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Sheng-ji Yang posted:Podemos is now the most popular party in Spain. Who are they?
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Nov 19, 2014 19:56
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LemonDrizzle posted:As I understand it, the lefties are trying to build support for a vote of their own along similar lines and have tentative rebels among S&D who are saying "we won't back you just yet but will come on board if things start sticking to Juncker". Yeah, except that without S&D, this thing doesn't stand a chance of starting to stick to Juncker in the first place; while I'd like to have a bit more faith in S&D, I don't think is one of those occasions. They were the ones with EPP who gave him the majority, and no-one's in that much of a hurry to a) hand a giant scalp like Juncker to GUE/NGL or to Farage/Le Pen/Grillo or b) admit they cocked up so dramatically by confirming him in the first place. Nonsense posted:Who are they? Sort of the Syriza of Spain. Junior G-man fucked around with this message at 20:03 on Nov 19, 2014 |
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Nov 19, 2014 19:58
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Nonsense posted:Who are they? A left wing anti-austerity party born from the indignados protest movement. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/16/podemos-left-crisis-ukip-anti-immigrant This is their leader and currently the most popular politician in Spain. 
Sheng-Ji Yang fucked around with this message at 20:04 on Nov 19, 2014 |
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Nov 19, 2014 20:00
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They are more anarchist than Syriza. While Syriza was founded as an alliance between various trotskyite and other leftist parties, Podemos is more of a completely new party, that's in part based in the indignado movement
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Nov 19, 2014 20:03
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Spain's problem is that it really doesn't matter who it elects because the only entities capable of materially influencing its fate are not answerable to its voters or even resident in Spain.Junior G-man posted:Yeah, except that without S&D, this thing doesn't stand a chance of starting to stick to Juncker in the first place; while I'd like to have a bit more faith in S&D, I don't think is one of those occasions.
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Nov 19, 2014 20:21
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LemonDrizzle posted:Spain's problem is that it really doesn't matter who it elects because the only entities capable of materially influencing its fate are not answerable to its voters or even resident in Spain. More or less thats the issue, even if Spain truly radicalizes there isn't anywhere to go without domestic sovereignty over a currency, and right now Spanish bonds are heavily (but quietly) subsidized by the EU/ECB and implicitly the Fed. If Spain right now went off the Euro, the ECB could drop the support and the Nueva Peseta and Spanish bonds would likely crater near immediately. Of course it would be a dangerous game because so many European banks hold Spanish bonds it would be a disaster for everyone. Spain and the rest of Europe is held in a tightly woven trap where they can't leave, but in the end the policies of the past few decades have left a unsustainable situation at the same time. It is becoming en vogue to talk about the Eurocrisis as past tense, as bonds rates have dropped and they has been some moderate growth and decreases in unemployment in certain countries but I have a feeling it is more a natural lull from such a devastating drop. One thing is that debt levels are already so high, they are going to need far more growth over a decade or more to really stabilize themselves and the second is that economic engines of Europe (France/Germany) are if anything weakening. The story is far from over, if anything we are the end of the beginning. But conclusion, it is far better I think for Pedemos if anything to be out of government while there isn't anything for them to do in it . They could certainly use that time to better organize themselves and start working at the local/provincial level. Also in a perverse sense they would do much better as a pressure bloc out side of government, forcing the central government to compromise without taking the poo poo that comes with running a country like present-day Spain.
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Nov 19, 2014 20:42
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LemonDrizzle posted:Spain's problem is that it really doesn't matter who it elects because the only entities capable of materially influencing its fate are not answerable to its voters or even resident in Spain.
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Nov 19, 2014 20:51
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Good luck carrying out any of those plans without borrowing money, which will be very difficult the moment Spain steps out of line.
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Nov 19, 2014 20:57
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Is there really no way for Spain to put Germany in a position where it has to reconsider its relationship to the rest of Europe? I'm thinking Spain could begin to draw up all sorts of plans to help their economy which are against the rules of the EU, and possibly implement them, and when Germany protests tell them that it's either that or Germany actually solving poo poo, now, because Spain can't wait. As Ardennes says, the Eurocrisis is hardly over. If the slow rot is going to continue anyway, making it even harder to dig ourselves out of the next hole, then you might as well start bashing away at the whole rotten system until the people in power get it through their heads that they need to build something better. Standard protocol for dealing with intransigent periphery governments who try that sort of thing is to cut off the money supply and instigate a coup to install a more cooperative regime. Was done in Greece and they were preparing for an Italian putsch in 2012.
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Nov 19, 2014 21:06
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Junior G-man posted:I still hope it comes to a debate though. It's a scandalous state of affairs that needs hearing in the EP, but it's just a massive shame that it's led by Grillo, Farage and Le Pen - it should be coming from S&D and EPP too. But it's not, out of political corporatism. These people confuse "protect Europe" with "protect my party". The only possible outcome is further vindication for the Le Pens and Farages out there, as once again they have a solid proof that they are the only one willing to battle against European Union corruption. This is how you give power to the far right. You refuse to tackle legitimate, urgent issues because they are tainted from being included in far right rhetorics.
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Nov 19, 2014 23:13
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Cat Mattress posted:But it's not, out of political corporatism. These people confuse "protect Europe" with "protect my party". The only possible outcome is further vindication for the Le Pens and Farages out there, as once again they have a solid proof that they are the only one willing to battle against European Union corruption. That is only part of it though, tackling that issue also means tackling the rampant gaming of the tax system in Europe which obviously exists to benefit certain financial actors. It is only the far-right has enough to politically gain to say something about it, but although I wonder if the far-left is going to jump on board since this is obviously something anyone on the left should hate as well. The far-left is probably going to have to hold their nose or otherwise put themselves in a pretty awkward ideological position. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 23:40 on Nov 19, 2014 |
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Nov 19, 2014 23:37
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Ardennes posted:That is only part of it though, tackling that issue also means tackling the rampant gaming of the tax system in Europe which obviously exists to benefit certain financial actors. It is only the far-right has enough to politically gain to say something about it, but although I wonder if the far-left is going to jump on board since this is obviously something anyone on the left should hate as well. The article mentioned that, GUE/NGL also tried, separately, to get votes for a motion of censure but didn't get the needed number yet.
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Nov 20, 2014 08:46
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Is there really no way for Spain to put Germany in a position where it has to reconsider its relationship to the rest of Europe? I'm thinking Spain could begin to draw up all sorts of plans to help their economy which are against the rules of the EU, and possibly implement them, and when Germany protests tell them that it's either that or Germany actually solving poo poo, now, because Spain can't wait. As Ardennes says, the Eurocrisis is hardly over. If the slow rot is going to continue anyway, making it even harder to dig ourselves out of the next hole, then you might as well start bashing away at the whole rotten system until the people in power get it through their heads that they need to build something better. What kind of plans do you want to implement though? I think the individual institutions like the ECB are doing what they can within the treaty. And as long as it doesn't involve German money, I don't think Germany would care at all. But the issue is that what you need is actual, German taxpayer money. Taxpayers who haven't seen a wage increase for many years, half of which countries like Spain were on a spending spree (including wages) thanks to interest convergence. While the following growth in German gdp is due to domestic demand, which still has not affected the actual real wages in German households! How would you explain this to the German taxpayer? Their reaction to demands to give out all the money "they have earned in the last years" will be to vote AfD, let Merkel find a way to get Germany out of the Euro without too much harm and then everything will go to literal poo poo in countries south of Switzerland, and lol if you think Germany will suffer even remotely as much as the periphery. Politically, there's really no where to go but forward into more EU, including some resemblance of fiscal policy. Boner Slam fucked around with this message at 13:43 on Nov 20, 2014 |
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Nov 20, 2014 13:35
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YF-23 posted:The article mentioned that, GUE/NGL also tried, separately, to get votes for a motion of censure but didn't get the needed number yet. I mean they would actually have to support the same motion at the same time, but the chance of that is remote because of "optics."
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Nov 20, 2014 14:07
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Boner Slam posted:What kind of plans do you want to implement though? "Forward into more EU" would have to mean that EU institutions are strengthened and made further independent, and that member countries start putting more money into the EU and receiving more money from the EU. That cannot, in any way, not involve "German money".
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Nov 20, 2014 16:09
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So the short and sweet is that if the EU wants to actually progress, it needs to boot out both the UK and Germany? Meh, works for me.
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Nov 20, 2014 16:13
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Cat Mattress posted:So the short and sweet is that if the EU wants to actually progress, it needs to boot out both the UK and Germany? A return to the original intent of a French Empire?
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Nov 20, 2014 16:20
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Boner Slam posted:What kind of plans do you want to implement though? Giving the average German a pay rise and encouraging them to go out and spend would be a pretty good way of helping out the periphery...
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Nov 20, 2014 16:25
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LemonDrizzle posted:Giving the average German a pay rise and encouraging them to go out and spend would be a pretty good way of helping out the periphery... Boosting inflation and purchasing power trough increased wages?! You're mad!!! 
MiddleOne fucked around with this message at 16:39 on Nov 20, 2014 |
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Nov 20, 2014 16:32
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YF-23 posted:"Forward into more EU" would have to mean that EU institutions are strengthened and made further independent, and that member countries start putting more money into the EU and receiving more money from the EU. That cannot, in any way, not involve "German money". LemonDrizzle posted:Standard protocol for dealing with intransigent periphery governments who try that sort of thing is to cut off the money supply and instigate a coup to install a more cooperative regime. Was done in Greece and they were preparing for an Italian putsch in 2012. Cat Mattress posted:So the short and sweet is that if the EU wants to actually progress, it needs to boot out both the UK and Germany? 
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Nov 20, 2014 17:27
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Ardennes posted:That is only part of it though, tackling that issue also means tackling the rampant gaming of the tax system in Europe which obviously exists to benefit certain financial actors. It is only the far-right has enough to politically gain to say something about it, but although I wonder if the far-left is going to jump on board since this is obviously something anyone on the left should hate as well. i think the ever more obvious fact that "mainstream" parties all over the place are unable/unwilling to solve or even speak about policies that clearly just benefit the wealthy proves how little influence the general public in our democracies has. Maybe not as bad as in the US yet, but thats where we are heading. http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-echochambers-27074746
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Nov 20, 2014 17:44
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A Buttery Pastry posted:I assume you mean "interdependent", but yes, moving the EU forward to the point where interdependence is a boon and not a hindrance is what I was thinking. The current situation, halfway between a free trade zone and a federation, will serve no one in the long run. I meant independent, as in independent from whichever country is the EU strongman at the time (in the present case Berlin).
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Nov 20, 2014 17:59
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YF-23 posted:I meant independent, as in independent from whichever country is the EU strongman at the time (in the present case Berlin). That will never happen as long the parliaments has the distribution of the seats decided by size of population. If it's not Germany it will be France, Italy, Spain or the UK.
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Nov 20, 2014 18:02
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Cat Mattress posted:So the short and sweet is that if the EU wants to actually progress, it needs to boot out both the UK and Germany? The EU as an economic union containing both rich and poor countries, but without joint fiscal policy, was a violently terrible idea, doomed to fail feom the very start. So yes, pretty much
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Nov 20, 2014 18:05
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YF-23 posted:I meant independent, as in independent from whichever country is the EU strongman at the time (in the present case Berlin). Xoidanor posted:That will never happen as long the parliaments has the distribution of the seats decided by size of population. If it's not Germany it will be France, Italy, Spain or the UK.
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Nov 20, 2014 18:12
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Cat Mattress posted:The ECB is a good example of why having independent EU institutions isn't necessarily a good idea. The ECB seems to be locked in continuous fighting with Germany over what policy to follow and also has several restrictions that hinder its function, so I would say it's exactly an example of why there is need for stronger, independent EU institutions.
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Nov 20, 2014 18:16
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Saw that the TTIP thread has been archived, but this fits this thread well enough. This study came out in October (didn't see anything on it posted in here), expect it to http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/wp/14-03CapaldoTTIP_ES.pdf quote:Executive Summary Funnily enough my government(s, previous rightwing AND the new "social democrat") seem to be the most gung ho of all in getting this deal through. This will be great you guys, surely GDP and exports will go up for everyone involved as indicated by this one modelling tool we bothered to use  The French are making noises about not ratifying the treaties (the Canadian one too), but not due to said study (mostly the whole "business can sue governments" part).
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Nov 20, 2014 18:23
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Cat Mattress posted:What other system can there be? One in which one Luxembourger has more voting power in the European Parliament than a hundred Italians? Why not? All they would have to do in order to retain similar representation is dividing themselves into smaller nations trough separation, something for which there already is major popular support as we can see by looking at Spain, Belgium and the UK. Hell even Germany has support for it as we can see with the east versus west divide which has started to resurface in the passing year. The eurocrisis has pretty much proven that representation by population only leads to the bullying of less populous nations. One thing is for sure though, the current status quo benefits no one. The EU must centralise or decentralise, it can't keep tip-toing the line.
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Nov 20, 2014 18:35
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YF-23 posted:The ECB seems to be locked in continuous fighting with Germany over what policy to follow and also has several restrictions that hinder its function, so I would say it's exactly an example of why there is need for stronger, independent EU institutions. It's not really accurate to say that the ECB is fighting Germany - it's more that there are opposing factions within the ECB who want different things. It's also important to note that it's Draghi and his friends who are trying to pull the bank away from its theoretical remit and principles - it's supposed to be a mega bundesbank for europe, not a machine for funnelling german money into the periphery.
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Nov 20, 2014 18:35
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Xoidanor posted:The eurocrisis has pretty much proven that representation by population only leads to the bullying of less populous nations. I really don't think wholesale Balkanization is a solution to anything unless you regard seventy years of European peace as some kind of problem.
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Nov 20, 2014 18:40
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LemonDrizzle posted:Less populous nations like Italy and Spain, you mean? I was thinking of Greece, Portugal and Cyprus which have had no loving influence on anything that has happened since 2011, they've just continually gotten screwed over. As for the peace thing we currently have the ECB and parliament inadvertedly pushing for the revitalisation of nazism in Europe so I don't think that argument holds any water today. MiddleOne fucked around with this message at 18:47 on Nov 20, 2014 |
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Nov 20, 2014 18:44
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If Germany refuses to subsidize the periphery then there's no reason for the periphery to stick around. It's actively detrimental to the economies of the periphery to do so. They would gain pretty much universally by balkanization. Germany would lose out, because the con would be up, but Spain and Greece would not lose out by ripping up the free trade agreements and common monetary policy
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Nov 20, 2014 18:45
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Honestly, an American-style system with two different forms of representation - by population and flat per-state - seems like the most obvious solution. Even more appropriate than for America itself, in fact. Of course, although it's fairer, it would also involve adding another set of moving parts to the clusterfuck that is EU governance, so I can't see it happening any time soon.
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Nov 20, 2014 18:48
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Guildencrantz posted:Honestly, an American-style system with two different forms of representation - by population and flat per-state - seems like the most obvious solution. Even more appropriate than for America itself, in fact. We already sorta have that though, the parliament represents the population and the council represents the head of state.
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Nov 20, 2014 18:49
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Guildencrantz posted:Honestly, an American-style system with two different forms of representation - by population and flat per-state - seems like the most obvious solution. Even more appropriate than for America itself, in fact. The flat per-state model just means that all votes in a state for the party that didnt win in that state are lost when looking at america as a whole. You just would exchange one inbalance for another one. icantfindaname posted:If Germany refuses to subsidize the periphery then there's no reason for the periphery to stick around. It's actively detrimental to the economies of the periphery to do so. They would gain pretty much universally by balkanization. Germany would lose out, because the con would be up, but Spain and Greece would not lose out by ripping up the free trade agreements and common monetary policy But isnt it nice that "delayed filing of insolvency" turns from a criminal act into a policy when the commission does it  Nektu fucked around with this message at 19:16 on Nov 20, 2014 |
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Nov 20, 2014 19:01
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Guildencrantz posted:Honestly, an American-style system with two different forms of representation - by population and flat per-state - seems like the most obvious solution. Even more appropriate than for America itself, in fact. That's basically the conception already though: EP elected according to population and council representing individual member states. I guess the analogous system in the US would see a Senate of the 50 state governors
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Nov 20, 2014 19:21
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Nektu posted:Isnt the american voting system basically just garbage that is still left over from the times when the pony express was the fastest way of communication? The thing is that despite the imbalances in the American federal system, every component state already has a fairly significant amount of power taken away by the federal government itself. This provides a not insignificant "imbalance" away from all the states inherently which isn't currently possible for the countries of the European Union.
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Nov 20, 2014 20:31
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icantfindaname posted:If Germany refuses to subsidize the periphery then there's no reason for the periphery to stick around. It's actively detrimental to the economies of the periphery to do so. They would gain pretty much universally by balkanization. Germany would lose out, because the con would be up, but Spain and Greece would not lose out by ripping up the free trade agreements and common monetary policy It is too late for them though, they need they need loan subsidization from the ECB to keep their yields down. Most people would think buying Spanish or Greece bonds at this moment is an insane idea but 10y bonds are at 2.1% because silently they are being subsidized. Basically though it is like keeping the ventilator on while you're harvesting organs. In 2008, Spanish debt levels were 36.1% of GDP, now they are 92.1% with little sign of them slowing down.
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Nov 21, 2014 05:06
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Antwan3K posted:That's basically the conception already though: EP elected according to population and council representing individual member states. I guess the analogous system in the US would see a Senate of the 50 state governors Boy, if the European Council were composed of 28 Huey Longs, y'all would solve your austerity problem extremely quickly. And you might even see a downtick in corruption!
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Nov 21, 2014 07:15
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Ardennes posted:It is too late for them though, they need they need loan subsidization from the ECB to keep their yields down. Most people would think buying Spanish or Greece bonds at this moment is an insane idea but 10y bonds are at 2.1% because silently they are being subsidized. 2,1% while substantially better than what most countries offer right now is still a gain which could easily be eaten up by interest in the 10 year span. If it was 3 or 5 years on the other hand...
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Nov 21, 2014 09:19
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