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Oil prices are going to be in the dumper for a while so ol'ilham probably has a plan. As for moral authority, both sides openly engaged in ethnic cleansing during the war and even today you have large populations in both countries that are refugees/descendants of refugees. I know in Azerbaijan at least this still carries a stigma and there are still families living in half-finished khrushchyovki on the edge of Baku.
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Sep 28, 2020 04:07
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Al-Saqr posted:Not really, Geert Wilders and the government of Saudi Arabia hate muslims in general so it's normal. Admittedly, it is hard to find a less Muslim city in a majority Muslim country than Baku.
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Sep 28, 2020 06:09
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Azerbaijan also operates Mig-29s as well, but yeah the Russians openly operate at an airport outside of Yerevan with the permission of the Armenian government. Also, they may just be SU-30s operated by the Armenian air force.
Ardennes has issued a correction as of 20:37 on Sep 28, 2020 |
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Sep 28, 2020 20:33
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I would say it is simply the inevitable result of the Pax Americana being unsustainable for more than a decade or two (if that) because...have you looked at the United States? Btw, the US has minimal pull in the conflict largely because the former US ambassador to Baku openly called for regime change in a few years back and permanently blew up US - Azerbaijani relations. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 20:44 on Oct 1, 2020 |
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Oct 1, 2020 20:40
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To be clear, the Armenian population of Azerbaijan was also liquidated and there are also a bunch of abandon villages in Azerbaijan as well. It is a pretty dismal situation.
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Oct 2, 2020 23:32
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sum posted:They're pretty different culturally, they speak distinct languages and obviously have a different religion. The roots of the conflict basically come from the fact that Armenia and Azerbaijan were in the middle of a war when they were mutually conquered by the Soviets (or reconquered I guess) and Stalin basically decided that the old front lines were a fine enough place to draw the borders for the new SSRs rather than reconsolidating them in an ethnically sensible way. This combined with the fact that the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute was literally the founding issue for modern Armenia (and to a lesser extent Azerbaijan) has lead to a stupid mutual politics of revanchism. A big issue is that while Nagorno-Karabakh, the oblast, is almost entirely Armenian...everything else around it is a mixed bag and basically someone had to lose after the dust settled. Azerbaijan was the first one conquered (due to its oil industry) and the defacto borders stuck. It isn't a situation where there was a "quick fix" where some group would not lose out since connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia would take putting a bunch of Azerbaijanis into Armenian hands and/or mass resettlement/cleaning. Also, according to wikipedia, relations with Turkey were the only things motivating Soviet decisions...which wasn't really correct. A lot of it is that that ethnic Azerbaijanis Bolsheviks, especially Narimanov, demanded it as compensation and getting the Baku communists on Moscow's side was necessary to get Baku in working condition which is the entire reason they were in the Caucasus in the first place. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 03:24 on Oct 3, 2020 |
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Oct 3, 2020 03:20
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sum posted:They gained a lot more than last time but their advance was still very marginal and didn't really capture anything of value even after expending seemingly all of their offensive capability. Their advance was limited to the southern foothills and at no point did it look like they were in a position to strike deep into the mountainous heart of the territory. It took years of rearmament and seemingly billions of dollars of spending and they got jack poo poo in exchange. It seems quite unlikely to me that Azerbaijan will ever be able to take Nagorno Karabakh by force of arms without dragging in other countries. They also showed their cards a bit by bringing out a ton of Turkish/Israeli equipment which is going to change future tactics. (Also, it is probably going to bind Armenia closer to Russia, because it seems to be the only power to have any interest in helping the Armenians in any serious sense). That said, does seem to have achieve its primary objective of getting the Azerbaijani populace to forget about the dire economic and financial strait of their country for a bit. I am sure the war wasn't cheap though.
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Oct 10, 2020 20:37
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sum posted:I mean I'm sure Azerbaijan would love to do ethnic cleansing but that's harder to do in the 21st century. Look at Kashmir and Palestine It isn't when Azerbaijan just points to international borders to make it acceptable.
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Oct 12, 2020 05:44
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PERPETUAL IDIOT posted:The two examples you gave about why it's so hard now to do ethnic cleansing aren't from the 21st century either. Now how about the ethnically cleansing of Armenians in the rest of Azerbaijan that was occurring at the same time? Even Azerbaijan nationalists admit it happened (there are still vacant Armenian Churches in Baku that are a bit hard to cover up.). I have noticed there is a trend trying to pretend the war during the 1999s was one sided and everything but... come on.
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Oct 12, 2020 16:58
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Zedhe Khoja posted:No one denies atrocities against Armenians and no one cheers for the Azeri government. No one posts "Azeri Strong" or "Go Azerbaijan!" Honestly its hard for most of the thread to hide their boners when Azeri soldiers get mulched. Eh, it comes up a lot, too much in fact, and does seem to be building toward a narrative of forgiving Azerbaijan for future ethnic cleansing because “the Armenians did it first”. (Azerbaijan is a Western proxy and Armenia is a Russian ally do it isn’t hard to see.)
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Oct 12, 2020 17:13
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sum posted:Nakhchivan was nearly half Armenian until the genocide. I mean it's still irredentism but it's not like the RoC claiming Mongolia or whatever Yeah, but the flip side of that is it was always majority Azerbaijani in the first place, so it is unclear why Armenia would have a claim beyond the usual in the Caucasus. Also, at this point most of Artsakh is vacant, it isn't that Armenians (in general) lack land but people willing to live in it. I doubt you are going to get thousands of Armenians in the LA area to move to Caucasus en masse to hold down the fort. Honestly, the best-case scenario is the Azerbaijani offensives run out of steam and the frontline stabilizes until an actual cease-fire takes place. There really isn't a "good" scenario otherwise. (That said, the actual long-term future of both Armenia and Azerbaijan are pretty hazy. Armenia doesn't really have the export base to really be competitive and they really can't detach themselves from Russia. Azerbaijan itself is going to eventually run its wells dry as they push deeper into the Caspian and doesn't really have a back up plan besides some NG exports.)
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Oct 13, 2020 22:06
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mila kunis posted:who needs that when you get pizza hut And after everything... he ordered it with combo toppings. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 23:10 on Oct 13, 2020 |
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Oct 13, 2020 22:58
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Armenia's hope at this point is that Azerbaijan advances have almost exclusively been in low-land territory and to reach Lachin, the Azerbaijanis need to force their way through an extremely narrow valley from the south (about 1000 ft) and nearly everything else is mountainous.
Ardennes has issued a correction as of 05:30 on Oct 23, 2020 |
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Oct 23, 2020 05:27
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bagual posted:new Caspian Report video on the conflict He is clearly showing his bias in that video btw.
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Oct 27, 2020 23:20
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bagual posted:Yeah the host is azeri, some of his videos were posted earlier in the thread and people discussed his bias, I should have posted the context as well, the maps always defaulting to Azerbaijani claims should tip people off. There are also arguments like Armenians moving to occupied areas being a "provocation" when Azerbaijan's have been living in Apartments in Baku/villages formerly lived in by Armenians for decades at this point. I always get an "Economist" vibe from whatever he does, he lays out the problem in a relatively none-insane manner and then you get bombarded with whatever obtuse point he is trying to make.
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Oct 28, 2020 05:09
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Vasukhani posted:Also, Karabakh wasn't "gerrymandering" the Georgian communists pushed for it to stay with azeribaijan, as they didn't want to set a precedent for losing Ossetia or Abkhazia. In general, in the 1920s, the soviets really did base their republics on ethnographic data, though flawed. A part of it as well is that the Soviets simply didn't want to overly favor a particular ethnic group in the region, and the Central Committee of the Azerbaijani SSR responsibility was continuity of oil production not ethnic partisanship (remember there was a bunch of Armenians in Baku working for the oil industry as well). Obviously, it was a compromise that didn't satisfy many. Also, areas around Karabakh weren't necessarily only Azerbaijani and you had a both Kurds and Armenians in certain districts. If anything Azerbaijan has already conquered the area that was undoubtably entirely Azerbaijani in the first place, and ironically weakning the justiciation for the continued conflict.
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Oct 28, 2020 05:31
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Dreylad posted:the one thing i learned from this war is that unless anti-drone capabilities really step up, drones are going to dominate infantry in any conventional war. Well if you are a country without well-integrated air-defense or at least some fighters, it will be bad. Armenia's problem is they had no way to contest Azerbaijan's airspace in any offense sense because all they had were a handful of CAS aircraft and while they had S-300 systems, they didn't really back them up with close in air defense which left them vulnerable. At that point Azerbaijan with heavy Turkish assistance could pick the Armenians apart piece by piece. If Armenia had at least some multi-role fighters it might have been a much more even fight.
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Nov 10, 2020 00:31
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aphid_licker posted:Yeah but then you always kinda have to ask where would they have gotten the money, or what other thing should they have cut instead to free the funds. Obviously, they couldn't that's the issue since Armenia doesn't have the cash to spend like Azerbaijan not with Turkish assistance. They were just screwed from the beginning. That said, Azerbaijan has a bit of a quandary at this point since while they won the conventional war. It is also unclear if they actually want to get bogged down in urban and mountain fighting to clear out the rest of the Armenian forces. As the conflict becomes more asymmetric, it may get more tricky for Azerbaijan since there won't be clear land targets to hit while their ground forces increasingly become overstretched. Also, Pashinyan is screwed and they are lynch mobs going around Yerevan looking for him.
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Nov 10, 2020 00:54
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aphid_licker posted:How bad is the peace settlement? Getting to keep Stepankert + a corridor and having the package guaranteed by the Russians seems fairly good to my ignorant rear end? Btw, I think the corridor is only a "virtual one" ie they have a right to cross it but it will be Azerbaijani land by yeah they would have to give up everything including most of the original autonomous oblast itself and I think Shusha. It isn't really a durable peace. Also, Pashinyan was the leader of Armenia's recent half-way color revolution, a big part of what is going on is Putin has been looking for a way to get rid of him.
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Nov 10, 2020 01:11
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PERPETUAL IDIOT posted:If the reports are true, there will be Russian soldiers to act as peacekeepers. Don't you think it's a little offensive to look at a place that has been ethnically cleansed of Azeris and occupied for decades, and just announce that obviously the Azeri refugees who are coming back to their homes are clearly going to ethnically cleanse the Armenians living in the area? For the hundredth time, Azerbaijan was ethnically cleansing Armenians in Baku and other regions at the same time. It was mutual brutality.
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Nov 10, 2020 03:18
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PERPETUAL IDIOT posted:There should be truth and reconciliation, right of return if desired, reparations, etc. for the victims of pogroms and ethnic cleansing in Baku. But it doesn't make the ethnic cleansing in NK or its ongoing occupation just, and it doesn't mean that the return of internal refugees to NK is some kind of ethnic cleansing campaign fait accompli. At very least this will likely lead to the ethnic cleansing of Shusha so yeah not great. If anything in the end, probably more people will be displaced by this conflict than resettled. Also just privileging the ethnic cleansing of one side over the other (which this is) isn’t going to lead to long term peace.
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Nov 10, 2020 03:28
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Al-Saqr posted:So the big question is what did Turkey gain by helping Azerbaijan win this war? Was the region vital to them strategically? Is there like an oil pipeline planned or something? If they wanted this as a test case for their drones it seems like it was a complete success in that regard. Domestic support because the Lira is still dropping like a rock and Turkey spent most of their currency reserves.
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Nov 10, 2020 03:50
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etalian posted:It's really not support, Baku made multi-billion dollars hardware buys after the last few wars to upgrade and re-vamp their military with the latest technology including drones with high loiter capability. It was pretty clear that Turkish personnel were also on the ground, it wasn't just arms sales. The story is that Armenia had a "half" color-revolution where the old government was thrown out and a new liberal government was put in, but unlike Ukraine they decided to stick with an alliance with the Russians and the Russian didn't directly react. However, it isn't a secret that the Kremlin still preferred to see that government out of Yerevan, but they weren't going to act directly to make it happen. When the war started (which I don't think was part of the plan), they basically did the minimum not to violate their alliance with the Armenians but were clearly not providing substantial support and when Azerbaijan inevitably won, Russia came in as peacemakers. Also, it probably should be stated that even for the standards of the former Soviet Union that Armenia wasn't prepared to fight a war. They didn't have an air force to really speak of and their S-300 systems (for example) were from the mid-1980s and most of their armor were relics. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 23:00 on Nov 14, 2020 |
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Nov 14, 2020 21:58
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i say swears online posted:An addendum, I thought the current Armenian government was elected on a revanchist platform, correct me if I'm wrong It was more anti-corruption/fatigue from the previous government, pretty standard stuff but Pashinyan himself is a hardliner and had previously talked up integrating Karabakh fully into Armenia and more recently promoted settlers to move to occupied territory. Raskolnikov38 posted:was the reason drones At very least drones are a way to obtain air superiority on the cheap versus an opposition with minimal defenses.
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Nov 14, 2020 23:07
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Zedhe Khoja posted:Nope, just started. Opening shot of where they're gonna open their store is less than a block from me at a building I nearly moved into so already off to a good start How is the metro doing these days? When I lived there it was pretty much a joke and it seems there has been some expansion...at least some time of compensation for the the Erdogan years. Admittedly, I was living in Istanbul all the way back in the 2000s when it was a pretty different city from what I heard. The night life was pretty amazing back then and comparable to Moscow. TKP hakkında ne düşünüyorsun mu?
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Dec 15, 2020 06:13
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(bir baskadir also has basically all it's city shots in my area, must be convenient for media companies somehow because it's not like mecidiyekoy and gulbag are rich)
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If anything nationalism needs to be that extreme considering the long term issues Azerbaijan has. It isn’t like the war actually gained them any economically viable territory and they are still banking on their remaining energy industry.
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Apr 12, 2021 20:08
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KirbyKhan posted:America's Test Kitchen just released a video on how to make Lahmajun and I thought about the Dr Oz ad. They fuckin did it, they became the most American Americans in America and I'm happy for them. They didn't hit it with a fistful of parsley and lemon juice...wtf
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Oct 5, 2022 23:12
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Btw Azerbaijan isn’t just demanding Karabakh anymore but pretty much all of southern Armenia at this point.
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Sep 12, 2023 22:58
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