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Magnetic North posted:Makes me wonder if wage growth was keeping up with inflation. This random chart from google says: sort of? Yeah. Do note that's unadjusted inflation, plotted against growth in hourly wages for all workers including part-time. Not that these factors overwhelm the point (that there was a brief period during the pandemic where wages spiked above inflation but we've returned to the grinding destruction of the working class that is the norm) but more that all charts of this nature are based on selective criteria and the less honest ones can cherry-pick the criteria to make the chart show more like what they want it to show. This poo poo is complicated.
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Feb 4, 2023 00:15
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Leperflesh posted:Also raw unemployment doesn't tell you everything about people jobs. We've just had two years of high inflation while wages haven't risen to match, so people are working but poorer. Also worth exploring labor force participation since if you aren’t looking for a job you aren’t unemployed. You can have low unemployment with a bunch of dropouts. I haven’t skimmed the charts recently but my recollection is that the participation rate is climbing too.
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Feb 4, 2023 02:52
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tumblr hype man posted:Also worth exploring labor force participation since if you aren’t looking for a job you aren’t unemployed. You can have low unemployment with a bunch of dropouts. I haven’t skimmed the charts recently but my recollection is that the participation rate is climbing too. Climbing from pandemic lows, but overall declining since 2000 or so. We're currently at a 1970s rate of labor participation. 
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Feb 4, 2023 05:54
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drk posted:Climbing from pandemic lows, but overall declining since 2000 or so. We're currently at a 1970s rate of labor participation. boomers finally retiring and the population aging
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Feb 5, 2023 00:38
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Inept posted:boomers finally retiring and the population aging + a large group of working class americans died in 2020-2022. + there have been draconian measures in both legal and illegal immigration from 2017-2021 that took a few years to be felt, but cut the labor force dramatically
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Feb 5, 2023 04:37
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drk posted:Climbing from pandemic lows, but overall declining since 2000 or so. We're currently at a 1970s rate of labor participation. I prefer looking at the prime age empop... it helps to control for some of the aging effects:  Or, at least it's something to show your rear end in a top hat uncle when he tells you nobody wants to work anymore.
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Feb 5, 2023 06:10
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I'll throw in my actual take - in large part I think recessions are psychologically driven and the fact that everyone is convinced that everyone else believes that there will be a recession drives behavior. So in that sense yeah, I think a recession is likely despite many of the underlying numbers being pretty solid around employment.Agronox posted:I prefer looking at the prime age empop... it helps to control for some of the aging effects: Neat, hadn't seen that one before. I like it. The full chart shows a sustained peak in the 1990s around 82-84%, with a slight drop off to where we are today.
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Feb 6, 2023 14:01
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:I'll throw in my actual take - in large part I think recessions are psychologically driven and the fact that everyone is convinced that everyone else believes that there will be a recession drives behavior. So in that sense yeah, I think a recession is likely despite many of the underlying numbers being pretty solid around employment. Why Minsky Matters, chapter 2, page 58, describing the basic version of Keynes' General Theory (1936): quote:We can say that recession and unemployment are caused by a decision to "not spend" -- that is, to save in the form of money. When firms see sales going down, they lay off workers. This move compounds the problem. For Keynes, the most important decision is the one made by entrepreneurs to invest because this decision is by its very nature forward-looking toward an unknowable future. As worries about future prospects rise, investment falls -- which then means lower employment and lower sales to consumers. More workers lose jobs and we are off to recession. I added this book into the long-term thread's OP when I was refreshing it last year. Quite excellent book. The above quote is just like, macro 101 though.
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Feb 6, 2023 15:38
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Macro is fake anyway
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Feb 6, 2023 15:46
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Recessions happen because capitalists take increasingly riskier behaviors until they disrupt the supply chain to the point of being able to blame the weakened supply chain instead of their own reckless behavior. Then all the other capitalists blame the hosed up supply chain too and fire a bunch of people, creating a recession. That’s my hot take on recessions. Please feel free to tell me why I’m dumb.
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Feb 6, 2023 16:16
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i mean it usually doesn't have anything to do with the supply chain, that's just kind of a right now thing
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Feb 6, 2023 16:59
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I don't foresee a recession, but I foresee an excuse for big companies to lay off tens of thousands of people while managing to consolidate power under the guise of stock buybacks and "free market." Meanwhile we'll go back to companies telling us how lucky we are to have jobs because you know a recession could hit ANY SECOND and then we'll all by eating peanut butter and onions like we were in the great depression. Antidepressant use will continue to skyrocket, which is in no way related to the ongoing nightmare that is late-stage capitalism. New Ant Man movie will break some records for....Ant Man movies. Netflix will still suck.
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Feb 6, 2023 18:14
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I have no idea if there will be a recession or not, on paper or not. I only know that everything will be more expensive, it will become harder to make ends meet, and life will be difficult for many.
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Feb 9, 2023 14:48
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Okay recession is back on the menu with cpi.
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Feb 11, 2023 05:50
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err posted:Okay recession is back on the menu with cpi. https://twitter.com/DisruptorStocks/status/1624049047576186880
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Feb 11, 2023 16:37
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They've "all" been revised higher only if you ignore all of the ones that were revised lower
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Feb 11, 2023 19:04
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it is interesting seeing people's opinions in BFC vs the CSPAM econ thread. People are looking at the same data/results but seemingly have different conclusions.
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Feb 14, 2023 20:50
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I mean, is it really meaningful to discuss technical recessions when the average American has effectively been in one since about 1978?  
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Feb 14, 2023 21:07
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Sundae posted:I mean, is it really meaningful to discuss technical recessions when the average American has effectively been in one since about 1978? Feels like less earnings power huh, not even flatline. I guess perhaps it's just stories and our conception of the 60s and 70s, maybe things weren't *that* great back in the day. But I know my grandparents seemed to be doing ok, with very little education, one person working, and blue collar jobs.
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Feb 14, 2023 21:21
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I'm gonna take a wild guess without looking it up that purchasing power doesn't include rent also "average" hourly nonmanagement nonfarm wages obviously doesn't tell a whole story
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Feb 14, 2023 22:06
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Leperflesh posted:I'm gonna take a wild guess without looking it up that purchasing power doesn't include rent Yeah it's not telling the whole story, but unless I want to go really dig and write a thesis, the best we're getting is a shitpost.
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Feb 14, 2023 22:13
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labor market remains tight, excess consumer savings over pre-pandemic levels have come down over the last year and a half but still remain elevated. the fed still has the potential to force a recession, but my personal expectation is flat growth in 2023 and any recession in 2024 but as the last 3 years have shown, even if your half-informed prognostications about the fed turn out to be right, the exogenous shocks to the market will make you nailing the fed's response pointless
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Feb 15, 2023 08:21
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No recession. Prices are higher but people are still spending money. Real estate is justifiably taking a poo poo and tech is laying people off for dumb reasons, but they're having to hire a bunch back anyway.
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Feb 23, 2023 05:59
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heh, figure you'd like this tweet from today https://twitter.com/MichaelKantro/status/1628813579209023488?s=20
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Feb 23, 2023 19:50
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pmchem posted:heh, figure you'd like this tweet from today 
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Feb 23, 2023 20:06
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pmchem posted:heh, figure you'd like this tweet from today This guy has been on point with his HOPE model. I have to believe that we would already be seeing impacts in employment (most lagging indicator) in a normal cycle though. We're in a new "living with disease/people taking multiple full time jobs" economy though, things are so goddamn strange. Maybe going to get even stranger.
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Feb 23, 2023 20:10
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A lot of bad data today https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1629139358656634881 https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1629116801127788547 err fucked around with this message at 20:36 on Feb 24, 2023 |
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Feb 24, 2023 20:33
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Took less than a month from this thread’s posting date for the tides to change, huh.
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Feb 27, 2023 16:55
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Don’t worry it’ll change again and we’ll all either look smart or dumb accordingly
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Feb 27, 2023 17:57
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I'm going to look dumb regardless
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Feb 27, 2023 18:03
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latest public-facing opinion from Bank of America (which contains what used to be Merrill Lynch): https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1630295080295596035?s=20 I think I generally agree w/ their call but 3Q is too early. 4Q if in '23, after the FY24 federal budget gets eviscerated in whatever debt-ceiling compromise is struck.
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Feb 27, 2023 21:00
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pmchem posted:.... after the FY24 federal budget gets eviscerated in whatever debt-ceiling compromise is struck. ahhh goddamnit. This is going to be such a shitshow. And honestly is making me want to get bearish again, or at least buy some insurance. Will there be any R's who will work with dems on this? Or will everyone completely capitulate to "gut anything useful out of the budget while funding the space force to fight back against the jewish space laser menace" If the latter is more than about 20-30%, I should probably get more bearish.
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Feb 27, 2023 21:12
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i personally intend to invest in Jewish space lasers it seems like a growth market
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Feb 27, 2023 21:52
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Baddog posted:ahhh goddamnit. This is going to be such a shitshow. And honestly is making me want to get bearish again, or at least buy some insurance. Conventional wisdom is that the Dems find five or six GOP who will agree to merely cutting a few million here or there to whatever safety net funds haven't already been cut to the bone. But I think there's also a real chance no one blinks and some crazy poo poo happens
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Feb 27, 2023 22:10
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February is coming to a close soon and on March 1, I plan to unpin but not close this thread. I have an idea for a March stickied poll / discussion thread (inflation related) but if anyone wants to suggest a particular topic please PM me or  . Save actual discussion of the suggested topic for the March thread or elsewhere / some other new thread though, please.
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Feb 27, 2023 23:33
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Ideas: BFC car chat thread. PYF recent purchase BFC edition. Teaching financial literacy to your kids/boomer parents/niblings.
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Feb 28, 2023 03:23
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Latest batch of data doesn't look promising, especially that manufacturing.quote:https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1630583831362437121
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Feb 28, 2023 16:13
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I wish I had something helpful to add here, but my thoughts are pretty "I read a lot of articles" level of education. The most recent one I read on Vox seems to imply what I already see firsthand, which is that companies have successfully bilked Americans as much as they can and Q1 is probably going to be the last gangbusters quarter for retail and spending in general. So I'm really not sure how much more will have to be done to tame inflation if people really are tapped out but like I said, pleb opinions...
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Feb 28, 2023 18:40
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Dik Hz posted:Ideas: I like the second one in particular because you'd probably get a wide variety of responses if people were specifically trying to put a BFC slant on their entry. the last one is an important enough topic it might just be a good new megathread? it's a little different than a thread for newbies questions or the long-term thread, since there's a 'how can I help others' aspect. but on the other hand a lot of people might just default to 'stay out of it' because they don't wanna rock the family boat (except in case of kids I guess) also got a good suggestion via PM that's gonna be a future month topic
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Mar 1, 2023 01:01
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ok, new thread for March is up: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4025922 this thread will remain open for normal discussion
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Mar 1, 2023 18:46
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