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Dark Juno
Mar 10, 2013

by zen death robot
Sorry if this has been posted before.

http://dollarsandsense.org/blog/201...dnt-listen.html

quote:

I am writing this article late on election night in my office at the University of Missouri-Kansas City, about a mile from the home in which Tom Frank grew up just over the state line in Kansas. Beginning with his famous book, What’s the Matter with Kansas, first published in 2004, Tom Frank has been warning the Democratic Party of the increasing cost it was paying by abandoning and even attacking the working class, particularly the white working class. Some political scientists tried to savage his work, pointing to Bill Clinton’s electoral success and arguing that the disaffected members of the working class were also less likely to vote. Frank returned to the theme just in time for this election with a new book – Listen, Liberal – that documents in damning, lively narrative the New Democrats’ war on the New Deal, their disdain for organized labor, and their antipathy for what they viewed as retrograde white working class attitudes.

Frank kept showing the enormous price the working class were paying as a result of the economic policies of the Republicans and the New Democrats, and the indifference to their plight by the leaders of the New Democrats. Senator Bernie Sanders consciously took up the cause of reducing surging inequality and became a hero to a broad coalition of voters, many of them fiercely opposed to the New Democrats’ embrace of Wall Street cash, policies, and arrogance. Sanders set records for small donor fundraising and generated enormous enthusiasm. Sanders knew he would face the opposition of the New Democrats, but he also found that progressive congressional Democrats would rarely support him publicly in the contest for the Party’s nomination and even union leaders sided overwhelmingly with Secretary Hillary Clinton, the New Democrats’ strongly preferred candidate.

Hillary did not simply fail to reach out to the working class voters that the New Democrats had turned their backs on for decades, she infamously attacked them as “deplorables.” This was exactly the group of potential voters that was enraged because it believed, correctly as Tom Frank keeps showing us, that the New Democrats looked down on them and adopted policies that rigged the system against the working class. Hillary’s insult confirmed their most powerful bases for their rage against her. Her insult was an early Christmas present to Trump. Her attempt to walk the insult back was doomed.

Hillary Clinton handled things so miserably that she allowed a plutocrat whose career is based on rigging the system against the working class to become the hero of the working class. That is world-class incompetence. Had she followed Tom Frank’s advice she would today be the President-elect. The real cost, however, of her failure will be enormous damage to our democracy, the safety of the world, and the damage that President Trump will do to the working class as he systematically betrays their interests.

The first test of whether the Wall Street-wing of the Democratic Party has learned any of the lessons Tom Frank tried to teach them is whether President Obama will continue with his threat to try to have the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) approved by the lame duck session of Congress. Obama, who was elected on the promise that he would stop TPP, should listen to Senators Sanders and Warren and honor his promise to the voters to stop TPP. He must begin the process of the Democrats winning back the support of the working class.

The leaders of the democratic-wing of the Democratic Party need to move forward assertively to retake control of their Party. The current head of the DNC has been exposed as part of the effort to prevent Senator Sanders from winning the nomination. She should resign tomorrow. The Clintons should cease acting as Party leaders.

A period of enormous corruption and elite fraud is coming soon as the Trump administration brings its signature characteristic – crony capitalism – to bear to control all three branches of government. Trump promises to deregulate Wall Street, appoint top supervisors chosen for their unwillingness to supervise, and appoint judges who will allow CEOs to loot with impunity. Trump promises to outdo even the savage anti-media and anti-whistleblower policies of the Obama administration. The House and Senate committee chairs will intensify their blatantly partisan use of investigations while refusing to conduct real oversight hearings revealing the elite fraud and corruption.

The progressive Senate Democrats will have to be innovative and stalwart in these circumstances to find ways to blow the whistle repeatedly on the mounting corruption. Their challenge will be to lead despite having no real institutional power. Democrats should start by doing what they should have done in 2004 – take Tom Frank’s warnings deadly seriously.

Dark Juno fucked around with this message at 15:40 on Nov 13, 2016

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LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

NEOLIBERAL SHITPOSTER

:siren:
VOTE BLUE NO MATTER WHO!!!
:siren:

punk rebel ecks posted:

It's something a lot of the anti-politically correct crowd is pushing. However, it's bullshit as Trump had less votes than Romeny. Dems lost because of a huge turnout fall for their party.

It wasn't turnout.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/796789450537861120
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/796844140784971776
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/796846348045848576

LinYutang fucked around with this message at 15:44 on Nov 13, 2016

Pollyanna
Mar 5, 2005

Milk's on them.


theflyingorc posted:

You have the least appropriate username

It's a reminder to myself to remain optimistic and to believe the morning sun. Right now, it's not really working.

Mr. Belding
May 19, 2006
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<- IS LAME-O PHOBE ->
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V

MiddleOne posted:

I never actually understood this sentiment during the primary's. Like what honestly did he do to deserve the amount of distrust he got?

I honestly think we may be beginning to see that the identity politics side of the Democratic Party will not be willing to vote for a white male ever again. Some people on this very forum have hinted at that without outright saying it.

Syfe
Jun 12, 2006


So, I've heard a lot of people blame Hillary for not exciting voters and I feel that there are things on this that have not been addressed in this thread or any other election thread that I have read on this forum.

Hillary had to do the most careful balancing act any person who has ran for president ever has, it's hard to be a woman. You're judged on your appearance, you're judged on the pitch of your voice, you're judged on how you stand, if you smile, if you smile too much or too little, if you scream or even raise your voice, if you don't wear make up, if you wear too much make up, if you interrupt, if you do really anything that somebody might tie back to the horrible stereotype of "women are shrill, naggy, irrational beings".

This is a rhetoric which I have been subject to my entire life, because even women are socialized to stigmatize other women this way. It's the most ridiculous balancing act to have to ask somebody to make, and all I hear from Democrats is "Well I wasn't impressed enough." It's easier to get people to vote in racial blocs than it is across the gender line. There are so many men who will never vote for a woman because of the things they have been taught women are, because if they say and predicate those things then it makes them and all other men more powerful. That is the promise.

So there are plenty of men, even across racial lines that didn't want to vote for Hillary. They weren't worried about what the threat of Trump meant to them, they're religious convictions and socially informed positions have told them that a woman should not hold that office, it is unholy to do so, improper and devalues men if we let it happen.

You also have women saying this because they are part of those socialized circles to say "that is not the place of a woman".

e: (Nevermind that Trump himself embodies the inverse of this, the chauvinistic pig who gets away with openly groping and grabbing women, or at least saying he does and the power of being able to do that speaks to some men.)

Syfe fucked around with this message at 16:30 on Nov 13, 2016

Kilroy
Oct 1, 2000

LinYutang posted:

It wasn't turnout.
What is your take, then? Obama won especially in 2008 off the back of the then-nascent progressive movement within the Democratic party. I don't think many politically hyper-aware progressives who voted for Obama turned around and voted for Trump, but I wouldn't be surprised if some of the people who those progressives convinced to vote Obama, did vote Trump. They still want change, after all, and Hillary Clinton certainly isn't going to bring it so maybe Trump will.

This sounds an awful lot like confirmation bias though. The lesson I am taking from this election is that the Democratic party needs to focus on economic empowerment and racial justice. Do you think otherwise? If some Obama voters supported Trump, that's not going to change my outlook substantially unless the number is really high, but maybe I'm just refusing to see the light.

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.

Huzanko posted:

People keep saying this without realizing that the point that is being made is that the DNC needs to keep supporting minority voters AND focus on economic populism. It's additive.

If you don't realize that the DNC focuses on social justice and minority voters and LGBT issues, frequently to the exclusion of all else, because it lets them be "leftist" without pissing off Wall St. I don't know what to tell you. The modern DNC are just Rockefeller Republicans.

Pollyanna posted:

I want to believe this. I know it's true, and I'll keep fighting for it. I want to have my cake and eat it too, and I don't want to have to choose. gently caress that bullshit, it's a false division and I won't stand for it.

I really hope more people realize this. It's a convenient fall back that benefits both the corporate party members as well as their well off voters.

The amusing part is that even their minority issues are all bullshit outside of the LGBT. They will pander to minority voters, but not actually do much to truly improve their situation. Where are the legislation to desegregate schools and the communities? Where is stronger affirmative action codes? Why is it that whenever "tough choices" come to cut education to balance the budget, the Democrats always cut or even close minority schools but never white ones?

There is a reason why young minority voters are far less likely to support Hillary Clinton compared to their parents. Especially young blacks.

People will crucify me for this, but it is very telling that the rich whites in the uptown and downtown vote for the same party and candidates as the working class and poor minorities in the inner city and ghettos. They really shouldn't want the same thing, and it is no surprise why a lot of these "liberal" cities and up gentrifying the living hell out of almost everyone and become playgrounds for young white professionals.

Star Man posted:

No, I think that's the answer I was looking for. And I can understand that frustration. I'd rather someone come around on something like gay rights if they thought it would make them more popular than not at all.

Like, F.W. de Klerk surprised a lot of people when he became president of South Africa and with the reputation he had as a staunch conservative, came out against apartheid and made it his top priority to end it. I think he did it because of the pressure the rest of the world was putting on South Africa, not out of the kindness of his heart.

This is also why so many people support Bernie and not Hillary. Bernie's voting record is extremely consistent, not matter what the conversation in Washington. Hillary was known to flicker amongst issues both in rhetoric and and at times policy. This is often what some people mean when they say "we don't want another politician".

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.

He got only 1,000 more votes than Romney in Wisconsin. (2016) (2012)

While Trump did have a bump in Michigan compared to Romney, Clinton lost significantly much more votes compared to Obama. (2016) (2012)

Same story for Ohio. (2016) (2012)

And Iowa. (2016) (2012)

If turnout was at or near Obama 2012 levels, then these states would have carried over and Clinton would be president.

Nate Silver seems to be drinking the Kool Aid again. Sure maybe some of the smaller rural areas flipped, but not the states as a whole. Though I will admit that things are happening in Pennsylvania and Florida.

EDIT - Someone did argue with me in another thread that the split between Dems and Republicans who stayed home would be around 50/50, which is a possibility.

punk rebel ecks fucked around with this message at 17:28 on Nov 13, 2016

Kilroy
Oct 1, 2000

punk rebel ecks posted:

Nate Silver seems to be drinking the Kool Aid again. Sure maybe some of the smaller rural areas flipped, but not the states as a whole. Though I will admit that things are happening in Pennsylvania and Florida.
Those are Good Nate tweets not Woke Nate.

Kilroy
Oct 1, 2000
Whoops I forget it's time to stop making fun of Nate Silver since he was the least wrong of anyone. Still, that wasn't him.

LeJackal
Apr 5, 2011
Lets make it simple.

This was a year where a surge of populism caused a great desire for an 'outsider' candidate.

The GOP ended up fielding Trump, which they obviously did not want to do for a while, cementing their candidate as anti-establishment. Trump made them look like chumps.

The DNC has a similarly popular candidate that aligned with their goals, but stabbed him in the back to field the ultra-establishment, ultra-insider, personally unpopular candidate.

Then everyone wants to be surprised when the votes didn't come rolling in.

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

NEOLIBERAL SHITPOSTER

:siren:
VOTE BLUE NO MATTER WHO!!!
:siren:

punk rebel ecks posted:

If turnout was at or near Obama 2012 levels, then these states would have carried over and Clinton would be president.

I'm gonna keep quoting Nate Cohn, because he's correct on this. Trump won because a central part of the Obama coalition flipped to him. Dems need to deal with that or they'll keep losing.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/796848403003150336

LinYutang fucked around with this message at 17:37 on Nov 13, 2016

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.

LinYutang posted:

I'm gonna keep quoting Nate Cohn, because he's correct on this. Trump won because a central part of the Obama coalition flipped to him. Dems need to deal with that or they'll keep losing.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/796848403003150336

I was suggesting that a lot of people of all creeds sat home. Which IMO is true to a point. However, I will concede that if Trump didn't still a portion of the white working class vote, Clinton would have won. So yes that indeed was a major factor.

Slow News Day
Jul 4, 2007

Syfe posted:

So, I've heard a lot of people blame Hillary for not exciting voters and I feel that there are things on this that have not been addressed in this thread or any other election thread that I have read on this forum.

Hillary had to do the most careful balancing act any person who has ran for president ever has, it's hard to be a woman. You're judged on your appearance, you're judged on the pitch of your voice, you're judged on how you stand, if you smile, if you smile too much or too little, if you scream or even raise your voice, if you don't wear make up, if you wear too much make up, if you interrupt, if you do really anything that somebody might tie back to the horrible stereotype of "women are shrill, naggy, irrational beings".

This is a rhetoric which I have been subject to my entire life, because even women are socialized to stigmatize other women this way. It's the most ridiculous balancing act to have to ask somebody to make, and all I hear from Democrats is "Well I wasn't impressed enough." It's easier to get people to vote in racial blocs than it is across the gender line. There are so many men who will never vote for a woman because of the things they have been taught women are, because if they say and predicate those things then it makes them and all other men more powerful. That is the promise.

So there are plenty of men, even across racial lines that didn't want to vote for Hillary. They weren't worried about what the threat of Trump meant to them, they're religious convictions and socially informed positions have told them that a woman should not hold that office, it is unholy to do so, improper and devalues men if we let it happen.

You also have women saying this because they are part of those socialized circles to say "that is not the place of a woman".

e: (Nevermind that Trump himself embodies the inverse of this, the chauvinistic pig who gets away with openly groping and grabbing women, or at least saying he does and the power of being able to do that speaks to some men.)

If you think the gender line is harder to cross than the race line, you're out of your god drat mind. While it's true that women face a lot of pressure and overall unfairness in today's society, they don't have to worry about things like getting shot by cops on a regular basis as long as they are white.

Conservative males may disapprove of women in leadership positions, but remember how they went absolutely ballistic when Obama was elected, to the point where they pledged to sabotage his presidency no matter the cost. A woman president who is white would never have it that difficult.

Typical Pubbie
May 10, 2011

Kilroy posted:

Those are Good Nate tweets not Woke Nate.

Wait, which Nate is Shook Nate? Is Good Nate Shook Nate or is Shook Nate Woke Nate?

Mr. Belding
May 19, 2006
^
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<- IS LAME-O PHOBE ->
|
V

Kilroy posted:

Whoops I forget it's time to stop making fun of Nate Silver since he was the least wrong of anyone. Still, that wasn't him.

In what way was he wrong? He said Trump had a 30% of winning. 30% odds happen every day.

Radbot
Aug 12, 2009
Probation
Can't post for 3 years!
Hillary lost because all rural whites love black people but they hate women, thus why Obama's rust belt states turned red

Radbot
Aug 12, 2009
Probation
Can't post for 3 years!
The corncob mindset in here is :sad:

ANIME AKBAR
Jan 25, 2007

afu~

LinYutang posted:

I'm gonna keep quoting Nate Cohn, because he's correct on this. Trump won because a central part of the Obama coalition flipped to him. Dems need to deal with that or they'll keep losing.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/796848403003150336

Horseshit, he offers absolutely no convincing evidence that this happened (because non exists).

Kilroy
Oct 1, 2000

Typical Pubbie posted:

Wait, which Nate is Shook Nate? Is Good Nate Shook Nate or is Shook Nate Woke Nate?
I meant Shook Nate. There is no Woke Nate afaik.

Mr. Belding posted:

In what way was he wrong? He said Trump had a 30% of winning. 30% odds happen every day.
If you say something is not likely to happen, but not out of the question either, and then it happens, that may not be 'wrong' but it is certainly not 'right'. Anyway we agree I think - I said 'less wrong' for this reason.

Venomous
Nov 7, 2011





Pollyanna posted:

It's a reminder to myself to remain optimistic and to believe the morning sun. Right now, it's not really working.

I believe in you.

WhiskeyJuvenile
Feb 15, 2002

by Nyc_Tattoo
https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/797900923020382210

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.

English please.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
Education is also a very good determinate of class.

WhiskeyJuvenile
Feb 15, 2002

by Nyc_Tattoo
seems like between education and income, income would probably be more closely associated with class

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

WhiskeyJuvenile posted:

seems like between education and income, income would probably be more closely associated with class

If anything I would say the opposite, you could be out of school and working service industry jobs and still identity yourself much more strongly as middle class even if your making a working class income (this happens quite a bit). Hell adjunct professors make nothing and would never consider themselves working class.

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 04:13 on Nov 14, 2016

Mr. Belding
May 19, 2006
^
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<- IS LAME-O PHOBE ->
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V

Kilroy posted:

I meant Shook Nate. There is no Woke Nate afaik.

If you say something is not likely to happen, but not out of the question either, and then it happens, that may not be 'wrong' but it is certainly not 'right'. Anyway we agree I think - I said 'less wrong' for this reason.

It's impossible to gauge whether he is right, but he is almost certainly far more right than every other poll aggregator. Like he said, this didn't feel like an election where one candidate had 99% odds. Likely directed at Wang the wrong.

Edit: also, 30% is pretty god damned likely. Since when is 3/10 unlikely? People in general suck at statistics, but I wouldn't take Russian Roulette lightly at 1 in 6. 3 in 10 is way worse.

Mr. Belding fucked around with this message at 04:14 on Nov 14, 2016

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Mr. Belding posted:

It's impossible to gauge whether he is right, but he is almost certainly far more right than every other poll aggregator. Like he said, this didn't feel like an election where one candidate had 99% odds. Likely directed at Wang the wrong.

I would say he was less wrong, probably since his methodology gives more leeway but at the end of the day it is an poll aggregator. On one hand he can't go against his primary way of collecting data, but one the other hand polling in general has gotten far more inaccurate (especially internationally).

Revelation 2-13
May 13, 2010

Pillbug

Unless the two variables are on the same scale, we need the standardized betas to accurately judge the difference in the size of the effect, no? Maybe they are on the same scale? However, I won't be surprised if cultural capital was a stronger predictor than economic capital.

Typical Pubbie
May 10, 2011
How do you completely untangle culture from economics? Or education from class?

There's a lot of cultural capital being expended right now to assure people that the white working class are all a bunch of irredeemable racists.

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Typical Pubbie posted:

How do you completely untangle culture from economics? Or education from class?

There's a lot of cultural capital being expended right now to assure people that the white working class are all a bunch of irredeemable racists.

Who's said anything about irredeemable? Racism is learned, therefore it can be unlearned. This is why I find it so patronizing when it's claimed that we simply must avoid hurting racists' feelings because the poor dears just can't change. Of course they can change! That's why it's right to expect them to change, and treat them like garbage when they don't. It's not like you need a college education to examine the ways in which you behave in a racist way towards other, or the ways in which you normalize and support white supremacy.

Typical Pubbie
May 10, 2011

PT6A posted:

Who's said anything about irredeemable?

The people who treat any direct outreach to rural American whites as "coddling racists."

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Typical Pubbie posted:

The people who treat any direct outreach to rural American whites as "coddling racists."

No, any outreach where their racism is simply allowed to persist is what's being called "coddling racists," because it is.

"We'll help you, but you have to stop blaming the Mexicans and the Jews for all your problems, and for gently caress sake stop whinging about affirmative action and political correctness" seems quite reasonable.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

PT6A posted:

No, any outreach where their racism is simply allowed to persist is what's being called "coddling racists," because it is.

"We'll help you, but you have to stop blaming the Mexicans and the Jews for all your problems, and for gently caress sake stop whinging about affirmative action and political correctness" seems quite reasonable.

I assume your outlining the collective dreams of the Republican Party, but that is a sure as well good way to give Trump a second term. At this point we have to create alliances even with people who "whine about affirmative action and political correctness" because otherwise the same thing is going to keep on happening.

The best way to do that is economics and the hope that with time the racial tension that exists will dissipate without an economic drive pushing it forward.

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 05:38 on Nov 14, 2016

Typical Pubbie
May 10, 2011

PT6A posted:

No, any outreach where their racism is simply allowed to persist is what's being called "coddling racists," because it is.

"We'll help you, but you have to stop blaming the Mexicans and the Jews for all your problems, and for gently caress sake stop whinging about affirmative action and political correctness" seems quite reasonable.

I don't support allowing racist ideology to persist but I also don't support being a patronizing liberal stereotype. Perhaps the truth... is in the middle.

e: Did I say middle? I meant the left.

Grognan
Jan 23, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

Typical Pubbie posted:

The people who treat any direct outreach to rural American whites as "coddling racists."

Acknowledging them as basically people with the same rights has been problematic in some of the threads in the forums. Check out that rural poverty thread for some hot takes.

Dr. Angela Ziegler posted:

I think the time for small towns in the middle of nowhere has come to an end. We need to talk about whether or not these towns should exist. If there's a way to buy out everyone in a town and just bulldoze/let nature take its course and start clumping people into ever-larger towns until there are swaths of gorgeous countryside and parks between commercial/industrial hubs of cities, that would solve many problems, such as people in need of urgent care being far from hospitals.

You could even do it voluntarily, by (at the state or county level) no longer providing services/road repair/water&sewage.

People can like their ancestral homes and their birthplace, but that doesn't give those places a right to exist.

zxqv8
Oct 21, 2010

Did somebody call about a Ravager problem?
You don't convince people to accept help, or anything else, by assaulting their world view.

Wrong or right, it's their worldview and cognitive dissonance is a hell of a thing. They'll do any sort of mental gymnastics to avoid it and ultimately reject your help, and by extension your platform.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Grognan posted:

Acknowledging them as basically people with the same rights has been problematic in some of the threads in the forums. Check out that rural poverty thread for some hot takes.

I get a feeling part large portions of the Democratic party are going to prefer flushing the entire country down the toilet (already in process) rather than compromise on identity. It is very hard to be excited about the next couple years.

Edit: Btw, 61%+ of the population of the country supports gay marriage, it isn't that you have to wind back the clock but be willing to compromise.

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 05:46 on Nov 14, 2016

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.

PT6A posted:

"We'll help you, but you have to stop blaming the Mexicans and the Jews for all your problems, and for gently caress sake stop whinging about affirmative action and political correctness" seems quite reasonable.
:psyduck:

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PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

What? Maybe you haven't noticed, but there's been a huge upswing in anti-semitism, and Steve Bannon, a huge anti-semite, is currently a probable candidate for a very high-ranking position in the White House.

Granted, until now, they were usually clever enough to refer to them as "globalists" or "coastal elites" but it's all basically the same lovely thing.

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