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It's not just kill counts. It's that the people replacing the killed are of dwindling morale. There was a story that Russians are refusing to attempt a crossing of the siverskyi river due to fear of catastrophe. https://m.facebook.com/watch/?v=1456313464816010 This isn't a situation that can continue forever. Spinning Donbass and luhansk borders as a win actually is good for Ukraine. If Russia slows their advance then UKR forces can re orient towards other objectives. Russia cannot hold all the front is currently has without losing little pieces here and there especially if there is a more dispersed Ukrainian army. They suffered huge casualties for a city that is the smallest of a few that stand in their path. Dinipro would be an absolutely horrific quagmire for Russia.
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Jun 25, 2022 06:05
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How many Ukrainian regulars are training on western weapons? Would 1000 skilled soldiers returning to the front make a difference?
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Jun 25, 2022 06:50
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Deteriorata posted:A few more victories like that and Russia won't have an army left. A few more victory retreats like that and Ukraine won't, either. It looks like Ukraine's only hope of recapturing any amount of territory is to hope that Russia completely exhausts itself, which is unlikely. I mean like, how's that Ukrainian offensive around Kherson going? I have seen approximately zero meters of gain on the maps for the Ukrainian side there. The big question for me is whether Russia can even manage to take Donetsk oblast. I would now be surprised if they try to go further, but they will probably also try to keep everything else outside Donbas that they captured as well, and where is the Ukrainian capacity to do anything about it? It seems hinged on hopes that small amounts of better equipment greatly change the day - but nothing I've seen incoming really suggests they will do well on an offensive of a major city like Kherson. I also don't see Russia simply collapsing in these areas it has now, like it did around Kyiv and the north. Gotta agree with the Baghdad Bob comment of "this retreat from Sievierodonetsk is a victory for Ukraine". At the absolute best interpretation for Ukraine, it's a Pyrrhic victory for Russia. But even that I doubt. They don't seem to have lost much armor (or we would have seen more videos), and based on how lopsided the artillery war was, probably also not much personnel. All they seem to have lost is like, millions of spent artillery shells, which appears to be fairly sustainable. I guess for counter artillery hits we wouldn't see videos of the aftermath, but still, everything coming out about Sievierodonetsk was like, not good news for Ukraine in the local sense, but good news for further-away Ukraine, in that this ancient and extremely slow artillery barrage advance tactic is the best Russia could do. Saladman fucked around with this message at 07:03 on Jun 25, 2022 |
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Jun 25, 2022 06:56
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Where are the claims of Russian heavy casualties coming from? Im not seeing alot of reports of that nature.
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Jun 25, 2022 07:02
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Dandywalken posted:Where are the claims of Russian heavy casualties coming from? Im not seeing alot of reports of that nature. The fantasies of pro western posters in this thread. Show me the Ukrainian advances that prove Russia is spent. Even the most pro Ukraine posters can't. Nobody can deny the beginning of the war was a huge disaster for Russia. But since they adopted their "bombard the poo poo out of the enemy" tactic, progress has been slow but unending. Another benefit is chewing up Ukrainians while taking minimal casualties themselves. I think a collapse of the Ukrainian army is much more likely than an exhaustion of the Russian army. To those who will say I'm wrong, where's the proof? There have been no important succusful Ukrainian counter attacks in the war. There have been strategic retreats by Russia, but no routs. The Ukrainian army has proven that it is incapable of counterattacking.
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Jun 25, 2022 07:21
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Dandywalken posted:Where are the claims of Russian heavy casualties coming from? Im not seeing alot of reports of that nature. NYT, DW to name a few. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.com/en/ukraine-says-russia-suffering-huge-casualties-in-sievierodonetsk-as-it-happened/a-62031616 (This one's a month old) https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2022/06/04/russia-losing-ground-in-sievierodonetsk-official/amp/
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Jun 25, 2022 07:22
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Ukraine and Russia will successfully overthrow the tyrant Zelesnkyyy (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 25, 2022 07:24
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Mirello posted:To those who will say I'm wrong, where's the proof? There have been no important succusful Ukrainian counter attacks in the war. There have been strategic retreats by Russia, but no routs. The Ukrainian army has proven that it is incapable of counterattacking. Yeah I know, western Ukraine has already been taken by the decisive Russian strike.
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Jun 25, 2022 07:25
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Mirello posted:while taking minimal casualties themselves *takes a big hit of copium* (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 25, 2022 07:26
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Mirello posted:The fantasies of pro western posters in this thread. Show me the Ukrainian advances that prove Russia is spent. Even the most pro Ukraine posters can't. All hail god emperor Putin whose glorious army managed to take the ruins of Severodonentsk after only a month of all out assaults, truly he's a military genius. But cool of you to come here to remind us that the Wehrmacht is actually going to win and everybody must surrender to the Reich.
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Jun 25, 2022 07:33
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According to reports from the west the russian army has been running out of supplies, men, and morale for the past 4 months and according to russian reports the same has been happening to the ukrainian side. I don't think anyone here can currently give an accurate assessment of the state of either side. The only thing thatcan be said for sure is that the russian army has been slowly grinding forward bit by bit for the past weeks and that Ukraine receives less gear from the west than it is requesting. To me this makes it looks like Russia does have the upper hand at this moment. Intuitively it would also make sense that in a battle of attrition the side with the existing stockpile would have an advantage of the side that has to hope for donations from others. On the other hand there is of course the possibility that russian stockpiles are running out and that the ukrainian army is letting the russians bleed themselves dry, but, as I said above, that's difficult to judge from the outside.
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Jun 25, 2022 08:47
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Mirello posted:T There have been no important succusful Ukrainian counter attacks in the war. There have been strategic retreats by Russia, but no routs. The Ukrainian army has proven that it is incapable of counterattacking. Yeah that's why the Russians hold Kyiv and Kharkiv right? Also you're against the democratic country and siding with the fascist judging by your post?
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Jun 25, 2022 09:16
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Vulin posted:According to reports from the west the russian army has been running out of supplies, men, and morale for the past 4 months and according to russian reports the same has been happening to the ukrainian side. I don't think anyone here can currently give an accurate assessment of the state of either side. The only thing thatcan be said for sure is that the russian army has been slowly grinding forward bit by bit for the past weeks and that Ukraine receives less gear from the west than it is requesting. Ukraine isn't winning, but the poster making a victory lap on behalf of Russia for accomplishing some of their ten times over scaled down aims while all but announcing the death of the West and the ascendancy of new Russian fascism was pathetic.
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Jun 25, 2022 09:22
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Vulin posted:According to reports from the west the russian army has been running out of supplies, men, and morale for the past 4 months and according to russian reports the same has been happening to the ukrainian side. I don't think anyone here can currently give an accurate assessment of the state of either side. Is this a bit? The Russian army retreated from several major fronts to concentrates on the Donbass and took a month to take Severodonetsk, if that doesn't give you an idea on the state of their army you might want to try simpler topics like football or computer games (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 25, 2022 09:27
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There's little point in arguing about who is taking bigger losses in battles where we have no reliable evidence from either side. All that we can tell is that Ukrainians are slowly yielding to heavy Russian pressure, can't launch meaningful counter-attacks and are calling for more big guns. Everything else is just dumb guesses.
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Jun 25, 2022 09:31
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Mirello posted:The fantasies of pro western posters in this thread. Show me the Ukrainian advances that prove Russia is spent. Even the most pro Ukraine posters can't. Neither can you provide any evidence for minimal Russian casualties, so I would suggest to get off your high horse. I have to also wonder what you classify the Kyiv or Kharkiv theatres as.
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Jun 25, 2022 10:24
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steinrokkan posted:All hail god emperor Putin whose glorious army managed to take the ruins of Severodonentsk after only a month of all out assaults, truly he's a military genius. In a war of attrition, who's going to win? Despite the sanctions, it seems like Russia is still better equipped (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-long-slog-2135fc2e76b71451f52e90eb6e5b2cac) and can hold out longer fighting in the East. Its tragic but I can't see any other conclusion at this point - Russia is slowly but surely moving that front forward.
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Jun 25, 2022 10:32
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There's only so far forward the front can move until Russia's inability to perform serious military logistics causes a breakdown like we saw around Kyiv. Russia is doing well only because they have retreated to the slim areas where they have a massive natural advantage. They are not going to be able to perform as well outside that area.
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Jun 25, 2022 10:41
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They're not even performing well NOW. The fact that the 'second best military in the world' is struggling to push back what was one of the worst militaries in the world less than a decade ago after concentrating their entire military on one front is pretty pathetic of them.
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Jun 25, 2022 10:43
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Not So Fast posted:In a war of attrition, who's going to win? Despite the sanctions, it seems like Russia is still better equipped (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-long-slog-2135fc2e76b71451f52e90eb6e5b2cac) and can hold out longer fighting in the East. Its tragic but I can't see any other conclusion at this point - Russia is slowly but surely moving that front forward. I mean yeah; slowly is the operative word here, since the progress is so slow it suggests continuing serious issues and extreme strain. Not to say Ukraine is doing well, but Russia adding microscopic amounts of land at a time is certainly not how they planned this phase of operations.
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Jun 25, 2022 10:44
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The lines of conflict are going to ebb and flow, if only slowly at the moment, for the duration of this war.
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Jun 25, 2022 10:58
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Not So Fast posted:In a war of attrition, who's going to win? Despite the sanctions, it seems like Russia is still better equipped (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-long-slog-2135fc2e76b71451f52e90eb6e5b2cac) and can hold out longer fighting in the East. Its tragic but I can't see any other conclusion at this point - Russia is slowly but surely moving that front forward.  (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 25, 2022 11:03
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Saladman posted:A few more victory retreats like that and Ukraine won't, either. It looks like Ukraine's only hope of recapturing any amount of territory is to hope that Russia completely exhausts itself, which is unlikely. The current assessment of sundry state intelligence groups is the this is not unlikely and is actually inevitable at the current rate of what russia is pushing its armies to do (and what it needs to use to carry forth a well-spent offensive in the immediate term) https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/25/ukraine-russia-balance-of-forces/?utm_source=reddit.com
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Jun 25, 2022 12:11
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Fascism brainworms spread to high culture https://twitter.com/nata_druhak/status/1540649250840891392?t=Y87tOr6Joxr4Q4UtqdNYbA&s=19
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Jun 25, 2022 12:33
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I have to also wonder what you classify the Kyiv or Kharkiv theatres as. "Feints", probably.
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Jun 25, 2022 12:54
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If you're interested in Russian propaganda narratives, how they are shifting and evolving, some of the Dozhd' people are now making videos in English (from Georgia, for a French-German channel) on that topic. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WwU2BSLr5oM There's a playlist on the channel if you want to see more. Keep in mind, the show is meant to be at least somewhat entertaining, but it does a great job highlighting the most prevalent trends and debunking the more egregious statements you can see on Russian TV.
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Jun 25, 2022 13:47
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Saladman posted:At the absolute best interpretation for Ukraine, it's a Pyrrhic victory for Russia. But even that I doubt. They don't seem to have lost much armor (or we would have seen more videos), and based on how lopsided the artillery war was, probably also not much personnel. All they seem to have lost is like, millions of spent artillery shells, which appears to be fairly sustainable. The general impression I'm getting is that Ukraine is manning its forward positions with TDF, which suffer heavily under Russian artillery barrages, while keeping their better trained units back for counter-attacks. Once the Russians do advance, they also often suffer heavy casualties. In absolute terms, I'm pretty sure the Ukrainians are suffering worse right now. But all the better trained Russian units have also been mauled. Have we heard from the VDV recently? As far as I know, the recent Russian advances have been led by Wagner and Separatists. No one seems to have any good estimates of Russian ammunition stockpiles, but they're not bottomless either, and their production almost certainly can't keep up with their current expenditure, even if they do have more robust production lines than the West. No idea if they do. You would think so, but then again, they didn't go into this expecting a long war either. Can they keep up their current style of warfare until they reach the borders of Donietsk oblast/the Dniepr/Kiev/Lviv? If you're willing to make any such statement with certainty, you apparently know more than any Western military analyst. Apparently, they've already been hauling ammo from Belarus to the front: https://t.me/insiderUKR/35294 Bug Squash posted:There's only so far forward the front can move until Russia's inability to perform serious military logistics causes a breakdown like we saw around Kyiv. Russia is doing well only because they have retreated to the slim areas where they have a massive natural advantage. They are not going to be able to perform as well outside that area. I don't disagree with that in general, but the key point is that Russian logistics will continue to function as long as they keep capturing (and repairing/maintaining/protecting) railroad connections.
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Jun 25, 2022 14:09
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Hannibal Rex posted:Apparently, they've already been hauling ammo from Belarus to the front: The same story but in English, for the lazy. https://twitter.com/motolkohelp/status/1540354447163146240
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Jun 25, 2022 15:33
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fatherboxx posted:Fascism brainworms spread to high culture Everything old is new again https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Futurism
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Jun 25, 2022 15:43
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cinci zoo sniper posted:The same story but in English, for the lazy. Oh dear, in the near future Lukashenko will give a press conference saying can't attack from the north as he no longer has the ammunition!!! 
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Jun 25, 2022 15:52
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Just Another Lurker posted:Oh dear, in the near future Lukashenko will give a press conference saying can't attack from the north as he no longer has the ammunition!!! His tap-dancing has been impressive. He’s always setting up his next excuse for why he can’t invade for some
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Jun 25, 2022 16:04
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SlowBloke posted:Everything old is new again Weren't russian futurists more lefty than their italian counter parts one thing that is certain is that they hated museums
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Jun 25, 2022 16:09
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FishBulbia posted:Weren't russian futurists more lefty than their italian counter parts Some of them were strongly aligned with the communist party, which told them to get stuffed after a while.
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Jun 25, 2022 16:15
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Icon Of Sin posted:His tap-dancing has been impressive. He’s always setting up his next excuse for why he can’t invade for some Im fine with that. The longer they stay out of direct attacks the better.
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Jun 25, 2022 18:16
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Burns posted:Im fine with that. The longer they stay out of direct attacks the better. It's great because as one of probably fifty Americans who even knew who Lukashenko even was before this war if you told me a year ago that he'd come across as the sane one I'd tell you ease off whatever drugs you were on.
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Jun 25, 2022 20:12
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https://twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/status/1540722787542654976 https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1540779466728755200?cxt=HHwWgMCq-d6w-eEqAAAA
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Jun 25, 2022 21:31
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https://twitter.com/bbcrussian/status/1540709601225560068 More changes around army recruitment. After these go through, it’s going to be legal for high school graduates to enrol into contract service directly, without serving their conscription term, and to deploy them into combat high schoolers with 4 months of training. The initially reading suggested deploying them after a month. These kids are going to be eligible for roles such as tank commander, seeing that we have several tank goons posting here everything now and then. Prior to this change, they would’ve been required to have at least a vocational degree, which implicitly bumped the minimum age from 18 to 19-20.
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Jun 25, 2022 21:41
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the popes toes posted:https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1540779466728755200?cxt=HHwWgMCq-d6w-eEqAAAA I'm still not convinced that the West actually wants to defeat Russia. Macron, Scholz, Draghi et al are going to seize the first opportunity that Putin presents them for a ceasefire and freezing the conflict, which probably means that Donbas+Kherson are staying occupied by Russia. They will offer Ukraine a poo poo ton of money and arms if they agree to the Treaty of Istanbul while Putin makes sure that the gas is flowing. Expect this to happen August-October, before the winter heating period starts and millions of regular Germans, French and Italians will face the question if they are ready to freeze (reduce heating by 1-2 °C) for Ukraine.
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Jun 25, 2022 21:56
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That's a great way to get tanks destroyed. By comparison, a tank commander in the US Army is typically an NCO with at least 8 years of experience, and often more than that. The most junior tank commanders are platoon leaders, and even they have several months of training and are typically provided with the most experienced gunner. Stoll, if you only advance under cover of massive artillery bombardment, you can make progress. Ukraine needs more counterbattery capability.
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Jun 25, 2022 21:58
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cinci zoo sniper posted:More changes around army recruitment. After these go through, it’s going to be legal for high school graduates to enrol into contract service directly, without serving their conscription term, and to deploy them into combat high schoolers with 4 months of training. The initially reading suggested deploying them after a month. These kids are going to be eligible for roles such as tank commander, seeing that we have several tank goons posting here everything now and then. What the sanctions probably will do is leave a large number of young people with much worse job prospects than before. Probably in the regions they weren't always too good to begin with. That legislation will streamline mobilizing them into the war.
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