Fantasy Football 2015: Value Based Guessing

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Azhais: Feb 5, 2007; Switchblade Switcharoo

What do people think of Josh Huff this year? Someone has offered me Huff for DeAndre Smelter (who is on my taxi squad and not really taking up roster space). I vaguely need WR but I don't know that Huff is really the answer.

# ? Jun 1, 2015 03:07

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# ? May 16, 2024 15:40

Benne: Sep 2, 2011; STOP DOING HEROIN

I think Spiller will surprise people because he doesn't have noted idiot fucker Doug Marrone trying to run him between the tackles anymore, and Payton might actually play to his strengths.

# ? Jun 1, 2015 09:34

Matt Zerella: Oct 7, 2002; Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)

Benne posted:

I think Spiller will surprise people because he doesn't have noted idiot fucker Doug Marrone trying to run him between the tackles anymore, and Payton might actually play to his strengths.

I hope you're right, but I'm not touching him. Out of the frying pan, into the fire.

# ? Jun 1, 2015 13:53

Azhais: Feb 5, 2007; Switchblade Switcharoo

I'm gonna continue posting to this thread because nobody else is:

Dynasty trade, .5 ppr 2RB/2WR/1WRT:

My:
AJ Green
2015 2nd round pick (which is dumb because we're already in the 4th and I would counter without it anyway)

His:
Eddie Lacy

My WR/RB:

Matt Forte
Shane Vereen
Bishop Sankey
Stevan Ridley
Ameer Abdulla
(so I could probably use the RB)

AJ Green
Jordy Nelson
Golden Tate
Jordan Matthews
Kendall Wright
Charles Johnson
Paul Richardson
Chris Conley

Overall I could probably soak the loss of AJ. What do people think of a straight Lacy/Green swap?

# ? Jun 2, 2015 21:27

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Azhais posted:

I'm gonna continue posting to this thread because nobody else is:

Dynasty trade, .5 ppr 2RB/2WR/1WRT:

My:
AJ Green
2015 2nd round pick (which is dumb because we're already in the 4th and I would counter without it anyway)

His:
Eddie Lacy

My WR/RB:

Matt Forte
Shane Vereen
Bishop Sankey
Stevan Ridley
Ameer Abdulla
(so I could probably use the RB)

AJ Green
Jordy Nelson
Golden Tate
Jordan Matthews
Kendall Wright
Charles Johnson
Paul Richardson
Chris Conley

Overall I could probably soak the loss of AJ. What do people think of a straight Lacy/Green swap?

What worries me is what happens when Jordy Nelson goes away. That said Golden Tate is a good pickup and Jordan Matthews could really excel, so I would probably make the trade given your needs.

# ? Jun 2, 2015 22:01

railroad terror: Jul 2, 2007; choo choo

I've been doing some early early mock drafts and here are some trends I'm noticing:

1st overall pick has been a mix of Charles, Bell, or even Antonio Brown
Odell Beckham Jr consistenly getting drafted in Round 1 PPR
First WR off the board 90% of the time is Antonio Brown, followed by ODB
Justin Forsett generally gone by Round 3 (some value there maybe with a decent Ravens O-line)
Top 2 QB's off the board tend to be Luck & Rodgers, usually too early for my tastes

--------------------

I'm not too knowledgeable about O-Lines, beyond the basics. But drafting Demarco Murray last year with the #10 overall pick kind of woke me up to just how much success they can give you in fantasy. I read the Reddit article a few posts back -- good stuff. Crowell seems like a good pick for RB this year.

# ? Jun 3, 2015 14:22

RCarr: Dec 24, 2007

I guess I'm lucky to be able to keep Leveon in the 3rd :getin:

# ? Jun 3, 2015 14:25

axelord: Dec 28, 2012; College Slice

railroad terror posted:

I've been doing some early early mock drafts and here are some trends I'm noticing:

1st overall pick has been a mix of Charles, Bell, or even Antonio Brown
Odell Beckham Jr consistenly getting drafted in Round 1 PPR
First WR off the board 90% of the time is Antonio Brown, followed by ODB
Justin Forsett generally gone by Round 3 (some value there maybe with a decent Ravens O-line)
Top 2 QB's off the board tend to be Luck & Rodgers, usually too early for my tastes

--------------------

I'm not too knowledgeable about O-Lines, beyond the basics. But drafting Demarco Murray last year with the #10 overall pick kind of woke me up to just how much success they can give you in fantasy. I read the Reddit article a few posts back -- good stuff. Crowell seems like a good pick for RB this year.

I like Crowell and I think he could be great. The problem is Terrance West and Duke Johnson are in the backfield too. Plus last year the Brown coaching staff would choose the starter by who did the best in practice and it may change weekly. And worse you won't have any idea who the guy is for that week.

Here's the latest:

quote:

Browns beat writer Mary Kay Cabot on the team's running back situation...

I think (Duke Johnson), the Browns' third-round pick out of Miami, will definitely press Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell for playing time, and might even win the job. More than likely, however, I think the Browns will mix and match the backs depending on the opponent. One might start one week and another one the next. At the very least, I think Johnson will see action early on as a third-down back, running and catching passes out of the backfield. He'll also return kicks and make an impact right away.

Fantasy Impact:
Last year, HC Mike Pettine was handing out playing time based on practice performance each week, so this is shaping up to be a giant headache for fantasy owners.

# ? Jun 3, 2015 16:40

Gyshall: Feb 24, 2009; Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

Mary Kay Cabot is the worst beat writer for fantasy purposes, imo. Doesn't help that she is writing for a poo poo team.

Anyway, does anyone know of an app or spreadsheet that would let me import my MFL10 teams/rosters into manageable data?

# ? Jun 3, 2015 17:13

Suave Fedora: Jun 10, 2004

Silly Burrito posted:

A question for you that came up amongst a few players in our league. 14 team league, starting over from scratch this year but will be two keepers.

Thinking about Dallas' front line, do you consider Darren McFadden a first round pick now?

Half said yes, half said no. I said hell no, not with my first round pick (12). What say you all?

Your first round pick should be someone who is a proven commodity. The definition of "proven commodity" will vary per person, but arguably a top 10 producer in 2014 who is in the same team, scheme, coach, injury-free, etc would fit the bill.

You definitely don't want to be speculating in the first two rounds. It's bad enough when you pick a proven commodity (Graham last year) and he busts miserably.

# ? Jun 5, 2015 14:55

Sataere: Jul 20, 2005; Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me

Suave Fedora posted:

Your first round pick should be someone who is a proven commodity. The definition of "proven commodity" will vary per person, but arguably a top 10 producer in 2014 who is in the same team, scheme, coach, injury-free, etc would fit the bill.

You definitely don't want to be speculating in the first two rounds. It's bad enough when you pick a proven commodity (Graham last year) and he busts miserably.

I sort of disagree with this logic. Your top ten picks should be guys you think will be top five producers at their position. That is all that should matter.

# ? Jun 5, 2015 16:00

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Sataere posted:

I sort of disagree with this logic. Your top ten picks should be guys you think will be top five producers at their position. That is all that should matter.

Yes you should obviously focus on studs, but the issue is risk. Failing to take risk into account is what leads to getting a massive bust. There are so many options in the early picks that I prefer to focus on safer choices with proven track records.

# ? Jun 5, 2015 16:35

RCarr: Dec 24, 2007

if you don't take Montee Ball in the first round.

# ? Jun 5, 2015 16:50

Fight Club Sandwich: Apr 29, 2006; you want a piece of me???

whoops wrong thread

# ? Jun 5, 2015 16:53

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

RCarr posted:

if you don't take Montee Ball in the first round.

Sorry that spot is earmarked for Charles Sims.

# ? Jun 5, 2015 17:02

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Joke's on you suckers, I traded my first round pick this year, no stress for me. :smuggo:

# ? Jun 5, 2015 17:06

Azhais: Feb 5, 2007; Switchblade Switcharoo

Good luck starting Jonas Gray as your RB1

# ? Jun 5, 2015 17:56

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Azhais posted:

Good luck starting Jonas Gray as your RB1

Keeper league, I have Jonathan Stewart for an 18th and Jeremy Hill for a 7th. :smug:

My roster this year is going to be gross, especially for a 12 person, actively managed cash league.

# ? Jun 5, 2015 18:07

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

Your first round pick should be:

an elite at their position, league-wide
unambiguously healthy and ready to play the entire season
in a team situation where they can excel as the clear and unambiguous #1 for their position and also as the #1 play-maker for the team
playing in a position where there is a steep drop-off in fantasy production once the few elites have been drafted
a player you want to watch every week and will enjoy watching succeed

All of these, together, make for a first round pick. If any of them aren't there, it's probably not the guy you should draft. For me, that means avoiding players with questionable play status (suspended or likely to be), or who I actively hate as people (AP), or who are in positionally-rich positions (QB), or who are in team situations where it's unclear how they'll be used (Graham), or a hot-hand RB situation, or an RB on a team with a questionable OL, etc.

I think a fantasy football team should represent not only the players you think can win you a championship, but also the players that will attract and hold your attention and interest all season. You want to feel happy when they do well, and that's hard to do if they play on the team you hate. If you're like me, you're going to try to watch at least the highlights if not the entire games for all of your important fantasy players; you want to be watching good enjoyable football and having a good time, not watching bad football or rooting for a player to earn you points on a team you actually want to lose games.

I know when there's money on the line, or if you're indifferent to who wins or loses, that may not be a concern. But god, if you're indifferent to football, why are you doing this? There are easier and more profitable ways to make money, if that's the only concern.

# ? Jun 5, 2015 19:28

Gyshall: Feb 24, 2009; Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

Leperflesh posted:

Your first round pick should be:

an elite at their position, league-wide

unambiguously healthy and ready to play the entire season

in a team situation where they can excel as the clear and unambiguous #1 for their position and also as the #1 play-maker for the team

playing in a position where there is a steep drop-off in fantasy production once the few elites have been drafted

a player you want to watch every week and will enjoy watching succeed

All of these, together, make for a first round pick. If any of them aren't there, it's probably not the guy you should draft. For me, that means avoiding players with questionable play status (suspended or likely to be), or who I actively hate as people (AP), or who are in positionally-rich positions (QB), or who are in team situations where it's unclear how they'll be used (Graham), or a hot-hand RB situation, or an RB on a team with a questionable OL, etc.

I think a fantasy football team should represent not only the players you think can win you a championship, but also the players that will attract and hold your attention and interest all season. You want to feel happy when they do well, and that's hard to do if they play on the team you hate. If you're like me, you're going to try to watch at least the highlights if not the entire games for all of your important fantasy players; you want to be watching good enjoyable football and having a good time, not watching bad football or rooting for a player to earn you points on a team you actually want to lose games.

I know when there's money on the line, or if you're indifferent to who wins or loses, that may not be a concern. But god, if you're indifferent to football, why are you doing this? There are easier and more profitable ways to make money, if that's the only concern.

gently caress that your first round pick should be Charles Sims

# ? Jun 5, 2015 19:54

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

Gyshall posted:

gently caress that your first round pick should be Charles Sims

Well I mean, obviously Charles Sims fits all of my criteria, so...?

# ? Jun 5, 2015 19:58

Silly Burrito: Nov 27, 2007; SET A COURSE FOR
THE FLAVOR QUADRANT

Leperflesh posted:

Your first round pick should be:

an elite at their position, league-wide

unambiguously healthy and ready to play the entire season

in a team situation where they can excel as the clear and unambiguous #1 for their position and also as the #1 play-maker for the team

playing in a position where there is a steep drop-off in fantasy production once the few elites have been drafted

a player you want to watch every week and will enjoy watching succeed

All of these, together, make for a first round pick. If any of them aren't there, it's probably not the guy you should draft. For me, that means avoiding players with questionable play status (suspended or likely to be), or who I actively hate as people (AP), or who are in positionally-rich positions (QB), or who are in team situations where it's unclear how they'll be used (Graham), or a hot-hand RB situation, or an RB on a team with a questionable OL, etc.

I think a fantasy football team should represent not only the players you think can win you a championship, but also the players that will attract and hold your attention and interest all season. You want to feel happy when they do well, and that's hard to do if they play on the team you hate. If you're like me, you're going to try to watch at least the highlights if not the entire games for all of your important fantasy players; you want to be watching good enjoyable football and having a good time, not watching bad football or rooting for a player to earn you points on a team you actually want to lose games.

I know when there's money on the line, or if you're indifferent to who wins or loses, that may not be a concern. But god, if you're indifferent to football, why are you doing this? There are easier and more profitable ways to make money, if that's the only concern.

Which is why I'll never draft a player from the Falcons, no matter the value. Just feels dirty rooting for them to do well.

# ? Jun 5, 2015 20:09

Matt Zerella: Oct 7, 2002; Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)

Giants fan here who loves Dez Bryant.

# ? Jun 5, 2015 20:11

VDay: Jul 2, 2003; I'm Pacman Jones!

Gyshall posted:

gently caress that your first round pick should be Charles Sims

Sims is the obvious 1.01, so therefore there's no point in talking about him since most people won't have the first pick. If you do have the first pick then you're just going to take Sims and win your league easily, so you don't need fantasy advice.

# ? Jun 5, 2015 20:32

Sataere: Jul 20, 2005; Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

Yes you should obviously focus on studs, but the issue is risk. Failing to take risk into account is what leads to getting a massive bust. There are so many options in the early picks that I prefer to focus on safer choices with proven track records.

Leperflesh posted:

Your first round pick should be:

an elite at their position, league-wide

unambiguously healthy and ready to play the entire season

in a team situation where they can excel as the clear and unambiguous #1 for their position and also as the #1 play-maker for the team

playing in a position where there is a steep drop-off in fantasy production once the few elites have been drafted

a player you want to watch every week and will enjoy watching succeed

All of these, together, make for a first round pick. If any of them aren't there, it's probably not the guy you should draft. For me, that means avoiding players with questionable play status (suspended or likely to be), or who I actively hate as people (AP), or who are in positionally-rich positions (QB), or who are in team situations where it's unclear how they'll be used (Graham), or a hot-hand RB situation, or an RB on a team with a questionable OL, etc.

I think a fantasy football team should represent not only the players you think can win you a championship, but also the players that will attract and hold your attention and interest all season. You want to feel happy when they do well, and that's hard to do if they play on the team you hate. If you're like me, you're going to try to watch at least the highlights if not the entire games for all of your important fantasy players; you want to be watching good enjoyable football and having a good time, not watching bad football or rooting for a player to earn you points on a team you actually want to lose games.

I know when there's money on the line, or if you're indifferent to who wins or loses, that may not be a concern. But god, if you're indifferent to football, why are you doing this? There are easier and more profitable ways to make money, if that's the only concern.

There is a level of risk regardless. I should point out that I never would draft a guy who has never produced in the first round. There needs to be some sort of baseline to project a guy as an elite talent. If you used health as a baseline last year, you probably didn't draft Murray in the first. Injuries are very hard to predict, so I try to only use it as a tie-breaker.

What it comes right down to is metrics go right out the window if I think a guy is going to be a stud. I will try to gauge where other people are drafting that guy, but I will make sure he is on my roster, regardless of what anyone else thinks.

# ? Jun 5, 2015 20:40

Forever_Peace: May 7, 2007; Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah

Just FYI, the footballguys app lets you access all their premium stuff right now for free. They did this last summer too, then locked it around fantasy draft time. Might as well check it out.

# ? Jun 5, 2015 20:55

Quarterroys: Jul 1, 2008

Anthony Davis just announced his retirement, so Carlos Hyde takes a hit in value. What the gently caress is going on with the 49ers.

# ? Jun 5, 2015 22:24

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

Cervixalot posted:

Anthony Davis just announced his retirement, so Carlos Hyde takes a hit in value. What the gently caress is going on with the 49ers.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/06/05/49ers-anthony-davis-retires-at-age-25/

Concussion awareness. He got rattled pretty bad last year, and is probably taking a cue from Chris Borland retiring based primarily on concerns about brain damage. This is gonna be a rebuilding year for the niners regardless, so if Davis wants a year or two off, it's not a terrible time to take it now; it's not like he's potentially costing the team or missing out on a championship.

# ? Jun 5, 2015 22:36

Sataere: Jul 20, 2005; Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me

Cervixalot posted:

Anthony Davis just announced his retirement, so Carlos Hyde takes a hit in value. What the gently caress is going on with the 49ers.

When I heard this on the radio, I thought they were talking about the other Anthony Davis and nearly lost my mind.

# ? Jun 5, 2015 22:55

3 DONG HORSE: May 22, 2008; I'd like to thank Satan for everything he's done for this organization

BREAKING NEWS :siren:

Charles Sims adds muscle posted:

Source: PewterReport.com - Scott Reynolds

Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Charles Sims has added some muscle during the offseason, which could help him be a better runner between the tackles.

BUT WAIT! THE MASTER DENIES THE APPRENTICE

Doug Martin leaner, faster posted:

Source: PewterReport.com - Scott Reynolds

Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Doug Martin is leaner and appears faster than ever this offseason with acceleration that hasn't been seen since his rookie season, according to PewterReport.com's Scott Reynolds. 'I'm trying to get my body fat percentage down,' Martin said. 'I am a little smaller in terms of my body fat percentage that's decreased, so that's good. I'm just trying to get my muscle gain up and get that fat out. Definitely I feel quicker - faster. I feel real good. 'I wanted to be a little faster and a little quicker in my game and for me to be able to do that was to decrease my body fat, go hard in the weight room and come out here on the field and show the coaches. It's really more running and cardio. When I'm at home I'll go run around the neighborhood from time to time, a lot of cardio and keeping up on the weights.'

I think I know my rb1/2

# ? Jun 6, 2015 12:15

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

Who is their rb3 I gotta get in on that

# ? Jun 6, 2015 17:17

Azhais: Feb 5, 2007; Switchblade Switcharoo

pangstrom posted:

Who is their rb3 I gotta get in on that

We all know Bobby Rainey is going to have the most points again

# ? Jun 6, 2015 17:18

Ty1990: Apr 22, 2011

Maybe I'm crazy but I've justified it in my own mind. I traded Alshon Jeffery (12th round keeper) for Adrian Peterson (1st round keeper). 12 team league.

I pick 8th in my keeper league draft, and the majority of top backs were kept. The best back there for me at 8 would *maybe* be Alfred Morris. Backs like AP are extremely hard to get your hands on in a keeper league, and I realize that while Alshon at a 12 is much better overall value, I can build my WR core through the fantasy draft. As it stands, I kept AP (1) and Latavius Murray (16), so I can probably go WR in rounds 2 and 3. Tons of WR hit the draft this year (Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, AJ Green, Jordy Nelson, TY Hilton, Randall Cobb just to name the better ones), so if things work out I'll be able to snag one of them and go from there.

# ? Jun 6, 2015 21:10

Fight Club Sandwich: Apr 29, 2006; you want a piece of me???

old dog child posted:

BREAKING NEWS

BUT WAIT! THE MASTER DENIES THE APPRENTICE

I think I know my rb1/2

why would thunder try to be like lightning

# ? Jun 6, 2015 21:37

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Ty1990 posted:

Maybe I'm crazy but I've justified it in my own mind. I traded Alshon Jeffery (12th round keeper) for Adrian Peterson (1st round keeper). 12 team league.

I pick 8th in my keeper league draft, and the majority of top backs were kept. The best back there for me at 8 would *maybe* be Alfred Morris. Backs like AP are extremely hard to get your hands on in a keeper league, and I realize that while Alshon at a 12 is much better overall value, I can build my WR core through the fantasy draft. As it stands, I kept AP (1) and Latavius Murray (16), so I can probably go WR in rounds 2 and 3. Tons of WR hit the draft this year (Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, AJ Green, Jordy Nelson, TY Hilton, Randall Cobb just to name the better ones), so if things work out I'll be able to snag one of them and go from there.

A Mistake Was Made.

# ? Jun 7, 2015 07:40

3 DONG HORSE: May 22, 2008; I'd like to thank Satan for everything he's done for this organization

Fight Club Sandwich posted:

why would thunder try to be like lightning

It seems like they're both trying to switch bodies.

Ty1990 posted:

Maybe I'm crazy but I've justified it in my own mind. I traded Alshon Jeffery (12th round keeper) for Adrian Peterson (1st round keeper). 12 team league.

I pick 8th in my keeper league draft, and the majority of top backs were kept. The best back there for me at 8 would *maybe* be Alfred Morris. Backs like AP are extremely hard to get your hands on in a keeper league, and I realize that while Alshon at a 12 is much better overall value, I can build my WR core through the fantasy draft. As it stands, I kept AP (1) and Latavius Murray (16), so I can probably go WR in rounds 2 and 3. Tons of WR hit the draft this year (Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, AJ Green, Jordy Nelson, TY Hilton, Randall Cobb just to name the better ones), so if things work out I'll be able to snag one of them and go from there.

How many keepers do you have? Just two? If so, I say bad trade. It might help in the short term but you're losing a really, really cheap WR2. I think you would've been better off taking fliers on RBs. Hell, if you had kept Jeffrey, there's a chance you could flip him for someone worth way more. You can't flip AP, he's too expensive and too old. You will have to spend your top picks to grab those WRs you listed, which is something that other players in your league might not have to worry about, depending on their RB keeper values.

HOWEVER, if your gamble pays off and it helps you win this year then who gives a poo poo if you're hampered the next couple. Winning is always worth it.

3 DONG HORSE fucked around with this message at 08:15 on Jun 7, 2015

# ? Jun 7, 2015 08:10

VDay: Jul 2, 2003; I'm Pacman Jones!

Fight Club Sandwich posted:

why would thunder try to be like lightning

Charles Sims is both the thunder and the lightning, the hammer and the anvil, the alpha and the omega, all praise him insha'allah.

# ? Jun 7, 2015 08:19

sourdough: Apr 30, 2012

Ty1990 posted:

Maybe I'm crazy but I've justified it in my own mind. I traded Alshon Jeffery (12th round keeper) for Adrian Peterson (1st round keeper). 12 team league.

I pick 8th in my keeper league draft, and the majority of top backs were kept. The best back there for me at 8 would *maybe* be Alfred Morris. Backs like AP are extremely hard to get your hands on in a keeper league, and I realize that while Alshon at a 12 is much better overall value, I can build my WR core through the fantasy draft. As it stands, I kept AP (1) and Latavius Murray (16), so I can probably go WR in rounds 2 and 3. Tons of WR hit the draft this year (Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, AJ Green, Jordy Nelson, TY Hilton, Randall Cobb just to name the better ones), so if things work out I'll be able to snag one of them and go from there.

I would've kept Jeffery over both AP and Latavius Murray :shrug:

You don't say how many you start, but unless it is only 1 WR, being able to snag one of the top WRs doesn't diminish Jeffery's value. Also is it any PPR?

# ? Jun 7, 2015 12:57

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Ty1990 posted:

Maybe I'm crazy but I've justified it in my own mind. I traded Alshon Jeffery (12th round keeper) for Adrian Peterson (1st round keeper). 12 team league.

I pick 8th in my keeper league draft, and the majority of top backs were kept. The best back there for me at 8 would *maybe* be Alfred Morris. Backs like AP are extremely hard to get your hands on in a keeper league, and I realize that while Alshon at a 12 is much better overall value, I can build my WR core through the fantasy draft. As it stands, I kept AP (1) and Latavius Murray (16), so I can probably go WR in rounds 2 and 3. Tons of WR hit the draft this year (Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, AJ Green, Jordy Nelson, TY Hilton, Randall Cobb just to name the better ones), so if things work out I'll be able to snag one of them and go from there.

You Done hosed Up.

"Alshon at a 12 is much better overall value" is precisely where you should have stopped. Keepers is entirely about value, just as drafting is all about maximizing your overall team performance. One player does not make a fantasy football team, and if you could have for example Antonio Brown and Alshon Jeffery as your WR1 and WR2 that would have been fantastic.

# ? Jun 7, 2015 14:00

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 16, 2024 15:40

Enforka: Dec 24, 2004

Ty1990 posted:

Maybe I'm crazy but I've justified it in my own mind. I traded Alshon Jeffery (12th round keeper) for Adrian Peterson (1st round keeper). 12 team league.

Yikes. I hate this trade. AP is 30 and you're giving up a first rounder this year AND a multi-year cheap WR1 for him. Not great value now because you lose that first rounder, and even worse a year or two from now when Jeffery is still a cheap WR1 and Peterson is probably not a top 5 pick or keeper material anymore.

Your window is now this year or the next. Murray is more of a long term building block than a guaranteed stud. I'd try to move him for another expensive "win-now" piece. Try to get a guy who is supposed to be a first or second rounder in redraft leagues. In for a penny, in for a pound.

# ? Jun 7, 2015 15:21

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Football 2015: Value Based Guessing

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