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The Landstander posted:Haha, I thought a handful of CT progressives found a way to take over Connecticut for Lieberman for laughs. Did they get bored? Yeah, they officially retired it after he left the Senate. Naturally, he never changed his registration from being a Democrat.
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Nov 5, 2013 23:59
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The Post has some early exit polls from Virginia.quote:PARTY — Nearly four in 10 voters identify as Democrats in early exit poll results for the Virginia governor’s race. Just over three in 10 identify as Republicans or independents. If they hold, these early numbers would mark a big departure from the 2009 Virginia exit polls in which Republicans outnumbered Democrats by four percentage points, 37 to 33 percent. In the 2012 election, Democrats outnumbered Republicans in Virginia by seven points, 39 to 32 percent. The racial demographics are also closer to 2012 than 2009.
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Nov 6, 2013 00:07
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Polls about to close. Ken Cuccinelli is still all:
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Nov 6, 2013 00:08
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Amused to Death posted:Well, on one hand Godspeed CT for Lieberman, on the other hand, apparently we technically have near 30 parties. Too many people voted for Malloy under WFP so the Republicans ended up becoming the top line party without winning a single statewide election or House seat.
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Nov 6, 2013 00:09
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Yeah, probably the biggest election in Florida today is mayor of St. Petersburg, then you have your typical city council and municipal referendums and such. And elections like that are technically "non-partisan" so you wouldn't know who the Republican or Democrat is if you just walk in without any idea who the candidates are.
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Nov 6, 2013 00:10
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UltimoDragonQuest posted:You should have voted on the Working Families Party line. Not an option for the local elections. But I did in 2010 for Malloy because hey, why not, and look what happens! 
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Nov 6, 2013 00:15
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De Nomolos posted:Polls about to close. Ken Cuccinelli is still all: What time do they close over there? 7?
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Nov 6, 2013 00:24
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NYT also has exit polls out of VA, and the narrative continues to plod forth -quote:About 54 percent said they were very worried about the nation’s economy, and another third were somewhat worried. About 41 percent of voters strongly disapproved of the job President Obama is doing; 12 percent more somewhat disapproved. http://www.nytimes.com/news/election-2013/2013/11/05/virginia-exit-poll-mixed-on-candidates-sour-on-economy/
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Nov 6, 2013 00:28
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I just finished voting in Arlington, VA. My polling place was not busy at all, but this is my first governor's race, so I only have presidential elections to compare it to. -1 for Cooch either way.
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Nov 6, 2013 00:28
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The Entire Universe posted:What time do they close over there? 7? Yes, and things look good for turnout in McAullife leaning zones. The only worry is if the Tea Party and rural turnout is really amped too, or if initial impressions and exit polls were unrepresentative or misleading.
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Nov 6, 2013 00:31
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DOOP posted:I was able to vote for school board, town councilpeople, and judge retentions. Nothing too meaningful considering I voted absentee and live half a state away. Yeah, off-year elections really drag sometimes. New York had a load of ballot initiatives, but I got to vote for my Mayor (1 candidate), my county supervisor (1 candidate), my Board of Elections commissioner (1 Candidate), and 2 state Supreme Court seats (2 candidates). In other words, no competitive races. Everyone was kind of just there. I live in a smallish city, so everyone votes in one place. I go to sign in, have the poll worker confirm that I live in Ward 1, and then have her hand me a reference card, and point me toward the Ward 3 ballots. Everyone was just going through the motions.
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Nov 6, 2013 00:35
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I made a special separate thread for tonight with a list of races, poll closing times and resources at the top of it, so we can sort of TV/IV it there and not have to answer those questions again every page hopefully.
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Nov 6, 2013 00:37
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Kwik posted:Yeah, off-year elections really drag sometimes. New York had a load of ballot initiatives, but I got to vote for my Mayor (1 candidate), my county supervisor (1 candidate), my Board of Elections commissioner (1 Candidate), and 2 state Supreme Court seats (2 candidates). In other words, no competitive races. Everyone was kind of just there. I live in a smallish city, so everyone votes in one place. I go to sign in, have the poll worker confirm that I live in Ward 1, and then have her hand me a reference card, and point me toward the Ward 3 ballots. Everyone was just going through the motions. You mean you aren't absolutely gripped by Prop 4? quote:The proposed amendment to section 1 of article 14 of the Constitution would authorize the Legislature to settle longstanding disputes between the State and private entities over ownership of certain parcels of land in the town of Long Lake, Hamilton County. In exchange for giving up its claim to disputed parcels, the State would get land to be incorporated into the forest preserve that would benefit the forest preserve more than the disputed parcels currently do. Shall the proposed amendment be approved?
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Nov 6, 2013 00:37
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serewit posted:NYT also has exit polls out of VA, and the narrative continues to plod forth - I would like to meet some of these neutral to tea party people.
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Nov 6, 2013 01:38
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Hey, I really like Prop 4. Prop, uhm, 5, with the mining, not so happy about.
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Nov 6, 2013 01:43
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If Christie wins over party pariah Buono with this margin tonight while simultaneously flipping no Senate seats to his party, that'll be a rather interesting instance of weak party power in a country where the parties have moved to significantly strengthen their power in the last several decades. It seems like it takes the coincidental collapse of machine politics and a probably unique case of personality politics to make that happen. The question is if its reproducible.
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Nov 6, 2013 05:11
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It's the opposite of a collapse of machine politics. There are three huge Democratic machines that defected to Christie and actively worked against Buono.
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Nov 6, 2013 05:40
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Jessica Ehrlich suspended her campaign, pretty much making it clear sailing for Alex Sink to win the Democratic nomination for FL-13. Last night the supposedly non-partisan St. Petersburg mayor's race (St. Pete makes up a large chunk of FL-13) saw the Rick Scott endorsed not-Republican Mayor Bill Foster get clobbered by Charlie Crist endorsed totally-not-a-Democrat Rick Kriseman. It's the first time an incumbent ever lost re-election since 1993, and I'm not sure when the last time a not-Democrat won the seat over a not-Republican. Those reading the tea leaves probably shouldn't make too much of this when it comes to the upcoming FL-13 special election or Florida governor's race next year; this mayor's race really was all about local politics, and Foster went down in flames over the city's horrible handling of demolishing and rebuilding St. Petersburg's iconic pier.
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Nov 6, 2013 18:36
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Ballz posted:Rick Scott endorsed not-Republican Mayor Bill Foster Haha I forgot about that. I would have completely flipped my poo poo if Rick Scott endorsed me, I can't imagine how that could have been anything other than the kiss of death for Foster's re-election campaign.
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Nov 6, 2013 18:44
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Former NFL lineman/current Rep. Jon Runyan (R) of the New Jersey 3rd is retiring. This is a really weird district in a lot of ways: it's basically two wholly separate suburban areas (the outer Philly suburbs and the central part of the shore) separated by 40 miles of protected wildlife and military installations in the middle of the state, and while most of the district is ancestrally Republican and Jim Saxton was in the seat forever essentially unopposed, there was a Democrat between Saxton and Runyan that got whacked in 2010 and Obama did carry the current configuration twice. Diane Allen, who would be by far the best Republican recruit, is already out, and there is the potential for the Ocean and Burlington Republicans to start feuding over who they want to run here.
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Nov 6, 2013 18:56
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jeffersonlives posted:Former NFL lineman/current Rep. Jon Runyan (R) of the New Jersey 3rd is retiring. This is a really weird district in a lot of ways: it's basically two wholly separate suburban areas (the outer Philly suburbs and the central part of the shore) separated by 40 miles of protected wildlife and military installations in the middle of the state, and while most of the district is ancestrally Republican and Jim Saxton was in the seat forever essentially unopposed, there was a Democrat between Saxton and Runyan that got whacked in 2010 and Obama did carry the current configuration twice. Diane Allen, who would be by far the best Republican recruit, is already out, and there is the potential for the Ocean and Burlington Republicans to start feuding over who they want to run here. Wow this seems like a good sign for Dems. He would've been one of the first seats to flip if the Dems have a wave election 2014. He's only 39 years old so he must have seen some TERRIBLE internal polling. Kim Jong Il posted:It's the opposite of a collapse of machine politics. There are three huge Democratic machines that defected to Christie and actively worked against Buono. Yup. everything Christie has "accomplished" as governor including his reelection last night is with the blessing of the criminals who control the NJ democratic party. mcmagic fucked around with this message at 19:08 on Nov 6, 2013 |
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Nov 6, 2013 19:05
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jeffersonlives posted:Former NFL lineman/current Rep. Jon Runyan (R) of the New Jersey 3rd is retiring. This is a really weird district in a lot of ways: it's basically two wholly separate suburban areas (the outer Philly suburbs and the central part of the shore) separated by 40 miles of protected wildlife and military installations in the middle of the state, and while most of the district is ancestrally Republican and Jim Saxton was in the seat forever essentially unopposed, there was a Democrat between Saxton and Runyan that got whacked in 2010 and Obama did carry the current configuration twice. Diane Allen, who would be by far the best Republican recruit, is already out, and there is the potential for the Ocean and Burlington Republicans to start feuding over who they want to run here. Is there a strong Democratic front-runner to jump in, maybe the Dem who lost in 2010?
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Nov 6, 2013 19:07
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mcmagic posted:Wow this seems like a good sign for Dems. He would've been one of the first seats to flip if the Dems have a wave election 2014. He's only 39 years old so he must have seen some TERRIBLE internal polling. Runyan was not being beaten in a midterm (and neither is Frank LoBiondo if that's your next prediction). In 2012, running as a freshman while Obama carried the seat by 4 and the Democrats dumped a shitload of money behind Shelley Adler, Runyan cruised by 9. I think the stated reasons are probably right here: he's got young kids. Ballz posted:Is there a strong Democratic front-runner to jump in, maybe the Dem who lost in 2010? No, John Adler is dead. His wife ran for the seat in 2012 with strong institutional support and didn't come all that close. The Dem candidate currently in the race is a first term Burlington County freeholder and I don't know if the Dems will do a lot better unless they go a celebrity candidate route (which would probably be Carl Lewis), they just don't hold a lot of local offices here. oldfan fucked around with this message at 19:13 on Nov 6, 2013 |
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Nov 6, 2013 19:10
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jeffersonlives posted:Runyan was not being beaten in a midterm (and neither is Frank LoBiondo if that's your next prediction). In 2012, running as a freshman while Obama carried the seat by 4 and the Democrats dumped a shitload of money behind Shelley Adler, Runyan cruised by 9. I think the stated reasons are probably right here: he's got young kids. LoBiondo is just super entrenched in a way that Runyan isn't. I don't think it's controversial to say that if the Dems are taking the house in 2014 that NJ-1 will definitely flip.
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Nov 6, 2013 19:16
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mcmagic posted:LoBiondo is just super entrenched in a way that Runyan isn't. I don't think it's controversial to say that if the Dems are taking the house in 2014 that NJ-1 will definitely flip. Runyan was starting to look pretty entrenched too after 2012, and the Democratic bench of top tier candidates is much better in LoBiondo's district than Runyan's (but guys like Van Drew and Whelan won't take suicide runs at LoBiondo, to the eternal consternation of the DCCC).
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Nov 6, 2013 19:26
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jeffersonlives posted:Runyan was starting to look pretty entrenched too after 2012, and the Democratic bench of top tier candidates is much better in LoBiondo's district than Runyan's (but guys like Van Drew and Whelan won't take suicide runs at LoBiondo, to the eternal consternation of the DCCC). The key is obviously to fund some tea bagger groups in NJ to get them to primary people like Lance, Lobiando and Smith.
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Nov 6, 2013 19:31
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mcmagic posted:The key is obviously to fund some tea bagger groups in NJ to get them to primary people like Lance, Lobiando and Smith. Barring Sarah Palin moving to Atlantic City and deciding she wants to be a Congresswoman, LoBiondo would easily turn back any primary challenge, and the Democrats would not be terribly likely to beat a primary usurper of Lance or Smith in a general under the new maps.
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Nov 6, 2013 19:50
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Most of the current members of the House from NJ are well-entrenched. It would take a huge wave of some kind for an incumbent to lose. Heck, NJ even contains one of the most lopsided districts in the nation (the 10th district has a PVI of D +34 and the Democrat won 87% of the vote in 2012).
Adjunct Cheesecake fucked around with this message at 23:48 on Nov 6, 2013 |
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Nov 6, 2013 23:44
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Adjunct Cheesecake posted:Most of the current members of the House from NJ are well-entrenched. It would take a huge wave of some kind for an incumbent to lose. Heck, NJ even contains one of the most lopsided districts in the nation (the 10th district has a PVI of D +34 and the Democrat won 87% of the vote in 2012). I agree with you but sometimes these elections get nationalized and entrenched guys lose. Congress barely works 100 days a year. I guarantee you Runyan had other things on his mind besides spending time with his kids.
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Nov 6, 2013 23:57
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jeffersonlives posted:Runyan was not being beaten in a midterm (and neither is Frank LoBiondo if that's your next prediction). In 2012, running as a freshman while Obama carried the seat by 4 and the Democrats dumped a shitload of money behind Shelley Adler, Runyan cruised by 9. I think the stated reasons are probably right here: he's got young kids. I wouldn't write off Hughes entirely, although I think it's more likely he loses once or twice before before scaring LoBiondo into retirement. Van Drew's problems with Garden State Equality should make the inevitable primary with Hughes really fun. quote:No, John Adler is dead. His wife ran for the seat in 2012 with strong institutional support and didn't come all that close. The Dem candidate currently in the race is a first term Burlington County freeholder and I don't know if the Dems will do a lot better unless they go a celebrity candidate route (which would probably be Carl Lewis), they just don't hold a lot of local offices here. Yeah, it's a real weak bench despite being an Obama seat, and it moved a few points redder by replacing Cherry Hill with Brick. Still definitely winnable though. Troy Singleton seems like the best bet, although Norcross would be loath to give him up with Allen turning 65 and having already survived a cancer scare. There's also a pretty decent chance that without a Philadelphia sports hero (and blatantly dirty player, gently caress you Runyan) parachuting into the race, this has the potential for a bloody primary on the R side. Speaking of which, has anyone mentioned Al Leiter yet at all?
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Nov 7, 2013 00:05
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Kim Jong Il posted:I wouldn't write off Hughes entirely, although I think it's more likely he loses once or twice before before scaring LoBiondo into retirement. Van Drew's problems with Garden State Equality should make the inevitable primary with Hughes really fun. Anyone who would leave a cush TV Baseball broadcasting gig to run for congress is certifiable.
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Nov 7, 2013 00:07
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Kim Jong Il posted:Speaking of which, has anyone mentioned Al Leiter yet at all? Yeah I already heard that named floated by the Ocean side, probably not happening but Gilmore desperately wants a way to steal this seat from Burlington and has since Saxton retired.
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Nov 7, 2013 00:09
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Jimmy Carter's grandson, Georgia State Senator Jason Carter is going to challenge Deal for Georgia Governor next year. I'm kinda surprised by that, I really thought that Scott Holcomb was going to jump on that as he seems to have more conservative sway, but perhaps he correctly sees the race as doomed, even if Deal isn't very popular. Either way its another big name scion running.
Brigadier Sockface fucked around with this message at 12:15 on Nov 7, 2013 |
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Nov 7, 2013 12:13
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Brigadier Sockface posted:Jimmy Carter's grandson, Georgia State Senator Jason Carter is going to challenge Deal for Georgia Governor next year. I'm kinda surprised by that, I really thought that Scott Holcomb was going to jump on that as he seems to have more conservative sway, but perhaps he correctly sees the race as doomed, even if Deal isn't very popular. Either way its another big name scion running. Is Carter remembered at all for his tenure in Georgia or did his presidency wipe all of that away?
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Nov 7, 2013 15:39
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Brigadier Sockface posted:Jimmy Carter's grandson, Georgia State Senator Jason Carter is going to challenge Deal for Georgia Governor next year. I'm kinda surprised by that, I really thought that Scott Holcomb was going to jump on that as he seems to have more conservative sway, but perhaps he correctly sees the race as doomed, even if Deal isn't very popular. Either way its another big name scion running. This isn't the same Carter who discovered Romney's "47 percent" video, is it?
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Nov 7, 2013 16:56
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Ballz posted:This isn't the same Carter who discovered Romney's "47 percent" video, is it? Nope, that's James Carter IV.
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Nov 7, 2013 17:07
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ENDA is going to be a terrific wedge campaign issue for the democrats in 14 and 16 if it doesn't pass.
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Nov 7, 2013 22:19
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I previously stated that the Republican Party would not roll over and give up a House seat that they've held onto for more than 40 years. But... that's exactly what it seems they're doing with FL-13. Pinellas Sheriff Bob Gualtieri and ex-Clearwater Mayor Frank Hibbard both declined to run for the seat, leaving a nobody lobbyist as the lone GOP candidate for the special election. Unless Alex Sink goes totally Martha Coakley on this race, the Democrats will have their next Congressional pickup. I'm really fascinated with how much the Republican Party has bungled this thing. Bill Young was ancient and in poor health for years, the GOP should have been quietly planning for the day to arrive that he'd either croak or retire. But it seems his death caught them all completely with their pants down and once Sink jumped in for the Dems they practically raised the white flag. There's still a week or so for somebody else to declare their candidacy, but I cannot think of a single possibility that wouldn't be any less of a longshot than David Jolly.
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Nov 7, 2013 22:20
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mcmagic posted:ENDA is going to be a terrific wedge campaign issue for the democrats in 14 and 16 if it doesn't pass. It won't pass. It will die in the House, just like every other piece of good legislation.
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Nov 7, 2013 22:21
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Alter Ego posted:It won't pass. It will die in the House, just like every other piece of good legislation. Then dems will hammer them on it for the next 3 years. I actually think there is a good chance that the house GOP is shamed into letting it pass ah la the VAWA...
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Nov 7, 2013 22:23
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