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zoux posted:Yeah that's what he means in that much like tort reform people are like "heh some lady sued because hot coffee, this proves that litigation has gone mad," but they are in fact wrong, people saying "heh the US military is weak and useless because in a war game a general used hang gliders and a bright mirror to completely defeat the combined might of America" are also in fact wrong. The point is totally valid though, the US is notorious for both relying heavily on technological solutions (eg SIGINT over HUMINT) and for gearing to fight World War III against another superpower rather than asymmetric low-end threats. I mean, one of the things that took so loving long about finding Bin Laden was that he wasn't on the internet (where the NSA copies every bit transmitted), he was writing messages with a pen and paper which were run around by couriers. That's the kind of tactics that Van Riper used, and while it's unrealistic to claim that's "instant" (which I've never seen sourced) it's stupid to claim that those kinds of tactics are something we will never face in a military setting. And in fact Iran does have a fleet of small boats which they train to use in swarm tactics, that's not even a pretend scenario. quote:Iranian naval swarming tactics focus on surprising and isolating the enemy’s forces and preventing their reinforcement or resupply, thereby shattering the enemy’s morale and will to fight. Iran has practiced both mass and dispersed swarming tactics. The former employs mass formations of hundreds of lightly armed and agile small boats that set off from different bases, then converge from different directions to attack a target or group of targets. The latter uses a small number of highly agile missile or torpedo attack craft that set off on their own, from geographically dispersed and concealed locations, and then converge to attack a single target or set of targets (such as a tanker convoy). The dispersed swarming tactic is much more difficult to detect and repel because the attacker never operates in mass formations.
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Jul 16, 2014 17:08
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happyhippy posted:http://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/aug/21/usa.julianborger Yes. As you quoted, it was a set up for them to train on experimental new tactics. Instead of sticking to the script so they could practice, he did his own thing.
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Jul 16, 2014 17:10
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Paul MaudDib posted:The point is totally valid though, the US is notorious for both relying heavily on technological solutions (eg SIGINT over HUMINT) and for gearing to fight World War III against another superpower rather than asymmetric low-end threats. So you train for those in war games designed to train for them, not in war games designed to train on something else. What part of this don't you get?
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Jul 16, 2014 17:11
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I am sure no generals have gone out of their way to present a counter-narrative about Millenium Challenge in the ensuing decade.
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Jul 16, 2014 17:11
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War games aren't LARPs where two sides line up against each other and then go at it, they are highly structured and scripted events.
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Jul 16, 2014 17:12
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Fried Chicken posted:Yes. As you quoted, it was a set up for them to train on experimental new tactics. Instead of sticking to the script so they could practice, he did his own thing. Given that these exercises were supposed to mirror Iran's tactics, boat swarms should not have been unexpected, that's standard doctrine for them as I posted above. Fried Chicken posted:So you train for those in war games designed to train for them, not in war games designed to train on something else. What part of this don't you get? These war games were designed to train for them, though! Again, the article: quote:When Gen Van Riper agreed to command the forces of an unnamed Middle Eastern state - which bore a strong re semblance to Iraq, but could have been Iran - he thought he would be given a free rein to probe US weaknesses. But when the game began, he was told to deploy his forces to make life easier for US forces. The general, at least, was of the understanding that he was supposed to act like a realistic Iran would, which doesn't involve turning off all your defenses and ignoring the doctrines your forces are specialized to execute. If there's such a stringent control on Red, why not just let the control group run them in the first place? You don't need a general involved if the controllers just want some toy soldiers for blue to knock down. Paul MaudDib fucked around with this message at 17:19 on Jul 16, 2014 |
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Jul 16, 2014 17:13
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Paul MaudDib posted:Can you cite that it was instant and 100% accurate? http://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/sep/06/usa.iraq This isn't the detailed account I remember, all I've been able to find is a bunch of articles only telling Van Riper's side of the story. But, this should give at least one indication on his tactics: A bunch of planes and boats were ordered to attack by an encoded message in a call to prayer at a mosque. And, not by any radio transmission. And apparently tiny boats are able to carry anti-ship missiles with no problem. Doctor Butts fucked around with this message at 17:28 on Jul 16, 2014 |
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Jul 16, 2014 17:26
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Doctor Butts posted:A bunch of planes and boats were ordered to attack by an encoded message in a call to prayer at a mosque. And, not by any radio transmission. Well, I guess it depends on the precise way the Guardian is using "coded message" here. Assuming that soldiers have been told "open fire when you hear the call to evening prayers" is dirty as hell but probably fair in a war-game. Assuming that they're being relayed more specific commands probably isn't. Offshore boats and planes probably can't hear too well, but why not assume that these assets will know that the call to prayer will occur at 5:45 PM or whatever? I'm of the understanding that the Muslim religion requires some specific times for prayer that would be obvious to anyone with a clock. Again, need a little more detail to be able to assess realism. Using the call to prayer as a signal to start the attack doesn't sound too unrealistic to me. Doctor Butts posted:And apparently tiny boats are able to carry anti-ship missiles with no problem. Yes, they are! Again, Iran, the threat the game was designed to simulate: quote:Iranian naval swarming tactics focus on surprising and isolating the enemy’s forces and preventing their reinforcement or resupply, thereby shattering the enemy’s morale and will to fight. Iran has practiced both mass and dispersed swarming tactics. The former employs mass formations of hundreds of lightly armed and agile small boats that set off from different bases, then converge from different directions to attack a target or group of targets. The latter uses a small number of highly agile missile or torpedo attack craft that set off on their own, from geographically dispersed and concealed locations, and then converge to attack a single target or set of targets (such as a tanker convoy). The dispersed swarming tactic is much more difficult to detect and repel because the attacker never operates in mass formations. You're just freaking out about real Iranian forces employing a textbook Iranian naval tactic in a wargame that was supposed to simulate an attack on Totally Not Iran. Paul MaudDib fucked around with this message at 17:42 on Jul 16, 2014 |
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Jul 16, 2014 17:34
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Don't know if anyone's posted this already, but crowd-favorite Louie Gohmert has an...interesting take on this whole immigration "crisis" thing:quote:“Well, we know thousands,” Gohmert opined. “And we know people are coming in by the hundreds of thousands illegally. And this administration wants to talk about other people having a war on women when they will not defend the women that are being sexually assaulted by illegally aliens in this country!” So, uhh...reset your "time GOP has gone without saying some horrid poo poo about rape" counters, I guess.
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Jul 16, 2014 17:38
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Regardless of what van Riper actually did and regardless of what "game" is implied to mean in the phrase "war game", you don't just stop it because one side "won" already. If you're supposed to sail around and drill for 5 days or whatever and the other guy manages to beat you in 2, you still reset everything and make use of those last 3 days to drill some more.
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Jul 16, 2014 17:39
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I'm glad to hear posters openly advocating massive CIA on the ground presence across the world to find the people we're after instead of monitoring things. That's certainly a great idea and could not possibly backfire.
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Jul 16, 2014 17:40
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Knight of Arboria posted:Don't know if anyone's posted this already, but crowd-favorite Louie Gohmert has an...interesting take on this whole immigration "crisis" thing: How about those afraid to call police about their own domestic situations out of fear of being deported? Or do they not count?
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Jul 16, 2014 17:41
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Shifty Pony posted:How about those afraid to call police about their own domestic situations out of fear of being deported? Or do they not count? They're too busy sexually assaulting white women to call police.
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Jul 16, 2014 17:42
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdURseSpW3Y Video montage of the protesting including some guy mimicking smoking weed and a guy yelling about America And this sign 
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Jul 16, 2014 17:48
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Paul MaudDib posted:Well, I guess it depends on the precise way the Guardian is using "coded message" here. Assuming that soldiers have been told "open fire when you hear the call to evening prayers" is dirty as hell but probably fair in a war-game. Assuming that they're being relayed more specific commands probably isn't. And were Ripper's boats visible or invisible? How many of them did we see come out of port?
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Jul 16, 2014 17:49
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Paul MaudDib posted:Given that these exercises were supposed to mirror Iran's tactics, boat swarms should not have been unexpected, that's standard doctrine for them as I posted above. quote:These war games were designed to train for them, though! Again, the article: quote:The general, at least, was of the understanding that he was supposed to act like a realistic Iran would, which doesn't involve turning off all your defenses and ignoring the doctrines your forces are specialized to execute. They are more like "you are a saboteur, I am a watch stander. You have opened a valve that is leaking coolant out of the reactor. My job is to perform the immediate actions to prevent the core from uncovering and identify and shut the valve. If I prevent a reactor accident, I win, if the core is uncovered you win". And instead of thinking about the system and choosing a properly obscure valve and opening it just enough that I won't notice the leak rate until it is too late to prevent a problem, you declared "our sub blew a hole in the reactor vessel" Well congratulations, your side has subs, subs shooting at carriers is standard doctrine, and the core was uncovered, but since the point is to test the warning system and immediate actions you just pissed away time and money like a 3 year old screaming you have infinity+1 And you have the control group and team red because you are talking about an exercise so big that monitoring everything is infeasible for a drill team, so you have independent actors. It also means Blue can't cheat by going "ok my buddy on the Bush said they always go for valve 17, so just check shut that valve every time you walk past and your eval will be 5s".
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Jul 16, 2014 17:50
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I swear to our atheist god, if you Americans ruin the nice weather for us European by blowing up half your country after exposing the Yellowstone volcano, I'm gonna be hella pissed.
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Jul 16, 2014 17:51
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No one is going to start drilling in Yellowstone. Also it's gonna happen on its own anyways 
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Jul 16, 2014 17:52
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Worst case scenario, blowing up that supervolcano could cause a near-extinction of the human race, right? Or would that be an even stronger supervolcano somewhere in Indonesia? If it's the former, the religious nutjobs and "constitutional scholars" could literally bring about rapture.
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Jul 16, 2014 17:52
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Knight of Arboria posted:Don't know if anyone's posted this already, but crowd-favorite Louie Gohmert has an...interesting take on this whole immigration "crisis" thing: Jesus, this is straight up "destroy this mad brute" racism.
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Jul 16, 2014 17:55
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Paul MaudDib posted:Again, need a little more detail to be able to assess realism. Using the call to prayer as a signal to start the attack doesn't sound too unrealistic to me. That wargame comes up in the Airpower thread in TFR every 6 months or so. Here's one of the posts about it from a couple years ago: EvanSchenck posted:IIRC the most significant ways that the Red commander cheated in Millenium Challenge were
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Jul 16, 2014 17:56
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:Worst case scenario, blowing up that supervolcano could cause a near-extinction of the human race, right? Or would that be an even stronger supervolcano somewhere in Indonesia? No, an eruption off the Canary islands in the Atlantic would cause the near extinction of the human race. Yellowstone blowing would just trigger our extinction, full stop.
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Jul 16, 2014 17:59
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Fried Chicken posted:No, an eruption off the Canary islands in the Atlantic would cause the near extinction of the human race. Yellowstone blowing would just trigger our extinction, full stop. Eh, volcano explosions like that have happened before and they didn't destroy all life everywhere. I think that the human race will survive anything short of an event that makes the planet impossible for life to form, like something that strips the atmosphere from the planet.
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Jul 16, 2014 18:01
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:Worst case scenario, blowing up that supervolcano could cause a near-extinction of the human race, right? Or would that be an even stronger supervolcano somewhere in Indonesia? Yellowstone would kill most of the western US in the initial first few days of eruption and then the entire world would experience famine due to lack of sun for quite some time. However it wouldn't wipe out the human race. We're hardy folks. It would be worse than Krakatoa was but it isn't a species ender.
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Jul 16, 2014 18:02
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Fried Chicken posted:No, an eruption off the Canary islands in the Atlantic would cause the near extinction of the human race. Yellowstone blowing would just trigger our extinction, full stop. Yep. Frankly if you're in North America you'd probably be better off dying in the immediate aftermath rather than having to suffer and slowly strangle along with the rest of the global ecosystem. Edit: "Worse than Krakatoa" is a massive understatement. mdemone fucked around with this message at 18:05 on Jul 16, 2014 |
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Jul 16, 2014 18:02
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I don't know, Louie Gohmert just said, "Our continued existence is at risk with what’s going on at the southern border" and a volcano seems more serious than that, so I wouldn't rule out extinction.
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Jul 16, 2014 18:03
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:Worst case scenario, blowing up that supervolcano could cause a near-extinction of the human race, right? Or would that be an even stronger supervolcano somewhere in Indonesia? You may be thinking of Lake Toba, which may have been responsible for the death of over half the human race alive at the time. If Yellowstone blew up it would destroy the continental US and cause massive climate disruption all over the world, most likely with the same effect. Krakatoa was a stick of dynamite compared to either of these.
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Jul 16, 2014 18:04
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zoux posted:Rolling Stone has a profile of Gunowners of America founder Larry Pratt, who is identical to the crazy Facebook libertarian gun fucker, with the exception that he wields enormous amounts of influence. This anti-government sentiment is everywhere, despite no evidence that our current government is a tyranny. poo poo, even the Bush government failed to rise to the level of King George, but this sentiment is still there. 
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Jul 16, 2014 18:07
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Every time Yellowstone comes up in conversation I just have this incredible urge to stop thinking about it. I think it's my lizard brain activating the self-preservation mechanism; terror management theory and all that.
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Jul 16, 2014 18:08
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Tigntink posted:Yellowstone would kill most of the western US in the initial first few days of eruption and then the entire world would experience famine due to lack of sun for quite some time. However it wouldn't wipe out the human race. We're hardy folks. It would be worse than Krakatoa was but it isn't a species ender. It really wouldn't, unless you're just speaking in terms of land area. Salt Lake City and Denver would be hosed pretty well but all the other large urban areas of the west are out of the most heavily affected zones in current models, and the same goes for pretty much most of the country east of the Mississippi or so.
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Jul 16, 2014 18:09
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mdemone posted:Every time Yellowstone comes up in conversation I just have this incredible urge to stop thinking about it. I think it's my lizard brain activating the self-preservation mechanism; terror management theory and all that. It's fine. We'd be fine. Also the "overdue for an eruption" stuff is sensationalism, we aren't overdue, and another Yellowstone eruption isn't even a sure thing.
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Jul 16, 2014 18:19
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Is the Canary Islands the one where there'd be a tsunami so massive it'd wipe out everything on the coast of the Atlantic for dozens of miles inland if it exploded/there was a landslide?
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Jul 16, 2014 18:20
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Party Plane Jones posted:Is the Canary Islands the one where there'd be a tsunami so massive it'd wipe out everything on the coast of the Atlantic for dozens of miles inland if it exploded/there was a landslide? Yeah, there is something like 500 billion tons of rocks that would get dropped to the sea floor, causing a wave that would "only" be 60-100 feet tall by the time it hits the Americas and moving at 747 speeds. Keep in mind that something like 80% of the population lives with 60 miles of the ocean. Basically Europe, half of Africa, North America, and South America are toast. A loss that big means wave bye bye to those just in time logistical networks that keep necessities on the shelves, so the places not directly hit are looking at Mad Max soon.
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Jul 16, 2014 18:27
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Everything I know about the Yellowstone supervolcano I learned from the YOSPOS pics thread. http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3617332&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=765#post432186611 http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3617332&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=765#post432191205
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Jul 16, 2014 18:29
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mdemone posted:Every time Yellowstone comes up in conversation I just have this incredible urge to stop thinking about it. I think it's my lizard brain activating the self-preservation mechanism; terror management theory and all that.
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Jul 16, 2014 18:29
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zoux posted:Everything I know about the Yellowstone supervolcano I learned from the YOSPOS pics thread. The BBC did a documentary on it called "Supervolcano" and it scared the gently caress out of me when I saw it as a freshman in high school.
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Jul 16, 2014 18:30
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ufarn posted:The Cascadia earthquake or a Yellowstone eruption, which will gently caress over North America first, pull up your lawn chairs, Europe! Obamacare will destroy the nation long before that. Jerry Manderbilt posted:The BBC did a documentary on it called "Supervolcano" and it scared the gently caress out of me when I saw it as a freshman in high school. Sensationalized documentaries were the primary source of terror for youthful me. Y'all remember Africanized honey bees? That didn't really shake out did it. zoux fucked around with this message at 18:36 on Jul 16, 2014 |
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Jul 16, 2014 18:31
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zoux posted:Everything I know about the Yellowstone supervolcano I learned from the YOSPOS pics thread. Yeah those picture sets really drive home just how few people live within the "guaranteed hosed up" zones surrounding an eruption of Yellowstone. A whole 120-180 miles out and there's still just 11 million people, while within 120 miles there's just 640,000.
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Jul 16, 2014 18:35
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Party Plane Jones posted:That wargame comes up in the Airpower thread in TFR every 6 months or so. Here's one of the posts about it from a couple years ago: Additionally while I couldn't source this, wikipedia says the US naval forces were instructed to turn off their radars and anti-missile stuff just before Riper attacked which is retarded since you would never do that in a combat zone.
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Jul 16, 2014 18:35
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Party Plane Jones posted:That wargame comes up in the Airpower thread in TFR every 6 months or so. Here's one of the posts about it from a couple years ago: The Australians, for what it's worth, took the event a lot more seriously. Here's a circa-2013 publication from the Australian military which cites it as an example. Interestingly, the Aussies, at least, understood it to be a "free play" type game, not a scripted drill type game, and cite it as a supporting example in the context of a paper advocating the importance of such free-play games to professional military development. I did come up with this source as well, which does provide a little more information. This makes it sound like the "zombie forces" were more that during Round 2 the controllers were intervening so that Blue could get some practice out of the game. Blue was ordering Van Riper to move his units, turn off their radars, etc and he was refusing to do so, that could be the "zombie forces". There's another discussion on a mailing list here that suggests the "instant communication" was Van Riper deliberately assuming that his motorcycle messengers would limit his ability for direct control. Instead of directly commanding his forces, he tasked his local commanders with objectives and delegated control to them ("In Command, Out of Control"). That makes the "teleporting messengers" much less significant (if they exist), it's a game and at that point there's inefficiencies in Blue's command structure which aren't modeled too. And yes, Iran's naval doctrine does include swarm attacks from small missile-armed boats operating from concealed decentralized dock sites. You can dress that up by pretending that they're using the dinkiest fishing boat and the biggest circa-1950 soviet cruise missile a google search can muster, but Iran does have and would use missile-armed fast attack boats, that's just a fact. Van Riper didn't order Blue's radar turned off (  ), he knew the weakness of the Aegis system (overwhelming it with targets) and exploited it using his forces. Perhaps not realistic for an adversary to know the exact weaknesses and the resource levels necessary to exploit them, but that's why we have war-games.At this point I'm having trouble coming up with anything I'd consider to be a great source. The Aussies, for example, are citing the Guardian article, and that book is a "7 deadly scenarios" pop-book. It's certainly possible that Van Riper [e: came out of retirement] just to throw a tantrum, but it's also possible that some people are annoyed that the game didn't come out 100% in favor of the US and are distorting the tactics he used in order to save face, or we've gotten that effect via a telephone game (using call to prayers as an attack signal is "coded messages", refusing to turn off his defence's targeting radars is "zombie forces",etc). At this point all I can find are sources about as authoritative as your something awful quote - one guardian article, and some secondary sources, blog posts and other works that cite it. At this point I'm just curious more than anything, is there like an official US summary of the war-game that would be publically available somewhere that might have more detail? Paul MaudDib fucked around with this message at 20:16 on Jul 16, 2014 |
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Jul 16, 2014 18:36
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