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xedo posted:That said, if kirakira is real and here, and is a serial killer that kills criminals, I could definitely see how a video game telling the true story of high school kids killing each other would be a motivation. Right, but again, motive doesn't narrow it down still. Anyone could be Kirakira. It could be the nurse for all we know, hence we have to look at the actual evidence that we have, circumstantial as it may be. All of the water bottles were used up, the killer would have been bloody, only one person was soaked, the killer had to have a good swing, etc, and how it links to people's alibis. Also, Celes and Maizono both killed to get out of there; Maizono wanted to leave because of the video, but she still killed to leave. Celes also didn't believe they could survive any longer in there, and while the money was incentive, she still needed to leave to use it. Every murder is charged with some need to leave. Regardless, my point still stands: motive that is not revealed until the culprit is ALSO revealed and is based on the need or want to leave does not aid us at all, because everyone has the motive to leave. The fact that there may be other motive is negated by that simple fact; it makes all culprits equal. Kuzuryuu could have killed her out of revenge, but Gundam could have also done it because he's Kirakira, or Sonia because she wants to get back to her nation, or even Nagito because he's insane.
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Aug 15, 2013 20:31
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John Dyne posted:Motive is not really a strong concern in this game simply due to that reason. Every single murder in DR1, and for all one of the murders so far in DR2, was because someone wanted to escape the situation they were in and took the route offered to them via murder. They always had reasons they wanted to escape, but the main factor was simply they wanted to leave the island. But it's not a strong motive for You're absolutely right that the motives are never truly revealed until the investigation though, and that's also partly what I'm saying. The most important clue, the motive, is always kept hidden. So people saying "Aha! The trivial detail slight indicates [person x] proves they were the killer" are stupid.
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Aug 15, 2013 20:41
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It doesn't help any that the two people with the testimony that might blow the whole case wide open are both lying through their teeth and/or playing dumb... Peko's targeting of Saionji may or may not have the best of intentions, but here's some food for thought: If Peko and Kuzuryuu made an agreement to conspire on the murder either before it took place, or even afterwards if Kuzu walked in on Peko killing Mahiru, why the elaborate job of framing Saionji? Since Kuzuryuu is going to die anyway (unless he plans to double cross her, but then why not make her easier to implicate? And why play along with framing Saionji?), he could just take the fall and confess, and say any other clues lying around were planted by him to toss everyone off the scent but hey, you got me, good job. Also, even if they had an agreement, why would Peko try and divert suspicion from Kuzu in the first place? If she was the killer it literally doesn't matter who gets found guilty as long as it isn't her. And as long as she doesn't say anything stupid, the odds of anyone pinning the crime on her are virtually nil. There is one piece of very circumstantial evidence, and literally anyone who had their swimsuit on (or claimed to be wearing one under their clothes) could have rinsed off and just dried in the sun or even used a towel. Basically, there isn't any particular reason for Peko to try and pin the blame on Saionji if Peko was the killer. Anyone would do and Kuzuryuu makes for the perfect fall guy whether he agreed to the role or not. Peko doesn't even need to say much since Kuzuryuu is busily digging his own grave. But she's trying to cast suspicion on Saionji. This seems to me more like the honest suspicion of someone trying to solve the crime rather than someone trying to avoid blame and pin it on someone else. Just keep in mind that it's in the killer's best interests to keep the trial as short as possible. The longer it goes on the more truths come to light and the greater the chance of Kuzuryuu wiggling off the hook. A good frame job should be, like any con, just Zip Zip Zip. You have a suspect with motive, opportunity, is lying to everyone about his alibis, and killed someone in the arcade game in the same manner as Mahiru. Explain any odd evidence (mask, water bottles) as an attempt to toss everyone off the scent, and get the vote going before Hinata or Nanami can get their thoughts together. Don't give people any time to think, just keep the trial rolling. Back to Saionji for a second, did anyone else notice she described the person in the mask as 'that guy' in one case? Slip of the tongue or did she actually use a gender neutral pronoun and Oren just interpreted it as 'that guy' instead of 'that person'? I mean, we know she was in the beach house since the time of the murder... it's harder to believe that she didn't see the killer than she did. So I'd assume she knew the killer's gender. Possibly their identity. But for some reason she doesn't want to talk. Why?
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Aug 15, 2013 22:08
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Knicknevin posted:Basically, there isn't any particular reason for Peko to try and pin the blame on Saionji if Peko was the killer. Anyone would do and Kuzuryuu makes for the perfect fall guy whether he agreed to the role or not. Peko doesn't even need to say much since Kuzuryuu is busily digging his own grave. But she's trying to cast suspicion on Saionji. This seems to me more like the honest suspicion of someone trying to solve the crime rather than someone trying to avoid blame and pin it on someone else. Indeed, it does look like the honest suspicion of someone trying to solve the crime. In all honesty, the only reason this is suspicious to me is because the way she does it seems like a character break to me. It could actually be the case that she's pushing the gummi issue simply because it's the only evidence she found that seems to point to a specific person. But she doesn't seem the type to rush to a hasty conclusion based on circumstantial evidence to me. Souda, Akane, Nidai or Saionji jumping to conclusions and forcing them on others I can see based on their hot-headed personalities, but Peko is anything but hot-headed. Knicknevin posted:Back to Saionji for a second, did anyone else notice she described the person in the mask as 'that guy' in one case? Slip of the tongue or did she actually use a gender neutral pronoun and Oren just interpreted it as 'that guy' instead of 'that person'? I mean, we know she was in the beach house since the time of the murder... it's harder to believe that she didn't see the killer than she did. So I'd assume she knew the killer's gender. Possibly their identity. But for some reason she doesn't want to talk. Why? Since I'm standing by my theory that Saionji stumbled onto the crime scene well after the murder, I think it's a case of her using something generic that may (or may not) have a slight male bent because serial killers tend in general to have a male connotation. Still, I am curious to know if the original Japanese word has a gender association with it. And as for why she's being so tight-lipped about her presence at the crime scene, well, since none of the students seem to be considering the '3 discoverers' rule (which at this point hasn't been confirmed by Monobear to specifically exclude the culprit) admitting that she was at the crime scene makes her a prime suspect due the to general rule that the discoverers of a body are the most suspicious witnesses. (It's actually quite the useful subversion Monobear's rule has set up if the discoverers do indeed exclude the culprit.) Also on a completely unrelated note, a lot of the theories I've seen involve the use of double subversions of evidence but I think that might be taking it a bit far. Sure, DR likes to subvert expectations a lot, but it still is a fair-play whodunnit and all of the cases so far don't have overly intricate explanations for how the evidence (and red herrings) were involved. Remember that the player doesn't have a lot of time to come up with an interpretation for the evidence; if a theory took you an hour to come up with, chances are you're overthinking it. LukanFox fucked around with this message at 22:45 on Aug 15, 2013 |
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Aug 15, 2013 22:42
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ApplesandOranges posted:I hadn't even considered Saionji's note was faked, but it seems likely when you combine it with the gummy to frame her. quote:"I wanted to tell you directly, but I couldn't find you so I'm putting this in your mailbox. I was on the "Peko did it" bandwagon too, but looking at the letter again changes my opinion on everything. If the only people Koizumi invited were the people in the game, in other words, "Tsumiki, Saionji, Mioda, or Kuzuryuu" (Koizumi, Satou and Kuzuryuu 2 are probably all dead), those are the only people who should have known that "what we talked about earlier" was a meeting, unless one of them went off and blabbed to somebody else about it. Saionji feels innocent because of the above quotes (and at the airport, she said she wasn't invited, so she wouldn't know either, though she could've been lying [e: probably was if she was hiding in the closet at the appointed time]). Unless the game goes down the "someone else killed her with Kuzuryuu" route and the trial shifts back to him, he seems unlikely since it's "too obvious" what with the F-suke anger and all. The letter Koizumi was holding and the letter in Koizumi's room don't seem to have the same handwriting, but if we go down this route, Kuzuryuu's accomplice could have written it. If neither of them did it, that leaves Mikan or Ibuki as the only other not-dead people that knew about the meeting, short of someone else being told "yeah, koizumi's talking to everyone who was in the game and we're gonna have a meeting"..? Out of those two, I haven't recalled Ibuki doing anything suspicious, and nothing points to her, but Mikan's "S...She must have caused her to lose consciousness without meaning to, and felt there was no going back... S...Somehow, I...I think I can understand her." and mangoman321's post is setting off alarm bells in my mind. mangoman321 posted:But when I went to look back at it, Mikan had a really odd line that I don't think was ever explained. This is when Hinata and Naegi are chatting with Kuzuryuu outside, and Ibuki and Mikan show up: Mikan's also the one who "found" the letter on the body (off-screen), but if she just pulled it out of her pocket I don't know why it would say "I'm putting this in your mailbox" or "let's try to avoid each other" since that would mean Koizumi never had it in the first place to avoid talking to Saionji about it. I don't really have that much to point to Mikan besides those few circumstantial lines, the Kira mask and the letter (and I hope I'm wrong on the Kira mask + Letter point), but I'm just stuck on that line about the meeting. Did anyone else know about the meetings? Am I missing something? edit: Depending on how strict Kirakira is about justice, D-ko (Koizumi)'s destruction of evidence could be treated as assisting a criminal with a murder? Kind of a flimsy motive, why wouldn't she kill Kuzuryuu for offing E-ko? I also went back to check what people said at the airport since if the killer is one of them, then somebody is lying (or is Kuzuryuu), and saw this: orenronen posted:[Mikan] Nanami-san taught me how to play video games...! She was so kind, so courteous...! And then... and then... she even let me play a match with her...! Uyu... I'm so very very happy I was able to play with a friend... Heh heh heh heh... Thank you kindly, Nanami-san.  "Losing before you know what's happening" is also kinda the gimmick of the game, but would a first time player be able to figure out something like a title-screen cheat code?
maketakunai fucked around with this message at 00:25 on Aug 16, 2013 |
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Aug 15, 2013 23:53
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I won't let you get away this time!!
Waaaaaah! I got too nervous again and said something weird! D...Don't hate me! I'll take any punishment you want to give me!
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Unless we learn otherwise, Mikan and Ibuki alibi each other. I don't think either played the video game or knew it was based on real events. At the moment, we know Saonji didn't do it because she's incapable of changing her clothing without help, and the scene was too bloody for someone not to be covered in it from killing Mahiru. Which also pokes a hole in the idea Mikan or Ibuki could have done it. How would either of them have gotten the blood off? The blood issue would also seem to exonerate Kuryuzuu. Which leaves Peko and Sonia. But really Peko, because SHE WAS WET. The empty water bottles combined with the water not working in the beach house tells the story. The water bottles are what's going to convict Peko.
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Aug 16, 2013 01:00
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LukanFox posted:Since I'm standing by my theory that Saionji stumbled onto the crime scene well after the murder, I think it's a case of her using something generic that may (or may not) have a slight male bent because serial killers tend in general to have a male connotation. Still, I am curious to know if the original Japanese word has a gender association with it. Nah, remember the footprints? Saionji left by the front but came in by the back, which was blocked by Koizumi's body when people went to the beach house; and there wasn't any evidence the body was moved (see again: There was a hell of a lot of blood, so if Saionji had done it she would either be wearing the evidence, or she would be prancing around in her undies which would look even more suspicious. Therefore, if the body had been moved, there would be a hell of a lot of blood in the spot where the body was to begin with). So she had to get into the house before the murder happened. Based on the facts at our disposal I feel like the hypothesis that makes the fewest unfounded assumptions is that someone else knew Saionji and Koizumi would be at the beach house and saw an opportunity. So, it was probably someone who spends a lot of time skulking around the cabins (like Kuzuryuu didn't look suspicious enough), which would give them an opportunity to see Saionji leave the note in the mailbox and go snooping.
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Aug 16, 2013 01:08
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Regarding Mikan, I think she's definitely clear for this current murder, but all the evidence people have been pointing out might implicate her for the past murder in Twilight Syndrome (the second one). Which she wouldn't even remember I guess. If that turns out to be true and comes in the trial somehow, then we have the interesting case of someone who everyone knows can be driven to murder but isn't actually the killer. Yet. I think that's sufficiently distinct from being a serial killer, and I'm disappointed that so many people are trying to connect the two. Also, I'm continuing to think of the motive from the game as a red herring. Unless it was a complete crime of passion, murdering anyone on the island is equivalent to murdering everyone on the island if you plan on getting away with it. So no motive other than "I need to get off this damned island!" or "Argagablarg Nooooo!" makes any sense or could possibly be relevant. People keep mentioning the Second Case from the first game, yet conveniently forget that the culprit there actually blacked out and committed a murder out of pure rage stemming from his personal issues. It wasn't premeditated, even if he had been considering murder to hide his secret.
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Aug 16, 2013 01:16
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I went digging around this chapter for other bits involving Mikan that might be suspicious, and found a couple. First off, when the body was first discovered, she volunteered to be the one to gather the other kids, instead of checking the body immediately:orenronen posted:
Anyone could have done that, while only she has the experience to examine a body. Perhaps she used this time to fabricate the letter to further implicate Saionji? Also, when Nagito asked the kids from the game to gather so they could talk to them, both Ibuki and Mikan mentioned that Koizumi may have wanted to meet with them, but they didn't because of the beach party. Mikan's lines in particular: orenronen posted:
If she had so much to prepare before the beach party, why did she and Ibuki show up half an hour early? When they met up in front of the diner, Ibuki said she showed up early because she was hungry. While Ibuki claims Koizumi never actually asked her to meet up, Mikan says she turned her down because she had a lot to prepare. She couldn't even show up to Koizumi's meeting for five minutes to hear her out, but she had time to get something to eat half an hour before Sonya's party? Seems a bit fishy to me. None of this is damning evidence, but I think an argument could be made to implicate her and Ibuki if the trial shifts focus.
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Aug 16, 2013 01:32
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I...I understand... If everyone's going on with it I'll do my best to help...
Yeah... that announcement didn't say where the body was found, so they must have no clue what's going on.
S...So... please excuse me...
U...Um... This morning, Koizumi-san came by to invite me...
S...She had a serious expression on her face... She said she had something to discuss so she was getting some people together...
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But neither of them had the opportunity to change clothes, so no.
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Aug 16, 2013 01:36
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Souda and Hinata arrived at the diner at 3:00, and Mikan and Ibuki at 3:30. That means, if either of them was the culprit, she'd have to, in half an hour, kill Koizumi, move the body, frame Saionji, wash herself off with water bottles (which can't be a fast process), climb out the bathroom window, find a way to sneak past the boys who had nothing to do but stare at the tunnel leading to the beach house, which would probably involve swimming around the island to avoid the diner, head back to her cabin, dry herself off so thoroughly that her hair doesn't even look damp (if it did, the game would've at least made a comment about it by now), change clothes, meet up with the other person, and head back to the diner . Again, in 30 minutes. Also keep in mind that going to the diner from the supermarket takes around 20 minutes by itself. For comparison, Peko and Sonia could possibly skip most of second half of that (everyone at the diner was distracted talking to each other, and neither needed to head anywhere else beforehand), though the latter would have to still thoroughly dry off, and, since they were late, they would've had an hour+ to do it. Kuzuryuu could also skip most of that, but washing and drying off is especially complicated for him because he wears a suit, and he would still have to do it in half an hour. CandyCrazy fucked around with this message at 02:17 on Aug 16, 2013 |
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Aug 16, 2013 02:01
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Spatula City posted:But neither of them had the opportunity to change clothes, so no.  Clearly, she saw Peko swimming around and dumped out the water bottles to give us yet another red herring.No, but seriously. Dr. Buttass posted:So, it was probably someone who spends a lot of time skulking around the cabins (like Kuzuryuu didn't look suspicious enough), which would give them an opportunity to see Saionji leave the note in the mailbox and go snooping.  Do we have any information on the mailboxes? In the first game, messages were just slid under the locked doors instead of having a mailbox/mail slot..
maketakunai fucked around with this message at 03:05 on Aug 16, 2013 |
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Aug 16, 2013 03:01
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I'm gonna laugh my rear end off if Peko ends up being either a victim or a survivor of the story, because people have blamed her for pretty much everything you possibly can.
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Aug 16, 2013 03:08
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CandyCrazy posted:Souda and Hinata arrived at the diner at 3:00, and Mikan and Ibuki at 3:30. That means, if either of them was the culprit, she'd have to, in half an hour, kill Koizumi, move the body, frame Saionji, wash herself off with water bottles (which can't be a fast process), climb out the bathroom window, find a way to sneak past the boys who had nothing to do but stare at the tunnel leading to the beach house, which would probably involve swimming around the island to avoid the diner, head back to her cabin, dry herself off so thoroughly that her hair doesn't even look damp (if it did, the game would've at least made a comment about it by now), change clothes, meet up with the other person, and head back to the diner . Again, in 30 minutes. Also keep in mind that going to the diner from the supermarket takes around 20 minutes by itself. Honestly, if things keep going the way they are Peko is probably going to end up being the culprit; me trying to find reasons to suspect Mikan is a combination of trying to be thorough and not really liking her character. Since Souda and Hinata were talking to Kuzuryuu at the time Mikan and Ibuki showed up, its possible they didn't notice them coming from the direction of the beachhouse, though that seems unlikely. The rule against changing clothes is the real clincher. You'd have to come up with some way to subvert the rule, such as saying they brought a change of clothes and changed outside the beachhouse (say in the tunnel) without being noticed and while hiding the bloodied clothes, which has no evidence to support it. I'd like to say Mikan and Ibuki being named in the video game would strengthen their motive, but DR consistently pulls motives out of its rear end (Togami's corpse moving, Nagito being nutso, Aoi seeing a fake suicide note), so even discussing motives is altogether pointless. However, accusing Peko also requires us to subvert a rule, as we need to figure out how she got through the window. We need either somehow involve an accomplice, or construct a scenario where she managed to get through a window by herself that even a SHSL gymnast couldn't. There's also the fact that if she went through the trouble of planting evidence against Saionji, shouldn't she also have at least tried to come up with a better alibi? The evidence against her isn't damning by any means, so I think it's safe to assume we're going to get more information during the trial, either from newly introduced evidence, or the culprit slipping up.
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Aug 16, 2013 04:16
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mangoman321 posted:However, accusing Peko also requires us to subvert a rule, as we need to figure out how she got through the window. We need either somehow involve an accomplice, or construct a scenario where she managed to get through a window by herself that even a SHSL gymnast couldn't. There's also the fact that if she went through the trouble of planting evidence against Saionji, shouldn't she also have at least tried to come up with a better alibi? The evidence against her isn't damning by any means, so I think it's safe to assume we're going to get more information during the trial, either from newly introduced evidence, or the culprit slipping up. My guess is still Kuzuryuu, because that a) gives Peko a motivation (she's helping him with revenge) and b) gives her a way out of the window. kidcoelacanth fucked around with this message at 04:37 on Aug 16, 2013 |
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Aug 16, 2013 04:35
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I feel like for meta reasons Peko is most expendable. A lot of the other characters seem to have arcs set up. But Peko doesn't seem to have that much to her. She's visually well-designed, but not really interesting. Also it would be hilarious if Kuryuzuu was suspected of literally every murder, so I'm hoping he's not the killer.
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Aug 16, 2013 04:55
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kidcoelacanth posted:b) gives her a way out of the window. I think I beat the ground pretty flat about this same topic before, but no matter who helped who get out the window, at least one accomplice in the crime is left inside the beach house with the body blocking the door. And the only footprints leading out are Saionji's, and Saionji is way too small to be boosting anyone out a window. Mahiru is blocking the tunnel side door, leaving only the window and beach side door as possible exits. And any way you break it down, for the killer to have left the beach house required an accomplice, unless it was Saionji, since only her footprints were left behind. Any accomplice is trapped by this dilemma as well, unless Sainoji is the accomplice. Mahiru's body is blocking the door so the killer can't have left that way. Saionji could have moved the body a little after the killer left though. In fact, it seems like she's the only person who could have, unless we doubt Akane's judgment that getting out the window alone was impossible.
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Aug 16, 2013 05:24
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Spatula City posted:I feel like for meta reasons Peko is most expendable. A lot of the other characters seem to have arcs set up. But Peko doesn't seem to have that much to her. She's visually well-designed, but not really interesting. Also it would be hilarious if Kuryuzuu was suspected of literally every murder, so I'm hoping he's not the killer. Hagakure is just the ultimate argument against anything about "oh but this character seems important" or "but this one has an arc" because Hagakure had no character arc, did nothing important the entire game of DR1 except almost get framed for murder and even then not in a very active way. Any character could be another Hagakure. Also, Koizumi really seemed like she was going to be a major character through the whole game with arcs and important dynamics but then she got killed. Also right from the start, the makers of DR1 like to mess with people who are trying to do meta-analysis like how your "assistant girlfriend" is killed and revealed to have been trying to frame you for a murder when it happened.
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Aug 16, 2013 05:42
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Why do people still keep bringing up an accomplice? If she had an accomplice, they would have outed her by now, unless that accomplice was Komaeda.
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Aug 16, 2013 05:52
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I know Nagito claims to have been untied by Monomi and not until after the crime happened, but isn't it possible that he is lying and he helped the suspect get out of the beach house? I can't figure out how else the murderer escaped, to be honest, since none of the other characters seem likely to be badgered into helping with a murder. I suppose Mikan could've been bullied into it, but there's no way to place her at the beach house at that time. It really is looking like Peko is the murderer, though, which makes me terribly sad. She seems pretty cool, untimely shits aside.
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Aug 16, 2013 05:52
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kidcoelacanth posted:My guess is still Kuzuryuu, because that a) gives Peko a motivation (she's helping him with revenge) and b) gives her a way out of the window. If she were helping Kuzuryuu the why the hell would she try to frame Saionji which would get Kuzuryuu killed? Why would Kuzuryuu go with a plan for revenge that gives him no chance of survival?
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Aug 16, 2013 06:26
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Yeah, I know using meta logic can be self-defeating, especially with this game. And dying can serve to close off a character's arc (like Chihiro, Ishimaru, and Sakura in the first game, and Togami for certain in this one). So I could be totally wrong. The only characters that seem bulletproof are Nagito and Chiaki (though I expect at least one of Owari, Nidai, and Ibuki to survive to the end as the resident village idiot). Evidence is a better indicator anyway, and nobody's found a non-Peko theory that explains the water bottles as far as I know.
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Aug 16, 2013 06:42
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Actually thinking about, shouldn't Peko showing up wet actually exclude her being the one to use the water bottles to wash herself off? If she used the water bottles to wash herself off, put the bottles in the bin, then head back to the shower room and somehow impossibly go out the window all on her own, wouldn't there be a wet trail leading to and from the bin and the shower room? Excluding any accomplice that would gain nothing helping her with the murder, it pretty much be impossible for her to do it all on her own without leaving an obvious trail.
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Aug 16, 2013 07:43
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Who What Now posted:If she were helping Kuzuryuu the why the hell would she try to frame Saionji which would get Kuzuryuu killed? Assuming Peko's the culprit and Kuzuryuu's the accomplice (meaning Kuzuryuu dies no matter who she fingers), look at these posts to see some possible reasons given previously: EDIT: Gutted these quotes to make this post slightly less massive. Please click the links if you want to see the actual posts. ---- quote:Why would Kuzuryuu go with a plan for revenge that gives him no chance of survival? ---- symptom posted:Actually thinking about, shouldn't Peko showing up wet actually exclude her being the one to use the water bottles to wash herself off? If she used the water bottles to wash herself off, put the bottles in the bin, then head back to the shower room and somehow impossibly go out the window all on her own, wouldn't there be a wet trail leading to and from the bin and the shower room? Excluding any accomplice that would gain nothing helping her with the murder, it pretty much be impossible for her to do it all on her own without leaving an obvious trail. CandyCrazy fucked around with this message at 08:20 on Aug 16, 2013 |
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Aug 16, 2013 07:54
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CandyCrazy posted:
I'm not saying the bottles weren't used to wash off blood, it's pretty much the only way with the shower broken, I'm more just saying that it would be easier to dry off then dispose of bottles and not leave a possible trail, and Peko is the only one to show up at the diner wet. And regarding Kuzuryuu, he seems more the type to take matters into his own hands then rely on someone else. As for why Peko is now trying to finger Saionji, it's probably where her investigation lead her. In DR1, Kirigiri was about the only helpful person because of her personality and talent. In this game, there is no detective to help point out the obvious clues to everyone. Everyone else is doing there own investigation this time, and I kinda like that about this game. Everyone else isn't there just to make stupid statements to debunk, other people have to step up and help.
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Aug 16, 2013 08:29
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CandyCrazy posted:
If his aim was to kill off everybody else, then he would just claim that he was the murderer and that he did it to take revenge on Koizumi from the start. That would get everyone killed and not leave much chance of a co-conspirator eventually being discovered, but he's defended himself during the trial. If that's his way of thinking then his actions don't really make much sense.
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Aug 16, 2013 11:09
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Knicknevin posted:I think I beat the ground pretty flat about this same topic before, but no matter who helped who get out the window, at least one accomplice in the crime is left inside the beach house with the body blocking the door. And the only footprints leading out are Saionji's, and Saionji is way too small to be boosting anyone out a window. I am not sure if it is just me, but this second update of the trial gave me the impression that everyone is looking at the window backwards. People are trying to find ways for the window to be an exit, but I am getting the impression that the window was not the exit, but how the killer entered the beach house. Same thing with the water bottles; the current assumption is that the water bottles were used to wash off blood, but that in and of itself is a pretty big assumption. E-Ko wasn't bloody at all after killing Kuzuryuu's sister with an improvised flail, in DR1 Celes wasn't bloody after braining Yamada with a big hammer, and neither was Oowada after staving in Fujisaki's head with a dumbbell, so despite real-world blood pattern analysis stating otherwise the killer didn't necessarily get any blood on them from smacking Koizumi in the head with a bat because this is a video game and it does what it pleases. The water bottles could have been used to cover tracks, imply that someone was waiting in the beach house for some time, lubricate an object, or a number of other things I can't come up with because it's past 3:00 am in my timezone. A few other details that have been failed to mention thus far: In addition to the two doors and the bathroom window, there is another window in the main room next to the beach-side door. There is blood smeared on the doorknob of the tunnel-side door that is nowhere near any of the other blood splatters by Koizumi's body. It is very easy to cover your own tracks in loose sediment like sand.
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Aug 16, 2013 11:27
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...except there's no reason for the killer to enter using the window since they could just as easily have used the door. Which wasn't blocked before the murder happened.
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Aug 16, 2013 11:39
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Clarste posted:...except there's no reason for the killer to enter using the window since they could just as easily have used the door. Which wasn't blocked before the murder happened. ...except for when you want to get the drop on someone by attacking from a direction they are not expecting, because walking in through the front door with a baseball bat and/or a mask on is going to make someone immediately suspicious about what you are doing? Especially when everyone knows that in order to get off the island you have to kill someone? There's no signs of a struggle, which indicates the killer surprised and dropped them before they got a chance to react meaningfully.
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Aug 16, 2013 11:48
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Facetious Jim posted:...except for when you want to get the drop on someone by attacking from a direction they are not expecting, because walking in through the front door with a baseball bat and/or a mask on is going to make someone immediately suspicious about what you are doing? Especially when everyone knows that in order to get off the island you have to kill someone? I would think a loud thud from the shower room is pretty suspicious too, but the main point is that we don't need an explanation for how the killer got the jump on them. That's not relevant and never has been. That solves nothing and isn't interesting at all. Also since you're nullifying the footprint evidence by saying "you can hide footprints" then the basic premise of a locked room mystery is lost entirely. I think you're missing the point in a lot of ways. Also there's no evidence that anyone actually went through the window at any point so I'm not sure where you're getting any of this from.
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Aug 16, 2013 11:52
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maketakunai posted:Would Monobear allow someone to go through someone else's mail like that? If so, that's a perfectly good explanation and would punch a hole in that "only someone who was invited to the meetings could have known about them" thought. If not... I can't get over that hurdle to move back to the Peko-as-the-culprit theory Monobear doesn't make new rules apply retroactively, so everything except the initial set of rules is fair game at least once, and he loves to brag about making new rules, so he hasn't decided snooping around other peoples' mail would ruin his fun just yet. Pattern recognition!
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Aug 16, 2013 12:24
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Hazdoc posted:Why do people still keep bringing up an accomplice? If she had an accomplice, they would have outed her by now, unless that accomplice was Komaeda.
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Aug 16, 2013 12:32
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Irony Be My Shield posted:They could have threatened Saionji into helping them while wearing the mask. This is sortof important since the game hammered the point that you need two people to escape the bathroom window, and that's probably the route the culprit would need to take to leave the beach house without being noticed. This would make sense if they also convinced her that she's at risk of execution for the murder, which would also explain her lying.
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Aug 16, 2013 13:36
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Irony Be My Shield posted:They could have threatened Saionji into helping them while wearing the mask. This is sortof important since the game hammered the point that you need two people to escape the bathroom window, and that's probably the route the culprit would need to take to leave the beach house without being noticed. But it's Saionji. How could she ever help someone escape via window? She's absolutely tiny and likely not all that strong. The best person she could help would be Kuzuryu and even then, you have two smaller people trying to reach a window, something tells me their height wouldn't add up.
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Aug 16, 2013 14:01
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Knicknevin posted:I think I beat the ground pretty flat about this same topic before, but no matter who helped who get out the window, at least one accomplice in the crime is left inside the beach house with the body blocking the door. And the only footprints leading out are Saionji's, and Saionji is way too small to be boosting anyone out a window. There is actually a plausible way for the accomplice to have gotten out as well: the killer could have grabbed their arm and pulled them up through the window. That seems like the most likely explanation.
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Aug 16, 2013 14:05
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I've been trying to figure out how the 'body discoverers' left in order to find evidence, albeit circumstantial, for or against the existence of an accomplice, who would be part of the 'reaching the window' trick. The big problem is that we can't tell for certain how many people used the front door (which was blocked from 3:00 onwards) since there's no footprints leading to it or how many sets of footprints lead in to the back door, only that Saionji's are the only ones leading out of the back door. We know that Saionji left the beach-house at 3:30, but we don't have confirmation as to whether she arrived before or after the murder. I'm only assuming that she arrived after the murder so that I can make sense of the gummi in the locker room being a different colour from the ones in her room being a deliberate red herring to make it look like she was at the crime scene for longer than she was. I don't see any reason for the existence of either of these pieces of evidence otherwise. I'm beginning to wonder about Kuzuryuu's involvement as the other witness too. Considering that we encountered him shortly after 3:00-ish (about half an hour after we met up with Souda at 2:30) and that Souda mentioned he was a bit panicked, if there is an accomplice it has to be him. That, and we don't have a more likely pick. (How Souda and Hinata managed to miss the culprit leaving is beyond me, but I digress.) If Kuzuryuu simply discovered the body, then why didn't he leave his footprints behind too? Of course, there's also the possibility that someone else actually discovered the body (the game hasn't explicitly placed him at the scene yet), but that still leaves us with the same problem and Kuzuryuu is the best fit for the role. The only resolution that I can see behind how the second (well, actually first chronologically speaking) witness managed to leave the bath-house with leaving foot-prints behind is if the culprit was able to turn around at the top of the window, somehow stabilize themselves at the gap and pull the accomplice (who still counts as a witness) up to the window with them. Since I can't tell whether there was a ledge on the other side of the window or not, this is entirely conjecture; only that's it the only sensible explanation I can think of for why Saionji's footprints are the only ones leaving the beach-house if Souda is the third discoverer of the body. Unless the culprit counts towards the discoverers this time round and Monobear neglected to tell us so, but that doesn't sound like Monobear's style to me. (Darn, beaten while I was rewriting this post for the sixth time.) I'm still leaning toward Peko being the culprit because of the water bottles and her prior knowledge of the mask aspect of KiraKira. Granted, both of these could also be directed towards Sonia, but it fits Peko's appearance and behaviour better than Sonia's.
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Aug 16, 2013 14:11
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VanSandman posted:This would make sense if they also convinced her that she's at risk of execution for the murder, which would also explain her lying. Its doubtful that somebody could be fooled into thinking that, but you never know. I've been thinking, perhaps we have this backwards. What if Koizumi ambushed somebody at the beach house, and attempted to kill them with the bat? They could have turned the tables on her and killed her. It would have to be somebody who played or was involved in the game, though, probably Kuzuryuu. She could have learned that he killed E-Ko, and wanted to extract revenge on Kuzuryuu, so asked him to come to the beach house, before attacking him with the metal bat, while wearing the KiraKira mask (maybe). Kuzuryuu somehow turns the tables on her, takes the bat, and kills her with it, then sets up her body just like in the game (for whatever reason, he at least has the knowhow), before leaving. The reason Saionji is hesitant to tell the truth is because she might have known about it or come to that conclusion but doesn't want to call her friend an attempted murderer. The note on Koizumi could possibly have been something she prepared in advance, to place on her intended victim, and frame it all on Saionji. ...I like this theory, but it ignores the window, the water bottles, and doesn't seem to be what actually happened, but its a theory nonetheless. Its a least a theory that doesn't immediately condemn Peko.
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Aug 16, 2013 14:14
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VanSandman posted:This would make sense if they also convinced her that she's at risk of execution for the murder, which would also explain her lying. Ramos posted:But it's Saionji. How could she ever help someone escape via window? She's absolutely tiny and likely not all that strong. The best person she could help would be Kuzuryu and even then, you have two smaller people trying to reach a window, something tells me their height wouldn't add up. orenronen posted:
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Aug 16, 2013 15:03
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Well, anyone can reach it if they cooperate with someone else, like we did right now!
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Hazdoc posted:Its doubtful that somebody could be fooled into thinking that, but you never know. This theory kind of sounds like DR1's first murder, so I'm not sure how valid this idea will turn out to be. At any rate, I'm still not sure what to make of the mask. I'm pretty sure they won't try to pull of the "lovable murderer" archetype again, if only because SDR2 seems to be going out of its way to mess with the expectations it left players of DR1 with.
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Aug 16, 2013 15:35
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maketakunai posted:Extreme happiness over playing video games to "no I don't want to play them I'm terrible"? Maybe they could. When Hinata was impressed by her working out the code, Nanami said "Being a gamer has nothing to do with it. It's just... you either figure out the hidden message or you don’t". That could be read as Nanami simply over-estimating the abilities of a non-gamer, but I took it to mean that it's entirely possible for a person who isn't an experienced gamer to guess the code.
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Aug 16, 2013 16:31
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