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evilwaldo posted:That Bitcoin chart is a classic bubble popping chart. Not that I disagree- but this isn't the first time it's been called a bubble and popped- only to bounce higher and repeat the cycle. It's reaching critical mass media coverage wise though, so I wouldn't be surprised if there is a dead cat bounce and a % dip that makes many people vomit. e: I own and plan to own 0 bit counts.
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Apr 11, 2013 18:01
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Shmoogy posted:Not that I disagree- but this isn't the first time it's been called a bubble and popped- only to bounce higher and repeat the cycle. It's reaching critical mass media coverage wise though, so I wouldn't be surprised if there is a dead cat bounce and a % dip that makes many people vomit. The fact that it's so hard to short plus volatile it is, I mean I think it's going to follow this boom-bust pattern forever. Basically, I would only invest in to get a thrill. And nothing more than that. I feel bad for the businesses that actually accept bitcoins. Can you imagine a major currency experiencing such fluctuations in such a short span of time? On the FX market, it's a huge, huge day if a currency should move a penny in value! Bitcoins moved over $100!!! I don't see it ever replacing the dollar or any other medium of exchange except in very extreme markets (drugs, prostitution) where the trade-off for a volatile currency is worth the anonymity. COUNTIN THE BILLIES fucked around with this message at 18:12 on Apr 11, 2013 |
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Apr 11, 2013 18:07
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That is why it will never be used as a real currency.
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Apr 11, 2013 18:19
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Arkane posted:Bought some JCP call options today, trying to pick a bottom. Popped out of this right below 15 for some slight profits. I really hated owning this, even though it was only for 48 hours.
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Apr 11, 2013 19:46
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What's the general feeling here on Facebook? Not so much the technical aspects of the stock, but more about the long-term future of this company. Doesn't it seem like sentiment has shifted massively on Facebook over the past couple of years? From loving it to reluctant usage? Granted, people are still addicted to it, it's mobile business is rapidly growing, and it did acquire Instragram (which was an apt move as it currently stands), but it just seems like the balloon is deflating rather than inflating. This study got some play today, which shows a ~30% decline in teenagers who named Facebook their favorite social media. Surely that is headed higher? http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-04-11/facebook-fatigue-among-teens-should-freak-out-marketers And I also think that Facebook is faced with a damned-if-you-damned-if-you-don't scenario here with respect to the fact that the more they try to squeeze marketing dollars out of their end-users, the more the end-users will become sick of Facebook's intrusive marketing. Even Facebook Home (a somewhat impressive OS-skin) is going to start showing full page ads that engulf your phone. It feels to me like a long-term revolt against Facebook is inevitable; and if the history of the Internet tells us anything, it's that internet properties can become ghost towns radically fast. Thoughts? What's the opposing case?
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Apr 11, 2013 22:20
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Arkane posted:What's the general feeling here on Facebook? Not so much the technical aspects of the stock, but more about the long-term future of this company.
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Apr 11, 2013 22:41
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You're side-stepping the points I brought up, though, which is that teen's preference for the site is waning considerably and that increases in ad impressions goes hand-in-hand with increases in dissatisfaction. As any of us Facebook users know, ads have become far more intrusive. With a P/E that high and new user growth slowing, where is that new revenue going to come from? Intrusive mobile ads? I think you're also limiting yourself a bit to the current social network universe by just listing Twitter and Reddit, when the reality is that if Facebook is ever going the way of the dodo (and it is just an 'if'), it'll be something that is probably not super popular right now.
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Apr 11, 2013 23:31
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Facebook does a poor job of marketing and selling that marketing to people and yes one day it will be a ghost town as soon as someone creates a better product. I look at it as a game aggregator. People go there to play games and post meme's. They really need to develop a solid search product. Anyone who can do that to combat Google will make a mint. It is meh to me. Zuck wanted to be like Google and create really cool stuff but his main product was wildly overhyped in a IPO that crushed the nascent social tech bubble. If Facebook's IPO went off there would be tons of companies following in their footsteps but when the IPO crashed it deflated the bubble and hurt the PE/VC tech industries. Money is still flowing in tech but if Facebook was a success it would be a different story. If Facebook was a successful IPO there is no doubt in my mind Twitter would have followed in 6 months time. Then we would have seen StumbleUpon and CondeNast monetizing Reddit evilwaldo fucked around with this message at 23:42 on Apr 11, 2013 |
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Apr 11, 2013 23:37
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Yeah I'm not worried about FB at all. I like what they're doing with the home screen and the direction they're going in.. They have also built a fairly entrenched moat wrt collecting information and photos that will be hard to overthrow. Plus the instagram purchase which bizarrely isn't talked about in that Bloomberg article even though I think it's probably the second most popular social medium after Twitter.
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Apr 12, 2013 00:05
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Arkane posted:You're side-stepping the points I brought up, though, which is that teen's preference for the site is waning considerably and that increases in ad impressions goes hand-in-hand with increases in dissatisfaction. As any of us Facebook users know, ads have become far more intrusive. With a P/E that high and new user growth slowing, where is that new revenue going to come from? Intrusive mobile ads? And what percentage of all fb users are teens?
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Apr 12, 2013 00:07
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I don't own or want to own any FB stock but I do really like what they've been doing as far as hiring a ton of extremely talented programmers, designers, etc. I think their end game is pretty clearly a Google-esque services company I just want to see a little more how they manage that transition before I become a believer.
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Apr 12, 2013 02:15
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evilwaldo posted:Bunch of hedge fund guys are running it up. This was regarding bitcoins- curious where you got that information evilwaldo, because if it's true it is very interesting and kinda awesome. For some reason market manipulation in normal markets means the manipulators are evil opportunistic jerks but when they are manipulating a market widely seen as silly then I guess it's kinda funny.
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Apr 12, 2013 05:48
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Wow, gold is getting crushed today. At this rate it'll close below 1500!
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Apr 12, 2013 15:40
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Amun posted:Wow, gold is getting crushed today. At this rate it'll close below 1500! yep firstadopter @firstadopter Expect weird action today as funds get margin calls on their gold exposure and get forced to liquidate their other positions (longs/shorts)
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Apr 12, 2013 15:48
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I have a question about what information is available on an individual trade. So you can obviously see (1) the stock (2) the time (3) the price (4) the amount of stock. Do any of the sophisticated platforms offer more detailed information about each individual trade (ie, which broker placed it, whether the trade was placed for a prop account or customer account)? I'm curious about how much you can ascertain about who placed a trade after reading about piggyback investing. Are these guys just mimicking successful managers based on their SEC filings or do they use real time data too?
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Apr 13, 2013 03:25
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Omerta posted:I have a question about what information is available on an individual trade. So you can obviously see (1) the stock (2) the time (3) the price (4) the amount of stock. Do any of the sophisticated platforms offer more detailed information about each individual trade (ie, which broker placed it, whether the trade was placed for a prop account or customer account)? I'm curious about how much you can ascertain about who placed a trade after reading about piggyback investing. Are these guys just mimicking successful managers based on their SEC filings or do they use real time data too? Generally trade data from the exchange will have the following information: Time Symbol Price Quantity Exchange Code (ARCA,BATS,EDGA, etc) Condition Code (Special condition codes, like EXT, OPG, CLO) Exchange Exec ID (unique identifier from the exchange) You don't get anything more that that for various reasons. You can infer to some degree from the tape where order flow is coming from; under 100 share lots is often brokerages executing clients' retail trades, you can pick out TWAP algos, large blocks can indicate who's buying/selling too, but it's all guesswork, you can't tell which brokerage/type placed any given trade. edit: I should add that the clearing firms who clears the original trades will have this information, but unless you were in cahoots with either firm on either side of the trade you wouldn't know the details of who's buying or who's selling. Similarly when you execute a trade it's not possible to tell who you traded with in the end. mik fucked around with this message at 16:12 on Apr 13, 2013 |
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Apr 13, 2013 16:01
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Are there any legality issues with a homegrown robot trader? I did a thing to learn Python and MySQL that I'm going to demo this week to see how it works and if it prints money like I'm pretty sure it won't then I don't want to go to jail. Also how fast will a homegrown robot trader lose all my money?
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Apr 13, 2013 22:37
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Pudgygiant posted:Also how fast will a homegrown robot trader lose all my money? Let it paper trade for a few months and find out.
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Apr 13, 2013 23:03
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Pudgygiant posted:Also how fast will a homegrown robot trader lose all my money? Depends on how bad your algo is- seconds, minutes, hours, days are all possibilities. The worst part about algorithms is basically that they work until they don't- so one day your trades may all be bad ones, and if you don't have a shut down set up, it might keep doing bad trades all day long.
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Apr 14, 2013 01:47
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Be sure you include fees in your plan. Those will rack up fast depending on if you're trading fast and furious
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Apr 14, 2013 02:14
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Pudgygiant posted:Are there any legality issues with a homegrown robot trader? I did a thing to learn Python and MySQL that I'm going to demo this week to see how it works and if it prints money like I'm pretty sure it won't then I don't want to go to jail. Also how fast will a homegrown robot trader lose all my money?
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Apr 14, 2013 04:01
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nelson posted:If you screw up, and this is quite possible considering some of the source code I've seen (not trading related, but a bug is a bug), you can lose all your money in seconds. And obviously you wouldn't let it write options. You're probably better off having it parse data and make recommendations on which you set transactions. cowofwar fucked around with this message at 04:23 on Apr 14, 2013 |
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Apr 14, 2013 04:20
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I'm trying to catch the tail end of volatility movement on the roughly 800 stocks I screened out for market cap and avg volume. Right now it's set up to run a volume screen 3 minutes before open, 15 minutes after open, and then every hour and add stocks to a watchlist. The trading algo will run every 3 minutes in between those and trade the watchlisted stocks based on price movement for both buying and selling. Essentially I told it to assume if it went up in the last 3 minutes assume it's going to keep going up and buy, and sell once it's hit a defined profit, loss, or hold duration. Right now it's limited to a fake $1000 and one open trade at a time so we'll see how it goes. Even if it fails as hard as I think it will it was still a great learning tool to pick up basics of Python (which is super easy even for a stupid person like me) and MySQL.
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Apr 14, 2013 10:50
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Arkane posted:You're side-stepping the points I brought up, though, which is that teen's preference for the site is waning considerably and that increases in ad impressions goes hand-in-hand with increases in dissatisfaction. As any of us Facebook users know, ads have become far more intrusive. With a P/E that high and new user growth slowing, where is that new revenue going to come from? Intrusive mobile ads?
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Apr 14, 2013 14:42
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holy poo poo, gold is down another $100 overnight!
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Apr 15, 2013 11:32
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Amun posted:holy poo poo, gold is down another $100 overnight! The bitcoin liquidation is spilling over into other markets.
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Apr 15, 2013 12:59
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We had two straight weeks of lovely macro data and the first real sell off happens in gold. Love it
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Apr 15, 2013 15:41
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fougera posted:We had two straight weeks of lovely macro data and the first real sell off happens in gold. Love it There is a lot of buzz that QE is going to end soon and nobody wants to get caught holding gold when that happens.
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Apr 15, 2013 16:11
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Cheesemaster200 posted:There is a lot of buzz that QE is going to end soon and nobody wants to get caught holding gold when that happens. That would be the markets rather than gold. Every stoppage of QE has been met by a selloff in the markets. What we are seeing is a coordinated effort by the BOJ, ECB, and Fed to knock people out of 'alternative currencies' like Bitcoin and Gold. Is it a coincidence that both were hit within a week of one another? If you are long the broader markets I would hedge your positions right now. If you are not following Edward Hugh on Facebook you should. This was a post last night The current situation in the global financial markets is preoccupying. Investors seem to be basically moving around three misconceptions. a) That Mario Draghi can "backstop" the Euro. b) That the Bank of Japan can generate 2% inflation on a sustainable basis. c) That China's growth rate will not now steadily reduce as seen historically in other emerging markets, starting notably with Japan and Italy in the 1960s. My main concern is that we are in "all or nothing" plays, and it is not clear what will happen when the irreality of these expectations becomes manifest. evilwaldo fucked around with this message at 16:39 on Apr 15, 2013 |
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Apr 15, 2013 16:29
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evilwaldo posted:What we are seeing is a coordinated effort by the BOJ, ECB, and Fed to knock people out of 'alternative currencies' like Bitcoin and Gold. Is it a coincidence that both were hit within a week of one another? Right now, the total number of bitcoins in circulation is about 11,000,000. Even at the most generous price ever attributed to it by its proponents, say $300 USD per coin, that's a total monetary base of $3.3 billion USD. That's it. Compare that to say, the amount of gold reserves an private holdings, which right now is at about 30,000 tonnes. Which puts the base at over a trillion. If you think that Bitcoins are at all on the agenda of the world's central bank meetings, then, well 
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Apr 15, 2013 17:02
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No, I am pretty sure you don't want to be in gold if QE stops. Equities will surely take a hit on the news, but you have to remember that a decent economic outlook and an improved Federal fiscal situation will be a precursor to ending it. People will still want yields and nobody is going to want to be in anything exposed to interest rate risk (bonds) or the revaluation of the dollar (commodities/FX).
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Apr 15, 2013 17:03
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bam thwok posted:Right now, the total number of bitcoins in circulation is about 11,000,000. Even at the most generous price ever attributed to it by its proponents, say $300 USD per coin, that's a total monetary base of $3.3 billion USD. That's it. Bitcoins were actually used a way to circumvent capital controls in Cyprus with the company opening a Bitcoin ATM at the very peak. While the total number may be small the price rise and use as a way to circumvent capital controls scared a lot of people. It is not the total base but the way it was used. Just like people who use it to pay for drugs. Cheesemaster200 posted:No, I am pretty sure you don't want to be in gold if QE stops. The problem with the decent economic outlook and improved Federal fiscal situation is that neither have been seen. Economic data over the past two weeks has not been strong and while we may see a first quarter bump that is likely to be the effect of inventory restocking. Europe is still in a recession and Japan is literally playing with fire. The 3 main central banks have gone 'all in' with their monetary policy. As Edward Hugh posted, it will be a huge challenge for all three of their hopes to work out. You should be hedged appropriately. evilwaldo fucked around with this message at 17:36 on Apr 15, 2013 |
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Apr 15, 2013 17:32
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Cheesemaster200 posted:There is a lot of buzz that QE is going to end soon Thats the dumbest thing Ive ever heard
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Apr 15, 2013 17:33
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:Thats the dumbest thing Ive ever heard QE cannot stop. I have made this point before, if the Fed stops backstopping the mortgage market and rates begin to rise who wants to get caught holding the 30 year bonds at 3%? The long end of the mortgage market will become a literal bloodbath unlike anything we have ever seen in the world.
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Apr 15, 2013 17:40
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Whats wrong with holding a 30 year bond at 3%, even if interest rates go up? I mean, when you buy a bond -- you see the yield on it right there.
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Apr 15, 2013 17:42
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FlashBangBob posted:Whats wrong with holding a 30 year bond at 3%, even if interest rates go up? I mean, when you buy a bond -- you see the yield on it right there. Why hold something at 3% when you can now get 4 or 5% on a current bond? By holding that bond you are losing out on interest and to compensate the price will fall causing the yield to rise in order to attract people to purchase the bond. Once yields rise expectations will be baked into the curve about how high rates will rise. This will serve to depress prices further.
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Apr 15, 2013 17:45
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I'm really not familiar with bonds, so pardon my newbie logic. I see whats happening here, help me make the full macro connection, if you could. If I buy a $10000, 30 year bond at 3%, thats great, I'd be making 3% total interest on it (at the end of the 30 year period I believe?) Great so that'd be $10300 in 30 years. However if I can get a current bond at 4%, I'd be making $10400 over the course of the bond, I'd like to see that extra $100. So I'd sell the current bond, but no one wants to buy a 3% bond if they can get a 4% one right now. So I lower my price on the bond to something like $9950, take the $50 "discount" hit and buy back in with a fresh $10000 at 4%. The problem, you are saying, is that the discount on that bond is going to continue to rise, and there's someone on the back end of that bond that's going to be taking the hit as rates go up. The bigger issue, that you are trying to point out, is that the Fed is the one buying all these bonds, and if the value of these bonds go to poo poo, the Fed goes bankrupt or something?
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Apr 15, 2013 17:54
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FlashBangBob posted:I'm really not familiar with bonds, so pardon my newbie logic. I see whats happening here, help me make the full macro connection, if you could. The Fed won't go bankrupt but the do have to report their holdings and income to the Treasury. They could theoretically just not mark their positions to market but everyone with a calculator will be able to figure out that they are underwater on their positions and it would undermine confidence in the Fed if they keep buying these bad bonds. If they stop buying, well, there has to be a buyer for that bond somewhere and they will want to be compensated for the risk of holding a low interest rate bond in a rising interest rate environment.
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Apr 15, 2013 18:03
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FlashBangBob posted:I'm really not familiar with bonds, so pardon my newbie logic. I see whats happening here, help me make the full macro connection, if you could. Except you applied the interest rate over 30 years not per year. The end values are 24560 at 3% and 33130 at 4%. A difference of 8570 of interest you don't get. Your 10000 bond at 3% is probably worth around 7500-8500 at 4%, just guessing there are calculators for the calculation.
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Apr 15, 2013 18:16
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FlashBangBob posted:If I buy a $10000, 30 year bond at 3%, thats great, I'd be making 3% total interest on it (at the end of the 30 year period I believe?) Sort of. The interest rate is actually backed out of the market price of the bond. In this example, you'd actually be paying (assuming it's a zero coupon) $41,198.67 [100000 / (1.03)^3] for the bond, which would pay you $100,000 in 2043 dollars upon maturity. If rates rise to 4% your bond will only be worth $30,831.87, a loss of $10,366.8. Basically, what happens is the same thing that happens with anything else you might buy: you feel pain because it's going down in value. edit: oh, it's only a $10,000 bond. You get the point. Amun fucked around with this message at 18:24 on Apr 15, 2013 |
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Apr 15, 2013 18:22
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