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I'll join, seems like it'll be fun.
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Jun 23, 2022 14:57
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Jadecore posted:…you didn’t hear? I guess it’s a bit of a sore subject. The… the original Ball wanted to strike out on their own, get into other franchises. After a somewhat successful stint with Breakout games, they tried to go even farther and, well. They died in a stunt accident during the production of Bomberman: Act Zero. It wasn’t pretty. The Ball always was an independent spirit, always bouncing off the paddles and wandering off the edge of the screen. Maybe if they'd stuck around, they could've been there to stop the upper paddle from being taken.
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Jun 28, 2022 18:29
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Sorry for being quiet, work was busier than usual. This has pretty much been covered already, but I think the hidden setup of the game pushes us to vote for someone D1. If we knew the ratio of mafia:town, or knew how many town members (if any) have role actions, that could skew our decision away from voting someone out. Since we don't have any information to work with yet, it seems like our best option is choosing someone to vote for based on general posting vibes. Then when we see what their role was, we can investigate people who did or didn't vote for that person based on whether they were or weren't mafia. I think it's worth keeping track of people deflecting votes from one another D1, since mafia are the only people with enough information to confidently defend one another. A last-minute chaos vote makes votes less reliable information for catching mafia, so anyone supporting that is at least slightly suspicious. If I had to pick right now, I'd maybe vote for MSRR? All of their posts after game start have been either about voting for chaos or generally sort of aggressive (I wouldn't be surprised if I caught a vote from them after this). Then again, it feels like someone who would want to avoid getting thrown out wouldn't post in a way that draws attention to themselves like that.
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Jun 29, 2022 22:08
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My Second Re-Reg posted:Despite being A Real Vet™, Plastic hasn't actually done anything yet, so I don't feel the need to suspect them of anything. Meanwhile Green Wing and NeverHelm seem to be making each other's arguments for themselves and, conveniently, both turned on me at the same time, for.... the crime of saying that nobody has anything solid to go off of? I didn't pass ~the vibe check~ because I pointed out how attempting to direct public opinion this early on reeks of attempting to steer control of the group? This post is almost bringing me around, but I'm not really convinced that NeverHelm is scum. Unless someone blatantly implicates themselves somehow in the next 19 hours, I think I'm gonna ##vote My Second Re-Reg
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Jun 30, 2022 03:02
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wologar posted:I know I agreed that Re-Reg's posting was anti-town (although they got better), but I think the pile-up on votes is bandwagony. There's bound to be scum in the last few votes, either jumping at the chance to execute town or just leaving a teammate to the wolves. I disagree with this. I'd argue this is pretty much how the votes will drop every time- We held most of the structure of a simple trial. We started with accusations, each side made arguments, and each side made closing statements, dropping votes alongside their conclusions.
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Jun 30, 2022 15:39
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Shellception posted:Night phase: Thread will be closed. During night phase, mafia players will be allowed to attempt to kill a player, removing them from the game. Night actions that are part of roles will also take place during that time.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:24
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Sorry, I meant to add more to my post there before posting: D2 will be our first chance to react to/discuss the results of the D1 vote and the mafia's N1 murder. Hopefully some of us have cool town roles that will help us gain information! The possibility space for roles feels huge, so I think it's going to be difficult to figure out what new information is real and what's mafia trying to throw us all off.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:29
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Green Wing posted:I was vaguely wondering if MSRR was going to make a defence by claiming to have a power role, to be honest. I think that's the only thing that could change things at this point, and even then might not. A final-hours role claim would be surprising, particularly since it's impossible to verify.
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Jun 30, 2022 18:52
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Bucnasti posted:Like I suspected MSRR was a townie, which to me implicates everyone who piled onto them early, especially Green Wing. Scum want town to vote Green Wing or NeverHelm here, otherwise they would've killed one of them overnight. Green Wing in particular was completely transparent about their reasoning throughout D1, and even voiced doubt about the MSRR vote, though not strong enough doubt to unvote.
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Jul 1, 2022 20:33
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I agree that Green Wing is likely town. Mafia wouldn't post nearly as much, with varying theories, side-theories, and explanations. It'd be too easy for them to out themselves. I'm also convinced that they avoided murdering Green Wing last night specifically because they expected town to follow up on MSRR's suspicions and go after the people who argued to vote MSRR out.
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Jul 1, 2022 21:45
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Bucnasti posted:There were only 2 of us, originally it was just me, but MSRR joined to fill in for a no-show. I thought Plastic was the person who joined to fill in for the missing player.
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Jul 1, 2022 23:02
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PlasticAutomaton posted:So to start off, this is really bothering me. It's a massive leap that seems to be trying to immediately discredit Buscreti's theory without directly calling them scum. I apologize for the rough phrasing there, bad combo of being excited that day 2 was starting and rushed phoneposting. I wanted to get the idea that mafia intentionally avoided targeting Green Wing or NeverHelm posted ASAP, and didn't think too hard about whether I sounded accusatory or not. I don't think the scenario I proposed is a massive leap, though. I think it's completely plausible that the mafia intentionally avoided targeting Green Wing or NeverHelm as their night elimination. Green Wing and NeverHelm were guaranteed to be under town scrutiny immediately after D2 started, and it would be easier for the mafia to convince town to vote either of them out than it would be to convince town to vote out a more innocuous poster.
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Jul 2, 2022 02:55
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LupusAter posted:I still think that focusing on who wasn't killed isn't going to get us anywhere at this stage. There's just too many people and too little opportunities for the scum to kill someone. No one is claiming that not being killed implies anything on its own. We're adding the context that there are people who posted a bunch of theories and reasoning during day 1, and that those people present a potential threat to the Mafia. It feels reasonable to say that the mafia has an incentive to use their night action to take out players who present the highest threat to them. As of night 1 the person who had done the most deduction and debate was Green Wing. But instead of taking out Green Wing, they opted to oust AFancyQuestionMark, who hadn't posted anything particularly controversial, and primarily agreed with other posters' reasoning. I personally think the mafia must have considered taking out Green Wing then decided against it, hoping they could convince town to vote her out. Given that added context, do you still disagree with that idea?
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Jul 2, 2022 19:25
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NeverHelm posted:Caffeinated Jerkoff is much less active, and a lot of their posts are speculation about the scum team's motivations. Some of that could be attempts to mislead, or to gain credibility by looking "insightful" later. The fact that they are pushing the "scum deliberately avoided Green Wing" narrative so much is indeed curious. Among the more probable candidates I think. I can explain my behavior, if it helps. A lot of my posts have been speculating about the scum team's motivations because I like that kind of deduction. Putting yourself in the enemy's shoes to try to determine their next move is fun. I definitely got ahead of myself earlier calling out that scum would want us to vote Green Wing, I should've waited to see if anyone was going to join Bucnasti in pushing for people to vote for her. I got so excited about a scenario I thought of being possible that I rushed to post instead of waiting to see if it was actually happening. I blindly defended the possibility for a few posts, but seeing so many people baffled about my posts has made me realize that the theory I was pushing doesn't really get us anywhere. My bad! I would not make a very good detective, apparently.
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Jul 3, 2022 01:45
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Since I've been called out for reads a couple of times now: Bucnasti - Slightly mafia. Mostly posted mechanical questions D1. D2 instant vote is a strange move, and pivoting into a role claim from there didn't really decrease suspicion. Nobody contested the role claim, so it's probably true? But since it's unconfirmed mason, it doesn't really point town or mafia. Cloacamazing! - Probably mafia. All of her posts have been either mechanical explanations, filling postcount for the sake of postcount, or explaining why all of her posts fit the former two categories. Hasn't placed suspicion on anyone, or posted any theories. cuntman.net - Slightly mafia. Responds to other people's theories a lot, asks a lot of questions. Asking questions is good, but I haven't seen him take any particular stance on any of the things he's asked questions about. That's a little suspicious. Green Wing - Probably town. Posts theories, questions, and reasoning consistently. Gets a little carried away with theories/suspicions, but generally sensible enough to acknowledge when that's happening. If she's mafia, her posts are an incredible smokescreen. Hyper Crab Tank - Slightly town. Has posted theories, suspicions, questions. Nothing particularly stand-out suspicious in their posting. Jadecore - Slightly town. Has posted theories, accusations. Unvoted from MSRR to prevent an early hammer drop- either a town indicator or a scum rep-building move. Based on the rest of her posts, I'm leaning towards town indicator. LupusAter - Probably mafia. Aside from agreeing with the MSRR vote, most of his posts have been countering others' arguments and reasoning. He was the first to say Bucnasti's role claim was probably true, with slight implication in that post that Bucnasti is also town. Also critical of the case against Plastic. Might just be a 'justice for the underdog' type, but my read right now is probably mafia. NeverHelm - Probably town. Posts theories and reasoning, isn't shy about accusing people who seem suspicious. PlasticAutomaton - Probably mafia. Positioned himself as the local veteran player, then moved to leverage that status as an excuse to post less. No theories or reasoning, only excuses, jokes, and rules clarification. PlasticAutomaton posted:Hi, Mafia Dad here, I do need to step in and correct one misconception about this.  Jokes aside, I do think his low-content posting is a mafia indicator. wologar - Slightly mafia. Lot of neutral/information posts, but started posting more theories and accusations day 2. Could be following the flow of the thread voting for Plastic to avoid sticking out? Difficult to get a read on them. Maybe I'm just wearing myself down trying to go through everyone's posts. I'm leaning towards voting PlasticAutomaton for D2, but I'd like to see them defend themselves before making a decision. That said, I assume they're going to be primarily pointing the vote at me as their defense. By my own criteria, I probably fall into the Slightly mafia category. I hope I can stay in the game long enough to improve that impression.
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Jul 3, 2022 22:52
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wologar posted:"Everyone, including me, agrees that Plastic is the most suspicious player. Thus, I'm unvoting him." My initial reaction was the same as yours, but thinking about it, I think Green Wing has a point. Before Green Wing's unvote, 3 people voted Plastic, 5 were leaning towards voting Plastic but wanted to see evidence, LupusAter seemed unlikely to vote Plastic, and Cloacamazing! hadn't posted yet. I think Green Wing wanted to avoid the scenario where 3 of those 5 undecided posters are scum and could collaborate to vote out Plastic. In that scenario Plastic would be town, so the mafia would get another 2-elimination round. Dodging that and having another day of discussion seems worthwhile.
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Jul 4, 2022 07:10
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Green Wing posted:Ok, screw it. The role claim offer is bugging me, too. We don't have enough information D2 to guarantee we vote out a mafia member, and there's no evidence of a town protective role existing. So a town role claim would at best maybe catch a mafia member, and at worst redirect votes to a town member. Either way, if Plastic is town and claims a town-aligned role, odds are the mafia would run him out of town during the next night. Doesn't seem worth it at all. Of course, if he's a mafia member, then claiming a town role would be completely safe. Without claiming a role, would you mind explaining why you said you'd reveal your role if necessary, PlasticAutomaton? I'm assuming it's something you can explain in terms of general game intent, without giving further hints about the hypothetical role itself.
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Jul 4, 2022 18:51
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LupusAter posted:Thing is, it's not a useful train of thought right now. With a single datapoint, it's at best reading tea leaves and at worst deliberately wasting time and effort. You're not wrong about us not having enough data to be 100% certain about mafia motives, but being on the correct side of an argument that doesn't help town find the mafia is also wasting time and effort. I know that's pretty rich coming from me, the guy who was pushing the wrong side of that argument for the first 30 hours of day 2, but I realized I was wrong and moved on to post about the thread's current suspicions and theories, and you're still correcting people. Who do you think is mafia, and why?
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Jul 4, 2022 19:16
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cuntman.net posted:so something about this has seemed weird for a while and i didnt realize why until now. at the time, the only other person who voted for green wing or was even suspicious of green wing at all was bucnasti. so if you follow this theory to the conclusion then it can only point to bucnasti. but none of your posts named bucnasti at all until you dropped the theory My suspicion was 100% circumstantial, so I didn't want to hard accuse Bucnasti unless something else came up to support the idea that they're scum. I had my eye on what they were posting for a while, but after the whole mason rules mixup deal I didn't feel like pursuing it anymore. I still think they're suspicious, but not enough to try to push for a vote on them.
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Jul 4, 2022 23:25
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PlasticAutomaton posted:Oh yeah, it's quite simple. If I'm about to get voted out, then there's really no harm in outing what I am to give town maximum information. Worst case scenario, I still get voted out and town can be pointed right at the ones pushing me. Best case scenario, scum is forced to burn a bullet on me. It's doubly a good idea in this case since wologar's been arguing "he has to have an important role or is scum," and that's been basically the only reason stated to vote me. That's an interesting way to think about it. I guess I was undervaluing the amount of information town gets after a vote, since it's been sort of hard to figure anything out from the D1 vote in this game (I assume that's normal for D1 votes). PlasticAutomaton posted:That's interesting. If you're not going to push on who you think is suspicious, then who do you want to push on? It's a degree of suspicion thing. I thought Bucnasti was suspicious because they fit my expectation for what scum would do early D2, but they've since walked back their suspicion and tried to identify mafia using the D1 votes and people's posts. If they'd doubled down instead, that'd put them over the threshold of suspicious activity I'd expect from mafia, and I'd start trying to get people to vote for them.
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Jul 5, 2022 04:54
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PlasticAutomaton posted:(Also I re-read, and of the people not voting Day 1 I'm still most stuck on Wologar.) I forgot to ask: Why do you think there's mafia within the group who didn't vote on Day 1?
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Jul 5, 2022 05:02
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I just read back through the thread from the start of Day 2 looking at every mention of Plastic, and the case against them. Suspicion against Plastic started with HCT pointing out that Plastic's missing Day 1 effortpost is suspicious. wologar followed up with the assertion that Plastic's role must be important. As the thread moves on, several other people voice suspicion of Plastic, largely either due to Plastic's inactivity or the missing Day 1 effortpost. wologar only begins to back down after suspicion is turned on them, based on their primary reasoning for voting Plastic. From what I can tell, the case against Plastic is: 1. He promised an effortpost D1 and forgot to post 2. He hasn't been posting much/hasn't been helping town 3. His role must be important because the game couldn't start without it I'd argue that's a bad case. The first point is a mistake, not malice. Plastic has actively tried to remedy the second point, by arguing that there must be at least one scum who didn't vote D1, and trying to narrow down who that is. And as far as I can tell, wologar is the only person who believes the third point. I was suspicious of wologar as of my list post. I got less suspicious of wologar when they posted their list, because their takes seemed to agree with my own. But looking at the history of mentions of Plastic from D2 onward, wologar starts to look strange. Everything wologar has posted from this post onward really hasn't helped. They got frustrated that Green Wing backed off, then when heat started to direct at them, they questioned their own case and backed off. I think the frustration post might indicate that wologar's scum. Instead of asking themselves why Green Wing backed off, they lashed out and implied that they thought Green Wing was scum. ##vote wologar While I'm sticking my neck out with an accusation... This vote is a bus: Cloacamazing! posted:I've been going back and forth between wologar and Plastic Automaton, and I'm still not entirely sure, but with the most recent posts, my gut feeling is on wologar. End of day is coming, so ##vote wologar .
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Jul 5, 2022 19:00
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Caffeinated Jerkoff posted:I just read back through the thread from the start of Day 2 looking at every mention of Plastic, and the case against them. Oops, I accidentally omitted the most recent point in the case against Plastic: Plastic's soft role claim. These two posts form his explanation: PlasticAutomaton posted:Oh yeah, it's quite simple. If I'm about to get voted out, then there's really no harm in outing what I am to give town maximum information. Worst case scenario, I still get voted out and town can be pointed right at the ones pushing me. Best case scenario, scum is forced to burn a bullet on me. It's doubly a good idea in this case since wologar's been arguing "he has to have an important role or is scum," and that's been basically the only reason stated to vote me. PlasticAutomaton posted:The whole crux of the argument involved roles, so I figured I'd be open and pledge to claim if needed. It's not even saying I actually HAVE a role, I could just be loving with scum after all. I was suspicious of the soft role claim, but his explanation seems fine, particularly since the soft claim was "I might have a role" and not "I have x info because reasons"
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Jul 5, 2022 19:37
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But I'll be stepping out for errands and be around before deadline, so offer's on the table if people are still concerned.
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cuntman.net posted:it does seem like theres something up with wologar but is doubling and tripling down like this really something scum would do? if they were scum and really wanted plastic automaton gone so badly they could just go for a nightkill. im sure itd raise suspicion towards them but not any more than is happening right now wologar isn't double and tripling down, they've retracted their vote and are speculating about what would happen if all of their suspicions were wrong, and what would happen if they and/or Plastic got voted out "what if wologar is a cop" feels like grasping at straws. If they want to claim it, they can do that
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Jul 5, 2022 19:56
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Green Wing posted:(apart from asserting that Cloaca is definitely bussing which I'm uncertain of) That's fair. The accusation was intentionally a little inflammatory, because she voted with minimal reasoning and I wanted to see if I could get her to respond. Seeing her reasoning, I regret making the assertion so aggressively. Her take on the wologar vote is reasonable and something no one had pointed out yet.
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Jul 5, 2022 20:07
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Shellception posted:After all the excitation last day died out, search parties were arranged to look for Blue Ghost. The search did turn up nothing, but nobody else went missing - the event seemed to finally have brought everyone together. I guess there are more complicated roles in play than we expected. Good job, whoever stopped the mafia!
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Jul 6, 2022 20:17
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Bucnasti posted:So no nightkill, what exactly could that mean other than a successful defensive role? There are roles that can sort of cancel another player's role action. So either we have a town protective role, or a town-aligned role blocker, I think?
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Jul 6, 2022 20:25
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Jadecore posted:I realized I'm not 100 percent sure: what's EXLO actually mean? A loss condition, obviously, but I can't quite interpret the acronym. There's a useful glossary in the Mafia Discussion Thread OP For Exlo specifically: The Mafia Discussion Thread OP posted:● Lylo (Exlo, ELO) - “Lunch or Lose” (also known as Exlo or ELO for “Execute or Lose”), referring to a situation where the players must vote someone out that day, or scum are likely to win through gaining control of the vote after another Night Kill.
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Jul 7, 2022 01:19
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cuntman.net posted:so heres something thats been on my mind: earlier in the day, people were more interested in voting out plastic automaton before the momentum shifted towards wologar. cloacamazing was the one who cast the vote to put wologar ahead and caffeinated jerkoff voted right after that. theres probably plenty of good reasons for that, it was nearing the end of the day and we had to vote for someone, and people were already waffling on plastic automaton, but it still feels off to me. i think at least one of them is scum for that reason. obviously jadecore and i are suspicious for the same reasons but i voted because i didnt want the day to end without a vote and i get the feeling thats also what jadecore did 2 hours passed between Cloacamazing's vote and mine. 30 minutes passed between Jadecore's vote and yours I do think Cloacamazing is probably scum, but whatever you're doing with this part of your post is either bad deduction or straight-up trying to give people a misleading impression
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Jul 7, 2022 05:09
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cuntman.net posted:well the time periods before those were 7 hours and 30 hours but sure okay (sincere) I think the shift probably started around when Green Wing revoked their Plastic vote. wologar getting upset about that wasn't a good look, and right after that Plastic appeared to start scumhunting
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Jul 7, 2022 06:23
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Hyper Crab Tank posted:I should clarify, nobody except Green Wing, but that's only very recently. In fact, going back to read posts from day 2, both NeverHelm and Caffeinated Jerkoff had Plastic as "probably scum" but still voted for wologar. And both of those also voted Re-Reg day one, whatever that means (almost nothing). Jadecore also had Plastic as the most likely scum candidate but didn't vote at all. Pretty much all of the read lists were made like a full day or more before the votes. There's a whole lot of posts in between those two data points
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Jul 7, 2022 14:26
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I'm a little conflicted about the whole 'daytime execution vote' situation, but I'll add my vote in to ##eliminate LupusAter. I've been getting a scum read from them since the middle of Day 2, and I don't really believe their reasoning about NeverHelm.
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Jul 7, 2022 21:53
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Ooh, that's a nice boost for town! I guess we also got lucky that they didn't block the town protective last night.
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Jul 8, 2022 02:20
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Maerlyn posted:LupusAter votecount I'm gonna guess one scum joined the vote and one didn't. I'm also optimistically assuming there are only 3 of them Cloacamazing! posted:I'm opposed to the idea of kicking LupusAter out at this point. I'm a bit suspicious of most of the lurkers and non-voters because it's hard to get a read on them and might be a sign they're busy posting in their Discord channel, but it's not enough for me to cast an elimination vote here. Add to that, while people are swinging back and forth on the matter, nobody has really spoken up against voting him out, which scum would have an interest in. ##vote Cloacamazing! As far as I can tell, most everyone felt at least a little bad about the elimination vote. Until the flip, I was feeling pretty much the same way Jadecore described in her post. But you're the only person who outright refused and posted about it
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Jul 8, 2022 03:58
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Caffeinated Jerkoff posted:I'm gonna guess one scum joined the vote and one didn't. I'm also optimistically assuming there are only 3 of them *optimistically assuming there were only 3 of them/are only 2 of them remaining
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Jul 8, 2022 04:08
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Jadecore posted:Well, I suppose that worked out. Not exactly a traditional way to eliminate scum, I imagine, but what works, works. ...still felt bad, honestly. lol I'm a little bit concerned by the possibility that Plastic is town, and that the "Plastic vs wologar" framing that came up towards the end of Day 2 is leading us into throwing out another town member. But I definitely agree with HCT's observation that Plastic posting "Working on getting my thoughts together, will post shortly" gets more suspicious each time he doesn't follow through. And my main scum read, Cloacamazing, has been trying to be more involved with the thread. And the current votes on Plastic are from people I get town-leaning reads from, generally... In the interest of not putting us in hammer territory, I'm gonna hold off from voting for a little while. I'd like to see a defense from Plastic before the deadline.
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Jul 8, 2022 16:38
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PlasticAutomaton posted:Also I might as well claim at this point and make scum kill me. Why NeverHelm night 1, why Green Wing night 2?
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Jul 8, 2022 18:14
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Hyper Crab Tank posted:Doctor can protect himself, can't he? Which puts another wrench in the works because if we vote someone else and Plastic doesn't get nightkilled that doesn't give us a goddamn thing because that's also consistent with him being scum and lying his pants off. doctor can't protect themselves
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Jul 8, 2022 18:15
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If Plastic is scum, we extremely don't want the real doctor to counter-claim If Plastic isn't scum and is indeed town doctor, the mafia would 100% shoot him tonight. The doctor is one of town's most powerful roles, it gives town extra days if they guess right. No amount of soft/social influence is as powerful as "If this person picks the right name, town gets another 48 hours to find scum"
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Jul 8, 2022 19:09
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| # ¿ Apr 26, 2024 07:46 |
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Green Wing posted:Mafia edit. My knee-jerk reaction was "the doctor is worth more than a mafia goon", but with this explanation, I think I get it. Assuming there are only 2 scum remaining, voting one more out means that the remaining scum would have to figure out how to eject everyone in the game but themselves and one other person. At that point, the odds are stacked so hard against scum that town basically doesn't need the advantage of the doctor's protect action to win.
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Jul 8, 2022 19:38
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