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Alright, rather than clogging MLB N/V with a big post like this, I figured I'd create a thread and invite other people to post what they think their teams are going to do in the offseason, and projecting potential rosters for 2023. I will start with the Phillies, and am going to begin by listing all the upcoming free agents the Phillies have. My best guess is that nobody from the 26-man is going to be traded, so all the players that are gone next year are going to free agency. Free Agents (Position and 2022 $) Kyle Gibson (SP) ($7.7 mil) Zach Eflin (SP) ($5.55 mil) Noah Syndergaard (SP) ($21 mil) Corey Knebel (RP) ($10 mil) David Robertson (RP) ($3.5 mil) Brad Hand (RP) ($6 mil) Jean Segura (2B) ($14.85 mil) You'll notice most of this list is pitching, and that's what I think the Phillies will target mostly in free agency and the trade market. I doubt they'll be that involved with trades, except perhaps for some minor league depth; as such, I mostly only mention free agents as potential additions. Considering the amount of money they have coming off the books and John Middleton's willingness to go over the luxury tax, I expect the Phillies will be quite active in free agency. As the rumor mill has mentioned, they're very likely to be in on one of the major shortstops. But first, I'll start with pitching. Starting Rotation Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suarez are all locks to begin the season in the rotation. By my estimate, the Phillies are likely going to need two starters to fill out the rotation. Ideally, they'll sign two starters in free agency and use guys like Bailey Falter and Christopher Sánchez as the first men up. As for who, the main target should be Carlos Rodon, and then try to figure out a fifth starter cheap. I could see the Phillies attempt to bring back either Zach Eflin or Noah Syndergaard, but there's definitely a chance that either or both get more money/term somewhere else. Kyle Gibson better be gone after he forgot how to pitch in August and September this year. Chris Bassitt, Tyler Anderson, Nate Eovaldi, Carlos Carrasco, Jose Quintana, Jameson Taillon, and Taijuan Walker are all interesting possibilities with upsides and downsides, depending on money and term as well. On the one-year, veteran side of things, I'd be interested in Johnny Cueto, Corey Kluber, Sean Manaea, Chris Archer, and Wade Miley. None of them is near their peak (although Cueto had a nice bounceback year) but they should all throw a good amount of innings that the Phils need. Three good options who I don't think the Phillies will be in on are Jacob DeGrom, Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw. At this point, I very much doubt Kershaw leaves L.A. Same with Verlander and Houston. As for DeGrom, I could see him leaving New York (although Steve Cohen will probably back up a dumptruck full of money at his door to keep him there), but if signing him would keep the Phillies from upgrading in other ways I don't know that it would be worth it. One of the main problems they faced in the World Series was simply running out of gas. They need lots of average innings at this point more than like 10 excellent starts, and DeGrom's health is a huge question, particularly at his age. Assuming he hits the open market, I have no doubt the Phils will check in, but it doesn't seem like a great fit. Phillies posters will note three names I didn't mention as possibilites: Andrew Painter, Mick Abel, and Griff McGarry. The Phillies 3 top prospects are all starting pitchers who ended 2022 in the upper minors. I suspect all 3 will make their MLB debuts some time next season, but none of them is major league ready yet. Abel's only made 5 AA starts and hasn't seen AAA, Painter's not even 20 and also has only made 5 AAA starts. McGarry is more of a possibility, because he ended the season in AAA, but he was wild and a bit homer prone (in a small sample size). I'd like to see them all get more time working on their stuff before starting games for a contender. All this said, my hope on the rotation going into next season: Zack Wheeler Aaron Nola Carlos Rodon Ranger Suarez Corey Kluber Bailey Falter would likely be first up until one or more of the top prospects are ready. Bullpen Jose Alvardo (L), Seranthony Dominguez (R), Connor Brogdon (R), and Andrew Bellatti (R) are all already on the roster and almost guaranteed spots on next seasons bullpen. They are all in theory medium to high leverage relief options. As I see it, the Phils will need a long reliever, a low leverage righty, a low leverage lefty, and another high leverage guy. If the Phillies do make a trade, a reliever IMO is the most likely target, but I only mention free agents here. - Long relief: Nick Nelson (R) is the favorite to win the job, as he did a serviceable job in the role in 2022. Depending how the rotation battles go, I could see Bailey Falter getting the role, moving Nelson to a low leverage role. - Righty relief: Sam Coonrod, Francisco Morales, and Mark Appel are already on the 40 man roster, but I don't think any of them is going to get significant innings next season. Morales needs more time developing in the minors, Appel I believe got injured again, and Coonrod should not be getting innings for a contender. One of the easiest ways forward is to re-sign David Robertson to a one year deal. He was not great with the Phillies but alright enough, and him and the team/city got along real well. Definitely not the only reliever they need to sign, but he'll be a solid enough piece. The other options in free agency I'd be most interested in are Michael Fulmer, Mychal Givens, and Chad Green. I'd also look at Corey Knebel and Tommy Kahnle as potential bounceback options after their injuries, but I definitely wouldn't plan on them being healthy. If Jose Leclerc or Brad Boxberger have their options declined and hit free agency, they'd also be worth a look IMO. - Lefty relief: With Alvarado seemingly figuring his poo poo out, the Phils only really need one lefty reliever. I doubt they bring back Brad Hand, though he might be an alright depth option if they can't get anyone better. Most of the rest of the lefties currently in the organization are still potential starters (or shouldn't be anywhere near a major league bullpen) so they'll definitely have to look at the market to find a replacement. Andrew Chafin is probably the best option, since Taylor Rogers will likely want a closing gig. Matt Boyd, Will Smith, and David Price (if he doesn't retire) are also interesting options. All that said, how I'd do it: Jose Alvarado (L) Seranthony Dominguez (R) Michael Fulmer (R) David Robertson (R) Andrew Chafin (L) Connor Brogdon (R) Andrew Bellatti (R) Nick Nelson (R) Catcher https://twitter.com/mlb/status/1581361968187084800?s=61&t=WeiITUZQVpDzxWdLP9tcjA Obviously, this is J.T. Realmuto. The Phillies will really need to get Garrett Stubbs into more games next season to keep Realmuto fresh. First Base https://twitter.com/_piccone/status/1581039745236602882?s=61&t=uQsqR08xIlMozm4HDrci-Q There's been a lot of hate on Rhys Hoskins, some of it well deserved but most of it not IMO. Dude's a career .242/.353/.492 hitter. It seems most of the Rhys haters want to replace him with Anthony Rizzo or Jose Abreu (who both, at the age they are and term/money they'd require to sign, aren't significant upgrades). Hoskins for sure is not a great fielding 1B, but guys like Josh Bell and Trey Mancini aren't significantly better, and both of them slumped hard in the second half of the regular season/playoffs. I'll be the first to say that Rhys isn't perfect, but for the value you get and the chemistry he already has with the rest of the clubhouse, there aren't any better options. He's likely going to be a free agent after next season, and how his 2023 goes will likely shape what direction the Phils move next offseason. I hope they sign him to an extension, to be blunt. Third Base https://twitter.com/nbcsphilly/status/1584326944694226944?s=61&t=KLdXiqAdCyT9E1KJ510FVA This is Alec Bohm's spot. Insane people on twitter have been concocting scenarios where Rhys Hoskins gets traded and Bohm takes over first base, with Edmundo Sosa starting at third full time, and these people are insane. Sosa's a good bench player but he's not a starter, and Bohm's bat and defense both made great improvements over the course of 2022. The Phils would be crazy to go anywhere else at this point. Middle Infield This is the big question. Jean Segura, after four years with the Phillies, is officially a free agent and is likely to find more term/money than the Phils would be willing to provide. Bryson Stott is virtually guaranteed a starting job next season, but whether that's at second or shortstop depends where the Phillies go this offseason. If the Phils did come back around to Segura, Stott would likely stick at shortstop and Segura would continue playing second, but I find this unlikely. However, there are four free agent shortstops who are likely gamechangers, and if the Phillies sign one of them, Stott should slide easily over to second base. Everything so far indicates the Phillies are going to be in on that market (Swanson, Correa, Turner, and Bogaerts), so which one should they go for? - Dansby Swanson? Probably not. He's good, but his bat isn't on the same level as any of the other three, and while he won a Gold Glove, his glove isn't so far ahead of the others that it would be worth the fall off if you can grab one of the bats. Worth looking into if the other three sign somewhere else, but not my first priority. - Carlos Correa? Debatably the best of the four, Correa's got arguably the most consistent bat, is the youngest (having just turned 28), and is only one season removed from his own Gold Glove. This all adds up to likely the biggest get for whoever signs him, but also the biggest and longest contract. I don't think that's a real problem for the Phillies, but depending how things go it might affect things. e: I believe Correa is also the only one of these four who won’t have a qualifying offer attached, which could point teams in his direction since they won’t have to surrender any draft picks. - Trea Turner? My personal favorite of the four, he's also likely to get a huge contract. Coming off two straight All-Star nods he's a solid if unspectacular shortstop who's also a menace on the bases. He's also older than Correa and Swanson, though not so significantly that it would be a dealbreaker. - Xander Bogaerts? Possibly the best bat amongst this group, he's hit .301/.373/.508 since the start of 2018, including two Silver Sluggers and 3 All-Star nods during that time period. That said, he's definitely a bat-first shortstop, grading out poorly in most defensive metrics. He's likely to have to move off the position in a few years. There's a strong connection between him and Dombrowski that might make him the Phillies favorite, but personally, I'd prefer they not sign him unless Turner and Correa both go somewhere else. Designated Hitter This is mainly Nick Castellanos. He had a bad year this year, but there's evidence to suggest he can turn it around next year. His glove is weaker than Schwarber's, so he'll likely get more games at DH than Schwarber. I suspect Thomson will cycle the two of them (and occasionally Realmuto, Hoskins, and Harper) in and out of the designated hitter spot to rest them. Left Field https://twitter.com/mlb/status/1582548383125815296?s=61&t=qi6KWd4ERDApTx4WUr2r_w Schwarber! He's not great in the field but he's the best fielding LF the Phils have, barring one of the wildcard scenarios I'll go over in a bit. Either way, his bat is absolutely staying in the lineup. I don't know how much I like the Kyle Schwarber leadoff hitter experiment, but I doubt Rob Thomson moves him out of the leadoff spot. Center Field  The wet man, Brandon Marsh, and the Car Shield, Matt Vierling, make a solid platoon in center. I don't see the Phillies messing with it next season as they mature and hopefully get even better. Right Field https://twitter.com/_piccone/status/1584302268329111552?s=61&t=OkyaimrLgRAoji7IITcxTQ Harper, assuming his health, is going to start in right field next season. That said, his health is in question. He missed about six weeks this summer with a broken thumb, but that is completely healed. Early in the season he suffered an elbow injury that limited him to designated hitter. In theory, he should be able to get surgery to repair the elbow issue over the offseason and come back for Spring Training healthy, but there is a chance Harper could miss part of 2023 in recovery. If he does, Nick Castellanos will likely slide over to right from DH and Darick Hall would be up from AAA to take over DH against righties. Bench Edmundo Sosa is a very good utility infielder who can slot in at second, third, and shortstop whenever Bohm, Stott or (hopefully) Turner needs a day off. His bat isn't amazing but there is some pop there and he's pretty speedy. Nick Maton is a fairly similar player, but he hits left handed instead of righty. Sosa's glove is probably better, if the Phils need a defensive replacement, but Maton's no slouch, and he can sub in the outfield if absolutely necessary. Garrett Stubbs is the backup catcher. He's an excellent clubhouse DJ and fairly solid behind the plate. Not too bad with the bat either, but I wouldn't want to lean on him as a starter. Matt Vierling is the 4th outfielder and probably platoon partner for Brandon Marsh. He's very fourth outfieldery. Next Men Up I'm just going to list these guys by position. Who they'd actually call up depends on needs and health; I bolded a couple of the most likely callups. RHP: Sam Coonrod Mark Appel Francisco Morales Hans Crouse LHP: Bailey Falter Christopher Sanchez Michael Plassmeyer C: Rafael Marchan Donny Sands IF: Dalton Guthrie Darick Hall Scott Kingery (lol god drat did he fall off) So, finally, the 26-man roster: Lefty Pitchers: Jose Alvarado Andrew Chafin Ranger Suarez Righty Pitchers: Andrew Bellatti Connor Brogdon Seranthony Dominguez Michael Fulmer Corey Kluber Nick Nelson Aaron Nola David Robertson Carlos Rodon Zack Wheeler Catchers: J.T. Realmuto Garrett Stubbs Infielders: Alec Bohm Rhys Hoskins Nick Maton Edmundo Sosa Bryson Stott Trea Turner Outfielder: Nick Castellanos Bryce Harper Brandon Marsh Kyle Schwarber Matt Vierling And the potential opening day lineup: LF - Schwarber SS - Turner 1B - Hoskins RF - Harper C - Realmuto DH - Castellanos 3B - Bohm CF - Marsh 2B - Stott This all being said, I don't know how likely it is they'll go this way. Despite all the money coming off the books (close to $70 million, as far as I can tell), I'm not sure they'll go all in on both Rodon and Turner. If they only get one of those two I'd prefer it be Turner, and they can sign somebody who will demand less money on the pitching front. However, if there's any situation/owner who would go all-in, it would be John Middleton right after winning a pennant but not the World Series. I invite additional thoughts, criticism (although you’re wrong and I’m right) and what people think their own rosters might look like. mentholmoose fucked around with this message at 21:43 on Nov 9, 2022 |
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Nov 9, 2022 21:23
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I'll take a crack at the Mariners, if someone else wants to put something better together please do so! The Mariners of Seattle -- 90-72, lost ALDS 0-3 to HOU Free Agents Mitch Haniger Matt Boyd Curt Casali Adam Frazier Carlos Santana I could see Haniger or Santana being back, though either returning means that free agency and trades have both been less fruitful than the team hopes. Boyd is an interesting litmus test to see just how committed the team is to Marco Gonzales in the starting rotation: Boyd's a good pick to be better than a declining Marco, and if he's leaving primarily to find a starting role holding an honest competition between the two might be enough to bring him back. Starting Rotation 4 of the 5 are settled: George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, Robbie Ray. The last spot is, for the moment, occupied likely by Marco Gonzales. What to do about Marco is probably the biggest pitching question this year for a team with a legitimate claim to the best all-around pitching staff in baseball in 2023: do you lock him in as a team leader and because your other 4 starters are so good that throwing a qualitatively bad pitcher every 5th day doesn't matter that much? Or do you take seriously the prospect of winning the AL West and upgrade from Marco, seeing as it's one of the clearest ways to pick up some wins in the pursuit of the Astros? I hope they decide to move on from him because I don't value leadership all that much and he's likely to be worse next year, not better. I assume he stays in the 5th spot with only a perfunctory competition, if any at all. If the Mariners do try to move on from Marco expect it to happen either via a low dollar free agent signing or via a trade. Jason Churchill has floated a few times that Marco could be a (small) piece on a trade with the Tigers for Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez has two more years than Marco left and has burnt plenty of bridges in Detroit while Marco can be a good clubhouse guy and give you generally a lot of MLB-quality starting innings. If they go the free agency route likely candidates would be either back-end of the career guys (Corrasco, Bassitt, Minor, W. Miley, Kluber) or a younger guy trying to re-establish their value (Syndergaard, Lorenzen, Eovaldi). Bullpen The Mariners run their bullpen with tranches of leverage: high leverage, medium, low. High leverage arms are likely locked in with Andres Munoz, Matt Brash, and Paul Sewald. Medium leverage arms like Matt Festa and Erik Swanson may be able to move up and slot Paul Sewald down: Sewald still has HR problems and Swanson established his stuff as being at least on par with Sewald's last year. I think Festa is unlikely but could happen based on the strength of his slider, if he can tweak his fastball a bit. Low leverage is where there may be changes made. Penn Murfee was an effective, if unspectacular pitcher last year but he's an archetype that the Mariners have demonstrated an ability to find or mold as needed (flat fastball/sweeping plus slider). If a move is made in the pen I expect it to be out of the bottom third, likely as a complementary piece in a deal for a positional player. Positional Players We'll start by listing the guys who have spots locked down. C - Cal Raleigh 1B - Ty France 3B - Eugenio Suarez CF - Julio Rodriguez There's work to be done here! Even though Cal Raleigh broke out and proved himself as one of the best catchers in the AL, the team is still likely to be looking for at least 3 bats. The biggest hole is in the middle infield, where JP Crawford will play one of SS or 2B as necessitated by the off-season moves. A flat swing and a long, long cold spell cratered Crawford's offensive value and there are legitimate questions about if he's a *good* glove at short but he is at the very least playable there. GM Justin Hollander (yes) and Executive VP of Baseball Ops Jerry Dipoto (yes but also he's still probably doing a fair bit of GMing) will be on the lookout for at least one corner OF bat over the Winter, likley two. Names to watch here range from the biggest OF on the market in Brandon Nimmo down to your usual reclamation/platoon bats in Joc Pederson, Jurickson Profar, and Robbie Grossman. There's one big questionmark here in Mitch Haniger. Often hurt, sometimes in ridiculous ways, Haniger's seen his value fall off from the legitimate All-Star peak of 2018 down to the 'good bat, bat glove' in RF guy. I don't think the Mariners bring him back for several reasons: 1. Fit. Mitch can only play RF or DH. 2. Health. As established counting on a healthy Mitch Haniger is like counting on a healthy Troy Tulowitzki. 3. Bat. He's not actually -that great- of a hitter, and will likely be in the 110-115 wRC+ neighborhood moving forward. Then there's the DH, although that's likely not to be treated as a full position. Carlos Santana did well here in spots but was overall not great, and there are already guys on the roster who should be DHing a lot more (Winker, France, Suarez). Look for this hole to be filled internally. Off-Season Plan/Prediction A dream off-season for the Mariners fills these holes with at least two impact bats, likely one of the 4 big short stops + Brandon Nimmo. A nightmare off-season means the big signing is Haniger coming back and everyone saying he's perfectly healthy until, six weeks before the season, he hits his head on a door frame and misses a month with vertigo. I think that the bigger moves will probably not materialize and the Mariners will have a good, if unspectacular time of things. Brandon Nimmo is a likely headlining move, and I think smaller moves can be made like acquiring Ian Happ via trade and filling your corner OF hole with some of the guys discussed above. What this boils down to is an opening day roster of something like: LF - Nimmo CF - Julio 1B - France DH - Winker 3B - Suarez C - Raleigh 2B - Happ RF - Pederson SS - Crawford With a bench of Luis Torrens (backup C), Jarred Kelenic (defensive corner OF sub/lottery ticket), Dylan Moore (utility guy everyone in Seattle loves), Sam Haggerty (Speedy guy and OFer who everyone in Seattle loves).
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Nov 9, 2022 22:16
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as pretend GM for my Oakland Athletics my first move would be and I've been told to trade everyone making more than minimum and field a roster of league minimum contracts
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Nov 9, 2022 22:18
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Hell yeah, love the write-up on the M’s. Shame they couldn’t go further in the playoffs this year. Also, I think I mentioned a wildcard scenario then forgot to add it to my original post. https://twitter.com/hurtsyivania/status/1587261353944924160?s=61&t=IBC3PpoJ9ZyWYo0Xcsjv0A Masataka Yoshida, currently likely the best hitter in Japan's NPB, is likely to come over to Major League Baseball this offseason, and he's a big Bryce Harper fan: https://twitter.com/hurtsyivania/status/1587261400333930497?s=61&t=IBC3PpoJ9ZyWYo0Xcsjv0A At 29 years old, he's a lefty hitter for the Orix Buffaloes, and in 7 seasons in the NPB, he's hit to a .326/.419/.538 line with 135 homers and more walks than strikeouts. Frankly, he'd be a huge get for any lineup, similar to Seiya Suzuki with the Cubs. The problem is, Yoshida has only played in the corner outfield in his NPB career. Corner outfield is not a position that the Phillies have any space, with Harper, Schwarber, and Castellanos already filling both spots and DH. So, what are the options? 1) Move Hoskins: I don't like this option, even though a bunch of Phillies fans do. This would likely entail moving Schwarber to first, a position he's not any better at than Hoskins. Considering the risk of Yoshida's bat not translating to NPB (not a very high risk considering his profile, to be honest, but still a possibility), getting rid of Hoskins bat isn't a risk I'd be quite willing to take. 2) Move Castellanos: Not happening. No way is anybody biting on Castellanos after this season, and I don't know that Yoshida's bat is an upgrade over what Castellanos could in theory provide next year if he rebounds. 3) Kick the can down the road: Harper, after likely offseason surgery, isn't 100% to be healthy in Spring Training. Rumor is he could miss April and May. With Yoshida in right and Castellanos at DH while Harper's down, it's an interesting solution to the problem that doesn't involve Darick Hall, who really shouldn't be in the majors consistently. The problem with that, of course, is that Yoshida is likely to want a starting opportunity, and when Harper returns, Yoshida's then relying on somebody else to be injured to get consistent playing time; the Phillies couldn't very well send any of Schwarber, Hoskins, or Castellanos down to make room, which means Yoshida would likely have to accept assignment to AAA, something you're not going to ask of a new MVP caliber signing out of Japan. After 2023, however, Rhys Hoskins is a free agent. If the Phillies were to sign Yoshida, I could see them trying to sign Yoshida, see how his bat translates in more limited playing time (in the majors and minors), then giving him an MLB job in 2024. Personally, I don't think he'd accept that unless he desperately wants to come to Philadelphia; other teams are likely to offer him a position playing full time. Signing Yoshida is cool in theory, but I just don't see it working out.
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Nov 9, 2022 22:24
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