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A few thoughts on merk's lynch yesterday: As a candidate, merk was a "low burn," in which several prominent people found him suspicious, but it was not obvious he was going to be the final candidate. This fact is reinforced by the identity of the vote leader near the deadline, which twisted in several directions before finally settling on merk. I don't think scum knew merk would be lynched and strongly suspect that they were not early adopters of the case. The first vote comes from Rarity, who is almost de facto confirmed, but whose vote carries her even closer to total confirmation. Rarity's vote largely continues her arguments from D1 (1) (2), namely that merk is misconstruing content and peddling “bullshit” (3) (4). It is a vote that seemingly goes unnoticed, except when Rarity polls Keane on the matter (4). The reason I spend so much time on the above vote is to reassert the points mentioned in my first paragraph: merk was by no means a clear candidate and scum were probably not driving the case against him. From personal experience, I doubt scum would leave their vote flapping in the wind all day, as Rarity essentially did D2. Stubbornly sticking to an early case prevents one from guiding anyone but that candidate to the lynch. When said pressure is not reinforced by others, it can effectively be a waste of a vote and contradict scum interests. Rarity, if it is not already obvious, is almost certainly town for this reason. Early behavior suggests one more thing to me: Scum were probably among the people who considered merk "suspicious" early, but jumped onto his bandwagon late. Though Rarity lands her vote a few hours after the thread opens, it takes almost another twenty-four hours for another player to join her (5) and it is not until the day of the deadline that a vote with any real permanence joins (6). I unfortunately don't have much time to continue this analysis or reread the contributions from late yesterday. However, I feel good about those players (Kashuno and PMom) who tried to redirect the bandwagon toward Samfu. When town, merk's a very good player and I doubt scum would have made any attempt to save him.
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 10:37 |
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# ? Apr 27, 2024 07:47 |
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ljtrigirl posted:I'll now say this explicitly in case people are terrible at reading between the lines. ##vote: TMM TMM, response? SirSamVimes posted:This is easy to confirm. LJTRI, you're harpooning Pmom tonight, right? If that results in the same flavour as TNL, then TNL was killed by a harpoon. ljtrigirl posted:I think this is what I'm feeling then. I'll shoot PM, and we can deal with TMM tomoz if it's the same thing. That is a profoundly bad idea because: 1.) It enables the survival of a dangerous player, who is alleged to have killed someone; 2.) It ignores any scum hunting and allows wiggle to try and wiggle out of cases via flavor arguments, and; 3.) It leaves the issue of TNL's death unresolved when it should probably be discussed. If you don't want to lynch TMM due to the appearance of a better candidate, that is fine. He should not survive solely because the town collectively decided, "we will deal with it tomorrow." That's dumb and unproductive.
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 10:56 |
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QuoProQuid posted:However, I feel good about those players (Kashuno and PMom) who tried to redirect the bandwagon toward Samfu. When town, merk's a very good player and I doubt scum would have made any attempt to save him. Before anyone says anything: Yes, I realize that Kashuno is henceforth deceased. :V
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 11:18 |
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I'm at the airport now, going on vacation with my wife to Washington DC until Monday evening. I brought my tablet and should have wifi in the evenings, and I will do my best to post as much as I can. It may take me a bit to catch up but bear with me please.
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 11:25 |
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QuoProQuid posted:##vote: TMM 1) He is alleged to have killed a player using a one-shot vig item that ljtri claimed to give him. The fact that ljtri gave him the one shot is the entire crux of her suspicion, so even if this is true he is not capable of killing again tonight. 2) I'm not saying ignore scum hunting, I am saying do not treat "I gave him a harpoon" as confirmation that he stabbed Ninth when we have a way to confirm without a doubt that it happened. 3) No, it enables us to look into whatever other possibilities of what killed Ninth without assuming.
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 11:33 |
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not even gone a day and people start stealing my stuff!
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 12:02 |
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UPDATED if you put a gun up to my head and told me to vote someone: BK(will explain this when I get back from class) or maybe Mithross(still havent really noticed much of him so he could be lurker mafia though he did say he was busy so im giving him the benefit of the doubt) Defo Town: Rarity Probably town:(in no particular order): Quoproquid Lumpen Keane(I'm open to the idea of a no-vote town after the mayor flip) ljtrigirl(still think her posting seems very sincere) Could be town: TMM fiery Hal(has been lurking a lot but he seems to do that a lot with either alignments so thats nulltell for me) SirSamVimes Not sure yet/anymore: Diqnol Exakt
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 12:10 |
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damnit I missed pmom again still think he's town btw
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 12:14 |
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SirSamVimes posted:1) He is alleged to have killed a player using a one-shot vig item that ljtri claimed to give him. The fact that ljtri gave him the one shot is the entire crux of her suspicion, so even if this is true he is not capable of killing again tonight. SirSamVimes posted:This is easy to confirm. LJTRI, you're harpooning Pmom tonight, right? If that results in the same flavour as TNL, then TNL was killed by a harpoon. Your post explicitly tries to absolve TMM from today's lynch and "prove" his actions via flavor. It's a bad roundabout strategy that relies on a lot of variables working in just the right way when it would be easier to just find scum and lynch.
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 12:22 |
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Important information: I received a harpoon gun n1. I still have it unless it was stolen from me without my being notified. I thought it might be a trap. I now believe it functions and was given to me to kill merk.
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 12:26 |
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If we have other reasons to lynch him, then go ahead and put them out. I just don't feel "I gave him a harpoon N1 and ~someone~ stabbed TheNinthLayer" is enough of a case for a lynch though.
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 12:26 |
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Wait, you received a harpoon on the same night that LJTRI claims they gave Taste a harpoon? Hmmmmm.
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 12:27 |
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Err, Madman that is. Too much reading the slapfight from the XCOM thread has crossed some wires and I'm sleepy.
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 12:28 |
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If you look, I left a breadcrumb about it early d2 to see if anyone wanted to fess up.
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 12:36 |
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Anyway I have some reading to do, will post again after I settle in at work.
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 12:39 |
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GUISSEPPE PIZZAPIE posted:Thinking about it, I don't mind thanking whoever sent me the Poonmaster last night
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 13:21 |
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Well this is a hell of a thing to wake up too this morning. So first things first, sorry I missed the deadline on Tuesday. I spent 13 hours in my car and drove almost 400 miles. Looking back over the day, I am actually happy with where my vote was left. Second, I did not receive a harpoon on N1. If I had, I would have dropped some kind of breadcrumb. Also, even though Kash was a claimed Mason, I would never give him a vig because he is my mortal Mafia enemy, so I would have passed it to Rarity instead. And the final point on that is that I would just step up the plate if I did fire off a vig because vigging someone is not inherently scummy. So LJ is probably right with these assumptions: ljtrigirl posted:The scenarios I can think of that it wouldn't be him are: Third, I was a little irritated at the SSV push on Tuesday. Not because the motivation and reasons were unsound, but because I didn't like the timing of the attack. Plus, I had already figured out the double vote at that time and knew it was either the pearl or SSVs role. Seriously, did nobody really read the final D1 vote count? EccoRaven posted:I broke my keyboard and now my R key is broken and barely works I have to like really force it down. I snipped the middle part of it, but you can clearly see both of SSVs votes and the part I bolded and put in italics on the bottom.
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 14:10 |
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Now as for who I suspect, I am still very good with my QPQ call from D2, you can see it here:TMMadman posted:Going back to this and the posts around it, I've been taking a closer look at QPQ and think I may have something. I am going to stick with this case and I think merks words only reinforce it when he said this: merk posted:QPQ is also very good scum which I learned in the last game, so please don't forget that. I didn't give his scum game enough credit in the Tournament game, and it blinded me a bit. Also, I really don't like that QPQs post here: QuoProQuid posted:This post also sticks out to me, but it's just a continuation of TMM's constant belittling of himself and his reads. It's a nonsense post, completely out of step with the mood and goals of the town, and serves only to shield TMM from accusations about his own fallibility. He is clearly just looking to set me up and I don't like it. Not to mention, for all the poo poo he's said about me saying nothing, take a look at this post he made earlier today right before his vote on me. QuoProQuid posted:A few thoughts on merk's lynch yesterday: This says absolutely nothing at all and provides no reads or anything useful. My vote today goes right back to where it was yesterday ##vote QPQ
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 14:17 |
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And just to make it clear, I think QPQ swerved the vote off Diqnol and onto gamer. So right now QPQ is my #1 suspect followed by Diqnol. I also still suspect Hal as well and he hasn't really posted anything lately to make me change my mind. I'm not sure what to think of the QPQ moving to and fro on Samfu. It could be scumbuddy covering for scumbuddy again, but it seems too obvious and therefore I'm more inclined to lean town for Samfu, but for now I'll put him in the 4th spot on my list.
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 14:20 |
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Maybe we can give the pearl to Keane and let him vote
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 14:28 |
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TMMadman posted:And just to make it clear, I think QPQ swerved the vote off Diqnol and onto gamer. So right now QPQ is my #1 suspect followed by Diqnol. I also still suspect Hal as well and he hasn't really posted anything lately to make me change my mind. That's a pretty bad reading imo, why don't you spell out where you think he did that and why you think I needed any help
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 14:59 |
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HiipFire posted:Probably town:(in no particular order): I'd like you to expand on all of these players. They all stuck out to me on your list. I agree with none of those reads.
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 15:01 |
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Pinterest Mom posted:Maybe we can give the pearl to Keane and let him vote That'd be cool.
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 15:06 |
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fiery_valkyrie posted:LJ why would you give away a vig instead of using it yourself? Especially when you have been so persistent about PMom being scum but haven't been able to get him lynched? This is a dumb question. Because I can't use them myself, except apparently by giving them to the NK and then picking them up immediately. I'm basically a gunsmith for VKs. I only have 1 harpoon left to give, but after that, I'm basically nothing.
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 16:40 |
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QuoProQuid posted:I unfortunately don't have much time to continue this analysis or reread the contributions from late yesterday. However, I feel good about those players (Kashuno and PMom) who tried to redirect the bandwagon toward Samfu. When town, merk's a very good player and I doubt scum would have made any attempt to save him. I completely disagree with this conclusion. I think that it was pretty obvious that Merk was getting lynched that last hour. Even PMom said so while voting Sam. I think at least one mafia probably switched to Sam at the end there, trying to get credit for not wanting to lynch merk but knowing it was going to happen anyway. What's better than getting town merk mislynched? Not being on him when it happens.
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 16:44 |
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GUISSEPPE PIZZAPIE posted:Important information: I received a harpoon gun n1. I still have it unless it was stolen from me without my being notified. I thought it might be a trap. I now believe it functions and was given to me to kill merk. That definitely wan't me. Why do you think it functions? Isn't broken or backfiring guns a thing in mafia?
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 16:47 |
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I don't know that I believe you? I was explicitly told that I successfully left it on your porch. I guess a bus driver could have switched TMM and diq, but then where did the kill go?
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 16:50 |
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ljtrigirl posted:That definitely wan't me. Yeah, originally I did think it was a backfiring gun. It might well be. However, given that merk was town, it makes more sense to me that it was given to me to shoot him. Think about it - why would somebody give me, a person who was almost lynched the day before, a vigilante that very night? It is either boobytrapped or was given to me to kill a townie, no ifs ands or buts about it. I can actually give it away if somebody wants to take a chance or knows how to identify it because I don't plan to ever use it.
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 17:04 |
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OooooooOoooooOoOooooo! I am pretty sure Samfu is scccciiiuimmmmm oooOoooooOoo!
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 17:08 |
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Samfu and Madman oooooooOoooo so spooooooky!
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 17:09 |
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Also, to be clear, it is called a fishing harpoon. Is that consistent, by chance?
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 17:09 |
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Okay ##vote samfu
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 17:21 |
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GUISSEPPE PIZZAPIE posted:Also, to be clear, it is called a fishing harpoon. Is that consistent, by chance? Sort of? I'm actually a spear fisher and was told that I give out spears, but I targeted Kash last night, and he died with a harpoon. The description of the harpoon also matches what I was told about my ability. If a bus driver switched TMM with someone on N1, they might want to come forward, because whoever they switched him with probably killed Ninth. I'm not sure I believe TMM, but diq having a harpoon kind of throws things off for me. The flavor talks about taking out things like octopi, swordfishes, and sharks. I'll ask Ecco.
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 17:24 |
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Wait. The harpoon that I have does not have the word fishing anywhere in the description, so it might be different.
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 17:25 |
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Did you give out more than one harpoon?
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 17:29 |
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I'm not a fan of flavor arguments, but do you think your flavor/role is likely unique or do you think its plausible that somebody else had your exact role?
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 17:30 |
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ljtrigirl posted:This is a dumb question. Because I can't use them myself, except apparently by giving them to the NK and then picking them up immediately. I'm basically a gunsmith for VKs. I only have 1 harpoon left to give, but after that, I'm basically nothing. My role works the same, although I give out the hammers.
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 18:42 |
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GUISSEPPE PIZZAPIE posted:Did you give out more than one harpoon? She already claimed n1: TMM, n2: Kashuno (which she then picked up when kash was killed) Unless someone else comes forward and claims they have a harpoon, I think a busdriver is the most likely explanation. Especially since Diqnol just barely missed being lynched, making him a prime target to try to bus into the night kill.
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 18:52 |
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ljtrigirl posted:Wait. The harpoon that I have does not have the word fishing anywhere in the description, so it might be different. I cannot fathom why we would need different flavors of harpoons. Also ##vote diqnol
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 19:09 |
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# ? Apr 27, 2024 07:47 |
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Samfucius posted:I cannot fathom why we would need different flavors of harpoons. Are you a lyncher or are you just not reading along?
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# ? Aug 27, 2015 19:10 |