Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Kalli
Jun 2, 2001




http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Current Standings:

AFC:

9-4 Patriots
8-4 Titans
8-4 Ravens
8-4 Chiefs
--------
7-5 Chargers
7-5 Bengals
7-5 Bills
-------
8. 6-5-1 Steelers
9. 7-6 Colts
10. 6-6 Raiders
11. 6-6 Browns
12. 6-6 Broncos
13. 6-7 Dolphins
14. 3-9 Jets
15. 2-10 Jaguars

Eliminated: Texans (2-10)

NFC:
10-2 Cardinals
9-3 Packers
9-3 Buccaneers
8-4 Cowboys
--------
8-4 Rams
6-6 Football Team
6-6 49ers
------
8. 6-7 Eagles
9. 5-7 Vikings
10. 5-7 Panthers
11. 5-7 Falcons
12. 5-7 Saints
13. 4-8 Giants
14. 4-8 Bears
15. 4-8 Seahawks
16. 1-10-1 Lions

So.... in short, basically every game is huge for playoff implications, how wild is that?

BYE: Colts, Patriots, Dolphins, Eagles

TNF: Steelers @ Vikings - Steelers put themselves into the playoffs as the 5 seed with a win (for 3 days) and the Vikings keep themselves afloat.

Sunday
Cowboys @ Football Team - Would be hard for the 'Boys to lose the division, but this game would be a huge way to start that
Falcons @ Panthers - Pretty much a loser leaves town match
Ravens @ Browns - Browns need this bad. Ravens need... anyone to get healthy before the playoffs.
49ers @ Bengals - I guess we can still call the 49ers feisty, so two feisty wild card teams going at it.
Raiders @ Chiefs - Raiders schedule is mean as hell, they need this game, and probably like 3 more victories against the Browns, Broncos, Colts and Chargers to close the season, yikes.

Giants @ Chargers - Giants on the cusp of irrelevance, Chargers are somewhat maddeningly inconsistent, but the playoffs would be better with Herbert in there.
Bills @ Buccaneers - Unnnnfff, this is a sexy game. Though in the end, Buccaneers

And then there's 4 games that matter to 1 of the teams
Seahawks @ Texans
Saints @ Jets
Jaguars @ Titans
Lions @ Broncos

SNF: Bears @ Packers - Just what we need, the annual December execution of the Bears by the Packers.

MNF: Rams @ Cardinals - Hell yeah.

-------------------------------------------

Get to say goodbye to the Lions and Jaguars for good with a loss, and the Giants / Bears / Seahawks all join the Jets in moving from well... maybe to dead men walking with one.

--------------------------------------------

#1 seed thoughts:

NFC:
Cardinals have the Rams and @Cowboys remaining, which are super important, and have to be careful because they have a loss to the Packers. 6-2 conference record.

Packers are probably the odds on favorite for the bye. If the Cardinals drop either hard game, the Pack just needs to... sweep the NFC north and beat the Ravens and Browns.... yeah. 7-2 conference record

Buccaneers played neither of the Cards or Pack, but did beat the Cowboys. After the Bills, they also have 4 pretty easy games to close the season. Only have a 6-3 conference record though, so their path to the Bye requires the above two getting an NFC loss somewhere.

Cowboys have 4 divisional games left and the Cardinals. They need to most likely win out to realistically have a shot at the bye. 6-1 conference

Rams 5-3 in conference, need to beat the cardinals and probably win the rest of their games and still probably finish behind the Pack.

AFC:
Okay, so only two games separate #1 from #7 but we'll focus on the 8-9 win teams here

Patriots are 7-1 in conference, no one else is better then 5-3 Play @Colts, Bills, Jaguars and @Dolphins. If they win 3 of those games, they most likely are the #1 seed.

Titans: Candygram for Vrabel. Jaguars, @Steelers, 49ers, Dolphins, @Texans. If they can play okay ball, they can sweep this slate. Have a loss to the Pats, so need to finish 5-0 or 4-1 and hope the Pats go 3-1 or the Chiefs / Ravens make it a triple threat

Ravens - Have the Packers and Rams and a divisional slate to go. 5-4 in conference and that's a mean schedule.

Chiefs - 3-4 in conference, a loss to the Ravens and Titans. Have a divisional slate and Steelers and @Bengals. Need to... okay, basically they'd need to have a better record then the Pats. I don't think they win any tiebreakers against anyone otherwise.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020



Prediction:

Superbowl Loser: Whatever team gets the most rush attempts
Superbowl Winner: Whatever team gets the most rushing yards

worst team and human: Tom Brady Buccaneers

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010

There's only one prescription for Nazism and it's 76mm HVAP





Ultra Carp

It is extremely funny to me that the Lions are somehow technically still in it.

Cavauro
Jan 9, 2008




goal met for the season. if i don't win any more it was actually what i wanted so don't make fun of the cincinnati bengals.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001




The Bengals are super important to the playoffs, they play 5 contenders, 49ers, @Broncos, Ravens, Chiefs, @Browns

They need to win at least 3 of the AFC Games to realistically make it, and with how the Ravens and Browns are fading.... that looks like a pretty attainable road.

Impossibly Perfect Sphere
Nov 6, 2002


Kalli posted:

The Bengals are super important to the playoffs

A phrase rarely uttered.

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 9, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.


Stop wasting everyone’s times, the SB will be Bucs/Patriots because we’re in hell.

wandler20
Nov 13, 2002

How many Championships?


Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Stop wasting everyone’s times, the SB will be Bucs/Patriots because we’re in hell.

Isn't this your dream scenario?

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001




wandler20 posted:

Isn't this your dream scenario?

Shim listens to a ton of sports radio, so there has to be this all encompassing Belichick vs Brady narrative instead of not just rooting for the two greatest to ever do it Great it up some more.

Impossibly Perfect Sphere
Nov 6, 2002


Brady v Patriots Super Bowl is win win baby. Hope TFF enjoys the two weeks leading up to that game.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001




Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:

Brady v Patriots Super Bowl is win win baby. Hope TFF enjoys the two weeks leading up to that game.

So many star wars analogies except they're both the evil empire and the rebellion simultaneously.

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 9, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.


Kalli posted:

Shim listens to a ton of sports radio, so there has to be this all encompassing Belichick vs Brady narrative instead of not just rooting for the two greatest to ever do it Great it up some more.

This has nothing to do with sports radio. Sports radio is lusting for this matchup dude.

Tim Whatley
Mar 28, 2010



Pats Cards will be the Super Bowl. Idk why everybody is sleeping on the Cardinals. Book it. gently caress a Buccaneer

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 9, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.


Tim Whatley posted:

Pats Cards will be the Super Bowl. Idk why everybody is sleeping on the Cardinals. Book it. gently caress a Buccaneer

I don’t want this because I think it’s mean that the Cards finally make another super bowl the year after Fitz gives up the ghost.

wyoak
Feb 14, 2005

a glass case of emotion



Fallen Rib

i bet he'd get a ring if they won though

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 9, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.


wyoak posted:

i bet he'd get a ring if they won though

I’m sure they’d offer one but I have to imagine it’d be bittersweet. Kind of like Drew Bledsoe getting a ring for 2001. Don’t think he treasures it much.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001




The bye is so stupidly important that yeah I don't know why Pats - Cards isn't the presumptive favorite.

I guess the advanced stats kinda think the Cards are a bit weak because they played a month without Murray and Hopkins, but that's dumb.

Though the Packers have the easiest way to dethrone the Cards for the bye, and they're getting 3 guys back.

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 9, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.


Kalli posted:

The bye is so stupidly important that yeah I don't know why Pats - Cards isn't the presumptive favorite.

I guess the advanced stats kinda think the Cards are a bit weak because they played a month without Murray and Hopkins, but that's dumb.

Though the Packers have the easiest way to dethrone the Cards for the bye, and they're getting 3 guys back.

Cards are playing better on the road than at home for whatever reason, maybe strength of schedule at home vs away is the reason idk but it’s a thing. Same thing with the Pats actually.

wyoak
Feb 14, 2005

a glass case of emotion



Fallen Rib

Packers also have H2H vs the Cardinals, and everyone likes Brady/Arians or Rodgers/Lafluer more than Murray/Kingsbury (which is probably fair but not necessarily predictive)

There's also probably going to be a three or four way tie for the AFC 1 after this weekend and I have no idea how that tiebreaker shakes out

a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!


I hope the chargers make the playoffs

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 9, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.


a neat cape posted:

I hope the chargers make the playoffs

Beat the Chiefs at home and you’re probably gonna win the division. Maybe.

Hot Diggity!
Apr 3, 2010

SKELITON_BRINGING_U_ON.GIF


Packers can lock up the division this week with a win and a Vikings loss.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001




wyoak posted:

Packers also have H2H vs the Cardinals, and everyone likes Brady/Arians or Rodgers/Lafluer more than Murray/Kingsbury (which is probably fair but not necessarily predictive)

There's also probably going to be a three or four way tie for the AFC 1 after this weekend and I have no idea how that tiebreaker shakes out

Tiebreakers for seeding are:

1) apply divisional tiebreakers to get down to 1 team per division.
2) H2H sweep if applicable.
3) Conference record
4) Common games record if at least 4.
5) crap that doesn't matter

Pats have a 7-1 conference record, so other teams need them to either lose the division to the Bills or probably lose 2 games.

Pats and Bills are both 3-1 in division, Bills are 2 back so they have to win that game and then beat the Jets / have the Pats lose to the Dolphins or end up with a better record in common games which is currently:

Pats - 6-3 (Colts / Jags / Dolphins to go)
Bills - 5-3 (Bucs / Panthers / Falcons / Jets to go)

Then it hits conference record and if it hits that point, the Bills are done, they're 5-5.

Other conference records:

5-3 Titans
5-4 Ravens
3-4 Chiefs
5-3 Chargers
5-3 Bengals

H2H are pretty straightforward for the bye when it comes down to it. for breaking ties in the WC, it's very messy still.

Pats > Titans
Titans > Bills & Chiefs
Ravens > Chiefs
Bills > Chiefs
Chiefs / Bengals / Chargers don't have any relevant ones outside their division.

a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!


Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Beat the Chiefs at home and you’re probably gonna win the division. Maybe.

That would be neat

Nosre
Apr 16, 2002






Like 75% of the AFC contenders have rough schedules, particularly everyone in the AFCN

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020



NFC has to be Packers or cards.

Not sure about AFC at this point.

Are any of the top-ish AFC teams in a spot to surge and dethrone the patriots? Like any team getting some key dudes back from injury?

a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!


Nosre posted:



Like 75% of the AFC contenders have rough schedules, particularly everyone in the AFCN

Kinda love the Chargers stretch run compared to everyone else

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001




^^ Yeah, they're in a good spot and if they beat the Chiefs probably take the division since the Broncos / Raiders are both probably dead when you play 'em.

------------------------

Basically the Patriots need to pick up an extra loss, they win every tiebreaker I can find.

Chiefs are probably the most likely team to go 5-0 just because Mahomes probably unfucks that situation at some point and the Defense is playing well, tougher schedule though. Titans are also in a pretty good spot to shoot for it, but their injuries are so brutal... Ravens have the worst of both worlds, terrible injuries and tough schedule.

The 7-5 teams need to win out and pretty much have to have the Pats lose 2, so fart.

Impossibly Perfect Sphere
Nov 6, 2002


If the Bills can't handle their business against Carolina, the Jets and Atlanta, well they deserve to miss the playoffs.

a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!


The Chargers also have important tiebreaker agai st Cincinnati and Cleveland. Pittsburgh to a lesser extent since that tie fucks everything up

Play
Apr 25, 2006

So I roll with a rolling thunder
And I howl with the howling wind
And I drift downstream for as long as it takes
To get up and around the bend

Kalli posted:

Shim listens to a ton of sports radio, so there has to be this all encompassing Belichick vs Brady narrative instead of not just rooting for the two greatest to ever do it Great it up some more.

Real sports fans and people who like watching good football lose in this scenario though

In any case I don't think it's gonna happen. I think it's gonna be Chiefs Cards, for some reason. A shitload of red everywhere, it certainly won't be easy on the eyes

Actually now that I think about it the last two super bowls have been all mostly-red teams. Blue teams gtfo

Kalli posted:

The 7-5 teams need to win out and pretty much have to have the Pats lose 2, so fart.

Pats could definitely lose 2. Probably won't but it's a possibility to lose to the Bills (under better throwing conditions than last week) and the Colts.

Miami is also pretty loving tasty due to what we've seen in that week 17 matchup in previous years

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001




Play posted:


Pats could definitely lose 2. Probably won't but it's a possibility to lose to the Bills (under better throwing conditions than last week) and the Colts.

Miami is also pretty loving tasty due to what we've seen in that week 17 matchup in previous years

Of course, but at that point the Chargers / Bengals / Bills need the pats to lose at least 2, go 5-0 and have the 8-4 teams go no better then 4-1 and win tiebreakers on top of it. Just too much to type out for something unlikely to earn the Bye, so instead, fart.

Nosre
Apr 16, 2002




Fully expecting the Pats to have the 1 going into the last week only to lose to some afce shenanigans

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 9, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.


Week 18 in Miami seems almost destined for the Pats to lose in some baffling way.

Qwijib0
Apr 10, 2007

Who needs on-field skills when you can dance like this?


Fun Shoe

If the cards can beat the rams again, they definitely seem SB-bound. If they lose, I fear the slide and it'll be a WC spot and a round 1 exit. No middle ground.

Impossibly Perfect Sphere
Nov 6, 2002


Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Week 18 in Miami seems almost destined for the Pats to lose in some baffling way.

Fumbled kneeldown.

Play
Apr 25, 2006

So I roll with a rolling thunder
And I howl with the howling wind
And I drift downstream for as long as it takes
To get up and around the bend

Qwijib0 posted:

If the cards can beat the rams again, they definitely seem SB-bound. If they lose, I fear the slide and it'll be a WC spot and a round 1 exit. No middle ground.

they can beat the Rams again. I give them an 80-20 chance at least. if the Rams win they're gonna have a lot of stuff go their way


streaker necessitating a pause in the game allowing miami's defense to catch their breath and then pick off a mac jones two minute drive pass

Chucktesla
Jul 13, 2014



a neat cape posted:

I hope the chargers make the playoffs

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010

There's only one prescription for Nazism and it's 76mm HVAP





Ultra Carp

Play posted:

streaker necessitating a pause in the game allowing miami's defense to catch their breath and then pick off a mac jones two minute drive pass

ehud's sacrifice will never be forgotten

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Nodoze
Aug 17, 2006

If it's only for a night I can live without you

Pats losing in December in Miami is a tale as old as time

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply