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DancingShade
Jul 26, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

OctaMurk posted:

Hundreds of Iranian troops to join Hezbollah as linebreaker troops for SAA offensive into northwestern Syria with Russian ISR, airstrikes, advisors -Reuters article today

Time to find out if Russia and Iran are the surprise ghost army that gets out of the ship to save Minas Tirith. But considering that no plan has been presented for lasting victory after the conventional phase, I don't see this ending well for anyone at all

Well if you level everything and kill everything that moves can that count as a victory?

It worked for me in MOO2.

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Rukeli
May 10, 2014

DancingShade posted:

Well if you level everything and kill everything that moves can that count as a victory?

It worked for me in MOO2.

That's how the U.S. defeated Japan, so yes.

Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich
Hezbollah troops? You're making GBS threads me. This is really the Cold War all over again with Russia reaping the benefits of funding/supporting covert groups in the ME. On the other hand it's hundreds so I can't see the impact.

pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

Ba-dam ba-DUMMMMMM

Vladimir Putin posted:

Hezbollah troops? You're making GBS threads me. This is really the Cold War all over again with Russia reaping the benefits of funding/supporting covert groups in the ME. On the other hand it's hundreds so I can't see the impact.

Force multiplier a la when US Special Forces embeds with a local militia to boost their combat capabilities. When I'm not phone posting I'd like to write a big post about Hizballah and their unconventional warfare expertise.

OctaMurk
Jun 21, 2013

Vladimir Putin posted:

Hezbollah troops? You're making GBS threads me. This is really the Cold War all over again with Russia reaping the benefits of funding/supporting covert groups in the ME. On the other hand it's hundreds so I can't see the impact.

I dont think I was particularly clear, I mean that we will have hundreds of Iranian troops in addition to Hezbollah troops. They should prove superior to any rebels, man for man.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

quote:

On October 1, RUssian Defence Ministry stated it had deployed over 50 planes and helicopters to Syria: "“The air group was deployed on very short notice. It was possible because we had most of the materiel and ammunition ready at our depot in Tartus. We only had to move our aircraft and deliver some extra equipment”"

I read that as, "We've been planning this for months." Why otherwise would that base have the equipment needed to support these types of operation at this scale?

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

OctaMurk posted:

I dont think I was particularly clear, I mean that we will have hundreds of Iranian troops in addition to Hezbollah troops. They should prove superior to any rebels, man for man.

Hezbollah has already taken quite a black eye from the fighting in Syria. They took a lot of losses and recently fell back closer to the Lebanese border to catch their breath. Iranian troops have also been on the ground for years fighting directly. This is more of the same, not anything unprecedented.

Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011

I think I heard something a year or two ago how Hezbollah had taken such losses in Syria (they've been there a long time) that they've resorted to recruiting people as young as 16 to make up for the loss of their experienced fighters.

Freezer
Apr 20, 2001

The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.
Anyone knows if the latest of Russian armaments are being used in Syria, or are they just clearing out their 80s-90s legacy inventory?

Freezer fucked around with this message at 16:43 on Oct 1, 2015

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747

Freezer posted:

Anyone knows of the latest of Russian armaments are being used in Syria, or are they just clearing out their 80s-90s legacy inventory?

The Su-34 they sent to Latakia are probably their most modern thing in Syria right now.

fade5
May 31, 2012

by exmarx
An interesting size comparison:

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




fade5 posted:

An interesting size comparison:

Oh, Kurdistan turns out to be way bigger than I thought of it before.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

fade5 posted:

An interesting size comparison:


Isn't that kind of disingenuous since most of the big grey ISIS part in the middle is practically uninhabitable and claiming it is notional at best?

Miltank
Dec 27, 2009

by XyloJW
Yes. At least two thirds of ISIS territory in Syria is uninhabitable desert.

fade5
May 31, 2012

by exmarx

Murgos posted:

Isn't that kind of disingenuous since most of the big grey ISIS part in the middle is practically uninhabitable and claiming it is notional at best?
A little bit. It's meant to be a pure land area comparison, to put the size of the areas people are fighting over into a more familiar and relatable perspective.

Funky See Funky Do
Aug 20, 2013
STILL TRYING HARD
How much control does Daesh exercise over that area? Can they prevent or seriously impede movement over that uninhabitable desert? Or do they just claim control and nobody uses the land enough to bother contesting it?

Rukeli
May 10, 2014

fade5 posted:

An interesting size comparison:


drat, I didn't know the refugee crisis was that bad.

Funky See Funky Do posted:

How much control does Daesh exercise over that area? Can they prevent or seriously impede movement over that uninhabitable desert? Or do they just claim control and nobody uses the land enough to bother contesting it?

They are in full control of the land, and rule over about ten million people.

Rip Testes
Jan 29, 2004

I never forget a face, but in your case I'll be glad to make an exception.
Russia gave the US 60 minutes to clear out before they started bombing.

LA Times posted:

U.S., Russia open talks to avoid conflict in the skies over Syria


Pentagon officials are set to open their first round of military-to-military talks with Russian counterparts Thursday to avoid conflicts between their air forces in the skies over Syria.


With jets from both countries actively carrying out airstrikes over Syria, the talks will address an urgent need to divvy up the airspace to avoid a potentially deadly accident, Air Force Lt. Gen. Robert Otto told reporters Thursday.


According to the Pentagon, the Russians on Wednesday gave U.S. forces only an hour's notice before launching their first round of airstrikes in Syria. A Russian general delivered the message by showing up at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad and telling defense officials there that the U.S. needed to clear airspace above Syria.


Defense Secretary Ashton Carter called that move an "unprofessional drop-in."

Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich
They are such assholes but you have to admire the bravado.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
They're really Putin one over on us. Can't say I'm too Vlad about it.

(sorry?)

Mc Do Well
Aug 2, 2008

by FactsAreUseless

Volkerball posted:

Nobody in congress requested that intervention be put up for a vote, and there were a lot of republicans who supported it on the grounds of preventing casual chemical weapons use. As far as conservatives supporting Obama goes, that was a high water mark. But Obama punted it anyways.

If Obama intervened without Congressional approval we'd have people attacking him for unilaterally starting World War 3 once the Russians intervened against our intervention- I don't blame him for 'punting'. We're on the road to a major power confrontation unless someone is willing to take charge of history.

tsa
Feb 3, 2014

Rip Testes posted:

Russia gave the US 60 minutes to clear out before they started bombing.

Should have made it 5 minutes for super irony.

tsa
Feb 3, 2014

McDowell posted:

If Obama intervened without Congressional approval we'd have people attacking him for unilaterally starting World War 3 once the Russians intervened against our intervention- I don't blame him for 'punting'. We're on the road to a major power confrontation unless someone is willing to take charge of history.

A US intervention would have probably turned out exactly the same except we'd be blamed for everything. US in the country would have drawn in the same extremists except they'd have an even easier time of recruiting.

Rip Testes
Jan 29, 2004

I never forget a face, but in your case I'll be glad to make an exception.
If the US isn't flying over western Syria and the Russians are saying clear out of eastern Syrian airspace, if the US complies (which it appears they are negotiating to do so in some form) how likely would we see direct targeting of ISIS by Russian jets? Are the Russians saying clear out so they can actually strike ISIS?

Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich
I don't know why the Russians are acting like such pricks. They don't have the resources for it. Their economy is in tatters in general and doubly so because of oil prices they're fighting another war in Ukraine. They're GDP is like the level of Italy or some other small European country. You don't see Italy bombing some country and telling the U.S. 1 hour before to clear out.

Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich

Rip Testes posted:

If the US isn't flying over western Syria and the Russians are saying clear out of eastern Syrian airspace, if the US complies (which it appears they are negotiating to do so in some form) how likely would we see direct targeting of ISIS by Russian jets? Are the Russians saying clear out so they can actually strike ISIS?

Oh great Eastern/western zones of control. This is the Cold War all over again.

sharknado slashfic
Jun 24, 2011

Vladimir Putin posted:

Oh great Eastern/western zones of control. This is the Cold War all over again.

I sort of figured there'd be some tacit agreement that the Russians would "intervene" in Syria and the US would shift to operating solely in Iraq.

Mc Do Well
Aug 2, 2008

by FactsAreUseless

tsa posted:

A US intervention would have probably turned out exactly the same except we'd be blamed for everything. US in the country would have drawn in the same extremists except they'd have an even easier time of recruiting.

Whatever you need to tell yourself at night so you don't have to think about how close we are to the brink. ISIL wouldn't matter much if in 2013 you had Russia helping Assad shoot down US cruise missiles and drones.

Bait and Swatch
Sep 5, 2012

Join me, Comrades
In the Star Citizen D&D thread

McDowell posted:

Whatever you need to tell yourself at night so you don't have to think about how close we are to the brink. ISIL wouldn't matter much if in 2013 you had Russia helping Assad shoot down US cruise missiles and drones.

And the brink you're referring to is?

Svartvit
Jun 18, 2005

al-Qabila samaa Bahth
It's easy to just focus on the military aspect of what the Russians are doing but the real impact was political. It will be a lot harder to find a political solution down the line now that the regime has been bolstered. A lot of energy has been invested into shaping that end-game and much of it has suddenly gone to waste. The solution will now probably certainly be a military one whereas an eventual political solution actually seemed within possible reach just a few days ago.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

tsa posted:

A US intervention would have probably turned out exactly the same except we'd be blamed for everything. US in the country would have drawn in the same extremists except they'd have an even easier time of recruiting.

Yeah, our failure was predestined and in no way the fault of poor leadership and planning for a war we rushed into instead of properly planning an exit strategy :allears:

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747

Vladimir Putin posted:

They're GDP is like the level of Italy or some other small European country.

Russia wishes it had Italy's GDP. At least Italy has a nominal GDP above two trillion dollars, the same can't be said of Russia.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Vladimir Putin posted:

I don't know why the Russians are acting like such pricks. They don't have the resources for it. Their economy is in tatters in general and doubly so because of oil prices they're fighting another war in Ukraine. They're GDP is like the level of Italy or some other small European country. You don't see Italy bombing some country and telling the U.S. 1 hour before to clear out.

The obvious answer is that we tend to underestimate what nations are capable of. We had people earlier arguing that the US couldn't establish a no fly zone if it wanted to given budget constraints. Then all of a sudden, they've started a massive bombing campaign that stretches throughout both Iraq and Syria. People said Assad couldn't hold out, that Russia and Iran couldn't keep up their level of support, but all these factors have continued if not escalated. Don't make lowball claims about what a country can or can't afford to do, especially when an unaccountable tyrant is involved. They can do pretty much whatever they want for as long as they want with little to no consequence.

fool of sound
Oct 10, 2012

Bait and Swatch posted:

And the brink you're referring to is?

What he posts about every night, Baity, total nuclear annihilation.

Rukeli
May 10, 2014
Video reportedly showing an SU-25 downed over Hama (pilot ejects): https://www.facebook.com/roissya24/videos/1613612342235478/

Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich
So reports say that Russia is essential bombing the rebels that the U.S. supports. This is more or less a proxy war or even one step closer to direct conflict since Russia itself is doing the bombing.

I think the U.S. is also kind of handcuffed because there's not much we can do. What are we supposed to do provide SAMs so they can shoot down Russian planes?

Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich

Rukeli posted:

Video reportedly showing an SU-25 downed over Hama (pilot ejects): https://www.facebook.com/roissya24/videos/1613612342235478/

Already? Russia needs to start working on stealth technology ASAP.

Dusty Baker 2
Jul 8, 2011

Keyboard Inghimasi

Rukeli posted:

Video reportedly showing an SU-25 downed over Hama (pilot ejects): https://www.facebook.com/roissya24/videos/1613612342235478/

I didn't see it crash or see the ejection unless it was that small explosion. Are there any other sources on this? Or am I just wrong and the pilot did eject and I'm just not seeing it?


e: here's a Youtube version of it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzOf9p08HK0

Dusty Baker 2 fucked around with this message at 18:56 on Oct 1, 2015

Lum_
Jun 5, 2006
That wasn't a plane going down, that was a plane shooting air-to-ground rockets.

Or, as the Russian caption says, "So noisy, these Arabs. I have no idea what they babble."

(page claims to be Russia-24 but it's fake - Russian media companies tend to prefer VK to Facebook)

Lum_ fucked around with this message at 19:01 on Oct 1, 2015

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Rukeli
May 10, 2014

Vladimir Putin posted:

So reports say that Russia is essential bombing the rebels that the U.S. supports. This is more or less a proxy war or even one step closer to direct conflict since Russia itself is doing the bombing.


As long as Russia isn't arming forces who fight the U.S. directly, it's not considered a proxy war between Russia and the U.S. yet.

It will be if the U.S. is going to continue arming Syrian rebels who fight Russians...


Lum_ posted:

That wasn't a plane going down, that was a plane shooting air-to-ground rockets.

Or, as the Russia-24 (a state-owned news network) caption says, "So noisy, these Arabs. I have no idea what they babble."

Ah... my bad.

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