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Burns posted:I think ultimately the only economic thing that would harm Russia's ability to wage war is if the price of oil crashes again. How to make that happen is outside my knowledge. It depends on your timeframe. In the immediate future, you're correct. Russia has managed to stay afloat rather well, and having India and China continue to buy their oil has certainly helped. In the long run, Russia is staring at a lot of economic pain regardless of what happens.
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Jun 23, 2022 21:02
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How the gently caress do you manage to get yourself encircled by an enemy moving at the pace of the Russian Donbas advance. Just fuckin leisurely stroll in a generally westerly direction
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Jun 23, 2022 21:28
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Count Roland posted:There's likely a recession on its way-- they often suppress demand for energy. OPEC could also massively increase its output, and US shale could ramp up in a big way. Yeah, I think cheaper oil can only happen if they find a way to push OPEC countries in increasing their output. I'm sure they have the ability to do so, but obviously they're enjoying the fact that the prices are skyrocketing. Has anybody posted popular front's documentary yet about anti-fascist football hooligans who are fighting for Ukraine?  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsodbPkjO3c (because there are some pictures of corpses at some point.)The interview with the old lady is heartbreaking. I mean, it all is.
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Jun 23, 2022 21:29
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aphid_licker posted:How the gently caress do you manage to get yourself encircled by an enemy moving at the pace of the Russian Donbas advance. Just fuckin leisurely stroll in a generally westerly direction A significant amount of the forces in donbas have 1 week of training.
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Jun 23, 2022 21:32
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FishBulbia posted:A significant amount of the forces in donbas have 1 week of training. Presumably not the officers looking at the map and making the decision when to withdraw from a salient tho
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Jun 23, 2022 21:34
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mrfart posted:Yeah, I think cheaper oil can only happen if they find a way to push OPEC countries in increasing their output. I'm sure they have the ability to do so, but obviously they're enjoying the fact that the prices are skyrocketing. Nationalize US oil production and start ramping up extraction. Do it, Biden, it's the only way to beat the Russians 
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Jun 23, 2022 21:48
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Count Roland posted:There's likely a recession on its way-- they often suppress demand for energy. OPEC could also massively increase its output, and US shale could ramp up in a big way. The Saudis are refusing to let OPEC up the production because they got pissy about the West telling them off for murdering journalists, so decided to take Russia's side in the first few days before the Russian wheels fell off
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Jun 23, 2022 21:51
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aphid_licker posted:Presumably not the officers looking at the map and making the decision when to withdraw from a salient tho The information regarding whether or not the soldiers in Zolote were surrounded is conflicting, some sources report that they are completely surrounded, others report that they withdrew, so it's still up in the air whether they are actually surrounded. IMHO, The biggest factor of why the Ukrainians stayed there is that retreating under fire is quite dangerous, so they may have been putting off taking casualties in hopes that the other lines would hold. Also, I think the Russians took the main escape route from Zolote unexpectedly fast a few days ago, which may have thrown a monkey-wretch in withdrawing from the salient, as they would be forced to retreat through flat agricultural fields. Disclaimer that my only military experience is playing Battle Tanx as a kid, so I have no idea what I am actually talking about. Chill Monster fucked around with this message at 22:02 on Jun 23, 2022 |
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Jun 23, 2022 21:58
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NTRabbit posted:The Saudis are refusing to let OPEC up the production because they got pissy about the West telling them off for murdering journalists, so decided to take Russia's side in the first few days before the Russian wheels fell off So start reaching out to Iran. Its well past time the Saudis found the dustbin of history and crawled into it.
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Jun 23, 2022 22:47
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36000 rounds of 155mm coming in as part of the 455m aid package. Good stuff. But more is needed. It's time for tanks and air assets to be released. No more loving around. Russia is threatening Estonian Air space and that needs to have a swift escalation of aid to Ukraine. They need to be repelled. Russia must devolve into ultra federalization where each oblast only cares about its own interests. If this does occur I think it is the clearest path for Russian collapse I don't think the Russian state is going to collapse I think it will devolve into confederations of oblasts working for each other and others becoming completely devoid of life post Russian rail being viable. To keep the trains running Russia needs foreign parts. Every train in Russia runs off of foreign made parts. I'm forgetting the exact name of the part but Caspian report talks about all of this pretty well: https://youtu.be/YzCoJXxb5xI
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Jun 23, 2022 22:56
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So is Covid having any impact on either army at this point?
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Jun 23, 2022 23:25
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aphid_licker posted:Presumably not the officers looking at the map and making the decision when to withdraw from a salient tho War is not an RTS
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Jun 23, 2022 23:29
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After siveierdonetsk, Russia will have to cross two rivers to make these gains meaningful. And I would presume the Russians are not ready to another river crossing after the last disaster. We've said this a bunch of times but river crossings are really hard to pull off without ending in catastrophic failure. And the Russian army doesn't have a lot of successes under their belts in that department.
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Jun 23, 2022 23:30
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the rat fandom posted:So is Covid having any impact on either army at this point? Probably not too much. Soldiers are mostly young. Probably alot of them have already had covid and/or been vaccinated also.
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Jun 24, 2022 00:06
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Burns posted:I think ultimately the only economic thing that would harm Russia's ability to wage war is if the price of oil crashes again. How to make that happen is outside my knowledge. Someone in the thread said that the Russian oil and gas industry is dependent on western parts and expertise. Sanctions should slowly cause the pumps and pipelines to stop working.
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Jun 24, 2022 01:50
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Oracle posted:So start reaching out to Iran. Its well past time the Saudis found the dustbin of history and crawled into it. The Biden administration tried, but the nuclear deal was easier to break than to rebuild. The Saudis are ready for a reset anyway and they've been ramping up production given how worldwide recession worries are already high. They haven't been as helpful as they should be, but they're looking for a way to "reset" their relationship with the US. https://thedispatch.com/p/saudi-arabia-welcomes-a-likely-reset
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Jun 24, 2022 01:53
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The X-man cometh posted:Someone in the thread said that the Russian oil and gas industry is dependent on western parts and expertise. Sanctions should slowly cause the pumps and pipelines to stop working.
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Jun 24, 2022 02:01
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Eric Cantonese posted:The Biden administration tried, but the nuclear deal was easier to break than to rebuild.
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Jun 24, 2022 02:29
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.  
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Jun 24, 2022 02:46
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The Heart and Seoul of Europe (alternatively, Picking Quarrels and Provoking Trouble) SEOUL, June 22 (Yonhap) -- South Korea has decided to establish a mission to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Brussels, a presidential official said Wednesday ahead of President Yoon Suk-yeol's participation in a NATO summit next week. South Korea is not a member of the military alliance but has been invited as a partner nation, along with countries, such as Japan, Australia and New Zealand. https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220622007451315
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Jun 24, 2022 03:16
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https://twitter.com/christopherjm/status/1540045848024948738
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Jun 24, 2022 03:17
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FlamingLiberal posted:Iran correctly realized that we are not a rational actor and can't be trusted. They're not going to take the chance that they make a deal with Biden only to have a future GOP president just throw it in the trash again. This is so superficial, it's hard to even find where to begin. A few things: 1. A country is not a person, but even if we pretend it is, changing one's opinion and going back on a contract is not irrational in itself. 2. If countries would only make contracts with other countries that both sides can expect to be valid forever, there wouldn't be any international agreements. 3. It's the point of a democracy that a different government can modify or terminate international agreements. I'm not a fan of the previous administration, to put it mildly, but if we apply the kind of mindset you imply, then any administration or government anywhere could enter into onerous international agreements that every future government would be bound to. The solution for any country that considers making a deal with any other country is to make it mutually beneficial from the start and have contingencies.
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Jun 24, 2022 03:38
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quote:Kherson was the first and so far the only major Ukrainian city captured by Russian forces since the start of the all-out invasion. It was occupied by the Russian army on March 3, seven days after President Vladimir Putin launched his new offensive. Feel like that would be news to the surviving people of Mariupol.
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Jun 24, 2022 03:54
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Deteriorata posted:Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. Kyiv looks beautiful this morning 🤗 (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 24, 2022 03:55
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/kremlin-rebranding-war-in-ukraine-as-officials-banish-z-symbol-zk385g2h7 Russia launches campaign against the "Z" symbol, removing it from buildings. This might also be tied to anti-corruption stuff, honestly surprised he managed to survive as head of an org like the SBU for so long.
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Jun 24, 2022 04:16
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Eric Cantonese posted:The Biden administration tried, but the nuclear deal was easier to break than to rebuild. Yeah, they've also been back in Turkey and now tourists are going there, I even know a couple people personally (both women, separately) who went this year. I think their image rehab is really on point now. Also Khashoggi wasn't just "some journalist" that MBS murdered, he was the Saladman fucked around with this message at 05:14 on Jun 24, 2022 |
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Jun 24, 2022 05:11
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We've taken in a woman from Ukraine and we've had a fun time demolishing each others positive opinions of the others government by sharing stories of ridiculous corruption and nepotism by Zelensky and Boris Johnson respectively.
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Jun 24, 2022 06:28
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a pipe smoking dog posted:We've taken in a woman from Ukraine and we've had a fun time demolishing each others positive opinions of the others government by sharing stories of ridiculous corruption and nepotism by Zelensky and Boris Johnson respectively. You will never find anything positive with regards to Boris though.  edit: crap, i forgot about possibly accelerating Irish reunification. Just Another Lurker fucked around with this message at 06:56 on Jun 24, 2022 |
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Jun 24, 2022 06:54
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FishBulbia posted:https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/kremlin-rebranding-war-in-ukraine-as-officials-banish-z-symbol-zk385g2h7 What do you make of this?
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Jun 24, 2022 07:37
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Herstory Begins Now posted:What do you make of this? I'm speculating here but supposedly the regime is very reliant on polls and surveys. Maybe they've simply found that the Z isn't polling well and they're opting to replace it with some new imagery with broader appeal; possibly trading it for something tapping into Soviet nostalgia which is widespread among regime supporters? Or maybe it's a pivot to decrease public reminders of the war? A calculus that the regime doesn't so much need the public jingoistically clamoring for the war (and hence speedy and decisive results) as they need a simple, quiet acquiescence to whatever strategy Putin chooses to pursue.
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Jun 24, 2022 08:05
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Maybe the cyrillophile faction inside Kremlin has finally gotten all the latinist traitor scum arrested?
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Jun 24, 2022 08:11
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https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1540232801882181632?s=20&t=onCEEweUbSsyL9pvENiHFA Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from Sieverodonetsk.
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Jun 24, 2022 08:20
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Just Another Lurker posted:You will never find anything positive with regards to Boris though. She thought he was the best thing since sliced bread and assumed everyone in the UK loved him. We told her some of the scandals going on and she said she thought that kind of thing only happened in Ukraine.
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Jun 24, 2022 08:30
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Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:This is so superficial, it's hard to even find where to begin. A few things: 1. It is absolutely routine to refer to countries in the singular while meaning the government of the day. Yes, you can re-negotiate a contract when something changes and that is routine. 2. International agreements are just another contract? 3. It is fairly common in democracy governments to not terminate contracts of a previous government without very good reason even if they personally did not and do not fully approve of the contract simply because of the goodwill and reputation burn that it incurs each time this happens. It is why in Australia the foreign minister and shadow foreign minister generally work together quite closely even as they swap jobs through election cycles. Both sides of Aussie parliament have the interests of Aus in mind (how to achieve that is where the differences lay) and know that a consistent foreign policy is absolutely beneficial to overall outcomes. Britain achieves the same thing by leaving a significant amount of influence on detailed policy within the civil service. A big chunk of resistance to Russian peace is the argument that the Russians can't be trusted based on recent past history and here you are implying that Iran should just get over itself and do another deal that you agree is likely going to be arbitrarily binned in possibly less than four years?
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Jun 24, 2022 08:55
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Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:This is so superficial, it's hard to even find where to begin. A few things: A country reneging on a contract should be able to demonstrate it's actually odious. It's in fact the feature of democracy that contracts signed in accordance with the law by one legitimately elected administration carry over to the next, since both have the same legitimacy vested in them by the same electorate. Only if conditions underpinning the contract materially change to make it impossible to carry out the stipulations of the contract, can it become legitimate for one government to reject a contract made by a previous government in a line of credible democratic succession. And to claim that because odious treaties exist, it gives the loving US of all states the right to unilaterally decide what treaties are valid or not, is pretty odious in its own way.
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Jun 24, 2022 09:03
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I'm wondering what OP thinks would happen if, every election, the new (or returning, "slightly different, with a fresh mandate") government just unilaterally cancelled all the international debts and obligations it had taken on during the previous term Free money - the life hack that international relations consultants DON'T want you to know
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Jun 24, 2022 09:16
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Just MLRS firing, but spoilering just in case a mod gets antsy. Seems like HIMARS is active on the frontline now https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1540256757230014466?s=21&t=XoIB8ltIvkRqZMJlZx2LCg
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Jun 24, 2022 10:08
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steinrokkan posted:A country reneging on a contract should be able to demonstrate it's actually odious. It's in fact the feature of democracy that contracts signed in accordance with the law by one legitimately elected administration carry over to the next, since both have the same legitimacy vested in them by the same electorate. Only if conditions underpinning the contract materially change to make it impossible to carry out the stipulations of the contract, can it become legitimate for one government to reject a contract made by a previous government in a line of credible democratic succession. Consider that many countries have had long successions of democratically elected government and yet they've somehow changed their laws over the years. By your logic, they'd have to demonstrate that the existing law is "actually odious" each time, effectively rendering any legislature unable to act to change pre-existing laws. steinrokkan posted:the loving US of all states Of course this had to be dragged to that level because we just can't discuss it in the abstract. Electric Wrigglies posted:1. It is absolutely routine to refer to countries in the singular while meaning the government of the day. Yes, you can re-negotiate a contract when something changes and that is routine. 1. Sure. 2. Yes. 3. Of course. I didn't say that going back on contracts is always legitimate, prudent or anything. I'm just saying it happens and contingencies have to be in place. Electric Wrigglies posted:A big chunk of resistance to Russian peace is the argument that the Russians can't be trusted based on recent past history and here you are implying that Iran should just get over itself and do another deal that you agree is likely going to be arbitrarily binned in possibly less than four years? Exactly, because this could always happen. See how Iran came into being. I'm sure that broke many contracts/agreements. All I'm saying is that it's naive to build any country's future on agreements with other countries that are based on the assumption that the other country will always be true to its word or held to the contract. Germany is just finding that out with Russia. Is it therefore a bad idea to enter into contracts? No, just don't expect them to last forever and try to make it so they're mutually beneficial immediately. This applies to contracts between countries, individual people, companies, everything.
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Jun 24, 2022 10:16
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Another russian administrator blown up in Kherson. Link is :nsfw: for blurry dead body  https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/06/24/7354377/
Mokotow fucked around with this message at 11:09 on Jun 24, 2022 |
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Jun 24, 2022 11:06
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Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:Consider that many countries have had long successions of democratically elected government and yet they've somehow changed their laws over the years. By your logic, they'd have to demonstrate that the existing law is "actually odious" each time, effectively rendering any legislature unable to act to change pre-existing laws. International treaties and domestic laws are in no way comparable. And treaties are, in international law, above domestic laws for this specific reason, and to avoid the sort of reckless attitude you advocate for. Obviously countries can't just decide to disregard or change documents that are multilateral in nature, for Christ's sake, unlike internal laws that are entirely matter of their own decision making. This is such a basic principle of contracts that is baffling it has to be even mentioned. If anything you are defeating your own argument because yeah, governments can change laws - by following a set and legal procedure, not by declaring arbitrary laws invalid. The same applies to international obligations, except the procedure is more rigorous and involves more state actors. Your arguments are toothless reactionary apologia for blatant disregard of perhaps the most universally understood, fundamental and sensible international norm, a position that can't be explained with any reasoning other than that you defend your theory simply because you are in favour of a particular policy it justifies. For this reason we can't really debate it in abstract since there is nothing to debate, the issue is as clear cut as it possibly can get, and instead it is appropriate to turn towards the apparent purpose behind advancing this talking point. steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 11:31 on Jun 24, 2022 |
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Jun 24, 2022 11:19
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