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China has some pretty bold maritime/godforsaken rock claims, but I think Taiwan is the only big populated flashpoint. They also have some kind of dispute with India but I don't know anything about that.
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Mar 21, 2014 18:26
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Freezer posted:Taiwan declaring independence or the North Korean regime collapsing have the potential to be be several orders of magnitude above what we've seen in eastern Europe in my opinion. Let's hope I'm wrong. Taiwan declaring independence will do nothing but stir up rhetoric. China isn't planning on taking Taiwan by force any time soon and the two of them have some pretty strong economic ties these days. North Korea regime collapsing... well that all depends on how it collapses. However, that one is going to be a cluster gently caress no matter what China decides to do.
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Mar 21, 2014 18:32
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Freezer posted:Taiwan declaring independence or the North Korean regime collapsing have the potential to be be several orders of magnitude above what we've seen in eastern Europe in my opinion. Let's hope I'm wrong. Taiwan declaring independence would be a mess, but I'm pretty sure the US has made it clear it won't protect them if they do that? As for North Korea collapsing, oddly enough I think that would be an economic and humanitarian catastrophe, but not a political one. China informed the US they're fine with Korea reuniting as long as the US doesn't station troops on its border. China does not like North Korea, but would rather prop them up than deal with the hundreds of thousands of refugees from a collapse.
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Mar 21, 2014 18:34
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Adventure Pigeon posted:Taiwan declaring independence would be a mess, but I'm pretty sure the US has made it clear it won't protect them if they do that? Pretty sure we've made it clear to the PRC that we'd step in if China invaded Taiwan.
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Mar 21, 2014 18:39
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Now poo poo is starting to get serious:quote:“In light of Russia's military occupation of sovereign Ukraine, we respectfully ask that you urgently convene an emergency session of FIFA to consider suspending Russia's membership in FIFA, stripping Russia of the right to host the 2018 World Cup, and denying the Russian national team the right to participate in the upcoming 2014 World Cup in Brazil.” http://www.cbssports.com/general/eye-on-sports/24481105/us-senators-to-fifa-kick-russia-out-of-2014-world-cup
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Mar 21, 2014 18:40
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Majorian posted:Definitely agree with you on this. I never really saw economics taking primacy over politics anyway - "geopolitics" was only lying dormant, waiting just beneath the surface. Right, history is different too. China doesn't have a ring of buffer states it used to lay claim too that it views as "naturally" theirs, it's not like they look south and see Vietnam as Russia sees Ukraine (if anything, the Taiwan/PRC relationship is more comparable but very different). I've been wondering if it is maybe reflective of the difference between a resource extraction based economy and a more trade orientated export economy. Russia can bully it's surrounding interests because it can turn off the gas, but China disrupting trade with any of its neighbors for the sake of land grabs would likely be a lot more immediately damaging economically. Also the Princelings seem to care more about capitalism than the Russian oligarchs. Edit: also unless something changed Russia and China still hate each other and like during the Cold War this will continue to be advantageous to the West Berke Negri fucked around with this message at 18:43 on Mar 21, 2014 |
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Mar 21, 2014 18:41
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Elias_Maluco posted:Now poo poo is starting to get serious: Berezovsky is smiling from beyond the grave.
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Mar 21, 2014 18:44
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Surely FIFA is the international institution over which US senators have the least amount of power. "You should kick Russia out of the championships of your gay European sport."
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Mar 21, 2014 18:49
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It amazes me that Putin hasn't bought Sepp Blatter yet.
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Mar 21, 2014 18:51
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rscott posted:It amazes me that Putin hasn't bought Sepp Blatter yet. Probably just did.
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Mar 21, 2014 18:53
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As a US citizen I don't see what is the difference between Crimea and Kosovo. Also, if they want to be part of Russia why the gently caress our government cares. They elected to be with Russia...if the elections were the true will of the Crimea people let democracy rule.
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Mar 21, 2014 18:57
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The Risk posted:As a US citizen I don't see what is the difference between Crimea and Kosovo. You don't get 97% legitimate votes for anything, much less on referendums to secede. Nuclearmonkee fucked around with this message at 19:12 on Mar 21, 2014 |
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Mar 21, 2014 19:01
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I'm starting to really dread any posts prefaced with 'As an American I'
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Mar 21, 2014 19:03
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The Risk posted:As a US citizen I don't see what is the difference between Crimea and Kosovo. 18+ Just like the south eh?
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Mar 21, 2014 19:03
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The Risk posted:As a US citizen I don't see what is the difference between Crimea and Kosovo. NATO did not invade Kosovo, then schedule the referendum and then win it with 97% of the vote. This is kind of a largish difference. Also, Kosovo wasn't annexed by NATO. There was also something about a decade of genocide, but I forget the details.
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Mar 21, 2014 19:04
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maev posted:I'm starting to really dread any posts prefaced with 'As an American I' As an American, I am as well.
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Mar 21, 2014 19:06
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TK-42-1 posted:As an American, I am as well. Pretty much universally I fear. Also, why aren't you at your post?
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Mar 21, 2014 19:08
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Nuclearmonkee posted:You don't get 97% legitimate votes for anything, much less referendums to secede. How can you prove this...I am not saying that it is not possible that Russians hosed with the elections. What if they did not and it was the true will of the voters. You are telling me that if that was the case Democracy does not count because it was not recognized by the US or other countries...
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Mar 21, 2014 19:09
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The Risk posted:How can you prove this...I am not saying that it is not possible that Russians did not gently caress with the elections. What if they did not and it was the true will of the voters. You are telling me that of that was the case Democracy does not count because it was not recognized by the US or other countries... Wow. A triple negative in one sentence. That's pretty impressive. This is a completely legitimate viewpoint and not trolling at all, I'm sure.
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Mar 21, 2014 19:11
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As an American, I'd be thrilled if the following took place: -Enrique Peña Nieto driven from power by a FSB-supported coup -a significant proportion of cartel figures were placed in the interim government -US government responds by sending drones and special forces to occupy Chihuahua, which becomes the 51st state -Mexico develops strategic alliance with Russia, sites ABMs
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Mar 21, 2014 19:12
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SedanChair posted:As an American, I'd be thrilled if the following took place:  That's...pretty special.Edit* God dammit, I missed  didn't I?
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Mar 21, 2014 19:13
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Lithuania bans Russian TV over lies. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/21/ukraine-crisis-lithuania-idUSL6N0MI2ZG20140321 quote:(Corrects second paragraph to say tension is between Baltic states and Russia, not between Baltic states) This is still a big deal in Lithuania, they have an active criminal case open to find and arrest the Russians responsible for the January 13, 1991 attack on a Vilnius TV station that killed 13 people. http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/january/13/newsid_4059000/4059959.stm https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2SvhDY23So
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Mar 21, 2014 19:14
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Russian TV dug up some dirt on Sasha Bilyj (Right Sector guy who threatened people with his AK and harassed a state persecutor in Rovno). They claim he's into BDSM and all his scars and bruises are the result of his kink not something he acquired fighting for Maidan. Somewhat  video.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32Qrji1uJZI That's Russian TV for you.
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Mar 21, 2014 19:14
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The Risk posted:How can you prove this...I am not saying that it is not possible that Russians hosed with the elections. What if they did not and it was the true will of the voters. You are telling me that if that was the case Democracy does not count because it was not recognized by the US or other countries... Because it simply doesn't happen on anything which you would know if you had even a modicum of knowledge on the subject. You can literally poll people for things like "are puppies cute" "is hitler bad" and you would have more disparity than this. Not to say that the referendum wouldn't have passed if it were legit, it's just that the 97% precludes it from actually having been a legitimate referendum.
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Mar 21, 2014 19:15
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Alex DeLarge posted:Pretty sure we've made it clear to the PRC that we'd step in if China invaded Taiwan. Much like the NATO discussion, there is a large difference between what words spoken or written on some paper say, and what would actually happen. As an aside, in general people who make conclusive statements like "the US would defend any NATO country attacked" or "the US would defend Taiwan" or "Iraq has WMD" tend to be much worse at prediction than people who assign distributions to outcomes. They've shown in many studies, actually. Not directly relevant, but in threads like this it seems much more common that people are certain about incredibly variable events. The Risk posted:As a US citizen I don't see what is the difference between Crimea and Kosovo. There are differences, but there's also far more similarities than most people here care to admit. Nuclearmonkee posted:You don't get 97% legitimate votes for anything, much less on referendums to secede. This is true (although the vote would have been skewed by boycotts) but it's also irrelevant to whether a majority or not wished to join Russia, and the bulk of the evidence points to a majority in fact wanting to join Russia.
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Mar 21, 2014 19:17
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Deteriorata posted:Wow. A triple negative in one sentence. That's pretty impressive. Believe it or not it's possible to have a difference of opinion in a forum that focuses on debating and discussing. I know this may be a shock to some here.
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Mar 21, 2014 19:21
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SedanChair posted:As an American, I'd be thrilled if the following took place: Please cite your terrible quotes.
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Mar 21, 2014 19:21
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enbot posted:Believe it or not it's possible to have a difference of opinion in a forum that focuses on debating and discussing. I know this may be a shock to some here. When a guy is posting silly stuff from a two-week old account with a negative postcount, I have a hard time taking it seriously.
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Mar 21, 2014 19:23
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enbot posted:Believe it or not it's possible to have a difference of opinion in a forum that focuses on debating and discussing. I know this may be a shock to some here. As a twenty-something British citizen, I suggest you look at his post history
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Mar 21, 2014 19:25
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SedanChair posted:As an American, I'd be thrilled if the following took place: Does that mean Ciudad Juarez gets to be called a "Hero City"?  oh apparently it already is
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Mar 21, 2014 19:26
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Video of a Ukrainian ship attempting to break through the blockade. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W7PtNJkuDoM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3L3aJQrZXI http://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2014/03/21/7019877/
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Mar 21, 2014 19:26
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enbot posted:This is true (although the vote would have been skewed by boycotts) but it's also irrelevant to whether a majority or not wished to join Russia, and the bulk of the evidence points to a majority in fact wanting to join Russia. So here's an idea; Let's say that some very loud people in the southern United States declare that due to Obama's horrid tyrrany against "White people" and Christians, they want to join Apartheid era South Africa. They even tromp about for weeks about how Obama's election is illigitimate. Suddenly, there are 1 million Afrikaaners (who are totally just concerned southern citizens) with guns and military hardware seizing various strategic points across the US. A week later, with said gun wielding (Totally not Afrikaaners) concerned citizens standing outside of the polling stations, Every southern citizen who voted, TOTALLY wants to join with South Africa. 97 % of them are what the (Totally not Afrikaaners) are saying. Is this a valid reason for a large hunk of the country to just up and now belong to South Africa?
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Mar 21, 2014 19:28
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enbot posted:This is true (although the vote would have been skewed by boycotts) but it's also irrelevant to whether a majority or not wished to join Russia, and the bulk of the evidence points to a majority in fact wanting to join Russia. Please show me the "bulk of the evidence" which points to a majority of Crimeans wanting to join Russia. This argument that Crimea should go to Russia anyway regardless of the legitimacy of the referendum keeps getting repeated, but I haven't seen any evidence showing that the majority of Crimeans wanted to join Russia. Do you have any recent polls showing this? Second, even if Crimea wanted to join Russia, that alone may not be enough to justify it. The Ukranian constitution is clear that its territorial integrity must not be violated, which the annexation of Crimea does. Also, Ukraine, the US, and Russia all signed the Budapest Memorandum that guaranteed the territorial integrity of Ukraine, of which the annexation of Crimea is a clear violation. Finally, why the hell are you trying to defend a referendum that was clearly biased to the point of absurdity? There were no international observers--they were turned away at gunpoint. The only observers there were Russian neo-nazis. There are many reports of Russian citizens voting in the referendum, and the voting boxes themselves were transparent, preventing a proper secret ballot. And to top it all off, the only choices on the referendum were independence or joining Russia! There wasn't even a choice to stay in Ukraine! Stop trying to defend an obvious farce.
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Mar 21, 2014 19:30
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Nuclearmonkee posted:Because it simply doesn't happen on anything which you would know if you had even a modicum of knowledge on the subject. You can literally poll people for things like "are puppies cute" "is hitler bad" and you would have more disparity than this.  I guess since it's under 98%, it's legit?
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Mar 21, 2014 19:31
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Cantorsdust posted:Finally, why the hell are you trying to defend a referendum that was clearly biased to the point of absurdity? There were no international observers--they were turned away at gunpoint. The only observers there were Russian neo-nazis. There are many reports of Russian citizens voting in the referendum, and the voting boxes themselves were transparent, preventing a proper secret ballot. And to top it all off, the only choices on the referendum were independence or joining Russia! There wasn't even a choice to stay in Ukraine! Stop trying to defend an obvious farce. To be fair, choice (b) was for nominally staying in Ukraine. But I think you're missing the big problem with it, one which is important since it applies to all elections in Russia: It was held without an effective free press, and an opportunity for people to properly weight their options.
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Mar 21, 2014 19:33
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Majorian posted:Well, it's too early to tell for certain, but I actually don't think Russia lost all that much. Putin's regime didn't exactly engender any trust from the international community beforehand, and the sanctions against Russia are pretty weaksauce overall and probably won't last long anyway (although it's also probably the best the West can do at this point). The stock market is taking a dip, but that's also probably not permanent, and the Russian voting public doesn't see that as more important than the perceived geopolitical gains. People talk about Russia losing a valuable client in Yanukovich, but I actually question how useful he was to them anyway. I think Putin is perfectly happy to instead have a Ukraine that's probably not going to join NATO anytime soon, and is much more fragmented along ethnic lines than it was even before the crisis began. More importantly, he can claim to his constituents that this is an example of him standing up to big bad NATO and reclaiming part of the empire they they lost in 1991. (a really small part, but hey. Every little bit counts) This is how I would have answered this as well. Once the story leaves the news cycle it's going to be long forgotten and will be business as usual. I'd even be surprised if europe meaningfully reduces their dependence on russia for energy- even if they do it's going to be decades away, not years. Talmonis posted:So here's an idea; Let's say that some very loud people in the southern United States declare that due to Obama's horrid tyrrany against "White people" and Christians, they want to join Apartheid era South Africa. They even tromp about for weeks about how Obama's election is illigitimate. Suddenly, there are 1 million Afrikaaners (who are totally just concerned southern citizens) with guns and military hardware seizing various strategic points across the US. A week later, with said gun wielding (Totally not Afrikaaners) concerned citizens standing outside of the polling stations, Every southern citizen who voted, TOTALLY wants to join with South Africa. 97 % of them are what the (Totally not Afrikaaners) are saying. Is this a valid reason for a large hunk of the country to just up and now belong to South Africa? I'm not going to engage silly hypothetical. If you think what you posted is in any way analogous to Russia taking over Crimea I can't imagine you've ever opened a history book.
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Mar 21, 2014 19:33
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enbot posted:This is how I would have answered this as well. Once the story leaves the news cycle it's going to be long forgotten and will be business as usual. I'd even be surprised if europe meaningfully reduces their dependence on russia for energy- even if they do it's going to be decades away, not years. Instead of engaging a silly hypothetical, how about you dig up some proof for me regarding: enbot posted:This is true (although the vote would have been skewed by boycotts) but it's also irrelevant to whether a majority or not wished to join Russia, and the bulk of the evidence points to a majority in fact wanting to join Russia. as well as my points about the referendum not being enough to justify Crimea's annexation, even if it were legitimate.
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Mar 21, 2014 19:35
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Clearly a loud ethnic majority should be able to carve sections of countries off to other nations if they lose an election or their corrupt leader flees the country. Especially with foreign troops seizing various points around your nation. Edit: The inability of some to handle (or just outright refusal to engage with) hypotheticals and analogies when they challenge your stated opinion is depressing. 
Talmonis fucked around with this message at 19:47 on Mar 21, 2014 |
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Mar 21, 2014 19:37
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Deteriorata posted:When a guy is posting silly stuff from a two-week old account with a negative postcount, I have a hard time taking it seriously. I don't get what my previous posts have to do about this discussion. All I stated that if by some chance the referendum was the true will of Crimea we should just gently caress off and let them join Russia. The US has more important poo poo to focus at this moment. Talmonis posted:So here's an idea; Let's say that some very loud people in the southern United States declare that due to Obama's horrid tyrrany against "White people" and Christians, they want to join Apartheid era South Africa. They even tromp about for weeks about how Obama's election is illigitimate. Suddenly, there are 1 million Afrikaaners (who are totally just concerned southern citizens) with guns and military hardware seizing various strategic points across the US. A week later, with said gun wielding (Totally not Afrikaaners) concerned citizens standing outside of the polling stations, Every southern citizen who voted, TOTALLY wants to join with South Africa. 97 % of them are what the (Totally not Afrikaaners) are saying. Is this a valid reason for a large hunk of the country to just up and now belong to South Africa? WTF is this...read some history... Killer robot posted:
Must be legit man
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Mar 21, 2014 19:38
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Elias_Maluco posted:Now poo poo is starting to get serious: But they are totally cool with thousands of slaves dying to build stadiums in Qatar.
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