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ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007

StratGoatCom posted:

It's a craven dogshit triangulation, and I don't think it will be the last here.

This has been the Democrats' strategy since Clinton.

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ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007

Lol. Amy "I Primarily Cover Hillary Clinton" Chozick

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007

Kalit posted:

Do you think the Democratic party can achieve more [lasting] power without getting more votes? Do you think that Republicans will continue maintaining their current level of power if they keep getting less votes?

No; yes; cf. viz. Wisconsin gerrymandering and 6-3 control of the SCOTUS

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1664333235143188486

I wonder if these three idiots expect to win, and if the DSCC is going to offer them its full-throated support as I expect they will. I'm betting Manchin and Sinema are going to get BTFO, less sure about Tester.

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1687104618126544896

How can you take the democrats supposed commitment to abortion rights seriously when they're still endorsing this piece of poo poo?

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007

It seems a lot of Muslim and Arab Americans have already made their calculations about what they will and won't support in a Democrat. Full-throated and unceasing support for Israel might end up costing Biden in some important states (Michigan) that have large communities of these folks.

https://twitter.com/YasmeenSerhan/status/1719374204980662649

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007

Queering Wheel posted:

How is Trump up by 5 in Michigan when Dems just won a trifecta there less than a year ago?

e: Democrats won everything by comfortable margins, too: https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/results/michigan

And +11 in Nevada almost makes even less sense. I don't think polls are completely useless or anything but we're a year out from the election still.

There is a large Muslim population in Michigan, particularly in the population centers. There was an article recently that said he's lost something like 40 points of support amongst that voting bloc.

Biden doesn't seem to realize that this is a critical constituency, in this state that he has to win, apparently, by continuing to offer nothing but support for Israel's ongoing genocide in Gaza.

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007

Bodyholes posted:

Actually I think the polls are right and if anything maybe underestimating Trump. It's gonna be bad.

Had a hard time believing such a huge contingent of minority voters would peel off like that but I got some street intel recently on this and yeah... I think it's real. I think we're pretty hosed actually.

I agree. Voters are going to remember that Biden restarted student loan payments, failed to give them the additional promised stimulus funds and doubled child poverty while also supporting an active ongoing genocide. Regardless of whether this was the fault of Congress or not.

All Trump needs to do is tip Michigan and Georgia and it's over. That's not at all a huge ask given current economic headwinds and Biden's genocidal rhetoric towards Palestine.

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007

I agree that most of the American electorate is extremely stupid and has a short memory. However when you roll in the fact that everything, including rent, costs 25-50% more than when Biden took office, I don't think most voters will do anything but conclude that "Bidenomics" was a failure, and with the very visible ongoing murder of civilians in occupied Palestine and student loan repayments restarting further crippling a strained disposable income that will be enough to sway the election to Republicans in critical states.

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007

It is not complicated. It is a moral position to do anything within your power to not support and stop a genocide from happening if possible. Joe Biden can do this, more than anyone else in the world. The fact that he is not speaks to the moral cowardice of America's officials on both sides of the aisle, and the complicit Western media in its coverage. It does not matter at all what a hypothetical future Trump 2nd term will mean when civilians are dying now and the Democrats in office are doing nothing to stop it. Every minute that passes while it continues degrades any moral argument they may have for continuing to support them.

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007

In addition to material conditions becoming significantly worse for most Americans since Biden's election (vis a vis inflation, the end of the pandemic era child tax credit, the restart of student loan payments, massive inflation, and so on), there's a very visible genocide happening with the full-throated support of the majority of Democrats in the House, Senate, and White House, despite this being unpopular with a majority of their constituents based on recent polls.

Instead of turning to vote scolding and lesser evilism, a playbook the modern Democrats and supporters have trotted out since 2008 with very mixed results, they could try changing course on some of their unpopular policies and following through on previous promises. For example, Biden could call for a ceasefire. The rest of the party would follow suit, and this might help at least do something to arrest his slide in the polls with younger voters. Biden could also follow through on descheduling marijuana to schedule III, something he asked the HHS and AG to examine doing over a year ago. Neither of these things would require legislative action as far as I'm aware. Both are popular things to do and things Biden should do, morally. He could also do more to forgive student loan debt.

Since it's unlikely Biden or the Democrats will do any of these things, and hope for legislation that would affect material conditions is long dead, I expect their poll numbers to continue to decline over the next year, barring some major black swan event. The Democrats seem incapable of responding to their constituents policy demands, so the only thing left is executive action. Biden has not shown great promise on that front.

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007

Ms Adequate posted:

He didn't personally shove anyone into the ovens (Well, that we know of) but has anyone ever played a role in instigating so many genocides?

Why, Biden and Netanyahu are doing one right now! IDK if they others to their credit though. Biden voting for the Iraq war might count.

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007

Telling people to wait for a primary to express their dissatisfaction is puzzling, since the DNC has expressly argued in court they are under no obligation to pick a candidate from the primary fairly:


quote:

DNC attorneys claim Article V, Section 4 of the DNC Charter—stipulating that the DNC chair and their staff must ensure neutrality in the Democratic presidential primaries—is “a discretionary rule that it didn’t need to adopt to begin with.” Based on this assumption, DNC attorneys assert that the court cannot interpret, claim, or rule on anything associated with whether the DNC remains neutral in their presidential primaries.

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007

The party is under no obligation to be impartial and is obviously not impartial during its primary process. How do you square that with telling people to express their dissatisfaction with the direction of the party during a primary?

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007

I'm not talking about overriding a popularly-selected candidate once the primaries are concluded, I'm referring to the degree of support the candidate(s) do or don't receive from the party based on their ideological alignment with the party elites before and during the primaries.

For example, I don't believe a hypothetical 2028 Ilhan Omar candidacy would in any way receive the same sort of material or soft support from the DNC as a hypothetical 2028 Pete Buttigieg candidacy. That's the sort of influence that I think a sentiment like "just express your dissatisfaction with the party during the primary" overlooks.

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

That's politics, dawg. They can't give any financial support, but people can endorse or tell people to vote however they want.

If your issue is that you can't get a plurality of people in your own party to support you because people are more willing to listen to a DNC Vice-Executive's endorsement over you, then you have larger problems for your political movement.

That doesn't mean that you shouldn't vote for your preferred candidate in the primary or that vote results have no impact on who the nominee is.

I mean, I get it, the Democrats stopped representing my views a long time ago, but right here you're saying "the party decides", "because people are willing to listen to a DNC Vice-Executive's endorsement over you".

The type of movement you're describing isn't possible below the elite level of the party, in my view, and your statement is in fact one of the reasons why. If I can't express my opinions effectively from the bottom up (via the primary), then my only other choice is the top down via the general.

ex post facho fucked around with this message at 19:51 on Jan 22, 2024

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007

GlyphGryph posted:

How exactly do you imagine your opinions are better expressed during the general or in what capacity that becomes top down? None of what youre saying makes much sense to me

They're not since I don't live in one of ~6 states that will decide the election. The margins will be lower for Democrats in my state when I vote for PSL instead, and if that's the only power I have to make change in the party aside from organizing for a hypothetical candidate in a weighted primary years later, then I'm going to use it.

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ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007

Only one vote from balkanization. So close!

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

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