AFL 2016 - May The Fyfe Be With You - The Something Awful Forums

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pkid: Jan 30, 2005; I was raised on the dairy, BITCH!

Chairchucker posted:

Oh yeah, I was gonna ask, is there a way to do this using a computer and internet radio?

Yeah you can but it's a bit of a pain in the rear end to work out because the radio tends to be a tad earlier than the TV coverage. Although with internet radio that isn't always the case.

# ? Mar 28, 2016 22:49

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# ? May 27, 2024 08:11

Solemn Sloth: Jul 11, 2015; Baby you can shout at me,
But you can't need my eyes.

Usually there's a delay of at least a couple of seconds between digital radio and television but watching the game on Monday it was almost perfect.

Solemn Sloth fucked around with this message at 23:19 on Mar 28, 2016

# ? Mar 28, 2016 23:14

NPR Journalizard: Feb 14, 2008

Chairchucker posted:

Oh yeah, I was gonna ask, is there a way to do this using a computer and internet radio?

I think VLC can do this.

# ? Mar 29, 2016 00:27

pkid: Jan 30, 2005; I was raised on the dairy, BITCH!

Hey AFL data nerds (Hi Hume).
Does anyone know where to get the data on the time of goals/behinds scored?

I can't find it anywhere.

# ? Mar 29, 2016 00:57

Solemn Sloth: Jul 11, 2015; Baby you can shout at me,
But you can't need my eyes.

pkid posted:

Hey AFL data nerds (Hi Hume).
Does anyone know where to get the data on the time of goals/behinds scored?

I can't find it anywhere.

The match centre has timestamps on their feed

http://www.afl.com.au/match-centre/2016/1/gcfc-v-ess

It includes some other crap, but Goals and Behinds are clearly labelled if you want to parse it.

# ? Mar 29, 2016 01:31

spamman: Jul 11, 2002; Chin up Tiger, There is always next season...

Afl tables publishes that data too.

Edit: For example

http://afltables.com/afl/stats/games/2016/091020160328.html#prog

# ? Mar 29, 2016 02:23

pkid: Jan 30, 2005; I was raised on the dairy, BITCH!

spamman posted:

Afl tables publishes that data too.

Edit: For example

http://afltables.com/afl/stats/games/2016/091020160328.html#prog

Awesome find, thanks.
I normally get all my stats from there but didn't even think to look at it this time around.

# ? Mar 29, 2016 02:36

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

This morning's research has been surprisingly fruitful since I didn't actually know this poo poo either and assume I'd have to scrape it like I did my historical data (from the AFL Tables site, as it happens).

But I found the SOAP API with http://arf.webservice.sportsflash.com.au/WebService.asmx works, which surprised me since I assumed they'd been locked down and you'd have to pay $$$ to Champion Data or whoever.

There's a delay on this feed apparently, which would be no good for live apps, but it's fine for my poo poo.

To get you started:

code:

GetFixture(1)

gives you the previous and next rounds and something like

code:

GetScorecard(xs:int clientId, xs:int seriesId, xs:int roundId, xs:int matchId)

for example:

code:

GetScorecard(1, 144, 1, 1)

gives you the Richmond v Carlton game including a dump of all the goals and behinds with timestamps down to the minute. I haven't tried any of the other calls yet.

Holy poo poo.

EDIT:
Ha it looks like GetLeadChart(1, 144, 1, 9) is the business if you want to build a worm chart. *Cackles emanate from wizard tower*

The Deadly Hume fucked around with this message at 02:49 on Mar 29, 2016

# ? Mar 29, 2016 02:40

gay picnic defence: Oct 5, 2009; I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

What does Champion Data charge for access out of interest?

# ? Mar 29, 2016 02:48

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

gay picnic defence posted:

What does Champion Data charge for access out of interest?

hosed if I know, I assume it's a Price On Application thing I think, (i.e. if you need to ask...)

Fair enough too, it actually takes a lot of labour and technology to pump this stuff out, especially when you're including video annotations for clubs to use. But as long as there's a free subset...

# ? Mar 29, 2016 02:52

snaeksikn: Feb 28, 2010

Seltzer posted:

So I watched my first full game which was collingwood vs sydney. It was fun but um, I think I just have more questions now. My first question, and don't take this the wrong way, how much strategy is actually involved in this sport? I know there are layers of strategy to everything but the game moves so quick and is so chaotic it seems like players have a split second to either run or find an unmarked man for a pass. Not exactly the play calling of gridiron or the formations and build up play of soccer. To me it kind of looked like a seething mass of players just colliding into eachother nonstop. Again this could just be the untrained eye, but is there deeper strategy someone could elaborate on beyond zone or man marking? Also how common are injuries it seemed like there was a serious one every 10 minutes. Lastly I was wondering if any non-irish, non-oceanic players had made a splash in the sport. I was reading about two americans who are apparently in the league but I couldn't tell if they were good or not. Also it's funny that it's two basketball players I figured we would've sent a punter over there first, the skillset seems a lot more similar.

as mentioned before its a little tricky to pick it all up on tv but teams do have distinctive playing styles which you can pick up as you watch. this is a really good breakdown of the west coast eagles defensive structures which highlights the distinctive team defense the eagles were running last year and a few teams will probably be looking to mimic this year https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIn5_TUacbI

some sides will also launch scoring attacks in different ways with some sides specialising in attacking from the centre hitouts and others being more effective at counter-attacking from half back. some sides will also prefer to set up play by playing along the boundary and other sides will have a preference to attack through the middle of the ground, and you can pick this sort of thing up fairly easily on tv.

however because you have long quarters with no time-outs, the coaches can only influence the play through use of runners, so some teams may be exposed and have their structures broken by the opposition for a quarter before the coaches can reset for the next quarter and recover. that said, teams can still throw personnel around on the field ad hoc to influence things, so for example if a forward isn't having a good game they will get him to push up the ground to touch the ball a few times and get his confidence up (the demons did this with their forwards against the dominant giants defence on the weekend, resulting in a few of their forwards getting back into the game late in proceedings and running down a 4 goal deficit to win).

for the americans, mason cox will probably play a few games this year, and jason holmes has been elevated to the saints senior list in place of a suspended player and should play a number of games as well. the irish players have had the biggest impact of any foreigners however, as gaelic football has a lot of crossover skills. a number of irish players have won all australian selection and one even won a brownlow back in 1991. it also helps that gaelic football is semi professional so it makes it easier to get the players over here, but in the grand scheme of things afl doesn't pay great money

# ? Mar 29, 2016 03:05

hiddenmovement: Sep 29, 2011; "Most mornings I'll apologise in advance to my wife."

quote:

however because you have long quarters with no time-outs, the coaches can only influence the play through use of runners, so some teams may be exposed and have their structures broken by the opposition for a quarter before the coaches can reset for the next quarter and recover.

Just wanted to point out that a very good example of this happened yesterday. After half time, the Hawks started running a lot harder and got numbers back to pressure the ball carrier as opposed to the more open style they ran in the first half, and Geelong started coughing the ball up terribly. This opened up their forward line and with quick transition through the middle removed the ongoing threat of Geelongs defensive talls mopping up every incoming ball (Puopolos over the top goals being the best examples that come to mind). Geelong was not really able to respond properly until they were able to stop and reset their structures at the 3/4 time break.

hiddenmovement fucked around with this message at 03:42 on Mar 29, 2016

# ? Mar 29, 2016 03:34

snaeksikn: Feb 28, 2010

dees are rated at the lowest payout to win this week, 1.14 to beat the dons, who are paying a round high 5.50 to give an upset.

cant wait to see how we stuff it up.

# ? Mar 29, 2016 03:34

Memento: Aug 25, 2009; Bleak Gremlin

The Deadly Hume posted:

EDIT:
Ha it looks like GetLeadChart(1, 144, 1, 9) is the business if you want to build a worm chart. *Cackles emanate from wizard tower*

You might want to check your chart mate, there's an error in the data on the very first score. HomeScore and AwayScore last number is transposed.

code:

<Event teamId="10" teamType="Away" playerId="2291" positionId="10" eventId="1">
<Player>Luke Breust</Player>
<PlayerShortName>Breust, L.</PlayerShortName>
<Position>Left Half Forward</Position>
<Team>Hawthorn</Team>
<TeamShortName>HAW</TeamShortName>
<Time>9</Time>
<ScoreType>Goal</ScoreType>
<TeamScore>6</TeamScore>
<OpponentScore>0</OpponentScore>
<HomeScore>GEE 0.0.6</HomeScore>
<AwayScore>HAW 1.0.0</AwayScore>
<Margin>6</Margin>
<MatchClock>Q1 09:00</MatchClock>
</Event>

# ? Mar 29, 2016 03:43

lotharr: Dec 24, 2003; Sorry Mark, we have no idea what's wrong with your KERS mate...

gay picnic defence posted:

What does Champion Data charge for access out of interest?

I'm not sure if it's changed in the last 7 years (I used to work for Virtualsports that produce Dreamteam/Supercoach) but the delayed API is free, the live API is paid.

Also to download a full stats dump in XML or CSV format was paid for access (quite expensive)

# ? Mar 29, 2016 03:49

Memento: Aug 25, 2009; Bleak Gremlin

lotharr posted:

Also to download a full stats dump in XML or CSV format was paid for access (quite expensive)

Not in my experience, as long as you were ok with last year's data. I asked them for a copy of it to teach myself how to use self organising maps as both a training and testing data set, and they said that was a cool idea, made me sign a contract and gave me a USB stick. This was at the end of 2014 so maybe they've changed since, but at the time as long as you had a cool use-case for it they were happy to hand it over.

# ? Mar 29, 2016 03:54

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

I just started watching a few years ago, so I'm not as knowledgeable as guys itt, but because of that I have a simpler perspective that you might give you a better general understanding. The cool thing about the game is how much teams function as a unit. And you can still feel "plays" happening. Teams seem to advance the footy in two ways. One is by taking their time kicking mark after mark to open men. Sometimes they kick it backwards, or perpendicular to the goal, so the play develops pretty slowly. This is the safer way to do it, but it allows the defense to get into position to spoil a mark and gain possession during the chaotic scramble afterwards. The positive is that it's less likely to turn the footy over, and if you do, you're better prepared to defend. When every player is taking a mark, then stopping to scan the field and find the best option to kick it to, it gives everyone time to get where they need to be.

Here's an example.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qBnEHL3qEg

Geelong spends a bit of time in the midfield while the play develops. There's a guy who runs backwards with it, a few set up handballs, and things like that. Geelong eventually settles for a weak kick inside 50 where there's 3 defenders and 1 forward. They lose that contest, but because the set up has taken so long, by the time the Fremantle player is ready to kick to move the footy in the opposite direction, Geelong is already swarming. Freo turns it over trying to get the ball out in the face of that pressure, and Geelong kicks a goal. To me, this is more of a direct attack. Put our best offensive guys in the offensive zone against your best defensive guys, and we will beat you face to face. If you can do this consistently, the game isn't likely to go well for your opponent.

The other way is hauling rear end forward by either taking marks and running once they have the footy, or by using handballs and quick possessions to keep the footy moving forward. This way seems a lot more likely to generate points, as it's way easier to find a one on one matchup inside 50 where you could look at getting a mark with a reasonably easy shot on goal, or for someone to pick up a crumb and get some space to fire a shot on goal.

Here's an example of that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07p0IADD-7I

One on one matchup inside 50 while the defense isn't set up that strongly. I'd imagine at the end of a quick run across the field. When the footy lands, there's two Roos players right there with plenty of space, because the defense hasn't gotten set up inside 50. Boomer gets the crumb, and has one man to beat to get a clean shot off on goal. Fairly easy 6 points. They found a weak spot in transition, and attacked it.

So that to me is a lot of the battle. On the one hand, you can intercept a handball or something and take off running into the offensive side of the field with less resistance, but you leave yourself vulnerable for a counter attack, and you aren't prepared to really lock the footy down inside the offensive zone, because your numbers haven't made it there. On the other, if you move in slowly, you're going to face stiffer resistance, but you are better prepared to deal with a turnover. That's a lot of what I focus on when I watch games. How quickly teams are moving the footy, and where they are moving it to? Are they attacking into the teeth of the defense, or are they trying to get cute and exploit it? And of course, from there, what is working and what isn't? It really seems to bring some logic to the chaos I think.

Of course, no matter how you look at it, as soon as someone drops a mark in traffic, it turns into a free for all.

Volkerball fucked around with this message at 04:16 on Mar 29, 2016

# ? Mar 29, 2016 04:07

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

Memento posted:

You might want to check your chart mate, there's an error in the data on the very first score. HomeScore and AwayScore last number is transposed.

code:

<Event teamId="10" teamType="Away" playerId="2291" positionId="10" eventId="1">
<Player>Luke Breust</Player>
<PlayerShortName>Breust, L.</PlayerShortName>
<Position>Left Half Forward</Position>
<Team>Hawthorn</Team>
<TeamShortName>HAW</TeamShortName>
<Time>9</Time>
<ScoreType>Goal</ScoreType>
<TeamScore>6</TeamScore>
<OpponentScore>0</OpponentScore>
<HomeScore>GEE 0.0.6</HomeScore>
<AwayScore>HAW 1.0.0</AwayScore>
<Margin>6</Margin>
<MatchClock>Q1 09:00</MatchClock>
</Event>

Huh that's weird. Haven't written the code yet and besides that's a little further down the todo list. The most important part is who scored what and when and I'd probably count the goals/behinds as they go and ignore those fields.

# ? Mar 29, 2016 04:14

snaeksikn: Feb 28, 2010

so the guy that norf traded an absurdly high draft pick for to get from hawthorn did his hamstring in the second quarter and will be out for the next 8-10 weeks. unlucky

# ? Mar 29, 2016 04:23

MysticalMachineGun: Apr 5, 2005

Frogmanv2 posted:

I think VLC can do this.

Haven't tried it myself but it would be similar to this:

http://www.lifehacker.com.au/2013/01/how-to-sync-radio-cricket-commentary-with-tv-broadcasts/

The difference being instead of plugging in a radio you would open a stream in VLC and then do the same delay technique.

# ? Mar 29, 2016 04:26

monolithburger: Sep 7, 2011

MysticalMachineGun posted:

Haven't tried it myself but it would be similar to this:

http://www.lifehacker.com.au/2013/01/how-to-sync-radio-cricket-commentary-with-tv-broadcasts/

The difference being instead of plugging in a radio you would open a stream in VLC and then do the same delay technique.

Unfortunately you need the radio to be the least delayed thing at its source, streaming radio would delay it beyond that of broadcast TV (iirc).

Also, due to AFL/Telstra bullshit you can't actually stream radio without going through the AFL website/app, there were direct links to those a couple of years back but :hurr:

Telstra am webdev.

# ? Mar 29, 2016 05:42

pkid: Jan 30, 2005; I was raised on the dairy, BITCH!

monolithburger posted:

Unfortunately you need the radio to be the least delayed thing at its source, streaming radio would delay it beyond that of broadcast TV (iirc).

Also, due to AFL/Telstra bullshit you can't actually stream radio without going through the AFL website/app, there were direct links to those a couple of years back but Telstra am webdev.

Actually the links are still there, they just changed the numbers.
I used the ones in this post last year.

http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/archive/2114433

I used to open the link in that thread and then pause my IQ box (or PVR) and get it synced up that way.

# ? Mar 29, 2016 06:11

Apolis: Mar 4, 2004

Solemn Sloth posted:

Also Buckley really looked like he wanted to loving kill Robbo on 360, and Chris Scott looked like he would have helped.

This was really great.

The Deadly Hume posted:

EDIT: The dumb website is up to date with all the match results too.

I might have asked this before but does your model take into account player selection? I have seen some that do but I guess it would be a lot more work.

# ? Mar 29, 2016 08:14

Solemn Sloth: Jul 11, 2015; Baby you can shout at me,
But you can't need my eyes.

Humes predict-o-tron 2000 looks decent for round 2 on most results if not margins. Only two I'm having second thoughts over are West Coast vs Hawthorn and Freo vs Gold Coast. Probably leaning West Coast unless the Hawks magic up some big ins, especially with Hodge now gone. Freo and Gold Coast is hard because there's a real lack of round 1 barometer for either of them. Gold Coast played a nab cup game, and Freo didn't bother turning up for the season start. Think I'll have to go with Freo at Subi but wouldn't expect it to be a 40 point win for them.

# ? Mar 29, 2016 08:27

hiddenmovement: Sep 29, 2011; "Most mornings I'll apologise in advance to my wife."

The big thing for WCE v HAW next week is whether or not Ceglar is playing. Lacking Hale and Roughy, they look limited in both attack and in the clearances and against West Coasts considerably more formidable spine I can see it going the Eagles way, even at the G.

# ? Mar 29, 2016 09:41

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

Apolis posted:

I might have asked this before but does your model take into account player selection? I have seen some that do but I guess it would be a lot more work.

No. Basically then you'd need to keep track of player stats and start thinking about their replacement value (a basketball-style stat that basically measures the score difference when a player is on the interchange compared with when they're on the field would be interesting), and as we know Aussie Rules is a fairly synergistic game with a lot of players so it's fairly hard to quantify the impact of an individual.

Crudely, I reckon you could make a decent start using fantasy points/ratings (I.e. their cost value) to measure players. Another idea would be to track how experienced each side is, which might be a bit easier to track and it seems reasonable to assume that an experienced player is going to be better at someone making their debut.

Then I'd want several seasons of historical data to test the new model against and tweak variables and all that poo poo. For instance I'm in the process of finetuning an Elo-based system so having years of match data is incredibly helpful for that. To take into account individuals coming in and out of sides, that's another order of magnitude of data to throw around, and with more variables you might end up adding more noise to the model.

Anyway, one of the principles behind my model is the best results from the least data. It gets it right about 66-68% of the time, I reckon you might eke out a couple more percent by taking into account player replacement. Still not enough to beat the bookies, if that's the aim.

I know that a travelling team is generally going to do worse than if they're playing the same team at home, and I can measure that without any issues (it's about 13 points from neutral for most sides, WA sides closer to 15 but trending downwards, 12 makes a neater number and there's very little difference from 13-15, just as long as it's about that much), so I can take that into account.

Obviously when I post my stuff I only intend it as a guide - there's a reason I've changed the choice of word I use from "prediction" to "forecast", since that puts across less certitude about "THIS IS ABSOLUTELY GONNA HAPPEN GUYS".

I basically use two measures to work out how effective the system is:
The first is how many tips it gets right (the more the better, of course), but the next step is, for all the matches where probability of the favourite winning is 70%, there should be an "upset" 30% of the time. (This is the problem I'm currently having tuning the Elo system, because the "underdogs" win too often - not by much, but enough that it bothers me.) The system is bound to get it wrong, I want to make sure it's getting it wrong as often as it says it's going to get it wrong.

# ? Mar 29, 2016 09:47

NTRabbit: Aug 15, 2012; i wear this armour to protect myself from the histrionics of hysterical women

bitches

hiddenmovement posted:

The big thing for WCE v HAW next week is whether or not Ceglar is playing. Lacking Hale and Roughy, they look limited in both attack and in the clearances and against West Coasts considerably more formidable spine I can see it going the Eagles way, even at the G.

The paper lineups suggest the Hawks could be in for a real pasting

# ? Mar 29, 2016 09:52

Paracausal: Sep 5, 2011; Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

Mark Fine and Rohan Connolly have a CH31 footy show, footyology https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r674LkamUIU

I hate Mark Fine but watching him squirm while talking makes him look kind of piteous.

# ? Mar 29, 2016 10:16

monolithburger: Sep 7, 2011

Apparently Rebecca Maddern is the new Footy Show co-host.

In other news, that large plume of black smoke is from the Big Footy server catching fire.

pkid posted:

Actually the links are still there, they just changed the numbers.
I used the ones in this post last year.

http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/archive/2114433

I used to open the link in that thread and then pause my IQ box (or PVR) and get it synced up that way.

Ah this is really handy, thanks!

# ? Mar 29, 2016 10:31

Chairchucker: Nov 14, 2006; to ride eternal, shiny and chrome

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2022

I don't know anything about Maddern, is she likely to make that dumb show watchable?

# ? Mar 29, 2016 10:41

Periphery: Jul 27, 2003; ...

The Deadly Hume posted:

A bunch of words I barely understand.

I know nothing about any of this but I find it kinda fascinating. To keep it simple could you just use the AFL player ratings rankings to work out the impacts of changing teams? Those rankings seem like they'd compress a hell of a lot of stats into one easy to access score. Would it be as simple as reversing the rankings (so Fyfe is #800 or whatever) then assigning each player a points value = to their rank (I figure the reversing makes it a bit more intuitive, but I have no idea). Then you could figure out a score against the previous weeks team with the bigger the number the greater the impact. I'm not sure how you translate that into how it impacts the forecast results though.

# ? Mar 29, 2016 10:42

Memento: Aug 25, 2009; Bleak Gremlin

Chairchucker posted:

I don't know anything about Maddern, is she likely to make that dumb show watchable?

When you stir chocolate sauce into a bowl of turds, does it suddenly make it edible?

# ? Mar 29, 2016 10:43

Chairchucker: Nov 14, 2006; to ride eternal, shiny and chrome

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2022

Memento posted:

When you stir chocolate sauce into a bowl of turds, does it suddenly make it edible?

Dunno, I'll get back to you.

# ? Mar 29, 2016 10:43

monolithburger: Sep 7, 2011

Chairchucker posted:

I don't know anything about Maddern, is she likely to make that dumb show watchable?

Supposedly was/is Cat's number 1 ticket holder....but Sam Newman is still there, so no probably not.

# ? Mar 29, 2016 10:44

Memento: Aug 25, 2009; Bleak Gremlin

Chairchucker posted:

Dunno, I'll get back to you.

It was a metaphor, please don't eat poo :ohdear:

# ? Mar 29, 2016 10:46

hiddenmovement: Sep 29, 2011; "Most mornings I'll apologise in advance to my wife."

# ? Mar 29, 2016 10:58

monolithburger: Sep 7, 2011

You probably don't want to pull that finger....

# ? Mar 29, 2016 10:59

pkid: Jan 30, 2005; I was raised on the dairy, BITCH!

Memento posted:

AFL 2017 - When you stir chocolate sauce into a bowl of turds, does it suddenly make it edible?

# ? Mar 29, 2016 11:00

pkid: Jan 30, 2005; I was raised on the dairy, BITCH!

Solemn Sloth posted:

Humes predict-o-tron 2000 looks decent for round 2 on most results if not margins. Only two I'm having second thoughts over are West Coast vs Hawthorn and Freo vs Gold Coast. Probably leaning West Coast unless the Hawks magic up some big ins, especially with Hodge now gone. Freo and Gold Coast is hard because there's a real lack of round 1 barometer for either of them. Gold Coast played a nab cup game, and Freo didn't bother turning up for the season start. Think I'll have to go with Freo at Subi but wouldn't expect it to be a 40 point win for them.

Wait, you actually think Richmond will beat Collingwood?
I hope you're right, but....

# ? Mar 29, 2016 11:01

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 27, 2024 08:11

Periphery: Jul 27, 2003; ...

pkid posted:

Wait, you actually think Richmond will beat Collingwood?
I hope you're right, but....

With the Pies losing Swan and Sidebutt and Cloke playing like it's his first season they should win. There's always a risk in playing a team the week after they get flogged like that cause they come in with something to prove.

I'm just hoping they go back to playing like poo poo the week after so the Saints can get an easy win. :getin:

# ? Mar 29, 2016 11:08

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > AFL 2016 - May The Fyfe Be With You

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