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Strange Poon posted:This is something I'd be for. Lots of people, especially younger to middle aged people who make their living in media and art, are getting slowly edged out and nickel and dimed by how much worse copyright law has been getting. Every few months it or something related to it blows up as a topic on social media. copyright law is also tough to change because there's no such thing as state-level copyright law. it's entirely federal, which means that you can't, for example, get one state to loosen copyright laws and have that spill over into other states
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Mar 25, 2019 05:36
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I'm mad at some of you in this thread who gave me a little hope that the Mueller report was going to be something good, something that could hurt Trump. My pessimism has only let me down a few times, I should have trusted it!
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Mar 25, 2019 05:42
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YOLOsubmarine posted:There’s been a steady rise in right wing terrorism for at least a decade. New York Times: Hate Crimes Increase for the Third Consecutive Year, F.B.I. Reports. quote:Hate crime reports increased 17 percent last year from 2016, the F.B.I. said on Tuesday, rising for the third consecutive year as heated racial rhetoric and actions have come to dominate the news. Vox: Hate crimes reportedly jumped by 226 percent in counties that hosted Trump campaign rallies. quote:Words really do have consequences. Washington Post: D.C. hate crimes nearly double since 2016, with LGBTQ community the biggest target. quote:The number of hate crimes in the District rose sharply in 2018, nearly doubling the total attributed to bias in the city just two years earlier, according to city statistics. Feel free to make a valid counterargument next time. Prester Jane fucked around with this message at 05:46 on Mar 25, 2019 |
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Mar 25, 2019 05:43
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Don't post that rear end in a top hat in here.
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Mar 25, 2019 05:46
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Prester Jane posted:There was a steady rise in right-wing terror attacks throughout 2018. If there had not been you would be trumpeting that my predictions had been falsefied. honestly i'd probably have either not directly noticed (because the ones that happen are still awful) or shrugged and assumed some other statistical things were going on (the susceptible populations were killing themselves with opioids at a greater rate, say) and it wasn't worth triumphantly claiming the pessimists were wrong; i might have asked what's going on tho heck, i haven't the foggiest of the magnitude of any rise in right-wing terror attacks, i just know my gut suggests it exists the checkpoint thing, though? the "we will be on the brink of civil breakdown if Donald Trump loses"? I think you are wrong. I think your particular flavor of pessimism is leading you to wrong conclusions on this.
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Mar 25, 2019 05:46
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How does the conclusion reached by Mueller's Report impact chances in 2020? I'd like to think not much, but I've been hearing alot of doomsaying elsewhere.
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Mar 25, 2019 05:50
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Grouchio posted:How does the conclusion reached by Mueller's Report impact chances in 2020? I'd like to think not much, but I've been hearing alot of doomsaying elsewhere. i, like everyone else in the thread, have read the entire report and i can confidently say donald trump will be elected to four terms
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Mar 25, 2019 05:52
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Grouchio posted:How does the conclusion reached by Mueller's Report impact chances in 2020? I'd like to think not much, but I've been hearing alot of doomsaying elsewhere. Magic 8 ball says not much.
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Mar 25, 2019 05:53
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The Atlantic: Homegrown Terrorists in 2018 Were Almost All Right-Wing. quote:On Wednesday, the Anti-Defamation League released a report finding that attackers with ties to right-wing extremist movements killed at least 50 people in 2018. That was close to the total number of Americans killed by domestic extremists, meaning that the far right had an almost absolute monopoly on lethal terrorism in the United States last year. That monopoly would be total if, in one case, the perpetrator had not “switched from white supremacist to radical Islamist beliefs prior to committing the murder.”
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Mar 25, 2019 05:53
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Grouchio posted:How does the conclusion reached by Mueller's Report impact chances in 2020? I'd like to think not much, but I've been hearing alot of doomsaying elsewhere. november 2020 is an eternity away, so anyone saying they know for sure what will happen is an idiot.
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Mar 25, 2019 05:53
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the unemployment rate in october 2020 will matter more than the details of the mueller report to the election assuming the summary is an accurate one
cheetah7071 fucked around with this message at 06:00 on Mar 25, 2019 |
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Mar 25, 2019 05:55
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Grouchio posted:How does the conclusion reached by Mueller's Report impact chances in 2020? I'd like to think not much, but I've been hearing alot of doomsaying elsewhere. The 40% that pulled the trigger for him in 2016 will pull it again in 2020--they are not rational actors and the Mueller report would've done nothing to dissuade them if he's on the ballot. *However* it may effect Dem turnout. If D candidates focus on luring centrists or soft Trumpists he will win again. Dems have to focus on turning out Democrats. They have to do so at a 60-40 clip because of fraudulent infrastructural advantages built by the GOP, but it's doable. Maybe people will be angry enough to turn out in higher numbers? I hope so. Maybe the appearance of exoneration will quell Dem momentum? I dunno. Either way, I'm nervous as gently caress because 2016 broke my mind.
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Mar 25, 2019 05:55
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LeeMajors posted:The 40% that pulled the trigger for him in 2016 will pull it again in 2020--they are not rational actors and the Mueller report would've done nothing to dissuade them if he's on the ballot. i get being nervous after 2016, but how many people who vote dem will change their mind about trump because of this? nobody who hated him before is going to like him now.
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Mar 25, 2019 05:58
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Grouchio posted:How does the conclusion reached by Mueller's Report impact chances in 2020? I'd like to think not much, but I've been hearing alot of doomsaying elsewhere. probably not much, though unless stuff changes i doubt someone will try to primary him now. people have already decided on trump at this point, mostly because of his actions during his presidency. the muller show will probably putter on for a while until the full report comes out but at this point he won't be impeached(never was anyway) so basically nothing really changes for him outside "well he probably isnt a out and out traitor" LeeMajors posted:The 40% that pulled the trigger for him in 2016 will pull it again in 2020--they are not rational actors and the Mueller report would've done nothing to dissuade them if he's on the ballot. this. though i think the dems have alot better chances because trump bugled a ton and hurt his chances in PA and such because he hasnt done poo poo for anyone.
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Mar 25, 2019 06:02
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goethe.cx posted:i get being nervous after 2016, but how many people who vote dem will change their mind about trump because of this? nobody who hated him before is going to like him now. Because I see Dems already hedging their message? If Biden wins the nom we will lose. If Beto wins the nom we will lose. Gillibrand is a big phony. Kamala has a questionable prosecutorial record. Klobuchar is an abusive third-way dickhead. Warren is strong on policy, but weak politically. Booker is an empty suit insurance industry stooge and will not inspire turnout. Bernie is awesome but a billion years old (I will probably vote Bern in the primary). I think we have plenty of reason to be nervous. Trump is unelectable to reasonable humans, yet he got enough votes to narrowly win. gently caress the electoral college--he is detestable enough to have been crushed to pieces in any sane world. I dunno man, I think we have a lot of reasons to be worried about 2020. Mostly because blue boomers and Dem leadership seem to believe too much in decorum and American exceptionalism to be up for the gravity of this fight.
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Mar 25, 2019 06:02
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goethe.cx posted:i get being nervous after 2016, but how many people who vote dem will change their mind about trump because of this? nobody who hated him before is going to like him now. that and more people probably hate him now for various reasons and the dems swept the house which was a big gently caress you too trump.
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Mar 25, 2019 06:03
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goethe.cx posted:i get being nervous after 2016, but how many people who vote dem will change their mind about trump because of this? nobody who hated him before is going to like him now. The problem is getting them to actually to go the polls.
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Mar 25, 2019 06:03
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GreyjoyBastard posted:
https://mobile.twitter.com/sparrowm...30%2Fframe.html
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Mar 25, 2019 06:04
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LeeMajors posted:Because I see Dems already hedging their message? i think most of them outside beto, booker, and klobuchar have a decent shot. Biden sucks but people like my dad and other relatives genuinly like him. i think as long as the nominee goes for real policy and actualy visist PA and other states and doesn't gurgle about texas, we have a good shot.
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Mar 25, 2019 06:06
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LeeMajors posted:Because I see Dems already hedging their message? this all makes sense for sure. certainly the dem candidate matters. i was talking about your point that trump being cleared of collusion-related crimes will depress dem turnout--i don't think that makes sense, especially this early in the race. if this had dropped in october 2020 i admit that would be a problem
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Mar 25, 2019 06:06
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CubanMissile posted:The problem is getting them to actually to go the polls. they went in 2018. they will go in 2020.
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Mar 25, 2019 06:06
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goethe.cx posted:this all makes sense for sure. certainly the dem candidate matters. i was talking about your point that trump being cleared of collusion-related crimes will depress dem turnout--i don't think that makes sense, especially this early in the race. if this had dropped in october 2020 i admit that would be a problem it probably won't. it probably adds a reason for turn out. the only way to make trump go is to vote him out. if not we are hosed.
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Mar 25, 2019 06:08
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This is a funny debate forum its never Trump is good vs Trump is bad. Its things are kinda lovely vs the country is going to fall off the map in 2 years.
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Mar 25, 2019 06:08
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I love that Iowa is blue and getting punched in this meme.
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Mar 25, 2019 06:09
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Prester Jane posted:Feel free to make a valid counterargument next time. Do you have an actual course of action, even a general one besides #resist ? Because you’ve been talking about how the narratives matter and facts don’t and all I can even imagine is we need to go into the dream world to actually kill Freddy but for real this time. And I guess secondarily, this means you think that Trump is some sort of mastermind here? The man can’t stand to tell people to their faces that they’re fired. Even while he’s the president. I get the statistics you’re quoting. I get the rise in white supremacist action. But it’s fudging over a lot of details to predict that the first coup in modern America is going to be at the hands of a lovely businessman who rehabbed his image by becoming a reality tv star and eventually became the president who doesn’t like briefings without pictures in them.
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Mar 25, 2019 06:09
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goethe.cx posted:this all makes sense for sure. certainly the dem candidate matters. i was talking about your point that trump being cleared of collusion-related crimes will depress dem turnout--i don't think that makes sense, especially this early in the race. if this had dropped in october 2020 i admit that would be a problem I hope you're right, but the elder Maddow Kool Aid Klub will despair and splinter the party clamoring for the Clinton days of yore. Dems lose because we hedge. Period. No actual voter gives a gently caress about focus group politics, but here we are -- one uninspiring candidate after another. Dapper_Swindler posted:i think most of them outside beto, booker, and klobuchar have a decent shot. Biden sucks but people like my dad and other relatives genuinly like him. i think as long as the nominee goes for real policy and actualy visist PA and other states and doesn't gurgle about texas, we have a good shot. Dems under 50 aren't going to turnout for loving Biden, yet every loving nursing home is going to burn rubber getting to a straight-ticket GOP pull.
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Mar 25, 2019 06:10
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Otto Von Jizzmark posted:This is a funny debate forum its never Trump is good vs Trump is bad. Its things are kinda lovely vs the country is going to fall off the map in 2 years. I have yet to see anyone argue that Trump isn't bad without revealing themselves to be horrible subhuman chuds who deserve a thousand times worse than the guillotine. There's no way to make such an argument without blatantly lying in highly provable ways so that's prooooobly why
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Mar 25, 2019 06:13
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Prester Jane posted:New York Times: Hate Crimes Increase for the Third Consecutive Year, F.B.I. Reports. https://slate.com/technology/2018/11/hate-crimes-fbi-data-insufficient.html Those are all based on FBI stats which are marred by significant underreporting and a lack of mandatory reporting. We simply don’t know. It wouldn’t surprise me I’d hate crimes were up but it also wouldn’t surprise me if they were down since it’s not like America has ever been a great place to be gay or trans or black or brown.... Like I said, this is a continuation of a long trend. Right wing terrorism has been a serious problem for a lot longer than Trump’s been on the scene. 2015 gave us the South Carolina church shooting, the planned parenthood shooting and a shooting at a Louisiana theater that killed 14 altogether. Saying “right wing folks are gonna shoot people if the racist gets elected” wasn’t a huge logical leap cause they’ve already been doing that for a long time, and that’s not counting all of the police doing murders.
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Mar 25, 2019 06:13
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Ugato posted:Do you have an actual course of action, even a general one besides #resist ? Because you’ve been talking about how the narratives matter and facts don’t and all I can even imagine is we need to go into the dream world to actually kill Freddy but for real this time. quote:And I guess secondarily, this means you think that Trump is some sort of mastermind here? quote:The man can’t stand to tell people to their faces that they’re fired. Even while he’s the president. I get the statistics you’re quoting. I get the rise in white supremacist action. But it’s fudging over a lot of details to predict that the first coup in modern America is going to be at the hands of a lovely businessman who rehabbed his image by becoming a reality tv star and eventually became the president who doesn’t like briefings without pictures in them. This is all true and also compleyely irrelevant. Trumps doesn't have to be anything but an attention addict in order to be the head of the modern GOP. The relationship between Trump and his base is entirely yrandactional- Yrump gets his heroin rush from their praise and Yrumps base gets psychological permission to live in their "Inner Narrative" and/or social sanction to harass targeted minorities. As long as that yrandactional relationship remains in 0kave Trumps base will never abandon him- mo matter how irrational or weak he actually is. In their inner narrative Trump is a badass fighting the good fight, and as long as he gives them permission to hurt minorities they will never abandon him. Prester Jane fucked around with this message at 06:22 on Mar 25, 2019 |
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Mar 25, 2019 06:20
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insofar as you can be bothered to link or i can be bothered to read the statistics here, this is a solid argument for "right-wing terrorists were more successful" but not necessarily for "right-wing terrorists were meaningfully more numerous" but okay, sure, let's assume that 35% increase in casualties means 35% increase in incidence, i do agree that most of these folks are not the pinnacle of brilliance "biggest rear end in a top hat in congress fantasizes about civil war", on the other hand, is not news this year, this decade, or this century
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Mar 25, 2019 06:20
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Prester Jane posted:A general strike as well as s broad push for peaceful non-compliance would be .y tools of choice in this situation. I used to advocate for tvise particular tactics very loudly in this thread but frankly got tired of being shouted down. this actually crossed my mind the other day. What's the objective of your general strike? Shut everything down until there are no more immigrant children detained? Until Donald Trump is removed from office? Until full communism now? not that a general strike is currently realistic, but hey, if you're gonna say you and we should all go full Uglycat and put our lifeblood where our mouth is, the theoretical goal of actual full Uglycat resembles that last one  -- also i seem to recall the last time we actually engaged on this topic that you said the general strike should have exceptions for crucial jobs, at which point it's really not a general strike, but that's tactics rather than the above strategy
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Mar 25, 2019 06:25
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LeeMajors posted:I hope you're right, but the elder Maddow Kool Aid Klub will despair and splinter the party clamoring for the Clinton days of yore. honestly i think even biden could beat trump. the real problem would be who beats biden after his first term accomplishes precisely jack poo poo
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Mar 25, 2019 06:25
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goethe.cx posted:honestly i think even biden could beat trump. the real problem would be who beats biden after his first term accomplishes precisely jack poo poo Biden is a less-successful Hillary Clinton with creepy underage shoulder rubs and a worse policy record.
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Mar 25, 2019 06:27
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YOLOsubmarine posted:https://slate.com/technology/2018/11/hate-crimes-fbi-data-insufficient.html FYI I quite literally predicted the Planned Parenthood shooting before it occurred. (As well as the Malheur standoff). I have been warning about (and being mocked for) the rising threat of right-wing terrorism since 2015. GreyjoyBastard posted:
"Sitting Congressman openly inciting white supremacists to start preparing for civil unrest" is actually pretty drat new though.... Sometimes I think I mostly post in this thread to help future historians understand why our population went so quitely into the night. Prester Jane fucked around with this message at 06:34 on Mar 25, 2019 |
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Mar 25, 2019 06:28
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LeeMajors posted:Biden is a less-successful Hillary Clinton with creepy underage shoulder rubs and a worse policy record. But he's also a white man.
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Mar 25, 2019 06:29
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Dapper_Swindler posted:this. though i think the dems have alot better chances because trump bugled a ton and hurt his chances in PA and such because he hasnt done poo poo for anyone. The state parties in PA and MI seem to have really gotten in the game after what happened, and Trump has done everything he can to burn those states. If those two states continue the way they have been, which there is every reason to believe they will thus far, that alone puts the Dems at 268 with an otherwise identical map. What 2016 blue state is there really any danger of Trump flipping? Maine, after everything the state GOP has done to infuriate their Dem voters and turn independents? Massachusetts, which has gone Republican 6 times in 100 years? The only state I would even remotely worry about would be Virginia, and they seem to be enduring that mess quite admirably. I mean, I grant that the battlegrounds being North Carolina, Arizona, Iowa, Wisconsin and Florida isn't ideal or anything, but I still think Trump's odds are really really bad almost regardless of any outside factor. What matters much more is what happens downticket. Keeping the House majority, taking the Senate, and state-level races going into the Census and Redistricting
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Mar 25, 2019 06:29
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Prester Jane posted:FYI I quite literally predicted the Planned Parenthood shooting before it occurred. (As well as the Malheur standoff). I have been warning about (and being mocked for) the rising threat of right-wing terrorism since 2015. no, it is not even remotely new
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Mar 25, 2019 06:33
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GreyjoyBastard posted:this actually crossed my mind the other day. What's the objective of your general strike? Shut everything down until there are no more immigrant children detained? Until Donald Trump is removed from office? Until full communism now? Not attacking you personally, but this post right here is exactly why I believe true resistance to fascism is impossible in our culture. Individuals like you won't fight unless and until you see a clearly spelled out path to victory. You won't take any risks unless you feel assured that all contingencies have been addressed. Which means individuals like you will never fight until your back is against the wall and by then it will have long been too late. Prester Jane fucked around with this message at 06:36 on Mar 25, 2019 |
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Mar 25, 2019 06:33
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GreyjoyBastard posted:no, it is not even remotely new Can you show an example of similar rhetoric from a sitting Congressperson in the last 35 years?
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Mar 25, 2019 06:35
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CubanMissile posted:But he's also a white man. Who hasn't had the full weight of RW media building a collective hatred for him for 35 years.
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Mar 25, 2019 06:36
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