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The city already has to print ballots for the Public Advocate runoff, so there's really no downside for Thompson staying in the race if BdB's vote total falls below 40%.
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Sep 11, 2013 22:32
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Adar posted:I'm skeptical there will even be a runoff - absentees might trend conservative but they also don't trend black - and no, not really. Right, but the issue here for a runoff isn't the BdB/Thompson margin as a heads up, it's BdB vs. the field, and on the conservative trend note I wouldn't be surprised at all if Quinn is the candidate gets the most boost in absentees, which wouldn't help Thompson on an absolute basis but could pull BdB's percentage below 40 percent. And there are also apparently a lot of uncounted votes that aren't absentees because well it's NYC and they can't run elections.
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Sep 11, 2013 22:40
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serewit posted:In fairness, gently caress the Yankees. Red Sox are infinitely worse than the Yankees.
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Sep 11, 2013 22:46
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The Warszawa posted:2) Thompson believes that something will happen in the next three weeks to render De Blasio toxic or damaged as a candidate. For what it's worth, de Blasio has a reputation for trying to gently caress any and all female staff in Democratic campaigns, government, or political consulting, and he's made his whole campaign about his family. oh good Welp here's to whoever the deputy mayor is. jeffersonlives posted:Right, but the issue here for a runoff isn't the BdB/Thompson margin as a heads up, it's BdB vs. the field, and on the conservative trend note I wouldn't be surprised at all if Quinn is the candidate gets the most boost in absentees, which wouldn't help Thompson on an absolute basis but could pull BdB's percentage below 40 percent. And there are also apparently a lot of uncounted votes that aren't absentees because well it's NYC and they can't run elections. I would normally be with you here but I honestly cannot fathom a world in which somebody orders an absentee ballot, waits for it to arrive, carefully fills it out, then walks it back to the mailbox in order to vote for Quinn.
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Sep 11, 2013 22:48
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Adar posted:I would normally be with you here but I honestly cannot fathom a world in which somebody orders an absentee ballot, waits for it to arrive, carefully fills it out, then walks it back to the mailbox in order to vote for Quinn. Rich person who actually wants Bloomberg's third term. Quinn did carry portions of the UES!
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Sep 11, 2013 22:50
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jeffersonlives posted:Rich person who actually wants Bloomberg's third term. Quinn did carry portions of the UES! I see what you did there!
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Sep 11, 2013 22:54
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The Warszawa posted:I see what you did there! Right, I mean, handing Bloomy a third term was largely why she tanked here, but there were actually people who still think that was an unambiguously good thing.
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Sep 11, 2013 23:39
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The Warszawa posted:3) Thompson genuinely doesn't like Bill de Blasio and thinks his whole "I have a black wife, I'm the only one who really gets racism" is the most stupid-rear end, NYU white boy thing to ever be uttered in NYC politics. Given that the Thomspon campaign staff, in public statements, has been cooler on staying in than the candidate himself, I honestly would say this is most likely explanation.
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Sep 12, 2013 00:58
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serewit posted:In fairness, gently caress the Yankees. There's always the Mets 
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Sep 12, 2013 01:22
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Elotana posted:Has BdB actually said the "I'm the only one who gets racism" part of the statement or is it all veiled subtext? I mean, it's not quite so brazen but "I'm the only one who will end a stop-and-frisk era that unfairly targets minorities.” is pretty clear, especially when his whole stop-and-frisk narrative is centered around understanding because of his multiracial family. Adar posted:oh good Public Advocate is next in line, actually. The Warszawa fucked around with this message at 07:22 on Sep 12, 2013 |
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Sep 12, 2013 05:54
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nachos posted:He may have an outside shot since BdB is a "destructive" radical left-winger and that apparently scares all of the SilentD establishment types This is what I'm worried about, if the Silent D types are gonna give this to the Republicans. Which if a Prigresdive Left candidate can't win in New York City, we're well and truly hosed. I'm not sure of how much of BdB's economic policy"is pie in the sky dreaming," he's a Democrat I just out of hand assumed he gonna follow normal Democrat economic policy. I was drawn to him based on his stop and frisk policy, which really Ray Kelly needs to go. O, Speaking of which, he was on New York one the other day complaining about some book that's suppose to shed some light on the NYPD and their counter terrorism stuff, has any one read it or planning on to? I can't recall it's name right now and I'm posting from my mobile.
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Sep 12, 2013 16:23
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Lee Harvey Oswald posted:Red Sox are infinitely worse than the Yankees. Not in the AL East standings they're not 
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Sep 12, 2013 17:19
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KomradeX posted:This is what I'm worried about, if the Silent D types are gonna give this to the Republicans. Which if a Prigresdive Left candidate can't win in New York City, we're well and truly hosed. He has made noise about doing terrible things like making some rich people pay more taxes. This is what is scaring the SilentD types, as they don't really give a poo poo about stop and frisk nearly as much as they do about  MY TAX DOLLARS
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Sep 12, 2013 17:28
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Nuclearmonkee posted:He has made noise about doing terrible things like making some rich people pay more taxes. This is what is scaring the SilentD types, as they don't really give a poo poo about stop and frisk nearly as much as they do about "Paying taxes? I guess this is the time in life when you young people start becoming Republicans  "
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Sep 12, 2013 17:44
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KomradeX posted:This is what I'm worried about, if the Silent D types are gonna give this to the Republicans. BdB is winning the election. That he apparently cheats on his wife all the time just means the circus will be back a couple of years from now, that's all. (Unless they have an open marriage? idk or care)
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Sep 12, 2013 18:17
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Adar posted:BdB is winning the election. That he apparently cheats on his wife all the time just means the circus will be back a couple of years from now, that's all. (Unless they have an open marriage? idk or care) You know the sad thing is that I don't actually think he fucks around, he just brazenly tries to pick up staffers at political events. It's kind of embarrassing (I also don't think it will matter).
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Sep 12, 2013 18:21
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The Warszawa posted:You know the sad thing is that I don't actually think he fucks around, he just brazenly tries to pick up staffers at political events. It's kind of embarrassing (I also don't think it will matter). Do you have any evidence to back this assertion that doesn't amount to hearsay? As far as Bill Thompson goes, he's lost and everybody seems to realize this save for Bill Thompson and his closest cabal. The unions (save the teachers) are lining up behind De Blasio. Thompson's own campaign staff is saying he should concede and it seems to be only Thompson's ego of being another entitled millionaire who has essentially been running for mayor for 8 years but denied HIS win that is keeping this thing going. The electoral math that gets Thompson a runoff is extremely tenuous at best and the math that has him actually winning that runoff is a virtual impossibility. Thompson seems determined to bleed the Democratic party running up to the general due to his own personal vanity. He ran a very muted and tone-deaf campaign as the most conservative Democrat in the primary and ignored the surging progressive movement in NYC's Democratic party. As far as De Blasio vs. Lhota in the general goes; it should certainly be an entertaining race and it has the chance to spotlight income inequality issues. Certainly, there is always the chance of an upset but those who think Lhota has a shot seem to be dramatically misreading the political climate in NYC and the ways in which the electorate has changed over the past 12 years. Bloomberg rode to power on a solid white voter base (that has been diminished) and a huge pile of cash from his personal fortune. All of this and he only barely got a third term and had to quit the Republican party to do so. De Blasio is going to have to do little else besides remind people that, yes, Lhota is the Republican candidate and, no, he won't end stop and frisk.
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Sep 13, 2013 03:37
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KomradeX posted:This is what I'm worried about, if the Silent D types are gonna give this to the Republicans. Which if a Prigresdive Left candidate can't win in New York City, we're well and truly hosed. Lawfare had a post on this book the other day: Enemies Within.
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Sep 13, 2013 05:18
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Hamsack posted:Do you have any evidence to back this assertion that doesn't amount to hearsay? Yeah man I have sworn affidavits, transcripts of hearings, and a copy of his book Man, I'm Really Bad At Cheating on My Wife, But It Doesn't Stop Me From Trying. I was pretty up front about it being rumor and hearsay, though I trust the people I've heard it from. Whether it's true or not, the rumors exist and may be playing a role in Thompson's desire to hold out for the full count - it's certainly as probable (if not moreso) than your "entitlement" theory. Also describing Thompson as "the most conservative Democrat in the primary" when Christine Quinn was in the race is incredibly stupid, almost as stupid as believing Cuomo-protege Bill de Blasio is a progressive insurgent. I definitely think Thompson staying in is less about winning than it is tweaking de Blasio, and I can't say I blame Thompson for it. The Warszawa fucked around with this message at 11:08 on Sep 13, 2013 |
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Sep 13, 2013 09:25
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Atmus posted:What do you base this on? Every single poll taken on them? You can't honestly fail to understand that the most basic, common-sense gun regulations like universal background checks and magazine size restrictions are overwhelmingly popular? The reason the recalls succeeded is the difference in intensity. The vast majority of the electorate may support these kind of no-brainer reforms, but gun violence probably isn't their number one issue. There's a small but zealous minority of pathological gun nuts who will drag themselves over broken glass to get to the polls anytime anything gun-related is up for a vote. Gun-violence is their number one issue, it's just that they tend to be on the pro side(or at least the enabling one). It's also an issue of visibility, the people who call up their local congressional office and scream at the interns about black helicopters and how they need their guns to shoot anybody who wants to take their guns may be in absolute terms a tiny fraction of the electorate, but they're going to have a salience in the minds of policymakers that's outsized as a result.
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Sep 13, 2013 10:04
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Hamsack posted:De Blasio is going to have to do little else besides remind people that, yes, Lhota is the Republican candidate and, no, he won't end stop and frisk. Kills kittens. Ran the MTA. Badly. Nobody likes the MTA bosses.
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Sep 13, 2013 12:24
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The Insect Court posted:Every single poll taken on them? You can't honestly fail to understand that the most basic, common-sense gun regulations like universal background checks and magazine size restrictions are overwhelmingly popular? Sound theories mang.
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Sep 13, 2013 14:12
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Kalman posted:Lawfare had a post on this book the other day: Enemies Within. Hmm that was interesting. I've been on the fence about the book, and I will admit that I didn't know about the NSA domestic spying program stopping that attack.
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Sep 13, 2013 16:31
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The Insect Court posted:Every single poll taken on them? You can't honestly fail to understand that the most basic, common-sense gun regulations like universal background checks and magazine size restrictions are overwhelmingly popular?
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Sep 13, 2013 16:47
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The Insect Court posted:Every single poll taken on them? You can't honestly fail to understand that the most basic, common-sense gun regulations like universal background checks and magazine size restrictions are overwhelmingly popular? Angela Giron wasn't prepared to attribute it to intensity. She thinks her own constituents were too dumb and confused to oppose her recall. It didn't have anything to do with Coloradans resenting meddler-rear end Michael Bloomberg, either. Nope, just that her own constituents are ignorant.
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Sep 13, 2013 17:01
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The Warszawa posted:Also describing Thompson as "the most conservative Democrat in the primary" when Christine Quinn was in the race is incredibly stupid, almost as stupid as believing Cuomo-protege Bill de Blasio is a progressive insurgent. Or it is a description that is based on actually paying attention to the details. Quinn may have given Bloomberg a third term but in many ways it was Thompson as comptroller that was far more enabling and tied to Bloomberg's agenda - Bloomberg and Thompson: The (Really) Odd Couple . In addition to this there was his lukewarm stance on stop & frisk - which was unpalatable enough that his longtime personal friend Al Sharpton couldn't stomach endorsing him, his transportation plans which amounted to "Buy a Car or go gently caress Yourself", his pandering to the teacher's union while still being very much invested (politically and personally) in charter schools and his gleeful acceptance of support from state Republican powerbroker Alfonse D'Amato. Certainly Thompson and Quinn were both the most conservative Democrats in the race but despite Thompson's attempts paint himself as different than Quinn; he was at best identical in policy and record and in many ways worse. And I never stated that Bill de Blasio was a progressive insurgent rather that his campaign was the one (well aside from the doomed from the start voyages of Weiner and Liu) that correctly read the increase in the progressive nature of NYC's Democrat base. Both Quinn and Thompson completely misread the political climate in the city from the start and were completely unprepared for a Democratic electorate that was vehemently opposed to their Bloomberg-lite agendas.
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Sep 13, 2013 17:33
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Hamsack posted:Or it is a description that is based on actually paying attention to the details. Quinn may have given Bloomberg a third term but in many ways it was Thompson as comptroller that was far more enabling and tied to Bloomberg's agenda - Bloomberg and Thompson: The (Really) Odd Couple . In addition to this there was his lukewarm stance on stop & frisk - which was unpalatable enough that his longtime personal friend Al Sharpton couldn't stomach endorsing him, You say that as if it was a bad thing.
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Sep 13, 2013 17:44
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gfanikf posted:You say that as if it was a bad thing. Why wouldn't it be? Hamsack posted:Or it is a description that is based on actually paying attention to the details. Quinn may have given Bloomberg a third term but in many ways it was Thompson as comptroller that was far more enabling and tied to Bloomberg's agenda - Bloomberg and Thompson: The (Really) Odd Couple . In addition to this there was his lukewarm stance on stop & frisk - which was unpalatable enough that his longtime personal friend Al Sharpton couldn't stomach endorsing him, his transportation plans which amounted to "Buy a Car or go gently caress Yourself", his pandering to the teacher's union while still being very much invested (politically and personally) in charter schools and his gleeful acceptance of support from state Republican powerbroker Alfonse D'Amato. Certainly Thompson and Quinn were both the most conservative Democrats in the race but despite Thompson's attempts paint himself as different than Quinn; he was at best identical in policy and record and in many ways worse. I didn't see much in the way of meaningful substantive difference between de Blasio's and Thompson's stances on Stop and Frisk (though I would also say that those two candidates faced decidedly different pressures in front of the electorate re: how to present themselves on the issue, especially with regard to fervor). Describing Thompson as further right than Christine "Actually Wants To Keep Ray Kelly and Stop-and-Frisk" Quinn doesn't actually signal "paying attention to the details," though. I get that you're a big BdB fan and that's fine, I like him too (though I think he has the usual problems of his kind of pol) though I worry we're going to end up with a shitshow. Probably more important, he's probably going to be the next mayor and he's probably the best one possible to come out of the white prog set, but I'd bet all the money in my pocket against all the money in your pocket that we're going to be back here in three years bemoaning how BdB hasn't accomplished gently caress-all (or, more likely, that he's further to the right than people expect, or that once again communities of color are left holding our collective dicks waiting for Hizzoner to give a gently caress). The Warszawa fucked around with this message at 18:01 on Sep 13, 2013 |
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Sep 13, 2013 17:53
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The Warszawa posted:Why wouldn't it be?
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Sep 13, 2013 17:56
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gfanikf posted:Because it's Al Sharpton. Please elaborate.
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Sep 13, 2013 17:56
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e: never mind, the 2014 Midterms thread is not the gun control thread
pig slut lisa fucked around with this message at 18:01 on Sep 13, 2013 |
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Sep 13, 2013 17:59
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Nice Davis posted:I bet they'd be a little more effective than relying on our patriotic concealed carry warriors. They certainly didn't stop any recent mass shootings. Neither are effective. What would be effective is unpalatable to our gun crazy society. These half measures don't really help and accomplish little more than energizing the opposition and helping them GOTV.
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Sep 13, 2013 18:01
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Nice Davis posted:I bet they'd be a little more effective than relying on our patriotic concealed carry warriors. They certainly didn't stop any recent mass shootings. So you don't have any evidence to demonstrate the recommended restrictions being of benefit, yet still support restrictions? Nuclearmonkee posted:Neither are effective. What would be effective is unpalatable to our gun crazy society. These half measures don't really help and accomplish little more than energizing the opposition and giving the crazies more reason to go vote. Suggesting the "effective" measure sure wouldn't be a smart idea either.
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Sep 13, 2013 18:01
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gfanikf posted:Suggesting the "effective" measure sure wouldn't be a smart idea either. Never said they would be. The public at large doesn't support tough gun restrictions and proposing them is electoral suicide. The best we could probably do is propose bills to increase funding for our mental health systems. They too would naturally not pass as the country as a whole has been busily dismantling our mental health system for decades.
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Sep 13, 2013 18:06
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Nuclearmonkee posted:Neither are effective. What would be effective is unpalatable to our gun crazy society. These half measures don't really help and accomplish little more than energizing the opposition and helping them GOTV. Effective measures against violent crime would have gotten these CO reps recalled just as quickly, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't keep pushing for universal healthcare and an end to the War on Drugs. Wait, we're talking about guns instead, my bad. That's always a great use of everybody's time.
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Sep 13, 2013 19:04
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gfanikf posted:Because it's Al Sharpton. Hey gfanikf, do you mind clarifying this?
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Sep 13, 2013 19:08
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Meanwhile in WV, as a sign of Dems definitively not conceding that particular senate seat they've finally recruited SoS Natalie Tennant to run against Shelley Moore Capito.
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Sep 13, 2013 19:12
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gfanikf posted:I dunno Pro recall groups survived a 7:1 outspending effort, which was heavily funded by outsiders. Hey that's a really cool fact, maybe you'd like to repeat a few dozen more times? It makes you look like you've really thought a lot about the point you'd like to make.
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Sep 13, 2013 19:25
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Brigadier Sockface posted:Meanwhile in WV, as a sign of Dems definitively not conceding that particular senate seat they've finally recruited SoS Natalie Tennant to run against Shelley Moore Capito. Finally. As a WV goon, it pained me to think we were going to surrender Rockefeller's seat without putting up a fight.
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Sep 13, 2013 19:29
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The Warszawa posted:and a copy of his book Man, I'm Really Bad At Cheating on My Wife, But It Doesn't Stop Me From Trying. I'd buy this book.
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Sep 13, 2013 19:38
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