a lot of "poor frontier farmer" sort of appeal (besides all the plantation owners).
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Nov 16, 2020 18:26
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Aruan posted:Like, they’re bragging about their candidate winning in Montana... in an entirely safe district. In a state House race. It's meaningless wrt to winning at national politics; it's good wrt to having their viewpoint represented inside the party.
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Nov 17, 2020 05:00
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Majorian posted:
Pretty sure that always happens to some degree?
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Nov 17, 2020 19:58
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Pick posted:https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1328789117212250112?s=21 Wonder if it's places like Monroe, Erie, and Onondaga, i.e. the ones that have the suburbs?
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Nov 17, 2020 21:12
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Jaxyon posted:
No, Upstate is generally a midwestern state, e.g. swing.
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Nov 17, 2020 21:18
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So we were talking about this a bit yesterday: https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328901086883799041 This brings the total to: Biden 223,936 59.1% Trump 145,290 38.4% 2016 was: Hillary 188,592 54.2% Trump 136,582 39.3% Johnson 13,305 3.8% 2012: Obama 178,491 57.8% Romney 124,769 40.4%
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Nov 18, 2020 15:08
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