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Italian referendum turnout is apparently high, which is supposedly bad for Yes/Renzi.
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Dec 4, 2016 19:28
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Fabulous Knight posted:Only losers admit defeat! Hofer needs to demand a recount -- strongly! What a poor choice by Austrian dummies! Sad! quote:Italian referendum turnout is apparently high, which is supposedly bad for Yes/Renzi. Toplowtech fucked around with this message at 19:37 on Dec 4, 2016 |
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Dec 4, 2016 19:33
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MiddleOne posted:For an authentic Donald it has to be just "Sad" with no exclamation or punctuation. Sad
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Dec 4, 2016 19:39
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cinci zoo sniper posted:"Very low energy from Austria, Australian people. Very sad!" I think it's kinda telling of this year that I actually googled this in spite of being like 90% sure that you were making a joke.
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Dec 4, 2016 19:59
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LemonDrizzle posted:Italian referendum turnout is apparently high, which is supposedly bad for Yes/Renzi. Sort of. Turnout is about 63% in the North, about 59% in the Centre, and less than 50% (about 47%) in the South. The South is where the NO campaign got the most traction, so a lower turnout there and higher elsewhere might mean more YES votes. (Never hope. Hope is a lie.)
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Dec 4, 2016 20:41
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Regarding the italian referendum what's the win lose situation here? If the no wins Renzi gets out and the supporters of an Italian EU exit get traction? What if the yes wins, will there be actual change? I mean shouldn't Italy attack rampant fiscal evasion, or is that not such a huge problem as I'm thinking?
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Dec 4, 2016 20:59
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I'm looking forward to Van der Bellen making Austria green again.
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Dec 4, 2016 21:24
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YF-23 posted:I'm looking forward to Van der Bellen making Austria green again. Even environmentalism is a cornerstone of national socialist policies. However unlike the Führer, VDB smokes. orange sky posted:Regarding the italian referendum what's the win lose situation here? If the no wins Renzi gets out and the supporters of an Italian EU exit get traction? What if the yes wins, will there be actual change? I mean shouldn't Italy attack rampant fiscal evasion, or is that not such a huge problem as I'm thinking? Actually, it's Euro exit. The problem is Italy has a major banking crisis right now and they need stability.
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Dec 4, 2016 21:34
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Oh, but wouldn't a Euro exit gently caress the financial markets anyway? Something about the debt still being in euros while there's a different, weaker currency in the country. I don't know much, but that makes sense to me. Would they just default and take the hit?
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Dec 4, 2016 21:40
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orange sky posted:Oh, but wouldn't a Euro exit gently caress the financial markets anyway? Something about the debt still being in euros while there's a different, weaker currency in the country. I don't know much, but that makes sense to me. Would they just default and take the hit? Nobody knows but people assume the five star movement is crazy enough. There would be re-elections, a Euro referendum and the the whole shaky Euro edifice and debt would probably come crumbling down.
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Dec 4, 2016 21:45
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MiddleOne posted:I think it's kinda telling of this year that I actually googled this in spite of being like 90% sure that you were making a joke. Also for the people asking what the referendum will change it will seriously lower the power of the Italian senate and make legislating like stupidly faster. It basically end symmetrical bicamerism, now what will they do with that rest to be seen. Edit: also even if it passes, one of the change is "When a referendum is requested by more than 800,000 voters, it only requires a reduced turnout to be valid (more than half of the turnout registered in the last general election, down from the absolute majority of voter turnout in the pre-reform Constitution)." so don't believe the referendum passing can solve everything. If the no lose but later their reaction is to force start a referendum on Itaxit, it's going to be fun. Toplowtech fucked around with this message at 21:54 on Dec 4, 2016 |
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Dec 4, 2016 21:46
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Toplowtech posted:Just twit the most powerful people in the world a picture of the ecologist winner in traditional leather pants, that should confuse the gently caress out of Trump. It certainly confused the professor of economy wearing it and his supporters.
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Dec 4, 2016 21:52
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Why would Trump know or care about the Austrian presidential election, what is this
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Dec 4, 2016 22:02
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Phlegmish posted:Why would Trump know or care about the Austrian presidential election, what is this Australia is tremendously important to Trump as part of the strategy to contain Gyna. No but he probably really doesn't nor should he. Doesn't look like Europe is of much interest to him anyway. We just... just give us something to hang on to, man. The Guardian is quoting tweets saying high turnout in the referendum actually favors Renzi but this thread seems to think the opposite? Fabulous Knight fucked around with this message at 22:10 on Dec 4, 2016 |
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Dec 4, 2016 22:05
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Phlegmish posted:Why would Trump know or care about the Austrian presidential election, what is this
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Dec 4, 2016 22:04
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If the Italian referendum passes it will streamline things quite a bit at the legislative and political level. The Big One is the Senate reform, but there's also some other things. Politically speaking... If YES wins, Renzi's position gets strengthened, while several opposition parties (most notably Lega Nord and the Five-Star Movement) lose a lot of credibility. With this, it's likely Renzi will be able to complete his term and enact many economical and social reforms. If NO wins, Renzi resigns, we elect a new government in 2017, and after that it's a crapshoot.
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Dec 4, 2016 22:05
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Is there any particular reason to vote no other than 'gently caress Renzi'? I mean if you were Italian I can see it being a powerful motivators but could someone walk me through why a yes result would be bad?
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Dec 4, 2016 22:15
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Lawman 0 posted:Is there any particular reason to vote no other than 'gently caress Renzi'? Well, there's at least 50 legal scholars who say the reform removes checks and balances in the system and will enable another Mussolini.
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Dec 4, 2016 22:20
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Riso posted:Well, there's at least 50 legal scholars who say the reform removes checks and balances in the system and will enable another Mussolini. And 50 different legal scholars who said "it's a net improvement on the current situation." (Guess the political leaning of my 50 scholars and your 50 scholars  )
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Dec 4, 2016 22:28
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I'm sure there is more to it than this but it seems really weird the frustrated populist anti-establishment types have lined up to vote no to a measure which will get rid of 200 politicians and (supposedly) make it easier to do stuff.
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Dec 4, 2016 22:52
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ModernMajorGeneral posted:I'm sure there is more to it than this but it seems really weird the frustrated populist anti-establishment types have lined up to vote no to a measure which will get rid of 200 politicians and (supposedly) make it easier to do stuff. They were, but they specifically hate Renzi even more it seems.
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Dec 4, 2016 22:53
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I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!
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Exit polls are out right now, and it seems that the NO side has a massive advantage over YES, basically 60/55 to 40/45.
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Dec 4, 2016 23:04
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I Love Annie May posted:Exit polls are out right now, and it seems that the NO side has a massive advantage over YES, basically 60/55 to 40/45.
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Dec 4, 2016 23:07
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Lawman 0 posted:Is there any particular reason to vote no other than 'gently caress Renzi'? There are, not that most of the no side has enough political competence to understand that. It's a conjunction between the constitutional reform and the electoral law. The executive in Italy lives and dies on the parliament's confidence. At any time either the Chamber or the Senate may have a vote of no confidence on the government. If it passes, current government goes down and a new one has to be nominated. This is mitigated by the fact that if the chambers can't find a government they're satisfied with, it's new elections time. As you may know, Italian governments have a meidum duration of around 1 year instead of the natural 5; this setup is why, even before getting into poo poo like when the 2001 Berlusconi government deliberately sabotaged the electoral law to make Prodi's victory in 2006 short-lived. The new electoral law, the "Italicum", seeks to stabilize the executive by giving absolute majority (55% to be exact) of the chamber to the party that wins the election, party chosen by having the top 2 parties in the election go to a runoff voting round. By stripping the senate of its power to have a vote of no confidence, this would make governments fairly stable. However, the constitutional reform goes a lot further in diminishing the senate's power, basically turning it into an empty shell, without basically any kind of legislative power. The risk then is dictatorship of the majority where a party has strong control of both the legislative of the executive, except said majority is a 20-25% relative majority (the 3 top parties in Italy are around that number). Now, those musings where pointing me to a no vote around 1 year ago, except a simple observation trumps those: "The perfect is the enemy of the good". It's at least 20 loving years we talk here in Italy of the necessity of reforming our constitution, especially removing the perfectly symmetrical bicameralism; everyone, and I mean everyone, agrees that the senate shouldn't be able to make the executive die. And yet, mysteriously, every single time someone makes a serious proposal for constitutional reform there's always some excuse to shoot it down. gently caress them. It's quite clear that the 5 star movement and most of of the no side have actually no intention of doing something for the malaise that is affecting Italy. Also, first exit polls data are out. No is at +10 to +18. Goddammit Renzi, why did you have to say you'd resign if the Yes didn't pass.
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Dec 4, 2016 23:09
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ModernMajorGeneral posted:I'm sure there is more to it than this but it seems really weird the frustrated populist anti-establishment types have lined up to vote no to a measure which will get rid of 200 politicians and (supposedly) make it easier to do stuff. I keep saying this, but when the people lose trust in the political system that governs them, voting against the government itself becomes a form of protest. If nothing else we do or say has any effect on anything, let's just keep saying 'no, gently caress you' until something breaks. If you don't trust the system, what does it matter what the issue at vote is?
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Dec 4, 2016 23:10
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https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/805536299960635393
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Dec 4, 2016 23:18
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Omobono posted:There are, not that most of the no side has enough political competence to understand that. This was really helpful, thanks. 
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Dec 4, 2016 23:19
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Welp there goes Renzi.
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Dec 4, 2016 23:25
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Omobono posted:There are, not that most of the no side has enough political competence to understand that. A+ post, covers all the main points very well.
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Dec 4, 2016 23:27
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Well there we go, one more adventure to look forward to. Having a blast seeing the world going back to tribal behaviour. Thank you, USA and Russia.
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Dec 4, 2016 23:29
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Omobono posted:Also, first exit polls data are out. No is at +10 to +18. Goddammit Renzi, why did you have to say you'd resign if the Yes didn't pass. Because he's a Third Way neoliberal and hence a moron incapable of objectively assessing his own popular support?
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Dec 4, 2016 23:32
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I'd say strap yourselves in we're in for a ride but it's been bumpy for a while now. 
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Dec 4, 2016 23:33
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None of my friends own a car.
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Dec 4, 2016 23:35
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Who knew Italy had that many bankers, pseudo-intellectuals, and pseudo-financial journalists!
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Dec 4, 2016 23:37
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https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/805520882890395648 ^^ from the leader of the Lega Nord
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Dec 4, 2016 23:38
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cant wait to talk to my italian colleague tomorrow, he was already depressed about trump, though i don't know anything about this election
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Dec 4, 2016 23:41
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LemonDrizzle posted:https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/805520882890395648 Is Lega Nord connected to Movimento 5 stelle in any way? Or are they just both on the TrumPutinTrain?
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Dec 4, 2016 23:43
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Lega Nord predates 5SM, I think they're more allies of circumstance than anything else in this. Good loving luck, Italy. Someone a while ago had mentioned that the referendum failing creates a clusterfuck because there was already a half-reform done that this would complete and that this situation leaves things half-done. Can someone who knows this stuff talk about that?
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Dec 4, 2016 23:44
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Friendly Humour posted:I keep saying this, but when the people lose trust in the political system that governs them, voting against the government itself becomes a form of protest. If nothing else we do or say has any effect on anything, let's just keep saying 'no, gently caress you' until something breaks. If you don't trust the system, what does it matter what the issue at vote is? Yeah but regardless of the actual merits or detriments of the proposal this sounded to me as an outsider to bring up tons of easy soundbites to sell to frustrated voters who are aching to protest for real change/draining the swamp/purging 200 senatorial fat cats living off the public purse. I guess people just hate renzi that much huh.
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Dec 4, 2016 23:46
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I thought Lega Nord was more old school fascists, while 5 Star was just a bunch of angry people voting angrily. They're populists, but that's aboot the only ideology they have is my impression. Everything else is up for grabs if it gets them votes.
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Dec 4, 2016 23:47
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