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B B
Dec 1, 2005

FlamingLiberal posted:

Are they even able to do that without going through Congress?

The executive branch has pretty much zero control over enforcement of marijuana policy, so no.

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B B
Dec 1, 2005

Gallup just released new polling on Joe Biden's approval rating, which has dropped by double digits among Democrats since last month:



His overall approval rating sits at 37%:



Gallup posted:

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- President Joe Biden’s job approval rating among Democrats has tumbled 11 percentage points in the past month to 75%, the worst reading of his presidency from his own party. This drop has pushed his overall approval rating down four points to 37%, matching his personal low.

At the same time, Biden’s approval among independents has declined four points, to 35%, while Republicans’ rating remains unchanged, at just 5%.

After ranging from 49% to 57% during the first eight months of his presidency, Biden’s approval rating has been mired in the low 40s for much of the past two years. Including the latest 37% job rating and an identical reading in April, Biden’s approval has fallen below 40% four times in the 33 readings Gallup has taken since he took office.

The latest downturn in Biden’s job rating, from an Oct. 2-23 Gallup poll, comes in the wake of the Oct. 7 surprise attack on Israel by Hamas militants that resulted in at least 1,400 deaths and more than 200 kidnappings. The attack by Hamas precipitated a counteroffensive by Israel, which has resulted in an estimated 5,000 deaths in Gaza thus far while also setting off a humanitarian crisis.

Immediately after the attack, Biden pledged “rock solid and unwavering” support for Israel from the U.S., and he subsequently visited the country on Oct. 18 to reiterate that message. But Biden has faced criticism from some members of his party for aligning too closely with Israel and not doing enough for the Palestinians. Some prominent Democratic lawmakers and protesters around the U.S. have called for Biden to do more to help the millions of Palestinians who are in need of humanitarian aid as Israel attempts to eradicate Hamas.


Early this year, Gallup found that for the first time in the U.S., Democrats’ sympathies for the Palestinians outpaced those for the Israelis. Although the survey is not designed to allow for statistically reliable estimates for any subset of the three-week polling period, the daily results strongly suggest that Democrats’ approval of Biden fell sharply in the aftermath of the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas and Biden’s promise of full support for Israel on the same day. Biden’s current 75% approval rating among Democrats is well below the 86% average from his own party throughout his presidency.

Meanwhile, Biden’s approval rating from Republicans has been consistently low and in the single digits for more than two years, while his rating from independents has been more variable but generally weak since July 2021.

Democrats’ current rating of Biden is four points lower than Republicans’ lowest rating of Donald Trump during his presidency.

Biden’s 11th-Quarter Average Job Rating Is 40.0%

Biden’s job approval rating during his 11th quarter in office -- spanning July 20 through Oct. 19 -- averaged 40.0%, just below last quarter’s 40.7%. His latest quarterly average rating is on the lower end for his presidency but is slightly higher than his lowest, which was 39.7% in his ninth quarter earlier this year (Jan. 20 through April 19).

Biden’s average quarterly approval rating has not risen above 42.0% since his third quarter in office, when it registered 44.7%. His average ratings in the first two quarters of his presidency were 56.0% and 53.3%.

Biden’s 11th-quarter average approval rating is worse than the same period’s rating for all but one of the 11 post-World War II U.S. presidents elected to their first term. Jimmy Carter’s 31.4% 11th-quarter average rating was recorded in 1979 during a nationwide energy crisis and high gas prices.

Five presidents registered majority-level 11th-quarter average approval ratings, ranging from 50.5% to 72.7%: Dwight Eisenhower, John Kennedy, Richard Nixon, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush. The other four presidents averaged 40.7% (Trump), 41.0% (Barack Obama), 44.4% (Ronald Reagan) and 46.4% (Bill Clinton).

Bottom Line

Biden’s immediate and decisive show of support for Israel following the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas appears to have turned off some in his own party, resulting in Democrats’ worst assessment of the president since he took office. Biden’s overall approval rating likewise matches his personal low. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict comes at a time when Americans remain pessimistic about the economy, the Biden administration is struggling to deal with increasing numbers of migrants attempting to enter the country, and debate continues about how much aid to provide to Ukraine in its war with Russia.

As events in the Middle East continue to unfold and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza worsens, Biden’s guidance on Israel could affect not only the outcome of the war but also how he is viewed at home.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Zotix posted:

Yeah but they are back. CNN is covering it live as well. The police seem to think there's a good chance he's in there. Multiple drones, helicopter overhead, and lots of police flooded there again in the past half an hour. Obviously not 100% sure he's in there, but there's some reason they flooded back there.

The police presence is high, but it's not certain that he's in the home:

https://twitter.com/MEStatePolice/status/1717691855385563218

https://twitter.com/MEStatePolice/status/1717691857163935940

B B
Dec 1, 2005

theCalamity posted:

That’s what people and the Democrats said in 2020. Vote for us and we’ll pass the voting rights law. They got into power and failed to do so. But now people must vote for more democrats. How many more Democrats? How many Democrats do we need?

The answer is enough to overcome the filibuster, but even then it's not at all clear that Democrats will actually go through with the things they say that they intend to do.

Barack Obama posted:

“The first thing I’d do as president is sign the Freedom of Choice Act.”

July 17, 2007

Barack Obama posted:

When South Dakota passed a law banning all abortions in a direct effort to have Roe overruled, I was the only candidate for President to raise money to help the citizens of South Dakota repeal that law. When anti-choice protesters blocked the opening of an Illinois Planned Parenthood clinic in a community where affordable health care is in short supply, I was the only candidate for President who spoke out against it. And I will continue to defend this right by passing the Freedom of Choice Act as president.

January 22, 2008

Barack Obama posted:

Asked about the Freedom of Choice Act at Wednesday’s news conference, Obama said it “is not the highest legislative priority.”

April 29, 2009

B B fucked around with this message at 17:44 on Oct 28, 2023

B B
Dec 1, 2005

I don't think that politely asking the Israelis to carry out their genocide in a somewhat more restrained manner counts as a "massive change in posture," particularly when Biden is openly casting doubt on the number of Palestinian dead and you have Democratic senators saying that the Palestinians wouldn't even benefit from a cease fire:

https://twitter.com/ballesteros_312/status/1718019197366669344

The Palestinians are better off if the IDF continues to indiscriminately bomb them is quite the take, but it's one that at least some elected Democrats seem to believe.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Joe Biden saying "I support your right to defend yourself but not your right to indiscriminately kill civilians" while asking Congress for billions in funding for military aid that would allow Israel to continue to indiscriminately kill Palestinian civilians makes me think that Joe Biden supports Israel indiscriminately killing Palestinian civilians.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Main Paineframe posted:

This obsession with what the parties are doing is the core problem here, honestly. The reason the parties don't support the things we want is because the American population in general doesn't support the things that we want. If we build support for those things, then at least one of the parties will shift. Actually voting, by itself, is not an effective method of meaningfully shifting politics. If you can't find sufficient candidates who reflect your views, that's because your views are not popular enough.

According to YouGov polling, only 18% of Americans think Israel's current actions toward Gaza are too harsh. 22% think that Israel's current actions aren't harsh enough, and 35% think they're just right. Even if you cut out the Trump voters and look only at Biden voters, only 30% of Biden voters answered "too harsh", vs 45% answering "just right" or "not harsh enough". That's not exactly an overwhelming consensus against Israel's current actions. As for general backing of Israel, Biden voters were 47-23 in favor of continuing to send financial aid to Israel, and 59-21 in favor of sending humanitarian aid to Palestine.

And most importantly, a whopping 70% of Biden voters said that "protecting Israel" was important (with half of them ranking it as Very Important) and 51% said that Hamas was a "serious threat" to the US (with 38% ranking it as an immediate and very serious threat).

All those numbers line up pretty well with Biden's current stance toward Israel: pushing for the border to be opened for humanitarian aid, but still continuing to financially support Israel with no real pressure against them other than insistent scolding not backed up by action, and simultaneously calling for the complete destruction of Hamas by any means.

It's pretty clear that in general, the American people does not think that the events in Gaza are a genocide, and even among Democratic voters it's still very much the minority view. But the magic secret to electoral politics is that if we shift the opinions of the voters, then the electoral situation can change even before election day. If the electorate becomes more pro-Palestine, then some sitting politicians will shift their position toward Palestine, and more pro-Palestine candidates will show up as options in races. And the nice thing about this is that since it doesn't actually have any direct relationship to voting, you can build the political pressure against Israel while still voting for the least transphobic candidate in each and every election, instead of crossing your arms and saying that you don't care what happens to trans people as long as Dems support Israel.

The vast majority of Democratic voters support a cease fire, and there is majority support for a cease fire across party lines:



And yet, not even Bernie Sanders is calling for a cease fire. Some Democratic senators, as posted above, are even going so far as to suggest that the Palestinians wouldn't be better off with a cease fire--that the Palestinians getting bombed indiscriminately is better off than the alternative.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Eric Cantonese posted:

Is the polling thread still open?

Anyway, Biden’s polling behind Trump in six swing states according to a NY Times/Siena poll.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html

For reference, 538 gives this pollster an A rating and indicates it has a 0.2 R lean. I think it is a bit early for polling like this to be all that informative, but I won't be surprised if the election is much closer than last time given Biden's pretty lackluster job performance and the poor state of the economy. It also wouldn't be that surprising if Trump ended up ultimately winning.

Edit: Also some new polling from ABC:

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1721166493776330851

B B fucked around with this message at 14:18 on Nov 5, 2023

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Here are results from some of NYT/Siena's final 2022 election polling:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1587045620258377728

Here are the actual results from these races:

AZ Senate Results
Dem - 51.39
Rep - 46.51

PA Senate Results
Dem - 51.2
Rep - 46.3

GA Senate Results
Dem - 49.44
Rep - 48.49

NV Senate Results
Dem - 48.81
Rep - 48.04

In my opinion, NYT/Siena seems to know what they are doing with their polling.

As one of the Pod Jon's points out, polls a year out aren't completely worthless:

https://twitter.com/jonfavs/status/1721208097073762671

B B fucked around with this message at 17:59 on Nov 5, 2023

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Bar Ran Dun posted:

Those are Final polls though not one year out, haven’t even started the primaries polls.

It’s almost like that makes a huge difference!

Sure it does. But they're a good pollster, and those numbers very well may reflect where the race stands today. There's a lot of time between now and election day for the Democratic Party to reverse these sorts of trends, but they should absolutely be worried by those numbers.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

cr0y posted:

I think people are justifiably concerned about polls for 2024 because we aren't sure if there's going to be a 2028 if we can't get this one to go our way.

This is most certainly the most important election of our lifetime, just like the last one, the next one, and the one after that.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Eric Cantonese posted:

Any doomscrolling fuel for Election Day yet?

Just a heads up that we're still about about 2 hours and 40 minutes away from polls closing in VA. Results will start coming in pretty quick, but it'll probably be like noon tomorrow before we have a solid picture of who is in control. With that said, Virginia also very recently decided control of the House of Delegates by drawing a name out of a hat, so maybe not. In any case, I look forward to :f5:ing with you. I can post some sites later for following vote counts when we get closer.

gurragadon posted:

I'm not sure of anywhere but i'll get you started with a personal anecdote. My polling place outside of Richmond was empty but there were a lot of people giving out information for Democrats but only one lady giving out stuff for Republicans. Looks like early voting was down this year from 2021.

https://www.pilotonline.com/2023/11/06/virginia-elections-by-the-numbers-voter-turnout-appears-down-campaign-spending-brings-in-millions/

I'm interested in the Richmond centric issue about the casino proposal, I'm not in a district that votes on it though. It's frustrating because the proposal was rejected a year or two ago already, but they came back with basically the same proposal and a huge media push.

https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2023-11-07/virginias-capital-city-voting-again-on-whether-to-allow-a-casino

I voted early this year, but I live right next to a polling place and have been keeping an eye on traffic to and from throughout the day. Purely anecdotal, but it does seem a bit less active than in years past. I'm nervous about the outcome because of the possibility of the looming abortion ban.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Polls close in VA in 10 minutes. As promised, here are some resources you may find useful in tracking election results:

Virginia State Board of Elections - Official Results

VPAP - This site is particularly good, because it offers an option to view election results by the most competitive races that are likely to decide control of both houses of the state legislature. Unless something really weird happens, control of both houses will come down to the seats identified by the "featured races only" filter. This site has also historically updated their results very quickly as districts release their data.

In terms of when to expect results, here's a note from the AP:

AP posted:

HOW LONG DOES VOTE COUNTING USUALLY TAKE?

In the 2022 congressional midterm general election, the AP first reported results in 10 of 11 congressional districts between 7:09 p.m. and 7:30 p.m. ET. In the 11th congressional district, the first votes were reported at 8:31 p.m. ET. By noon the day after Election Day, 98% of the vote across all congressional districts had been counted.

https://apnews.com/article/virginia-election-state-legislature-what-to-watch-f5901d85cec6081d6c0409321a908d63

I'll keep an eye out for any interesting streams I find.

Really hoping I wake up tomorrow in a state where abortion will remain legal through the next legislative cycle, at least.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Sublimer posted:

Did NYT get rid of The Needle? I’m not seeing it on mobile and don’t have access to my pc right now.

I think that's really only a thing for national elections. As far as I know, it's based on a model that uses polling data, and there's nowhere near enough "good" polling for that to be valuable for the races happening tonight.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

While we are posting Dave Wasserman tweets, here's his prediction for how things go tonight in VA:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1722030020116267275

:pray:, because we need only the Senate to prevent the worst of what Youngkin wants to do (namely, ban abortion).

B B
Dec 1, 2005

While we wait for election results, CNN has a new poll out that shows Trump leading Biden:

CNN posted:

CNN Poll: Trump narrowly leads Biden in hypothetical rematch

One year out from Election Day 2024, former President Donald Trump narrowly leads President Joe Biden, 49% to 45% among registered voters, in a hypothetical rematch in the latest CNN poll conducted by SSRS. Biden’s reelection chances are buffeted by deeply negative approval ratings, a stagnant sense that things are going poorly in the United States, diminished support among key voter blocs, and a widespread sense that he is not up for the job.

In the potential rematch between Biden and Trump, neither candidate has much room for growth. All told, 51% of voters nationwide say there is no chance at all that they would vote for Biden, and just 4% are not currently supporting him but say there is a chance they will. Nearly half, 48%, say there is no chance they will vote for Trump, and only 2% that they aren’t currently backing him but would consider it.

Biden’s support in the poll is significantly weaker now among several groups that he previously won by wide margins and were critical to his election in 2020. Among voters younger than 35, 48% support Trump, 47% Biden. Political independents break 45% Trump to 41% Biden. Black voters favor Biden, 73%vs. Trump’s 23%, while Latino voters split 50% Biden to 46% Trump. And among voters of color generally, women divide 63% Biden to 31% Trump, while men split about evenly, 49% Trump to 46% Biden.

All of those margins reflect significant declines in support for Biden compared with 2020 exit polls. While those who actually turn out to vote are not the same as registered voters, and with a full year to go before the election, there is time for voters’ views to shift, the differences between then and now are stark. Biden won voters younger than 35 by 21 points nationally, independents by 13 points, Black voters by 75 points and Latino voters by 33 points. Among voters of color, he won both women and men by wide margins: women by 53 points, men by 34.

Just a quarter of Americans (25%) say Biden has the stamina and sharpness to serve effectively as president, while 53% feel Trump does. Only about half of Democrats (51%) say Biden has the sharpness and stamina to serve, compared with 90% of Republicans who say Trump does.

Biden’s approval rating - 39% approve, 61% disapprove – is largely worse than previous modern presidents at this point in their reelection bids. His rating is about on par with Trump’s as of late October 2019 (Trump stood at 41% approval at this point). Jimmy Carter was the only president with a significantly lower approval rating than Biden at this point. One year out from Election Day 1980, just 32% approved of Carter’s work as president – he ultimately lost reelection. And Biden’s job performance currently draws far more intense opposition than impassioned support: 42% of Americans strongly disapprove of his performance, with just 14% strongly approving. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the same approval rating as Biden, 39% approve, 61% disapprove.

The new poll finds 72% of all Americans say things in the country today are going badly. A broad majority have felt that way for the entirety of Biden’s time in office. At best, 60% said things were going badly in March 2021.

Voters who disapprove of Biden’s performance and those who say things are going badly in the country both break heavily in Trump’s favor, 79% Trump to 12% Biden among disapprovers, and 65% Trump to 27% Biden among those who say things are going badly. Those who only somewhat disapprove of Biden’s performance helped to propel Democrats to a surprisingly strong showing in last year’s midterms (exit polls found they broke 49% for the Democratic candidates in their US House districts to 45% for the Republicans, despite their qualms about Biden). Biden does fare better among weak disapprovers than strong disapprovers in the new poll, but he still lags behind Trump with these voters (46% Trump to 40% Biden).

Biden trails former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in a hypothetical matchup between the two – 49% of registered voters back Haley, 43% Biden – and is also behind in a matchup with Trump as the GOP nominee where two declared independent candidates are included: 41% Trump, 35% Biden, 16% Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and 4% Cornel West, although that level of support for candidates outside of the two main parties has rarely materialized when actual votes are cast. A hypothetical matchup between Biden and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in next year’s contest is much closer with no clear leader, 48% DeSantis to 46% Biden.

Primary matchups for both parties suggest a Biden vs. Trump election is the most likely scenario as of now. Trump holds 61% to DeSantis’ 17% and Haley’s 10% on the GOP side, with no other candidate in double digits among Republican-aligned voters. Biden stands 60 points ahead of his newest challenger, with 71% support among Democratic-aligned voters to Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips’ 11% and author Marianne Williamson at 8%.

Trump’s narrow advantage over Biden comes even as public perceptions of the former president remain deeply negative. But the poll suggests Biden’s image is even worse, and those with negative views of both candidates break in Trump’s favor.

When asked if each of them is more a part of the problem or more a part of the solution in dealing with the nation’s issues, 61% of all Americans say Biden is more a part of the problem, and 57% that Trump is. Independents are a touch more likely to see Biden than Trump as part of the problem, 67% vs. 63%.

Both Biden and Trump have favorability ratings that are deeply underwater: 36% favorable vs. 59% unfavorable for Biden, 38% favorable vs. 56% unfavorable for Trump.

Among the 19% of registered voters who see both Biden and Trump as part of the problem, 46% say they’d vote Trump, 34% Biden and 17% for someone else. Likewise, the 18% of registered voters who have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump split 44% Trump, 35% Biden and 17% for someone else.

Assessing each man’s attributes, the poll finds that those the public sees as Biden’s greatest weaknesses are also perceived as Trump’s biggest strengths (having the stamina and sharpness to serve, 25% Biden to 53% Trump, along with being an effective world leader, 36% Biden vs. 48% Trump). And likewise, Trump’s weaknesses appear to be among Biden’s strengths (51% say Biden respects the rule of law compared with just 35% who say Trump does, and 42% say Biden is honest and trustworthy while only 33% feel the same way about Trump). Both candidates, though, fall far short on being someone Americans would be proud to have as president: Just 33% say they feel that way about Biden, 38% about Trump.

As of now, Republican-aligned voters appear to be more motivated to vote than Democratic-aligned voters and to express significantly more intense feelings about Biden. All told, 71% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say they are extremely motivated to vote in next year’s presidential election vs. 61% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters. And Republicans are about 50 points likelier to strongly disapprove of Biden’s job performance (82%) than Democrats are to strongly approve (30%).

Voters are evenly divided over whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with the candidates they have to choose from next year, 50% land on each side. Republicans are far more satisfied than Democrats (67% satisfied vs. 44% among Democrats), with independents largely unsatisfied (just 33% are satisfied with their choices). Among Democratic-aligned voters, younger voters are less satisfied than older ones (34% satisfied among those younger than 45 vs. 46% among those 45 and older), but there is no equivalent age gap among Republican-aligned voters (65% younger than 45 are satisfied as are 64% of those age 45 and up).

Amid all of these signs of dampened enthusiasm, Biden’s campaign has argued they have a year to tout the president’s accomplishments and rally their base, but the poll suggests they start at a significant disadvantage.

The economy appears to be a prominent issue heading in to next year’s election, with 66% of registered voters saying it will be extremely important to their vote next year. Half or more say that election integrity and voting rights (57%), gun policy (52%), crime (52%) and immigration (50%) are that important. Fewer cite foreign policy (43%), abortion (42%), climate change (31%) or policies toward transgender people (17%).

As in the past few election cycles, there are broad differences between the issues Democratic voters call important and those central for Republican voters. For Republicans, the economy (81% extremely important among Republican-aligned voters vs. 50% extremely important among Democratic-aligned voters), immigration (73% vs. 30%), crime (66% vs. 39%) and foreign policy (55% vs. 33%) are deemed significantly more important than for Democrats, while those on the Democratic side are significantly more likely than those aligned with the GOP to call abortion (51% to 33%), climate change (51% to 11%) and gun policy (59% to 47%) top concerns. Despite its prominence in the rhetoric around the GOP primary thus far, very few consider policies toward transgender people deeply important to their vote, and more Democratic-aligned voters say it is that important than do Republicans (24% to 9%).

The only issue tested in the poll where both sides agree on its importance is voting rights and election integrity (60% of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters call it extremely important, 58% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters say the same). Most Americans, 54%, say American democracy is under attack. And as in prior CNN polling, that view is more widespread among Republicans (64% feel that way) than Democrats (50%).

More broadly speaking, 72% of Americans say there are important differences between the parties, while 28% say they are pretty much the same. Independents are less apt to see critical differences (54% say so while 45% say that the parties are pretty much the same), and Republicans are a bit more likely than Democrats to say there are important differences (84% vs. 79%). Those voters who see “important differences” split almost evenly between Biden and Trump in general election preferences (49% Trump to 47% Biden) while the “pretty much the same” group breaks for Trump (50% Trump to 39% Biden, 8% other).

The poll’s result on a generic congressional ballot is near even with no clear leader: 48% say they would vote for the Republican in their district to 47% for the Democrat. Notably, those voters younger than 35 break broadly to Democrats on this question, 56% back the Democrat, 37% the Republican.

More Americans see Republican leaders in Congress as part of the problem in dealing with the nation’s top issues than say the same of Democratic leaders in Congress (63% see GOP leaders as part of the problem vs. 58% for Democratic leaders). And the House’s new speaker, Rep. Mike Johnson, begins his tenure largely unknown (52% have never heard of him or have no opinion), and with an underwater favorability rating among those who do have an opinion (20% favorable to 27% unfavorable).

The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from October 27-November 2 among a random national sample of 1,514 adults drawn from a probability-based panel. Surveys were either conducted online or by telephone with a live interviewer. Results among the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. For results among the 1,271 registered voters surveyed, the error margin is plus or minus 3.3 points.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/07/politics/cnn-poll-trump-biden-matchup


:hellyeah:

B B
Dec 1, 2005

I always write myself in for sheriff, and I regret to inform you all that I have seen enough: I have lost yet another election for sheriff in Virginia. :(

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Ohio now has constitutional protection for abortion access:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1722062934023483640


:glomp:

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Quick Virginia update.

Democrats are currently leading 9 to 6 in the senate (21 are needed for a majority), and the races that will likely determine control are pretty evenly split right now:



Looking like a nail-biter on the senate side at the moment. :smith:

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Nelson Mandingo posted:

Roem is apparently predicted to win. So Virginia is locked up for dems. I can see why Youngkin is against abortion, when his presidential aspirations were terminated before viable.

Tonight was a victory march. I can only hope that republicans double down on abortion next year.

Where are you seeing that it's locked up? 10 races are called for Democrats, 8 races are called for Republicans, and 21 are needed for a majority. Roem was favored to win. These are the five races that are likely going to determine the outcome, and none of them has been officially called yet:



Edit: To be clear, I hope you're right, but I think your call is very premature.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Zore posted:

They're basing it on the Crystal Ball people on Twitter who are calling 16, 24 and 31 for the Dems based on the fact that that what's remaining is mostly early vote which leans overwhelmingly D.

Fair enough. Also just saw this:

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1722065992229048659

Good news overall. Hope the trend holds.

E:

Nelson Mandingo posted:

Ben Tribbett, so you're right it's nothing official. And could definitely turn out wrong. But tonight has generally pretty much gone dems way as it is, so far.

Thanks for clarifying!

B B
Dec 1, 2005

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1722072374718169538

:hellyeah:

Abortion rights live in Virginia.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Pobrecito posted:

Is it revenge porn if you're uhhh having sex on camera on a publicly available cam model website?

Not judging or anything, but like that seems to be a wild stretch of the usage of that term.

I'm not going to get too hung up on the definition of revenge porn, but this is the kind of ad the Republicans were running:



It was very obvious slut-shaming of a woman who *gasp* had sex with her husband.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Crunch Buttsteak posted:

I'm curious to see how long this manufactured evangelical "bum-rush the school board with right-wing grievances to take it over" strategy is gonna last. Like yes there are a few "successes" here and there but even in the high-profile cases where MAGA types take over school boards and start banning books and pride flags, it seems like virtually everyone in the school district goes "wow this sucks complete rear end" if you put a microphone in front of them.

One quick note about this related to Virginia elections. There was a very big controversy in Hanover County earlier this year about an unelected school board banning a bunch of books:

https://richmond.com/news/local/edu...7c8e1b95ca.html

Hanover is a *heavily* Republican county, but it pissed off enough of their residents that a ballot proposition for direct election of school board members is currently winning by a decent margin:

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Very quick update on the VA House of Delegates:



Dems have won 42 of the 51 seats needed for a majority. It's very possible that they can hold the Senate and pick up control of the House.

TL;DR: Glenn Youngkin is having a terrible night and is looking less presidential by the second. Also lol. Lmao even.

B B fucked around with this message at 03:12 on Nov 8, 2023

B B
Dec 1, 2005

I really do not want to be the person who jinxes this, but Susanna Gibson is back in the lead:

B B
Dec 1, 2005

cr0y posted:

So I'm on a work project and can only check my phone like once every 15 minutes. Can someone point me to or give me a summary?

Democrats are winning big everywhere except Mississippi.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1722092511789826355?s=20

Democrats are on track to win the House of Delegates in Virginia.* Increasingly looking like a rout.

* This would give the Democratic Party complete control of the legislature in Virginia; they currently control only one house.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

B B posted:

I really do not want to be the person who jinxes this, but Susanna Gibson is back in the lead:



Susanna Gibson has extended her lead:



I very much hope she wins. Partly because she is an incredible advocate for abortion rights, but also because it'd be wonderful to see a woman overcome all of the slut-shaming.

B B fucked around with this message at 04:05 on Nov 8, 2023

B B
Dec 1, 2005

GoutPatrol posted:

I am happy good things happened today.

As someone affected by the good things that happened today, me too!

B B
Dec 1, 2005

i am a moron posted:

So I’m asking because this:

Seems totally wrong? The parties don’t tend to really allow challenges to incumbents either do they?

LBJ is probably the only example of what you're asking. With that said, Biden has historically low approval ratings. He's polling worse than Trump at the same point in his presidency, and the only president who polled worse is Jimmy Carter.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

Biden is a uniquely unpopular president, so it's not all that surprising that there's discussion over whether or not he should be running for re-election.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Elizabeth warren got confronted during dinner by a Palestinian refugee who has lost 68 family members in Israel's indiscriminate murder of civilians in Gaza:

https://twitter.com/JVPBoston/status/1722848277819760865

She was met with protesters as she left the dinner:

https://twitter.com/micahinATL/status/1722799841057632451

Hopefully we see more of these types of things until elected Democrats locate their humanity and call for a ceasefire. I don't know if shame is really an effective tactic against elected politicians, though.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Kalit posted:

Eh, being obnoxious towards a politician who is already critical of Israel's invasion and calling for a ceasefire seems like a good way to push them away from the protester's side :shrug:

It seems to me that if Warren had called for a ceasefire (she hasn't, by the way), she would have been able to respond to the protester by saying "I have already called for a ceasefire." All she has called for is a "short-term cessation of hostilities that pose high-risk to civilians." The statement that article you posted is at the link below. The word "ceasefire," which is not the same thing as a "short-term cessation of hostilities," does not appear once.

https://www.markey.senate.gov/news/press-releases/statement-of-senators-regarding-humanitarian-aid-to-civilians-in-gaza

Kalit posted:

Do you think that harassing a person over an issue where they are on the same side as you would make said person more sympathetic?

IMO, it absolutely does not and could easily build resentment over time.

They're not on the same side. The protester wants a ceasefire, which Elizabeth Warren has not publicly supported.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

More protesters confronting Democratic Senators. In this case, Senator Fetterman seems incapable of acknowledging that killing 10,000 civilians, 4,000 of whom were children, is bad:

https://twitter.com/michaelarria/status/1723052309310038116

B B
Dec 1, 2005

zoux posted:

How much new foreign aid has the US sent since October 7th?

We send $3.8 billion annually, and Biden wants to send at least $14.3 billion more as a result of the events of October 7. It's waiting on congressional approval.

Source: https://www.axios.com/2023/11/04/us-israel-aid-military-funding-chart

B B
Dec 1, 2005

davecrazy posted:

Why exactly is Osama Bin Laden being rehabilitated on ticktock?

Not really sure why the "Dear America" letter is getting so much attention from zoomers. There is a much funnier and much more correct OBL letter out there:

OBL posted:

I asked Shaykh Sa'id, Allah have mercy on his soul, to task brother Ilyas to prepare two groups - one in Pakistan and the other in the Bagram area of Afghanistan - with the mission of anticipating and spotting the visits of Obama or Petraeus to Afghanistan or Pakistan to target the aircraft of either one of them. They are not to target visits by US Vice President Biden, Secretary of Defense Gates, Joint Chiefs of Staff (Chairman) Mullen, or the Special Envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan Holbrook. The groups will remain on the lookout for Obama or Petraeus. The reason for concentrating on them is that Obama is the head of infidelity and killing him automatically will make Biden take over the presidency for the remainder of the term, as it is the norm over there. Biden is totally unprepared for that post, which will lead the US into a crisis. As for Petraeus, he is the man of the hour in this last year of the war, and killing him would alter the war's path.

https://ctc.westpoint.edu/harmony-program/letter-from-ubl-to-atiyatullah-al-libi-4-original-language-2/

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

https://x.com/HeerJeet/status/1725392874492035517?s=20

Whole thing was bullshit astroturf guys

Just exploiting "dumb zoomer" bias

:laffo:

The whole article on this is great:

Washington Post posted:

How Osama bin Laden’s ‘Letter to America’ reached millions online
Videos citing the document had been viewed far less than many TikTok posts. Then a journalist made a compilation and posted it to X, causing attention to the manifesto to explode.

On Monday, a TikTok user with 371 followers, using the screen name “_monix2,” posted a video where she read parts of Osama bin Laden’s “Letter to America,” in which the late terrorist leader said his killings of nearly 3,000 Americans in the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks had been justified by the United States’ support of Israel’s “occupation” of Palestine.

By Wednesday night, the letter had become a point of discussion among left-wing creators on the wildly popular video app, with some saying its critiques of American foreign policy had opened their eyes to a history they’d never learned.

But the letter didn’t rank among TikTok’s top trends. Videos with the #lettertoamerica hashtag had been seen about 2 million times — a relatively low count on a wildly popular app with 150 million accounts in the United States alone.

Then that evening, the journalist Yashar Ali shared a compilation he’d made of the TikTok videos in a post on X, formerly Twitter. That post has been viewed more than 28 million times. By Thursday afternoon, when TikTok announced it had banned the hashtag and dozens of similar variations, TikTok videos tagged #lettertoamerica had gained more than 15 million views.

The letter’s spread sparked a deluge of commentary, with some worrying that TikTok’s users were being radicalized by a terrorist manifesto, and TikTok’s critics arguing it was evidence that the app, owned by the Chinese tech giant ByteDance, had been secretly boosting propaganda to a captive audience of American youth.

But the letter’s spread also reflected the bedeviling realities of modern social media, where young people — many of whom were born after 9/11 — share and receive information on fast-paced smartphone apps designed to make videos go viral, regardless of their content.


It also showed how efforts to suppress such information can backfire. Many of the videos on TikTok were posted after the British newspaper the Guardian, which had hosted a copy of bin Laden’s letter, removed it. Some TikTokers said the removal was proof of the letter’s wisdom and importance, leading them to further amplify it as a result.

“Don’t turn the long-public ravings of a terrorist into forbidden knowledge, something people feel excited to go rediscover,” Renee DiResta, a research manager at the Stanford internet Observatory who has advised Congress on online disinformation, wrote Thursday in a post on Threads. “Let people read the murderer’s demands — this is the man some TikTok fools chose to glorify. Add more context.”

TikTok spokesman Alex Haurek said Thursday that the company was “proactively and aggressively” removing videos promoting the letter for violating the company’s rules on “supporting any form of terrorism” and said it was “investigating” how the videos got onto its platform.

Haurek said that the #lettertoamerica hashtag had been attached to 274 videos that had garnered 1.8 million views on Tuesday and Wednesday, before “the tweets and media coverage drove people to the hashtag.” Other hashtags, for comparison, dwarfed discussion of the letter on the platform: During a recent 24-hour period, #travel videos had 137 million views, #skincare videos had 252 million views and #anime videos had 611 million views, Haurek said.

Ali said he made the compilation video Wednesday after seeing “thousands” of the videos and intentionally left out the “most incendiary examples” because he didn’t want the compilation to be removed from Instagram, where he also posted it.

He agreed the hashtag had never trended on TikTok but disputed the idea that the number of videos posted there had been “small,” saying, “Sure, in the context of a global platform. But not small enough to be minuscule or not important.”

Most of the videos have since been removed by TikTok, making it difficult to get a full tally. But a search for the letter Thursday morning by a Washington Post reporter revealed around 700 TikTok videos, only a few of which got more than 1 million views.

Such high view counts are common on TikTok, where videos are served up in rapid fashion and the average U.S. user watches for more than an hour a day. One viral video last month, in which a young woman discussed the pain of a 9-to-5 job, has more than 3 million views and 280,000 likes.

The videos featured many people saying they’d known little about bin Laden and were questioning what they’d been taught about American involvement around the world. Some said they were “trying to go back to life as normal” after reading it; in one video, a user scrolled through the full letter and said, “We’ve been lied to our entire lives.”

But while many pointed to bin Laden’s comments on Palestine, few highlighted the letter’s more extreme criticism of Western “immorality and debauchery,” including “acts of fornication, homosexuality, intoxicants, gambling and trading with interest.”

Many commenters also criticized giving the letter attention or worked to remind people that bin Laden had preached an antisemitic, sexist ideology that led to thousands of deaths. On the “_monix2” video, one commenter said, “You guys Bin Laden wrote this. Do y’all know what he did. What is wrong with y’all [oh my God. I guess] we’re supporting terrorism these days.” (Attempts to reach the @_monix2 account were unsuccessful.)

Charlie Winter, a specialist in Islamist militant affairs and director of research at the intelligence platform ExTrac, said in an interview Thursday that he was “frankly really quite surprised at the response” to the letter, which he described as “a kind of core doctrinal text” for both al-Qaeda and the Islamic State terrorist group.

In addition to long-standing grievances, the letter contains “blatant language that is clearly calling for acts of genocide … [and] for killing noncombatants in any nation that is democratic and is fighting against a Muslim-majority state,” he said.
“It’s not the letter that is going viral. It’s a selective reading of parts of the letter that’s going viral,” he said. “And I don’t know whether it’s because people aren’t actually reading it or, when they’re reading it, they’re reading the bits that they want to see.”

The letter’s spread online was celebrated Thursday by users on al-Qaeda forums, according to SITE Intelligence Group, which tracks online extremism. One user Thursday wrote that Islamist militants should capitalize on the opportunity, saying, “I hope you all are seeing ongoing storm on Social Media. … We should post more and more content.”

Some of the TikTok creators who shared the letter posted follow-up videos saying they did not support terrorism or violence. One of the first TikTok creators to share it, and who spoke to The Post on the condition that her name not be included in the story, said she had encouraged people to read it for “educational purposes.”

She said she did not “condone nor justify” bin Laden’s actions and was “distancing [herself] from this entire situation.” “It’s a sad world if we cannot even read a public document, simply to educate ourselves, without being smeared online,” she said.

TikTok has faced criticism and calls for a nationwide ban due to the popularity of pro-Palestinian videos on the app compared with pro-Israel content, even though Facebook and Instagram show a similar gap. In a video call organized by TikTok on Wednesday, first reported by the New York Times, some Hollywood actors and TikTok creators pushed company executives to do more to crack down on antisemitic content.

But the idea that the “Letter to America” discussion solely began on TikTok is challenged by Google data, which show that search interest in the “bin Laden letter” began gathering last week, days before it became a topic of TikTok conversation.
And TikTok is far from the only place where the letter has been discussed. Though Instagram blocked searches for some hashtags, some videos related to the letter — including those critical of it — remained publicly viewable Thursday on the Meta-owned app.

On Thursday afternoon, searches for “letter to America” on Instagram were still being given a “Popular” tag. One post, a series of screenshots of the letter, had more than 10,000 likes as of Thursday afternoon.

On Thursday, the letter and bin Laden’s name were also “trending topics” on X, the social network owned by Elon Musk. One tweet there from Wednesday — in which the writer said reading the letter was like feeling a “glass wall shatter,” and asks, “Is this what ex cult members feel like when they become self aware” — remained online Thursday, with nearly 3 million views.

The letter — a nearly 4,000-word translation of the al-Qaeda leader’s comments — had been originally posted in Arabic on a Saudi Arabian website used to disseminate al-Qaeda messages. The Guardian originally published an English translation in 2002 alongside a news article that offered more detail on how it had begun circulating among “British Islamic extremists.”

Though the Guardian removed the letter on Wednesday, its replacement, a page called “Removed: document,” had by Thursday become one of the most-viewed stories on the newspaper’s website. Some TikTokers voiced anger at the newspaper for, in the words of one, “actively censoring” information.

A spokesperson for the Guardian said in a statement that the letter had been removed after it was “widely shared on social media without the full context.”


The editors of the Guardian faced a “no-win scenario” once interest in bin Laden’s letter began to grow, Marco Bastos, a senior lecturer in media and communication at City, University of London, said in a phone interview.

“If they don’t take down the content, the content will be leveraged and it will be discussed, potentially shared and is going to go viral — if not out of context, then certainly outside of the scope of the original piece,” Bastos said. “If they take it down, they’re going to be accused, as they are right now, of censorship.”

At the time of publication, the editors “expected that this letter would be read critically, you know, adversarially … that you would process this within the view — or the bias, if you prefer — of the Western side of the events,” Bastos added. “And now it’s being consumed, distributed and shared to push an agenda that’s precisely the opposite of the one that it was originally intended for.”

Winter, the Islamist militant affairs specialist, said he found it “kind of ironic” that the letter was being shared uncritically around the web.

“People who consider themselves to be critical consumers of mainstream media are consuming this very uncritically and not thinking about the context around it,” he said. “Not thinking about everything that happened just over a year before it was published as well, in any meaningful way.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/style/2023/11/16/guardian-osama-bin-laden-letter-to-america/

The people who pearl clutched about this and the editors at The Guardian are dumb as dogshit.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Biden's approval rating continues its free fall:

https://twitter.com/MeetThePress/status/1726240932507349100





NBC posted:

Poll: Biden’s standing hits new lows amid Israel-Hamas war

Young voters are breaking from Biden, helping give Trump a narrow lead for the first time in NBC News polling, though the gap is within the margin of error.

President Joe Biden’s approval rating has declined to the lowest level of his presidency — 40% — as strong majorities of all voters disapprove of his handling of foreign policy and the Israel-Hamas war, according to the latest national NBC News poll.

What’s more, the poll finds Biden behind former President Donald Trump for the first time in a hypothetical general-election matchup, although the deficit is well within the poll’s margin of error for a contest that’s still more than 11 months away.

The erosion for Biden is most pronounced among Democrats, a majority of whom believe Israel has gone too far in its military action in Gaza, and among voters ages 18 to 34, with a whopping 70% of them disapproving of Biden’s handling of the war.

“I do not support his support of Israel,” said Meg Furey, 40, a Democrat from Austin, Texas.

“Failed promises, student loans, foreign policy in general,” said Democrat Zico Schell, 23, of San Diego, when asked why he disapproves of Biden’s job performance.

“Joe Biden is at a uniquely low point in his presidency, and a significant part of this, especially within the Biden coalition, is due to how Americans are viewing his foreign policy actions,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.

McInturff said he can’t recall another time when foreign affairs not involving U.S. troops transformed the American political landscape.

“This poll is a stunner, and it’s stunning because of the impact the Israel-Hamas war is having on Biden,” he said.

But Horwitt cautioned that Biden can bring these disaffected Democrats and younger voters back into the fold. “These are people who have a proven track record in voting for Biden and Democrats,” he said.

And, he added, there’s plenty of time — and more potential political surprises to come — between now and Election Day 2024, which could see the political landscape transform again.

“Jury verdicts in Trump’s trials, unforeseen events both foreign and domestic, and the rigors of a campaign all have a funny way of upending what may be true today,” Horwitt said.

According to the poll, 40% of registered voters approve of Biden’s job performance, while 57% disapprove, representing Biden’s all-time low in approval (and all-time high in disapproval) in the poll since becoming president.

It’s only a slight overall change from September, when Biden’s approval rating was at 41% — which was then tied with his previous low in the poll.

Yet what stands out in the new survey is the shift among voters ages 18 to 34. In September, 46% of these voters said they approved of Biden’s job performance.

Now? Biden’s approval rating dropped to 31% among these voters.


Sixty-two percent now disapprove of Biden’s handling of foreign policy

In another low for the president, just 33% of all voters approve of Biden’s handling of foreign policy, which is down 8 points from September.

That compares with 62% of voters, including 30% of Democrats, who say they disapprove of the president’s handling of foreign policy.

And only 34% of all voters approve of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, versus 56% who say they disapprove.

By party, only half of Democratic voters (51%) say they approve of Biden’s handling of the war, compared with majorities of independents (59%) and Republicans (69%) who say they disapprove.

On the economy, fewer than 4 in 10 voters — 38% — say they approve of the president’s handling of the issue, which is up 1 point from September.


Democrats are divided over the Israel-Hamas war

The NBC News poll — conducted Nov. 10-14 — comes more than a month after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, which killed more than 1,000 Israelis, and the subsequent war in Gaza, which has killed thousands more Palestinians, according to Gaza health officials.

The poll finds a plurality of American voters, 47%, believing that Israel is defending its interests in the war, and that its military actions in Gaza are justified.

By comparison, 30% think that Israel’s military actions have gone too far and are not justified. Another 21% say they don’t know enough to have an opinion.

Yet among Democratic voters, 51% believe Israel has gone too far, versus 27% who say Israel’s military actions are justified.

And while a majority of all voters (55%) support the United States providing military aid to Israel, almost half of Democrats (49%) say they oppose this aid.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Protestors have disrupted the California Democratic Convention to call for a ceasefire:

https://twitter.com/IfNotNowOrg/status/1726022922601423349

https://twitter.com/IfNotNowOrg/status/1726016564804173859

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B B
Dec 1, 2005

Raenir Salazar posted:

IIRC didn't he only support it because he was misled about the intelligence about Saddam's role in 9/11 and then turned against invasion when this was bunk?

Here's Joe Biden a year after the invasion, when many of his colleagues had already started turning against the war:

Joe Biden posted:

Let me tell you what I see with Iraq. We had to go into Iraq, not because Saddam was part of Al Qaeda, there was no evidence of that, not because he possessed nuclear weapons or because he posed an imminent threat to the United States, there was no evidence of that. The legitimate reason for going into Iraq, was he violated every single commitment he made and warranted being taken down. And the international community and us had a right to respond.

But the fact is, that we are in Iraq, and I voted for us to go there.

https://web.archive.org/web/20070829204424/http:/biden.senate.gov/newsroom/details.cfm?id=222462&&

I don't think you recall correctly. That said, he has consistently and regularly lied about his various positions on the Iraq War, so it's possible you're thinking of one of his various misrepresentations of his position.

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