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Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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The growing racial/educational divide in voting is somewhat worrying. White voters (especially those without degrees) are far more Republican than they were 20 years ago and Asians/Latinos are far more Democratic than they were 20 years ago. Who could imagine a world where the Democrat lost Ohio, Iowa, Florida, and nearly Wisconsin, but won Georgia (along with potentially 2 senators) and Arizona fairly handily.

I don't know what - or if - anything can actually be done about it. But, there will inevitably be another point where Republicans take power and having them more and more becoming an explicitly "white" party in a way that is a radical departure from even George W. Bush is not going to be a good thing.

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Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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Niwrad posted:

Are they done counting tonight?

Also someone in the Senate who is younger than me is weird.

Georgia Secretary of State Office said no calling anything tonight and "we might have a better idea of where this is around noon tomorrow."

If the vote totals are within 0.5%, then it will trigger a recount.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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Schumer aide says if they have a majority, then they will make additional (unspecified) COVID stimulus, confirming Biden nominees and judges, and passing HR 1 after the House sends them a new copy their early priorities.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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The Glumslinger posted:

Thats would be a good first few weeks, HR1 would help this country a lot

Those are all good (although it would be nice to get more clarity on what kind of additional COVID aid) and judges/H.R. 1 will be significant. But, for better or worse, it looks like they are deliberately going for the low-hanging fruit and probably not going to pursue anything that could divide the party.

Pelosi already announced they are reintroducing H.R. 1 on the first day of the new Congress:

quote:

Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Administration Chair Zoe Lofgren and Democracy Reform Task Force Chair Rep. John Sarbanes issued the following statement on Monday after re-introducing H.R. 1, the For the People Act of 2021:

“Our democracy is in a state of deep disrepair. During the 2020 election, Americans had to overcome rampant voter suppression, gerrymandering and a torrent of special interest dark money just to exercise their right to vote. Across the country, people of all political persuasions – including Democrats, Independents and Republicans – are profoundly frustrated with the chaos, corruption and inaction that plague much of our politics.

“That’s why House Democrats are doubling down on our longstanding commitment to advance transformational anti-corruption and clean election reforms by again passing H.R. 1, the For the People Act.

“H.R. 1 will protect the right to vote, ensure the integrity of our elections, hold elected officials accountable and end the era of big, dark, special-interest money in our politics.

“Our historic reform effort will clean up decades of dysfunction in Washington, return power to the people and build a more just, equitable and prosperous country for all Americans.”

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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smoobles posted:

Why are twitter pundits calling the races but no media outlets? I don't understand

Because there are outstanding provisional ballots and the race is too close with too few few votes left (~2.8%) to say for sure.

The NYT does say that they project Warnock to have a >95% chance to win and Ossoff a >90% chance to win, but they aren't calling any of the races until the final votes are counted.

The remaining vote is so small and the races are so close that, in theory, the last batch of votes could be extremely terrible and Perdue could win. They are playing it very safe.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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Sarcastro posted:

And for Christ's sake, people, even if Ossoff and Warnock were sworn in right this very moment, Pence is still the tiebreaker for two more weeks.

Pence doesn't get to vote on Majority Leader, though.

In 2000, before Jim Jeffords switched parties, there was a 50-50 split and nobody could elect a Majority Leader. They ended up with a weird power-sharing agreement where they split the committee chair assignments and Cheney would break any 50-50 votes.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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This is why all lawyers tell their clients to not say anything to police if you are innocent and to definitely not say anything to police if you are guilty.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
I have to admit, despite everything I honestly thought that Trump was protesting and whining to save face, deligitmize his loss, and that he didn't actually care or think he could reverse the election.

But, the call and the fact that he is apparently holding meetings with Pence and White House staff to threaten them to go along with his plans and consulting lawyers about how long he can stay in the White House are some sad and delusional actions, even for Trump.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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Vorik posted:

So after the initial loss of the senate in November all talk of packing the court disappeared. Do you think that's going to be back on the table now?

No, they have a 50/50 split and Manchin has said he doesn't support packing the court. There have been signals that they aren't going to pursue things that could divide the party and are going to prioritize COVID aid, appointments/judges, voting rights, minimum wage, some small tax reform, and immigration reform in the Senate.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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Angry_Ed posted:

But would Manchin support packing the court for a Scooby Snack money for things in West Virginia he can put his name on?

That's part of the COVID aid package. Manchin is very much in favor of the aid to local and state governments that was cut out of the last package.

They will get it put back in and Manchin will bring home the bacon.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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Kraftwerk posted:

What does this mean for Cabinet selection? Will it be easier?

Definitely.

None of the Democrats are going to block a Biden nominee.

There was some worry about what would happen if McConnell blocked a cabinet nominee indefinitely, Biden appointed an acting secretary, and they had to take a legal case to the Supreme Court to determine how much flexibility/time an acting secretary has when the Senate has "advised and consented" on the nominee already.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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For better or worse, it looks like a lot of the major action is going to happen at the executive level. So, it's good to see things like this:

quote:

The hunger crisis caused by the coronavirus outbreak requires action from the federal government to bolster the U.S. food aid network as it struggles to address heightened need, said Tom Vilsack.

He described the country’s food aid network as ill-equipped to handle a nationwide emergency like the pandemic, which set off a “cascading effect” of converging problems, among them a run on grocery store offerings that otherwise would have made their way to food banks, and a lack of refrigeration capacity at aid organizations when food did arrive.

Vilsack promised a swift reversal of changes made to the food stamp program under the Trump administration - including work requirements, monthly employment checks, and waivers for states - and vowed to push Congress to make the emergency expanded SNAP benefits authorized during the Obama administration permanent as a new baseline.

The crisis should “first and foremost” spur a rethinking of the formula that determines benefits available to participants in the nation’s food stamp program, which goes by the name Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, Vilsack said.

“The calculation of that benefit needs to be changed and increased,” he says. “It needs to certainly be increased now in the face of the pandemic, but frankly it has been underfunding families for far too long.”

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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It's kind of interesting that Ossoff and Warnock both ran behind Biden on election day 2020, but they (especially Warnock, who only got 33% of the vote in November) are both running much better than their previous elections and are actually running slightly ahead of where Biden was.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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LegendaryFrog posted:

Given that democratic turnout was roughly equivalent to the general election (with an uptick among African Americans) while GOP turnout was notably down, the close margin actually does appear to indicate that Trump’s “they rigged the election, your republican governor and secretary of state will ensure your vote doesn’t count” message likely contributed significantly to this loss.

The other weird thing about these results is that Warnock only getting 33% in November means that there is a not insignificant amount of Doug Collins/Warnock voters.

I have no idea what those people see in common there.

:shrug:

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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Sharks Eat Bear posted:

Man I am not all that optimistic for what a 50+1 Dem senate will be able to achieve given how many conservative Dem senators there are, but I take so much petty pleasure in thinking about how upset McConnell must be, even if only momentarily

They have been giving some details about what they will prioritize. None of it is especially bold, but all of it is good and passable. Immigration reform is the only one that might fall apart.

quote:

A Schumer aide says they are going to prioritize COVID aid, appointments/judges, voting rights, minimum wage, some small tax reform, and immigration reform in the Senate.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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I'd like to see an interview with a few of the ~42,394 Warnock/Perdue voters and ask them how they ended up at that decision.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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Shageletic posted:

Wait Tom Carper gets Environmental? When the hell has that ghoul said anything good on the environment?

Carper is actually very good on the environment. He's got a 100% rating from the League of Conservation voters in the last Congress and is one of the few Democrats who says that offshore wind farms and nuclear plants need to be built over NIMBY objections. It's always weird to see some Democrats say that climate change is an existential threat, but then say they are against nuclear power or preventing people from blocking offshore wind farms.

The credit card companies don't have anything to lose from that, so he has no need to be a hometown hero on the issue.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 14:19 on Jan 6, 2021

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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Mr Interweb posted:

poo poo, i didn't realize that one of the things biden can easily restore is net neutrality :dance:

The Dems on the FCC and Biden's FCC advisor - former FCC Chairman and Net Neutrality rule creator Tom Wheeler - have already laid out a list of FCC priorities when Biden nominates a new chair.

quote:

Restoring Obama-era Net Neutrality Rules
Restoring the FCC studies of zero-rating and issuing new rules
Increasing rural broadband access
Increasing access to broadband in under-served urban areas
Unspecified additional scrutiny of business practices of social media companies and online retailers
Would continue anti-trust investigations of tech companies
Push for (unspecified) changes to Section 230

The only one that may be iffy is the changes to Section 230, depending on what they actually are.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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Mainwaring posted:

Breyer probably retires. After that it probably hinges on another justice keeling over.

This is the overwhelmingly likely outcome. Breyer has not been very subtle that he would like to retire and that he wouldn't do so under Trump.

Other than that, there are no likely candidates for retirement or death in the next 4 years. Getting another younger Kagen or Sotomayor to replace the 80+ liberal justice will be good, but it is very unlikely that there will be 2 or more openings in the next few years.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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socialsecurity posted:

Has this really happened beyond that one time with Obama?

Ted Kennedy and Senate liberals killed Jimmy Carter's Universal healthcare plan because they though that Ted would primary Carter and have a better one in two years. At the same time, Dixiecrats that hadn't yet become Republicans were stalling his civil rights and military bills.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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My expectations are already fairly low, so I will be moderately happy if we can just:

- Get the extra $1,400 stimulus checks
- Have a competent federal government operating the COVID vaccine rollout based on science
- Make some good judge and cabinet appointments
- Stop the total and complete fascist and white nationalist takeover of the executive branch
- Hear a bunch of people complain about having to say "Madame Vice President," "Second Man," or pronounce "Kamala"
- Pass H.R. 1
- Expunge the remaining few thousand federal records for non-violent drug crimes
- Get the FCC, SEC, and DOJ back to their actual jobs and run by professionals
- Get the local and state government COVID aid and additional funds to distribute vaccines
- Get a national COVID strategy
- Have an intern go back to writing most of the @POTUS tweets

in the first year.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 14:57 on Jan 6, 2021

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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Little late, but at least some of the institutionalists are realizing this.

Although, to be fair to Reid, he was much less of an institutionalist after a few years as Majority Leader and it was other Dems in the caucus that wanted to uphold tradition.

quote:

Former Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada said that if Joe Biden captures the White House and Democrats win control of the Senate, then the former vice president should spend "no more than three weeks" testing the waters for bipartisanship before eliminating the filibuster.

Reid, a 30-year veteran of the Senate and former Majority Leader, said that Democrats will have big pieces of legislation that will encounter hurdles in reaching the 60 votes necessary to push through legislation.

"Biden — who wants always to get along with people — I understand that," Reid said to the Associated Press. "We should give the Republicans a little bit of time, to see if they're going to work with him. Let Biden follow through on his promise to try to change the tone, but once it is clear that they won't budge, then you can say, 'I tried' and get to work." Reid said. "But the time's going to come when he's going to have to move in and get rid of the filibuster. Give them 21 days, not 22 days or an indefinite timeline, and then get rid of the filibuster forever if you have obstruction."

"We want to get something done," Reid said to the Associated Press. "There's so much more to do and we can't do it if it takes 60 votes to get it done." He was emphatic that in order to get climate change legislation passed, then the rules would most likely have to be changed. "We were strung along and we had two or three Republicans who would eventually vote for our bills, so there wasn't as much of a compelling need to get rid of the filibuster. I got push-back from my own caucus when I eliminated it for appointments. But, I know there are lots of new faces in there now and the older Senators have lived through McConnell and have to know that, unless they start cooperating in good faith, then the only way forward is get rid of the filibuster. I've told the Biden team as much."

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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Cable Guy posted:

So Patrick Leahy, who I've never heard of and is...

:smith:

You've never seen Batman?

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
:10bux:

quote:

An Exuberant Schumer: ‘Help Is On The Way’

A discernibly upbeat Schumer celebrated the Georgia races during his press briefing Wednesday, saying that the $2,000 stimulus checks will be one of the first things he wants to get done when Warnock and (presumably) Ossoff are seated.

He said that he already spoke to Biden this morning and promised him that he and Harris have a “partner in me and my caucus.” He has not yet spoken to McConnell, he said.

Schumer added that he’s excited for Democratic senators to get to actively legislate. “All that talent has been bottled up,” he said. “They haven’t really been allowed to participate, to put legislation on the floor.”

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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Garland is fine.

It's basically Biden.jpg: Boring and good, but not the best.

He has a moderate judicial temperament (respecting precedent, giving deference to the government, and not making expansive rulings outside of the case at hand), but is a pretty straight-forward left-leaning liberal on policy.

On all the important things, Garland is where reformers and left-wingers generally want him to be.

- Went hard on white nationalist terror before it was cool

- Thinks the government generally has wide authority to prosecute businesses and corporations:

quote:

Garland has taken a broad view of whistleblower protection laws, such as the False Claims Act (FCA), which creates a private cause of action against those defrauding the federal government

quote:

Garland has shown a tendency to be deferential to the government in criminal cases against corporate entities.

- Thinks cops shouldn't get off the hook on technicalities

quote:

Garland dissented when the en banc D.C. Circuit reversed the conviction of a Washington, D.C. police officer who had accepted bribes in an FBI sting operation.

- Pretty solid on civil rights of unpopular people.

quote:

Garland wrote for a unanimous panel that overturned the Combatant Status Review Tribunal's determination that a captured Uyghur was an enemy combatant.

quote:

Garland dissented from the court's holding that former Iraqi detainees at Abu Ghraib prison could not sue private military contractors who participated in torture and prisoner abuse.

quote:

Garland wrote that the suit should be allowed to proceed because "no act of Congress and no judicial precedent" immunized the contractors from tort liability

- Solid on the 1st amendment.

quote:

Garland has "tended to take a broader view" of First Amendment rights.

quote:

In cases involving the Freedom of Information Act and similar provisions related to government transparency, "Judge Garland's rulings reflect a preference for open government."

quote:

Garland wrote for a unanimous panel rejecting the agency's Glomar response and ordering it to process the ACLU's FOIA request regarding targeted killings by CIA drones

- Minimal track record on campaign finance reform, but generally good. The AG has a pretty minimal role in campaign finance law either way.

quote:

In cases involving campaign finance reform laws, Garland has applied Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission when he believed that he was compelled to do so, but he has not sought to extend its holding.[/quote
[quote]Garland has said that the Citizens United decision exceeded the scope of the issue at hand and argued it was wrongly decided.

quote:

Garland wrote for the court in a decision upholding the constitutionality of lobbyist disclosure requirements under the Honest Leadership and Open Government Act

- Also, pro-seatbelts?

quote:

Garland acted as counsel to an insurance company suing to reinstate an unpopular automatic seat belt mandate in New Hampshire.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 18:52 on Jan 6, 2021

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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Phoix posted:

Monaco was heavily involved in trying to close Guantanamo Bay and got pretty close to doing it before Obama Hillary lost.

edit: names are hard

Monaco and Gupta are very good picks.

I don't know much about Clarke, but she is the President & Executive Director of the Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law and head of the Racial Justice project, so I assume she is probably solid as well.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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Biden will go down as the greatest President in U.S. history if he follows through with this and people stop calling me about an expiring warranty for a car I don't own.

quote:

Biden's director of telecom policy said that they expect the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to turn their respective regulatory views toward phone companies and other service providers to stem the tide of unlawful "robocalls" that may violate the Telephone Consumer Protection Act (TCPA).

He said that the FCC would look to propose new rules that would establish a registration process for international and domestic "gateway" service providers and VoIP hubs. They would also require major telecommunications companies like Verizon to preemptively filter mass calls from unapproved gateway services to prevent the calls from ever reaching the customer.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
Jon Ossoff's old tweets are amazing.

https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/343135488506470400

https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/427643507915116544

https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/401703031877939200

https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/263439891399057408

https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/457236056682037248

https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/337974129460408323

https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/243008824250875904

https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/535295747332517888

https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/451377466767310848

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
2,000 Riot Police have assembled downwind in case they need to use chemical irritants. Preparing to move, but still not moving on the capitol.

Smaller group of Capitol Police trying to secure the front steps and asking the mob to leave.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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Josh Hawley:

quote:

I look forward to order being restored to the U.S. Capitol and for Congress to finish the job we came here to do today.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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Protestors not leaving for curfew and playing "All you need is love" on stereos.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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Capitol Police say they have made "dozens" of arrests and will be "coordinating with FBI and using closed-circuit TV footage to bring further charges in the weeks to come."

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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NBC says FBI source tells them they are investigating QAnon groups online that may have organized groups that destroyed property.

Too bad Facebook got rid of the QAnon groups that had people posting with their real names a few months ago.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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Acting AG Jeffrey Rosen says this was "an intolerable attack on the capitol" and the DOJ will "take actions as appropriate." But, says it is "an ongoing situation" and doesn't commit to anything.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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Pelosi says Congress will reconvene tonight to certify the results. No Republicans have confirmed that they will object.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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Xander B Coolridge posted:

My tv just went out due to a storm. Can anyone share a good streaming news outlet?

CNN is streaming live for free right now.

https://go.cnn.com/

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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Senate will reconvene at 8 PM EST.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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CNN: Senate Republicans had a meeting to discuss abandoning all objections to certifying the results and protesting a different way. Trump is calling Republican Senators to get them to commit to objecting tonight.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
Ireland, France, Canada, and Germany have issued statements condemning the President for "inciting an insurrection against democracy."

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Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

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Ireland's Minister of State:

https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1346929675281559554

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