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QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

A few thoughts on merk's lynch yesterday:

As a candidate, merk was a "low burn," in which several prominent people found him suspicious, but it was not obvious he was going to be the final candidate. This fact is reinforced by the identity of the vote leader near the deadline, which twisted in several directions before finally settling on merk. I don't think scum knew merk would be lynched and strongly suspect that they were not early adopters of the case.

The first vote comes from Rarity, who is almost de facto confirmed, but whose vote carries her even closer to total confirmation. Rarity's vote largely continues her arguments from D1 (1) (2), namely that merk is misconstruing content and peddling �bullshit� (3) (4). It is a vote that seemingly goes unnoticed, except when Rarity polls Keane on the matter (4).

The reason I spend so much time on the above vote is to reassert the points mentioned in my first paragraph: merk was by no means a clear candidate and scum were probably not driving the case against him. From personal experience, I doubt scum would leave their vote flapping in the wind all day, as Rarity essentially did D2. Stubbornly sticking to an early case prevents one from guiding anyone but that candidate to the lynch. When said pressure is not reinforced by others, it can effectively be a waste of a vote and contradict scum interests. Rarity, if it is not already obvious, is almost certainly town for this reason.

Early behavior suggests one more thing to me: Scum were probably among the people who considered merk "suspicious" early, but jumped onto his bandwagon late. Though Rarity lands her vote a few hours after the thread opens, it takes almost another twenty-four hours for another player to join her (5) and it is not until the day of the deadline that a vote with any real permanence joins (6).

I unfortunately don't have much time to continue this analysis or reread the contributions from late yesterday. However, I feel good about those players (Kashuno and PMom) who tried to redirect the bandwagon toward Samfu. When town, merk's a very good player and I doubt scum would have made any attempt to save him.

# ? Aug 27, 2015 10:37

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# ? Apr 27, 2024 12:14

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

ljtrigirl posted:

I'll now say this explicitly in case people are terrible at reading between the lines.

TMM got the N1 harpoon.

##vote: TMM

TMM, response?

SirSamVimes posted:

This is easy to confirm. LJTRI, you're harpooning Pmom tonight, right? If that results in the same flavour as TNL, then TNL was killed by a harpoon.

ljtrigirl posted:

I think this is what I'm feeling then. I'll shoot PM, and we can deal with TMM tomoz if it's the same thing.

##vote lumpen

That is a profoundly bad idea because:
1.) It enables the survival of a dangerous player, who is alleged to have killed someone;
2.) It ignores any scum hunting and allows wiggle to try and wiggle out of cases via flavor arguments, and;
3.) It leaves the issue of TNL's death unresolved when it should probably be discussed.

If you don't want to lynch TMM due to the appearance of a better candidate, that is fine. He should not survive solely because the town collectively decided, "we will deal with it tomorrow." That's dumb and unproductive.

# ? Aug 27, 2015 10:56

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

QuoProQuid posted:

However, I feel good about those players (Kashuno and PMom) who tried to redirect the bandwagon toward Samfu. When town, merk's a very good player and I doubt scum would have made any attempt to save him.

Before anyone says anything: Yes, I realize that Kashuno is henceforth deceased. :V

# ? Aug 27, 2015 11:18

Lumpen: Apr 2, 2004; I'd been happy, and I was happy still. For all to be accomplished,
for me to feel less lonely,
all that remained to hope
was that on the day of my execution
there should be a huge crowd of spectators and that they should
greet me with howls of execration.; Plaster Town Cop

I'm at the airport now, going on vacation with my wife to Washington DC until Monday evening. I brought my tablet and should have wifi in the evenings, and I will do my best to post as much as I can. It may take me a bit to catch up but bear with me please.

# ? Aug 27, 2015 11:25

SirSamVimes: Jul 21, 2008; ~* Challenge *~

QuoProQuid posted:

##vote: TMM

TMM, response?

That is a profoundly bad idea because:
1.) It enables the survival of a dangerous player, who is alleged to have killed someone;
2.) It ignores any scum hunting and allows wiggle to try and wiggle out of cases via flavor arguments, and;
3.) It leaves the issue of TNL's death unresolved when it should probably be discussed.

If you don't want to lynch TMM due to the appearance of a better candidate, that is fine. He should not survive solely because the town collectively decided, "we will deal with it tomorrow." That's dumb and unproductive.

1) He is alleged to have killed a player using a one-shot vig item that ljtri claimed to give him. The fact that ljtri gave him the one shot is the entire crux of her suspicion, so even if this is true he is not capable of killing again tonight.
2) I'm not saying ignore scum hunting, I am saying do not treat "I gave him a harpoon" as confirmation that he stabbed Ninth when we have a way to confirm without a doubt that it happened.
3) No, it enables us to look into whatever other possibilities of what killed Ninth without assuming.

# ? Aug 27, 2015 11:33

Kashuno: Oct 9, 2012; Where the hell is my SWORD?; Grimey Drawer

not even gone a day and people start stealing my stuff! :ghost:

# ? Aug 27, 2015 12:02

HiipFire: Sep 1, 2013; JENNY DEATH LIVES

UPDATED

if you put a gun up to my head and told me to vote someone:
BK(will explain this when I get back from class)
or maybe Mithross(still havent really noticed much of him so he could be lurker mafia though he did say he was busy so im giving him the benefit of the doubt)

Defo Town:
Rarity

Probably town:(in no particular order):
Quoproquid
Lumpen
Keane(I'm open to the idea of a no-vote town after the mayor flip)
ljtrigirl(still think her posting seems very sincere)

Could be town:
TMM
fiery
Hal(has been lurking a lot but he seems to do that a lot with either alignments so thats nulltell for me)
SirSamVimes

Not sure yet/anymore:
Diqnol
Exakt

# ? Aug 27, 2015 12:10

HiipFire: Sep 1, 2013; JENNY DEATH LIVES

damnit I missed pmom again

still think he's town btw

# ? Aug 27, 2015 12:14

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

SirSamVimes posted:

1) He is alleged to have killed a player using a one-shot vig item that ljtri claimed to give him. The fact that ljtri gave him the one shot is the entire crux of her suspicion, so even if this is true he is not capable of killing again tonight.
2) I'm not saying ignore scum hunting, I am saying do not treat "I gave him a harpoon" as confirmation that he stabbed Ninth when we have a way to confirm without a doubt that it happened.
3) No, it enables us to look into whatever other possibilities of what killed Ninth without assuming.

SirSamVimes posted:

This is easy to confirm. LJTRI, you're harpooning Pmom tonight, right? If that results in the same flavour as TNL, then TNL was killed by a harpoon.

Your post explicitly tries to absolve TMM from today's lynch and "prove" his actions via flavor. It's a bad roundabout strategy that relies on a lot of variables working in just the right way when it would be easier to just find scum and lynch.

# ? Aug 27, 2015 12:22

Diqnol: May 10, 2010

Important information: I received a harpoon gun n1. I still have it unless it was stolen from me without my being notified. I thought it might be a trap. I now believe it functions and was given to me to kill merk.

# ? Aug 27, 2015 12:26

SirSamVimes: Jul 21, 2008; ~* Challenge *~

If we have other reasons to lynch him, then go ahead and put them out. I just don't feel "I gave him a harpoon N1 and ~someone~ stabbed TheNinthLayer" is enough of a case for a lynch though.

# ? Aug 27, 2015 12:26

SirSamVimes: Jul 21, 2008; ~* Challenge *~

Wait, you received a harpoon on the same night that LJTRI claims they gave Taste a harpoon?

Hmmmmm.

# ? Aug 27, 2015 12:27

SirSamVimes: Jul 21, 2008; ~* Challenge *~

Err, Madman that is. Too much reading the slapfight from the XCOM thread has crossed some wires and I'm sleepy.

# ? Aug 27, 2015 12:28

Diqnol: May 10, 2010

If you look, I left a breadcrumb about it early d2 to see if anyone wanted to fess up.

# ? Aug 27, 2015 12:36

Diqnol: May 10, 2010

Anyway I have some reading to do, will post again after I settle in at work.

# ? Aug 27, 2015 12:39

Pinterest Mom: Jun 9, 2009

GUISSEPPE PIZZAPIE posted:

Thinking about it, I don't mind thanking whoever sent me the Poonmaster last night

# ? Aug 27, 2015 13:21

TMMadman: Sep 9, 2003; by Fluffdaddy

Well this is a hell of a thing to wake up too this morning.

So first things first, sorry I missed the deadline on Tuesday. I spent 13 hours in my car and drove almost 400 miles. Looking back over the day, I am actually happy with where my vote was left.

Second, I did not receive a harpoon on N1. If I had, I would have dropped some kind of breadcrumb. Also, even though Kash was a claimed Mason, I would never give him a vig because he is my mortal Mafia enemy, so I would have passed it to Rarity instead. And the final point on that is that I would just step up the plate if I did fire off a vig because vigging someone is not inherently scummy. So LJ is probably right with these assumptions:

ljtrigirl posted:

The scenarios I can think of that it wouldn't be him are:
1) someone intercepted the spear I sent him N1
2) something else that involves stabbing at night can happen?

We could wait until I kill PM tonight to see what the harpoon flavor is tomorrow, but if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it might be a duck.

Third, I was a little irritated at the SSV push on Tuesday. Not because the motivation and reasons were unsound, but because I didn't like the timing of the attack. Plus, I had already figured out the double vote at that time and knew it was either the pearl or SSVs role. Seriously, did nobody really read the final D1 vote count?

EccoRaven posted:

I broke my keyboard and now my R key is broken and barely works I have to like really force it down.

Final Day 1 Votecount

Gamerofthegame (11): BK, fv, Meinberg, Kashuno, QPQ, Hal, TMM, PMom, Diqnol, merk, SamVines

GUISSEPPE PIZZAPIE/Diqnol (3): merk, BK, Samfucius, -merk, -BK, merk, -Samfucius, Lumpen, Gamer, -merk, merk, Samfucius, QPQ, SamVines, -QPQ, -SamVines, -merk

Pinterest Mom (2): LJ, SamVines
merk (2): Diqnol, -Diqnol, Diqnol, Ninth, Rarity, -Diqnol

BottleKnight (1): merk, -merk, jedit

NOTES:

Players who suck at unvoting tomorrow may find themselves wishing they were more diligent!

Players who suck at posting are encouraged to post more. They are requested to review their conscience and figure out if they would like a replacement during the night. I would love to keep you if I can but a replacement earlier is always better than later!

Yes the votecount is correct! Unless it's not! But if it's the thing you're thinking it's correct so don't bug me about it!

Flavor incoming~

I snipped the middle part of it, but you can clearly see both of SSVs votes and the part I bolded and put in italics on the bottom.

# ? Aug 27, 2015 14:10

TMMadman: Sep 9, 2003; by Fluffdaddy

Now as for who I suspect, I am still very good with my QPQ call from D2, you can see it here:

TMMadman posted:

Going back to this and the posts around it, I've been taking a closer look at QPQ and think I may have something.

We start with his case against diqnol here:

Which is basically nothing but a bunch of quotes with sniping comments and no actual arguments and it comes at a time when it feels like the diqnol train is about to leave the station for good. He says diqnol is having a meltdown and is spinning his wheels. But an hour or so later, after diqnol said the thinks gamer is scummy, we get get this post:

It's a much better looking case (without knowing the flips), but all he does is unvote diqnol and not vote gamer. Instead he leaves it out there to see what it gets, it convinces Kashuno and then QPQ starts asking diqnol what he thinks about several players with gamer among them and when diqnol states again that he thinks gamer is scum, it finally convinces QPQ to vote for gamer and he gets to say he has doubts about diqnol.

And I'll also be honest, I don't like how he came out hard against me, then backed off but continued to try and cast shade on me without actually calling me scum. It feels like he's just trying to set me up for a vote at a later time. And finally, I don't agree with his case against ljtrigirl as despite her tunneling she feels more town to me.

So I'm going to ##vote QPQ

I am going to stick with this case and I think merks words only reinforce it when he said this:

merk posted:

QPQ is also very good scum which I learned in the last game, so please don't forget that. I didn't give his scum game enough credit in the Tournament game, and it blinded me a bit.

Also, I really don't like that QPQs post here:

QuoProQuid posted:

This post also sticks out to me, but it's just a continuation of TMM's constant belittling of himself and his reads. It's a nonsense post, completely out of step with the mood and goals of the town, and serves only to shield TMM from accusations about his own fallibility.

Lynch merk today, then TMM tomorrow.

He is clearly just looking to set me up and I don't like it. Not to mention, for all the poo poo he's said about me saying nothing, take a look at this post he made earlier today right before his vote on me.

QuoProQuid posted:

A few thoughts on merk's lynch yesterday:

As a candidate, merk was a "low burn," in which several prominent people found him suspicious, but it was not obvious he was going to be the final candidate. This fact is reinforced by the identity of the vote leader near the deadline, which twisted in several directions before finally settling on merk. I don't think scum knew merk would be lynched and strongly suspect that they were not early adopters of the case.

The first vote comes from Rarity, who is almost de facto confirmed, but whose vote carries her even closer to total confirmation. Rarity's vote largely continues her arguments from D1 (1) (2), namely that merk is misconstruing content and peddling �bullshit� (3) (4). It is a vote that seemingly goes unnoticed, except when Rarity polls Keane on the matter (4).

The reason I spend so much time on the above vote is to reassert the points mentioned in my first paragraph: merk was by no means a clear candidate and scum were probably not driving the case against him. From personal experience, I doubt scum would leave their vote flapping in the wind all day, as Rarity essentially did D2. Stubbornly sticking to an early case prevents one from guiding anyone but that candidate to the lynch. When said pressure is not reinforced by others, it can effectively be a waste of a vote and contradict scum interests. Rarity, if it is not already obvious, is almost certainly town for this reason.

Early behavior suggests one more thing to me: Scum were probably among the people who considered merk "suspicious" early, but jumped onto his bandwagon late. Though Rarity lands her vote a few hours after the thread opens, it takes almost another twenty-four hours for another player to join her (5) and it is not until the day of the deadline that a vote with any real permanence joins (6).

I unfortunately don't have much time to continue this analysis or reread the contributions from late yesterday. However, I feel good about those players (Kashuno and PMom) who tried to redirect the bandwagon toward Samfu. When town, merk's a very good player and I doubt scum would have made any attempt to save him.

This says absolutely nothing at all and provides no reads or anything useful.

My vote today goes right back to where it was yesterday

##vote QPQ

# ? Aug 27, 2015 14:17

TMMadman: Sep 9, 2003; by Fluffdaddy

And just to make it clear, I think QPQ swerved the vote off Diqnol and onto gamer. So right now QPQ is my #1 suspect followed by Diqnol. I also still suspect Hal as well and he hasn't really posted anything lately to make me change my mind.

I'm not sure what to think of the QPQ moving to and fro on Samfu. It could be scumbuddy covering for scumbuddy again, but it seems too obvious and therefore I'm more inclined to lean town for Samfu, but for now I'll put him in the 4th spot on my list.

# ? Aug 27, 2015 14:20

Pinterest Mom: Jun 9, 2009

Maybe we can give the pearl to Keane and let him vote :unsmith:

# ? Aug 27, 2015 14:28

Diqnol: May 10, 2010

TMMadman posted:

And just to make it clear, I think QPQ swerved the vote off Diqnol and onto gamer. So right now QPQ is my #1 suspect followed by Diqnol. I also still suspect Hal as well and he hasn't really posted anything lately to make me change my mind.

I'm not sure what to think of the QPQ moving to and fro on Samfu. It could be scumbuddy covering for scumbuddy again, but it seems too obvious and therefore I'm more inclined to lean town for Samfu, but for now I'll put him in the 4th spot on my list.

That's a pretty bad reading imo, why don't you spell out where you think he did that and why you think I needed any help

# ? Aug 27, 2015 14:59

Diqnol: May 10, 2010

HiipFire posted:

Probably town:(in no particular order):
Quoproquid
Lumpen

Could be town:
TMM
fiery
SirSamVimes

Not sure yet/anymore:
Exakt

I'd like you to expand on all of these players. They all stuck out to me on your list. I agree with none of those reads.

# ? Aug 27, 2015 15:01

CCKeane: Jan 28, 2008; my shit posts don't die, they multiply

Pinterest Mom posted:

Maybe we can give the pearl to Keane and let him vote

That'd be cool.

# ? Aug 27, 2015 15:06

ljtrigirl: Aug 13, 2015; I am the Cheese! I am the best character on the show! I am better than both the Salami and the Bologna combined!

fiery_valkyrie posted:

LJ why would you give away a vig instead of using it yourself? Especially when you have been so persistent about PMom being scum but haven't been able to get him lynched?

This is a dumb question. Because I can't use them myself, except apparently by giving them to the NK and then picking them up immediately. I'm basically a gunsmith for VKs. I only have 1 harpoon left to give, but after that, I'm basically nothing.

# ? Aug 27, 2015 16:40

ljtrigirl: Aug 13, 2015; I am the Cheese! I am the best character on the show! I am better than both the Salami and the Bologna combined!

QuoProQuid posted:

I unfortunately don't have much time to continue this analysis or reread the contributions from late yesterday. However, I feel good about those players (Kashuno and PMom) who tried to redirect the bandwagon toward Samfu. When town, merk's a very good player and I doubt scum would have made any attempt to save him.

I completely disagree with this conclusion. I think that it was pretty obvious that Merk was getting lynched that last hour. Even PMom said so while voting Sam. I think at least one mafia probably switched to Sam at the end there, trying to get credit for not wanting to lynch merk but knowing it was going to happen anyway. What's better than getting town merk mislynched? Not being on him when it happens.

# ? Aug 27, 2015 16:44

ljtrigirl: Aug 13, 2015; I am the Cheese! I am the best character on the show! I am better than both the Salami and the Bologna combined!

GUISSEPPE PIZZAPIE posted:

Important information: I received a harpoon gun n1. I still have it unless it was stolen from me without my being notified. I thought it might be a trap. I now believe it functions and was given to me to kill merk.

That definitely wan't me.

Why do you think it functions? Isn't broken or backfiring guns a thing in mafia?

# ? Aug 27, 2015 16:47

ljtrigirl: Aug 13, 2015; I am the Cheese! I am the best character on the show! I am better than both the Salami and the Bologna combined!

I don't know that I believe you? I was explicitly told that I successfully left it on your porch. I guess a bus driver could have switched TMM and diq, but then where did the kill go?

# ? Aug 27, 2015 16:50

Diqnol: May 10, 2010

ljtrigirl posted:

That definitely wan't me.

Why do you think it functions? Isn't broken or backfiring guns a thing in mafia?

Yeah, originally I did think it was a backfiring gun. It might well be. However, given that merk was town, it makes more sense to me that it was given to me to shoot him. Think about it - why would somebody give me, a person who was almost lynched the day before, a vigilante that very night? It is either boobytrapped or was given to me to kill a townie, no ifs ands or buts about it. I can actually give it away if somebody wants to take a chance or knows how to identify it because I don't plan to ever use it.

# ? Aug 27, 2015 17:04

CCKeane: Jan 28, 2008; my shit posts don't die, they multiply

OooooooOoooooOoOooooo! I am pretty sure Samfu is scccciiiuimmmmm oooOoooooOoo!

# ? Aug 27, 2015 17:08

CCKeane: Jan 28, 2008; my shit posts don't die, they multiply

Samfu and Madman oooooooOoooo so spooooooky!

# ? Aug 27, 2015 17:09

Diqnol: May 10, 2010

Also, to be clear, it is called a fishing harpoon. Is that consistent, by chance?

# ? Aug 27, 2015 17:09

Pinterest Mom: Jun 9, 2009

Okay
##vote samfu

# ? Aug 27, 2015 17:21

ljtrigirl: Aug 13, 2015; I am the Cheese! I am the best character on the show! I am better than both the Salami and the Bologna combined!

GUISSEPPE PIZZAPIE posted:

Also, to be clear, it is called a fishing harpoon. Is that consistent, by chance?

Sort of? I'm actually a spear fisher and was told that I give out spears, but I targeted Kash last night, and he died with a harpoon. The description of the harpoon also matches what I was told about my ability.

If a bus driver switched TMM with someone on N1, they might want to come forward, because whoever they switched him with probably killed Ninth.

I'm not sure I believe TMM, but diq having a harpoon kind of throws things off for me.

The flavor talks about taking out things like octopi, swordfishes, and sharks. I'll ask Ecco.

# ? Aug 27, 2015 17:24

ljtrigirl: Aug 13, 2015; I am the Cheese! I am the best character on the show! I am better than both the Salami and the Bologna combined!

Wait. The harpoon that I have does not have the word fishing anywhere in the description, so it might be different.

# ? Aug 27, 2015 17:25

Diqnol: May 10, 2010

Did you give out more than one harpoon?

# ? Aug 27, 2015 17:29

Diqnol: May 10, 2010

I'm not a fan of flavor arguments, but do you think your flavor/role is likely unique or do you think its plausible that somebody else had your exact role?

# ? Aug 27, 2015 17:30

Mithross: Apr 27, 2011; Intelligent and bright, they explored a world that was new and strange to them. They liked it, they thought - a whole world just for them! They were dimly aware that a God had created them, was watching them; they called out to him, thanking him in a chittering language, before running off.

ljtrigirl posted:

This is a dumb question. Because I can't use them myself, except apparently by giving them to the NK and then picking them up immediately. I'm basically a gunsmith for VKs. I only have 1 harpoon left to give, but after that, I'm basically nothing.

My role works the same, although I give out the hammers.

# ? Aug 27, 2015 18:42

Mithross: Apr 27, 2011; Intelligent and bright, they explored a world that was new and strange to them. They liked it, they thought - a whole world just for them! They were dimly aware that a God had created them, was watching them; they called out to him, thanking him in a chittering language, before running off.

GUISSEPPE PIZZAPIE posted:

Did you give out more than one harpoon?

She already claimed n1: TMM, n2: Kashuno (which she then picked up when kash was killed)

Unless someone else comes forward and claims they have a harpoon, I think a busdriver is the most likely explanation. Especially since Diqnol just barely missed being lynched, making him a prime target to try to bus into the night kill.

# ? Aug 27, 2015 18:52

Samfucius: Sep 8, 2010; And if you gaze long enough into a nest, the nest will gaze back into you.

ljtrigirl posted:

Wait. The harpoon that I have does not have the word fishing anywhere in the description, so it might be different.

I cannot fathom why we would need different flavors of harpoons.

Also ##vote diqnol

# ? Aug 27, 2015 19:09

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# ? Apr 27, 2024 12:14

Diqnol: May 10, 2010

Samfucius posted:

I cannot fathom why we would need different flavors of harpoons.

Also ##vote diqnol

Are you a lyncher or are you just not reading along?

# ? Aug 27, 2015 19:10

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Traditional Games > The Game Room > The Pearl of Port Lourde - A Game of Mafia

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