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koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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RWM would just declare it photoshopped or AI generated. See the false flag crisis actor bullshit around the students from.. Parkland?

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koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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In graph form.

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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Willa Rogers posted:

The survey did include cutting military spending, as the linked piece shows, and it garnered the highest percentage of pro-cut votes (eta: in the graphic posted by AP that I pasted below):



It was kind of... disingenuous to cut off the military spending in the tweet graphic, as Kapur did. It really does pay to click through & read the linked stories from tweets if they aren't paywalled, because otherwise the tweets, as well as those reposting it, are incorrectly mediating the news.

Technically this graphic is also chopping off a bunch of data. The NORC article has the actual full data. Foreign aid has the highest support for cuts (by a pretty large margin too lmao Americans are so loving stupid):

koolkal posted:



In graph form.

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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Who are these onlookers that need people to factcheck Greene for the 50th time about whatever insane poo poo she's saying?

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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Zamujasa posted:

Trump withdrawing would cement his status as a Loser before the votes are even cast, and for that reason alone I don't see him withdrawing.

I would expect a Stop the Steal movement and protesters to attack whoever's in the lead.

Which could be funny?

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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I certainly won't but it's still good information to have and perhaps might lead to people keeping track of their health in regards to alcohol-related issues more closely. Like asking your doctor to screen for liver disease or something IDK.

For example, I tend to get bloodwork done every other year and screen for a few different things that may be issues for me due to family history, past issues, etc. but I've never been a heavy drinker so I didn't take it into consideration.

koolkal fucked around with this message at 15:55 on Apr 5, 2023

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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Round here we call that pulling a Bust Rodd.

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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Gumball Gumption posted:

What happened to the judge in Washington who ruled that the FDA can't restrict access? How does that play into setting precedent?

Yeah I'm curious about this too. Is there some kind of jurisdiction difference?

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/texas-judge-halts-fda-approval-of-abortion-pill-mifepristone

This article makes it seem like the FDA could choose to continue allowing the drug so kinda sounds like Biden is just willingly choosing to follow the Trump judge's order instead of the other judge.

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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Google Jeb Bush posted:

As someone else mentioned, I think you either misread or posted the wrong article. At the moment, according to the article you posted

- the drug is still legal
- the Biden admin has made no moves to pull it
- the journalist and the experts they spoke to are waiting to see what happens in the next week

That, uh, does not sound like unilaterally choosing to follow the (absurd) Texas ruling

I was going based off the tweet posted a page or 2 ago from the HHS spokeswoman had posted which made it seem like they were going to pull it but sounds like I misinterpreted it and there's nothing actually changing for a few days at least.

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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I for one hope he gets charged for both issues because the idea of Republicans coming out against dodging taxes and buying a gun would be pretty funny.

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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It sounds like the case will go back to the 5th circuit (the crazy conservative one right?) for a full case in May right? And they will presumably ban it? And then it gets appealed to SCOTUS and they can either take it up (and likely ban it? not sure where Roberts + Gorsuch would stand) or refer to the lower ruling.

Is this a good interpretation of what's likely to happen?

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

The FCC is working with the European Union to develop 6G standards and technology to be distributed around the world.

China is pushing a competing standard that has much greater ability for carriers to view individual information. The U.S. is now (somewhat ironically) at the head of the global effort to provide 6G networks with high degrees of individual privacy protections to become the standard over the Chinese version.

Obviously, China will be able to deploy whatever version it wants within its own country, but the E.U. and U.S. are working to put the money into research for the rest of the world to allow for cheaper adoption by other countries to dissuade them from allowing China to set up a global network.

This is not my area of expertise. Does anyone who may know more about it know what the significant differences are with 6G that aren't simply "5G, but faster"? Or what the significance of Wi-Fi 7 is? Or what type of "much more individual identifying information" the Chinese version is working with/is that different from 5G?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biden-official-jury-is-still-out-on-how-6g-will-look-173257234.html

6G doesn't exist as a standard yet. Right now it is essentially "5G but faster". Everything else is just a wishlist of features that will have to be nailed down by the people actually working on establishing the standard (usually a mix of various tech/telecom companies, academic researchers, the government, etc.).

koolkal fucked around with this message at 20:59 on Apr 24, 2023

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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haveblue posted:

Lmao that that is almost the exact same thing they used to drive home the impact of Logan Roy dying on Succession two weeks ago

Lol, I was just thinking that too!

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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Willa Rogers posted:

Reminder that one of Tucker's largest demographics was millennial Democrats, at least as of a year and a half ago.

I think you're misinterpreting this since millennials of any persuasion aren't a large part of Fox News demographics. Their median viewer age is in the 60s (also true for MSNBC and CNN). Of the millennial Democrats that watch cable news he's the biggest, but that demo is very small.

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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Comstar posted:

Wow, SomethingAwful still has that much power? I'm impressed.

But seriously, there won't be a bank panic because of individuals with money in it. It will be a bank panic by the rich and powerful who pull their money out first because they already know it's doomed.

Why on earth would you keep any money in a failing business? Granted it's not like a Corporate Gift Card that's going to be useless after a collapse, but moving banks should be straight forward.


And the amount of people defending it is weird.

This is dumb because the FDIC has made it clear they will cover even uninsured deposits. The only losers are shareholders. If you hold a bank's stock you should certainly get out but as a depositor there's no reason to worry. It might save a bit of headache while the FDIC works out transfership but that's more of an inconvenience than a major concern.

koolkal fucked around with this message at 00:09 on Apr 30, 2023

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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Just an update on bank news: the feds orchestrated a sale of First Republic to JPMorgan who will acquire the entire bank. Shareholders wiped out but everyone else should be fine (well, most staff will be fine, I expect there might be some layoffs).

The feds would prefer to minimize disruption so they set up sales to big banks that can afford to absorb the bank as a whole instead of carving it up. The feds chip in some money (taken from the FDIC fund which is funded by all banks essentially) since the bank essentially has negative value.

This is identical to what happened with SVB and Credit Suisse and is the model for all bank failures from the current crisis. And it's really only small or medium sized banks that will go under because the big banks can absorb losses more easily and in the worst-case scenario, they are Too Big To Fail.

koolkal fucked around with this message at 19:53 on May 1, 2023

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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It's a trick I've seen tossed around by others like Matt Levine so it should work but it's one of those things where it's new and weird and someone will probably sue for some reason which could halt sales temporarily.

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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Willa Rogers posted:

Most goons are too young to remember George Schultz's glory days but those of us ancient enough to have listened to the Iran-Contra hearings will never forget the earth-shaking disclosure that Schultz had a tiger tattooed on his rear end in honor of his alma mater.

Anyway, there's a new bio of him by Philip Taubman, and the Guardian review has some good bits about it:

That one wasn't on my bingo card.

I imagine most people nowadays that do know of him know him as Jack McCoy's character

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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It seems way too unlikely to have started as a honeypot tool. Remember, Bitcoin had a good 10 or so years when a very small amount of people were using it and it grew very slowly because it was completely useless. It's really only around when Ethereum came onto the scene and let people do more interesting things with the blockchain that it really started drawing a lot of interest.

That's just way too much of a long game and also requires them hiring a Russian-Canadian teenager apparently.

It's certainly very useful as a tool nowadays but that's largely due to the difficulty in switching between crypto and actual money. For people in the US, that involves signing up with a company which will have to follow KYC laws which is how the feds keep catching people: they at some point will track an address to an exchange and check who the account belongs to. If there was an anonymous way to exchange crypto for money, this would fall apart.

There's just way too many steps to go from "invention of Bitcoin" to "feds regularly tracking down criminals via Bitcoin" for it to be anything but pure stupidity and chaos.

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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If over time, right wingers successfully pull what they did with Bud Light, you will see companies dropping support for #pride stuff, hiring trans people, etc.

It seems bad to say that we should not push back on this when the long term effect of allowing right wingers to pressure corporations will have an overall chilling effect.

But I guess this doesn't fit into the leftist "class war is the only war" philosophy.

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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Willa Rogers posted:

Are you addressing a particular post? Who has said "we" should not push back on this?

Do you support the LGBT counter-boycott of Anheiser-Busch for caving to the right? Because that's the very definition of pushing back.

I was mainly responding to Fister's post, which to me was saying this stuff doesn't matter, which I disagree with.

I think we should be fighting on every frontier and over every stupid issue. If companies see 1 side going apeshit over every small issue and the other side shrugging and going "rainbow capitalism lol" they're going to do what's easy and appease.

koolkal fucked around with this message at 18:49 on May 6, 2023

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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Koos Group posted:

That part is fairly obvious. I'd be interested to know why it's happening now in particular.

Shortage of labor pushed rich people to want to increase the labor pool, they called up one of the right wing groups that drafts boilerplate legislation that all the republicans distribute (https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/03/anti-trans-transgender-health-care-ban-legislation-bill-minors-children-lgbtq/ or Chris Rufo for example) and suddenly you see a wave of states like Arkansas or Idaho passing these bills.

That's my theory at least.

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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This article is older than some posters itt lol

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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Barrel Cactaur posted:

Selling existing debt in that framing still causes inflation, debt financing is inflationary. Also, increasing the amount of publicly circulating US debt in this manner at the same time as an unusual financial maneuver is going to hurt US bond prices. Much of this debt was acquired at lower interest rates, so your going to have to sell it at a discount from its face value to account for the difference from market rate, locking in even MORE inflation of the effective supply of money. Its a bad idea, and worse magic thinking.

Premium bonds might just be a worse idea. First point its debatable if the law establishing borrowing authority even ALLOWS a instrument with no maturity date. For the second, debt financing, even with financial trickery causes inflation. Third, this would send another shock-wave through the bond market, likely triggering another round of bank failures unless literally everyone is allowed to exchange for them. letting everyone do it would retroactively increase inflation caused by existing debt.

I don't think you quite understand the premium bond idea. The bond would still be auctioned off at the current interest rates but the FACE value of the bond would be lower.

"The premium-bond gimmick is: Treasury sells you one one-year $100 bond today, with an interest rate of 109%. In a year you get back $209: the $100 face amount of the bond, plus 109% interest. That bond has a face amount of $100, but it is clearly worth $200 today: It is economically the same as the two 4.5% bonds from the previous paragraph. So you’d be willing to pay Treasury $200 for it: the $100 face amount, plus $100 of “premium” to make the yield work out. And Treasury would be willing to sell it to you for $200: It sells you this $100 bond for $200. Treasury gets $200 of cash. But technically this bond is only $100 of “debt,” of face amount, so it only increases the debt by $100."

The Treasury is constantly issuing bonds so these would just be offered in their upcoming auctions in place of the regular bond.

koolkal fucked around with this message at 19:24 on May 13, 2023

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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Whoa there, this kinda language is uncalled for.

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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If someone/s can't build a base of support to win a primary, surely they will set up a 3rd party and take over a state.

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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zoux posted:

People seem to think that Donald Trump winning a black swan election by 10,000 votes across a few key states against a terrible candidate the right had spent 20 years making into the Antichrist makes him an unstoppable juggernaut.

He won 2016 by about 80000 votes across 3 states. He lost 2020 by about 50000 across 3 states. And 2020 had a lot more voters. If anything, 2020 looks like more of a black swan event considering the parties have been switching after a 2 term president each for several cycles.

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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Mooseontheloose posted:

Biden won more states than Clinton and even if you take it as PA, Georgia, and AZ it's over 100,000 votes. And Biden had more voters than Trump.

edit: Also, Biden won 51% of the vote. Trump lost the popular vote both times.

Yes, I would assume the winner of an election would win more states than the loser of one?

WI was +20000 Biden, AZ was +11000 Biden, GA was +22000 Biden. If all 3 of those had swung to Trump, Trump would have won the election. 2020 was a closer election and more of an outlier by pretty much every metric besides lovely pre-election polling.

Calling Trump's 2016 win an outlier and "black swan" is bizarre and doesn't match up with any reality beyond "vibes."

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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Just find a staircase and have an accident

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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Going to be great when a 14 yo needs more verification to go on reddit than to go to their job at Hooters

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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SubG posted:

I kinda felt the same way about the Morris worm. That was 1988. Instead we've ended up with a situation where substantial chunks of the internet are dependent on load-bearing single-developer NPM libraries.

Years ago I figured what was going to happen was that there'd eventually be a major breach exposing customer data and that that would produce a wave of regulation. But instead we've just sorta accepted that major breaches exposing customer data are just a fact of life and there's shockingly little liability for mis/nonfeasance in terms of companies handling sensitive data.

I think the only way out of it is if we started treating programming more like engineering—with accreditation for education, licensure for practice, regulation on what's produced, and liability for failures. But I have no idea how to plausibly get there from here.

There was some noise about it earlier this year but I haven't really been tracking it: https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2023/03/biden-administration-wants-to-hold-companies-liable-for-bad-cybersecurity/

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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It would be helpful if the Democrats had someone at the national level with a large media presence. Someone who could really highlight the good things Democrats have done and point out all the awful things Republicans are doing

Alas...

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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Killer robot posted:

This here is is something that absolutely happens all the time but just doesn't get the same engagement, even from the left, as Trump's latest deranged social media post.

According to the Democrats, it's not just engagement that's the problem: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/05/24/democrats-angry-debt-limit-messaging/

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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Technically, the Dems could keep McCarthy as speaker too. Especially if it's to get a favorable debt deal through.

Efb

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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NYC has usable subways, for one thing. I live in a different major US city and take more NYC subway rides on average just from the few times I visit throughout the year

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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Last I checked the UK has more than 2 parties and is Transphobia Island

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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the_steve posted:

Almost certainly this.
Anecdotally speaking, I've got a coworker right now who is one of those incredibly Smug Atheist Libs, and he is wholeheartedly convinced that all any republican would need to do to beat Trump is just relentlessly propagate the rumor that he loves gay dick and can't get enough of it.

Well apparently Desantis agrees so...

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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Don't do a crime that can be understood via a picture of your toilet.

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koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

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Alternatively: Americans are just incredibly awful people.

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