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How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth
I think that, going forward, folks and activists are going to have to hope that the fact that Biden was running against Trump was a more unique situation, and that Democrats will be more likely to take 'risks' in the future with regards to kicking out a candidate late in a cycle if credible allegations surface.

I was curious about polling on this issue, so some quick Googling seems to show the last time it was polled (that I could find) was May of 2020.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/06/politics/joe-biden-tara-reade-monmouth-poll/index.html

quote:

In a new Monmouth University national poll, almost 9 in 10 people (86%) said they have heard about the allegation, which is not terribly surprising, given that Biden's denial last Friday -- he said the alleged incident "never happened" -- drove news coverage of the allegations made by Reade throughout the weekend.

Opinion about whether the accusation is true is very, very divided. Roughly 4 in 10 (37%) -- say the allegation is "probably true" while 32% say it's probably not true, and 31% have no opinion.
Which isn't great news for Biden. Except that when you dig into the numbers one level further, you find this: Among the group that says the accusation against Biden is probably true, he still wins 1 in 3 of their votes. (President Donald Trump gets 59% among that group.)

What that means -- at least at this relatively early stage in the general election race -- is that there is a decent chunk of voters whose dislike for Trump or support for Biden overrides even their belief that Reade is telling the truth about Biden. They so want Trump out that they are supporting Biden even in spite of believing the unproven (and denied) allegation that he sexually assaulted a woman in the early 1990s.

...

It also might be that some voters -- at least the 32% of them who believe Reade's allegation against Biden but support him over Trump anyway -- simply prioritize other things over this allegation. Like the way Trump has acted in office. Or his policy positions. Or even his response to the coronavirus pandemic. Or one of a million abnormal things Trump and his administration have done while in office.

What the Monmouth numbers, more broadly speaking, seem to suggest is something old political hands have long known: Reelection races are ALWAYS a referendum on the incumbent. And to beat an incumbent, 95% of the work is in convincing people he needs to be fired while the last 5% is persuading people that you are capable of doing the job, if hired.

If that ~30% of the public at large that believes Reade but didn't care w/r/t their commitment to vote Trump out change their minds in a hypothetical future similar situation, then we would have gotten a new candidate.

Here's the Monmouth poll crosstabs themselves: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_050620.pdf/ The party ID breakdowns are on pages 7 and 8.

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How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Harold Fjord posted:

They could have coalesced around literally any of the other primary candidates. Only the donors have ever really mattered to the party.

The May 2020 polling I posted just a little earlier showed, in the Party crosstabs, that about 20% of Democrats reported they though the allegations were true, while 55% actively did not think the allegations were true and 26% said they didn't know. It's not just the donors, most Democrats either didn't believe her or didn't know/care, period.

e: I should say: according to this data from this snapshot in time, May 2020. I would really love to see new polling on the issue.

How are u fucked around with this message at 22:20 on Feb 18, 2021

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Willa Rogers posted:

It's an effective way to derail the thread so that it ends up closed instead of making some tummies hurt.

How is saying Tara Reade's name in the thread about Tara Reade a derail? How is being thoughtful and considerate of other people a derail?

e: ah ok, I gotcha vvvv

How are u fucked around with this message at 21:08 on Feb 20, 2021

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

PeterCat posted:


IDK, if the Republicans gain the House in 2022, I'd lay even odds they will.

Would you prefer this to happen?


This is really the crux of it, and it sucks. I desperately, desperately do not want this to happen, even if it meant some measure of symbolic held accountability for Biden. The stakes are just too high, we cannot allow a deeply fascist Republican party to gain control before we fix our democracy. I'm not trying to say it's Right and Good, but the world is messy and complicated and sometimes lesser evils are indeed the lesser evil.

It sucks.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

John_A_Tallon posted:

Until we are brave enough as a people to tell the gross fucks on both sides of the aisle to go away, and until we're brave enough to decide that forging a path forward without them is possible, we will always be under threat of a slightly less or slightly more repugnant group of people taking control.


Yeah I'm not as compelled by some idea of "being brave" because, as far as I can tell from the reality that I exist in right now today, if we end up with a Republican House and Senate in 2022 they will give the Presidential election in 2024 away to the Republican no matter what. They would have done so in 2020 if they had had the power and ability. It is crystal clear. That's an existential threat to democracy itself.

I understand that you are frustrated that every election is "the most important election of our lives!" and kind of sympathize. But, I mean, the facts are the facts at least as far I see them. For me its not about "being brave" its about wanting to keep living in a democracy.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Pentecoastal Elites posted:

If a rapist can get elected because the other side's rapist has raped more often, you'll never get to a point where you can have a system that excludes rapists (or racists, or war-mongers, etc).

That's not why I voted for Joe Biden. Him being accused of rape had nothing to do with my decision in the voting booth on November 4th. I was not tallying up rape accusations in my head and seeing who came out with fewer. I wasn't thinking "who is a better person? Trump, or Biden?".

More than anything else I voted for him because Trump had to go because, as was born out in the months following the election, the Republicans are fascists who want to literally end democracy in the United States. That's existential, and takes precedence over anything else, for me.

e: Biden's rape accusation was something I considered in the Primary, where I had already been a supporter of Bernie and Liz, but it certainly cemented my support for them.

How are u fucked around with this message at 21:26 on Feb 25, 2021

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Pentecoastal Elites posted:

My point is that if the Republicans are all actual fascists and do actually want to meaningfully end democracy in the United States and 1/6 was a for-real fascist coup attempt the game's already over and by voting for Democrats you're just delaying the inevitable.

I strongly disagree on this point. Utterly disagree. I think you can see how we can come to very different conclusions based off this disagreement.

How are u fucked around with this message at 21:47 on Feb 25, 2021

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

John_A_Tallon posted:

Democracies require maintenance. We've deferred and deferred and we are at the point where if we put it off any further we will not have a democracy anyway. The system as it stands is a practical oligarchy and that will not be addressed by either the immoral people you're voting for out of fear, or the immoral people you're effectively casting your vote against.

What you are actually arguing for is the idea that there are some masters you find less intolerable than others, because they allow you to continue to believe in the fiction that once they're in office they have any accountability to the people. The facts are that you are scared of the consequences of having to perform maintenance. There will be an uncomfortable period where one party "wins big" with a non-plurality of votes because of "defectors" who recognize that neither side will move in a desirable direction until they are forced to by being punished for choosing to run awful people. Every vote for a person like La Riva is a vote that scares the poo poo out of people like Pelosi and Biden because it's a vote that says, "Your time is done."

I understand you're a coward. You can choose not to be.

This is a pretty condescending post with a great parting shot, but I do want to respond to the fact that you're calling the end of American democracy and possible civil war "performing maintenance" and I think that's pretty hosed up. I do not want to live through something like that if it is avoidable, and I believe it is very avoidable. I think you're really underselling the dire consequences of living in a fascist dictatorship run by Trump Republicans.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Pentecoastal Elites posted:

I have provided an argument as to why I think that voting blue no matter who puts no directional pressure on the democrats and, instead, drives them right which leads inexorably to more republican wins. Can you give me an alternate mechanism that I'm not seeing?

I think we've all had the debate over the efficacy of incrementalism enough over the last few years that I can avoid hashing the same arguments out again in this thread. I've probably already diverted the talk from sexual assault in politics enough, and for that I'm sorry.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth
e: wow that's really weird and hosed up ^^^ Come on, NY Dems.

My impression just from reading the news is that Cuomo hasn't gotten away with it, yet. He's made a lot of enemies in his career.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Harvey Mantaco posted:

Bringing up Biden being a rapist with my liberal in-laws and extended family... woof

That's about the quickest and most handily this white boy has ever been dismissed. Probably a good lesson in humility. Didn't even have a chance to discuss, was just a roaring hurricane of not giving a gently caress and disengaged dismissal. Anecdotal I guess but people really just don't want to hear it.

The May 2020 polling that I linked earlier in this thread indicated that, at that time, 20% of Democrats believed Reade at all. I doubt that number has grown in the interim. You're probably not going to have a productive conversation about Joe Biden being a rapist with folks who flat-out don't believe it.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Willa Rogers posted:

Of course it hasn't grown; I'm sure the no. of Republicans who were polled & thought Trump was a rapist hasn't grown over time, either. That's no reason to not name & shame rapists in public office, and there's no moral superiority in being part of an incorrect majority.

I didn't say the OP shouldn't attempt to have the conversation if it's something they feel they should do. The OP did express surprise at the severity of the way they were shut down by their family, and I was just highlighting that the polling (unfortunately such old polling) indicates that's probably going to be a common response.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

PeterCat posted:

Most people in the US don't know about Tara Reade because the MSM buried the story and the coverage she did get was meant to discredit her. That's why I posted earlier that 2028 is the earliest we can expect to have the Democratic Party field a candidate who isn't Biden or Harris.

This is entirely false, and you can click the ? on this post to find the polling from 2020 that I posted earlier in the thread. Posting from phone otherwise I'd just link it all again.

e: made it home, highlighted the part of your post that is entirely false.

and here is the quote from this article that proves your assertation that "most people in the US don't know about Tara Reade" false:

quote:

In a new Monmouth University national poll, almost 9 in 10 people (86%) said they have heard about the allegation, which is not terribly surprising, given that Biden's denial last Friday -- he said the alleged incident "never happened" -- drove news coverage of the allegations made by Reade throughout the weekend.

Opinion about whether the accusation is true is very, very divided. Roughly 4 in 10 (37%) -- say the allegation is "probably true" while 32% say it's probably not true, and 31% have no opinion.
Which isn't great news for Biden. Except that when you dig into the numbers one level further, you find this: Among the group that says the accusation against Biden is probably true, he still wins 1 in 3 of their votes. (President Donald Trump gets 59% among that group.)

What that means -- at least at this relatively early stage in the general election race -- is that there is a decent chunk of voters whose dislike for Trump or support for Biden overrides even their belief that Reade is telling the truth about Biden. They so want Trump out that they are supporting Biden even in spite of believing the unproven (and denied) allegation that he sexually assaulted a woman in the early 1990s.

From this source: https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/06/politics/joe-biden-tara-reade-monmouth-poll/index.html

The Tara Reade allegation got plenty of air time. It was fully absorbed by Democrats, and 8 out of 10 Democrats decided that they didn't believe her accusation. You can hop into the crosstabs for the poll at this link, on page 16: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_050620.pdf/

e: edit to correct myself. 55% of Democrats responding didn't believe Reade. 26% reported that they didn't know if it was true or not. 20% stated they believed Reade.

How are u fucked around with this message at 18:57 on Mar 13, 2021

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Mind_Taker posted:

We were assured that no matter what Trump Must Be Defeated. Now that he has been defeated, it’s reasonable to replace Biden now right?

Reasonable to call for his replacement, but I definitely can't see how it would work in practicality. Would you 25th him? Pressure him to resign? I can't see either of those options building up enough support and pressure to actually work.

And then there's the knock-on effects from doing so which would, I imagine, be essentially blowing a massive hole in the Democratic agenda in this sliver of a moment where we hold the whole Legislative branch + the Executive. Because, to be clear, a concentrated and serious campaign to remove the sitting President would *end* any legislative progress on anything for who knows how long. That's stuff like a proposed multi-trillion dollar infrastructure bill, H.R. 1, replacing Bryer on the Supreme Court sometime later this year, etc.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Fister Roboto posted:

So when will it be an acceptable time to hold alleged rapists accountable?

I wasn't commenting on the moral rightness or wrongness of attempting to hold him accountable. I was clearly speculating on the practicality of doing so, what it would look like and how it would work. I think that's an important question to ask, if you actually want to hold him accountable.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Lester Shy posted:

Right, but isn't the whole appeal of the Democrats that they're a morally superior party?

Not to me, no. Many of the policies that the Democratic Party has proposed are definitely the morally superior choice compared to those of the Republican Party, to be sure. However, I definitely don't decide which party to support by first asking "who is the most morally superior?" Rather, I look at the policies they're pushing and, unfortunately because of our antiquated political system, have to weigh those against the alternative of Republicans in power.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Fister Roboto posted:

OK then, why do you think that the practicality of holding an alleged rapist accountable is something that should even be considered?

You're more than welcome to not give a poo poo about practicality or the real-world consequences of proposed actions, but I certainly think it's worth taking into consideration. Like, if you're actually interested in finding a way to remove Biden from office in the real world and not just shouting "he must be removed!" then you're going to have to figure out how to make that happen and that involves considering what the effects of doing so would be.


e: I really don't see how saying "OK, Biden must go. How do we do it? What should we expect?" is the same thing as "making an exception for for this particular rapist", as you've implied.

How are u fucked around with this message at 21:24 on Mar 15, 2021

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Verus posted:

Who the hell is gonna take these boy scouts on their big camping trip if we fire the child molesting troop leader?

I really don't know what to make of this response. The best that I can figure you are trying to say is: "Biden poses such an imminent threat to ______ that he needs to be removed immediately and the details don't matter." Is that close? If so I'd say sure, I acknowledge your sense of urgency and necessity, so how will we make it happen?

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Fister Roboto posted:

You haven't explained why it's relevant to the discussion yet. Why do we need to consider the downsides of removing a rapist from office?

The OP who I was responding to originally today asked:

Mind_Taker posted:

We were assured that no matter what Trump Must Be Defeated. Now that he has been defeated, it’s reasonable to replace Biden now right?

And I was responding to that. I'm not interested in your pure-hypothetical question, because I'm only interested in talking about the actual real-world examples of #metoo and misogyny being reckoned with in our politics right now.

But sure, in your hypothetical world in which it appears a rapist holds office and there's nothing more to it than that, as you have said, then there are indeed no downsides to removing him or her from office.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

some plague rats posted:

That is... not a hypothetical. That is the world you and I both live in. What??

If someone's position is "Biden must be removed", an entirely reasonable position to hold, but they're unwilling to then engage in discussing 1) how we accomplish it and 2) the potential rammifications of both engaging in that process and then succeeding, then they're not engaging with the world as it is.

"we should do this!"

"Ok, how? what will happen if we do?"

"what, you don't want to do it?"

If the discussion ends at "Biden must be removed." then there's not really anything else to talk about.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

The Oldest Man posted:

Was there ever an answer other than impeachment regarding how to remove Joe Biden from office on the grounds that he's a credibly accused rapist? He's certainly not going to resign over it.

As far as I can tell:

1) Impeach and Convict in the Senate, leading to removal.
2) Use the 25th amendment to remove via the Cabinet.
3) Public pressure and civil unrest to the point that resignation is forced.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth
That is very bizarre. I don't quite know what to make of it. Reade has every right to do whatever she wants, clearly.

I would think that if she was hoping for a second look from the American public, perhaps if more women came out and accused Biden of rape, a re-evaluation of #metoo, she wouldn't be jumping in bed with RT. Like, she's entirely within her right to do it but it just looks so bad. I guess she's well past the point of caring and just wants a sympathetic outlet no matter what else they do?

Also, saying poo poo about Putin as a "Lion" is hosed. I can't emphasize how wrong I think she is on her read of loving Vladimir Putin, and I boggle at why she's going to bat for him. Just say nothing about Putin!

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Jay-V posted:

It’s pretty clear there will be no “second look” into Biden from the American press anytime soon. They’re even carrying his water with all the concentration camp euphemisms, there’s overall very little appetite in digging further into what might be considered Biden’s negatives.

I think there would be if more women came out with accusations of rape. Cuomo is up to what, six or seven or eight accusations of harassment now? There's no guarantee of justice in Cuomo's case, but there's certainly a fight happening to try and enact some justice.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Jay-V posted:

Tara will get a second look if multiple accusers come forward regardless of her going on RT.

I agree with you on this, sorry if I wasn't clear.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Ghost Leviathan posted:

Apparently Northram is kind of a specific case given all of the options other than him are somehow worse, he's actually done tangible good things for minorities in the state and continues to do so especially since that's the only way he stays in power, and his reaction has been to apologise and accept fault rather than triple down.

The Commonwealth of Virginia also only elects Governors to a single term, no doubling up allowed. There was a hard cap on Northam's exit, and it seems that the Black wing of the Virginia Democratic Party decided for a whole host of reasons to stick with Northam and make him pay for every inch of that support. Given the circumstances it seems like they may have made the right call.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth
I guess one could make the argument that it is worth shutting down the State of New York in order to ensure one individual is punished, but that seems like collective punishment for the tens of millions of citizens of the State of New York who didn't have anything to do with the harassment and would have their lives severely disrupted.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

VitalSigns posted:

Surely the fault here would be on the sexual harasser who would rather let the government grind to a halt than do the right thing and resign...no?


Absolutely it would.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth
Biden has 10 accusers? Reade is the only one I've ever heard of.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth
Oh got it. Yeah with 10 accusers there is really no denying Cuomo is a creep who has to go. There is always a pattern.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth
Folks may disagree, but it is clear to me that democracy itself was on the line in the 2020 election, and I think Trump and the Republicans' actions in the lame-duck period that culminated in an actual literal violent coup attempt bear that out. I couldn't ever hold a 2020 vote for Biden against anybody.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Lester Shy posted:

To be clear, I blame Biden primary voters and the DNC apparatus a lot more than Biden GE voters, but I do think they have a responsibility to reckon with their choice now that the dust has settled.

Considering the polling from 2020 showed that, at the time, 55% of Democrats thought the accusation was not credible to begin with (only 20% reported that they did believe it was credible), I doubt there's going to be much in the way of reckoning.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

World Famous W posted:

And not voting for either. Three choices

Trump lost the election by ~40,000 votes across several states. I am enormously glad that more people didn't vote third party or opt out entirely.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Willa Rogers posted:

Most likely, imo: He'll decline to run again next year and instead get a federal appointment under Biden.

I don't see this happening at all. There's no way Biden would get into that mess by offering Cuomo a position. What's the upside?

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth
I dont read Biden as spiteful at all, heck he even sent rahm to japan!

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth
e: I see my question was answered while I made my post!

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

ram dass in hell posted:

This is a containment thread you created because you didn't want people to discuss Joe Biden's rapes elsewhere.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

I"m sorry, "rapes" plural? There was a single accusation, and a complete and utter lack of any other people following up with their own accusations. It's really quite striking when compared to other politicians who have been accused of similar.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Nucleic Acids posted:

There were multiple accusations of sexual harrassment that were also brushed aside by the media.

Do you have citations?

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Andenno posted:


But if I explain that climate change is real, I am endorsing climate change's underlying assumptions. If I explain that this court ruling is a necessary evil, that its principles are sound even if the results are flawed, I am endorsing the justice system's underlying assumptions.


If you are endorsing climate change's underlying assumptions then you are endorsing Physics, so that's kind of a weird comparison. I don't care for climate change either, but I don't think that Physics are unjust and need to be changed.

I do think that this ruling is unjust and wish it could be changed, but simply explaining "this is why this happened in this system" emphatically is not a 1:1 endorsement of that system.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Kalit posted:

I'm a little confused. I'm not trying to further a derail, but are you trying to say that only rich people have their cases/convictions dismissed because of mechanisms such as Brady Violations (/others you listed)? I hope you're being hyperbolic, because that is absolutely not true.

I'm a little bit confused by this, too. A lot of folks are asserting that Cosby got off because "he's rich" but it seems like the circumstances of his release aren't dependent on that?

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How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth
Yeah I think he resigned only because impeachment was 100% guaranteed, and this way he can say "well I was never impeached"

gently caress him. One down.

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