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YOLOsubmarine posted:The Rivian will be the EV for the Range Rover set and the Cybertrk, if it ever makes it to market will be a brogrammer toy. Neither will be bought in any real quantities by people who buy F-150s and Rams and poo poo I love how the internet is saying that the pre-orders are an accurate representation of who's buying a truck. How many of the 300,000 idiots that plunked down their refundable $100 just did It so they could either brag to their friends that they are going to get a CyBeRtRuCk or people who plan to sell their spot in line.
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Dec 28, 2019 22:11
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Lots of people pre-ordered and will ignore it. Lots will also follow through. There are plenty of reasons for people to follow through, as well as reasons not to. I stood in line for the 3 event and didn't follow through, though I am planning on a Y this summer.
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Dec 28, 2019 23:51
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Nfcknblvbl posted:I just ignore the optimistic prediction, and drive fast. Eventually, the car routes you to something else as long as there’s one in the way.
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Dec 29, 2019 01:17
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El Grillo posted:Problem is that if you're in most countries, there aren't a vast number of superchargers (talking from the UK here), so if it's left you only 5% charge at the first supercharger on a road trip it's not like you can just be routed somewhere earlier; you are simply going to run out of charge on the way to your first destination charger. Since you’re in the UK you have the option to charge at any CCS station. Stopping to charge at an 11kW charger for a bathroom break isn’t too bad either.
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Dec 29, 2019 01:28
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Nitr0 posted:I love how the internet is saying that the pre-orders are an accurate representation of who's buying a truck. How many of the 300,000 idiots that plunked down their refundable $100 just did It so they could either brag to their friends that they are going to get a CyBeRtRuCk or people who plan to sell their spot in line. Even if they converted every single one and got them all out the door within a year they'd still only be at about 1/3rd of the number of F's that Ford sells in the US in a year.
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Dec 29, 2019 10:17
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Yep that’s what I mean, same old Tesla spin. I search for articles about preorders and amateur news people claim it’s so smart and $100 means they know exactly what to build first and blah blah blah. Fuckin stupid garbage. If you really want your truck in 2023 and you think that $100 is gonna do it, then whatever, more power to you. gently caress everyone else and gently caress this $100 3 year preorder poo poo.
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Dec 29, 2019 11:50
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YOLOsubmarine posted:Even if they converted every single one and got them all out the door within a year they'd still only be at about 1/3rd of the number of F's that Ford sells in the US in a year. So? The idea that if you’re not the #1 sales leader, you don’t matter is exactly how you get a veritable ocean of samey beige CUVs. Even if cybertruck is a hilarious dumpster fire, at least Tesla is TRYING to do something different.
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Dec 29, 2019 12:15
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YOLOsubmarine posted:Even if they converted every single one and got them all out the door within a year they'd still only be at about 1/3rd of the number of F's that Ford sells in the US in a year. Landline phones probably sold more than iPhones in the launch year.
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Dec 29, 2019 13:04
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Nfcknblvbl posted:Since you’re in the UK you have the option to charge at any CCS station. Stopping to charge at an 11kW charger for a bathroom break isn’t too bad either.
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Dec 29, 2019 16:06
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So, in going with the thread title, with one of the latest releases of the Tesla app, there is an 'Upgrades' button, and you can download the *performance dlc* for your car. I haven't bought the FSD, but I have to say I'm a little tempted with the most recent visualizations. 
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Dec 29, 2019 17:52
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Ola posted:Landline phones probably sold more than iPhones in the launch year. What a weird analogy. Cell phones existed for years before the iPhone, so why compare to land lines, a thing with a different function that can last for decades without needing upgrade or replacement? Do you think the Cybertrk is the iPhone of trucks? MrYenko posted:So? We have samey beige SUVs because global safety requirements are doing more and more to dictate vehicle design and also because that's what most people want. I also don't think that being different is an admirable quality in and of itself. I said the Cybertrk and Rivian would be niche vehicles a few posts up and was asked to Toxx on it. So to answer your question about what's wrong with not being the market leader I would say: nothing, but I guess someone expects that it will be if they thought that it was worth calling me out for saying so.
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Dec 29, 2019 18:40
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YOLOsubmarine posted:What a weird analogy. I think your comparison to F truck sales numbers was stupid and posted a similarly stupid one. Selling more than Ford by preorders alone isn't a fair success criterium. And if it didn't before, please let the record state I think the Cybertruck (not sure which exact vowels to omit) is a very stupid car.
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Dec 29, 2019 18:46
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There's a very high likelihood that Ford will put the EF-150 on the market before cybertruck deliveries even begin. And the hybrid version will definitely be out a full two years before musk's toy ends up in driveways.
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Dec 29, 2019 18:56
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El Grillo posted:Ah cool - are those on the Tesla nav though?? The CCS fast chargers won’t show up on Tesla nav but the Tesla AC destination chargers will. During my road trip, I’ll open up PlugShare on my car’s browser looking for hotels to stay at with AC chargers.
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Dec 29, 2019 19:50
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YOLOsubmarine posted:We have samey beige SUVs because global safety requirements are doing more and more to dictate vehicle design and also because that's what most people want. I also don't think that being different is an admirable quality in and of itself.
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Dec 29, 2019 20:29
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Ola posted:I think your comparison to F truck sales numbers was stupid and posted a similarly stupid one. Selling more than Ford by preorders alone isn't a fair success criterium. And if it didn't before, please let the record state I think the Cybertruck (not sure which exact vowels to omit) is a very stupid car. I'm using it as a very generous proxy for early demand. Tesla had over 500k pre-orders for the model 3. I don't believe they've actually sold that many total yet, though they should be pretty close by now. Some of that could be supply constraints, though that will also affect any new vehicle Tesla produces. Again, I'm not assigning any value to this statement (though I think the trk is incredibly dumb) I'm just trying to out into perspective what it would mean for Tesla to actually be competitive with the big 3 in selling trucks.
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Dec 29, 2019 20:41
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YOLOsubmarine posted:...for Tesla to actually be competitive with the big 3 in selling trucks. This is a moving goalposts type of thing. How about letting them sell en electric truck at all first, then worrying about competitiveness later? It will take many years and many trucks before the truck market is changed. The same could it be said about the Model S, yet it has had a profound impact on the car market and it was obvious early that it would. But the actual change hasn't come that far yet and it's syrupy slow to our collective attention spans.
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Dec 29, 2019 21:10
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Ola posted:This is a moving goalposts type of thing. How about letting them sell en electric truck at all first, then worrying about competitiveness later? It will take many years and many trucks before the truck market is changed. The same could it be said about the Model S, yet it has had a profound impact on the car market and it was obvious early that it would. But the actual change hasn't come that far yet and it's syrupy slow to our collective attention spans. The entire thread started because I said this: YOLOsubmarine posted:The Rivian will be the EV for the Range Rover set and the Cybertrk, if it ever makes it to market will be a brogrammer toy. Neither will be bought in any real quantities by people who buy F-150s and Rams and poo poo And someone asked me to Toxx on it. The goalposts are pretty much right where I set them. Again, it's not even a value judgement, simply a statement about what I expect the relative positions in the market to be.
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Dec 29, 2019 22:56
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YOLOsubmarine posted:The entire thread started because I said this: Yeah alright, fair play. I think I might have moved them myself accidentally while backing up or something.
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Dec 29, 2019 23:20
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YOLOsubmarine posted:The entire thread started because I said this: Ya, after this you said that Tesla would never match 1/3 F-150 sales in a quarter. That would be I assume this would adjust with the amount of sales Ford gets vs Tesla in any given quarter? It's a tall order, but keep in mind Tesla is selling 100k cars a quarter right now. Tesla is also capable of producing 20,000 model 3s right now per quarter. Makes me think that Tesla is capable of delivering based on sales history. Also why do you think the Tesla is a toy any more than most big trucks? If it delivers on it's promises to a similar degree their previous products did, it should be a hit. http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/ford/ford-f-series/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/502208/tesla-quarterly-vehicle-deliveries/ http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/tesla/tesla-model-3/ edit: woop, crossed some wires. LRADIKAL fucked around with this message at 04:43 on Dec 30, 2019 |
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Dec 30, 2019 01:06
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Removed. Not relevant.
ilkhan fucked around with this message at 02:40 on Dec 30, 2019 |
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Dec 30, 2019 02:34
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LRADIKAL posted:Ya, after this you said that Tesla would never match 1/3 F-150 sales in a quarter. That would be ~ 80,000/3 = 26,000. Ford sells 60-80k F-series a MONTH, not a quarter. As for why I believe the Cybertruck will not approach those numbers: a lot of those are fleet sales, which Telsa is nowhere near being able to accommodate; until the charging infrastructure is significantly more widespread towing long distances away from urban centers will be challenging; it looks weird and stupid in a market where buyers mostly seem to prefer the same thing as last year, just much taller and wider; they aren't going to convert many non-truck buyers so they need to steal market share and truck buyers have been remarkably faithful to the big 3...Toyota, Nissan, even Honda have made very good trucks but it doesn't matter; you can't roll coal in it so it's right out for a large portion of the truck buying demo; it's years off from production and I'm skeptical about Tesla's ability to bring it to market before the next recession makes it much more difficult for them to expand production via debt.
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Dec 30, 2019 02:38
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Ola posted:How about letting them sell en electric truck at all first, then worrying about competitiveness later? Yes, this is how business works.
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Dec 30, 2019 03:01
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LRADIKAL posted:It's a tall order, but keep in mind Tesla is selling 100k cars a quarter right now. Tesla is also capable of producing 20,000 model 3s right now per quarter. Tesla has literally never sold 100k cars in a quarter, so not sure how you'd assume that based on sales history.
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Dec 30, 2019 03:57
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MrLogan posted:Tesla has literally never sold 100k cars in a quarter, so not sure how you'd assume that based on sales history. Tesla sold 97k cars in Q3 2019, are you nitpicking? I guess no, LITERALLY they haven't proven they can sell 100k (might change when they report 4Q). YOLOsubmarine posted:Ford sells 60-80k F-series a MONTH, not a quarter. Agh, I think I lost the thread of my math problem while looking up the number. I fixed it in my post. The fleet vehicle thing is a real good point, it took a while for Teslas to start being used for taxis and such. I notice that 2019 was a high water mark for Ford sales, so Tesla might not have to stretch as far. Anyhow, the point isn't to debate the what's and how's. I'll take you up on the 100$ donation, but we need to decide when this pays out if I'm wrong. You said never, we can't wait that long. I'll have to think about how long until it's possible.
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Dec 30, 2019 04:49
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LRADIKAL posted:Tesla sold 97k cars in Q3 2019, are you nitpicking? I guess no, LITERALLY they haven't proven they can sell 100k (might change when they report 4Q). I think it is weird that you consider a number higher than then their highest quarterly sales ever to be their average. You said based on sales history; if you look at their history, they aren't going to be near 100k. It's entirely possible that they start slumping after the tax rebate goes away and are back at the 80k level. I think they'll crack 100k once the model Y comes on board.
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Dec 30, 2019 14:39
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MrLogan posted:I think it is weird that you consider a number higher than then their highest quarterly sales ever to be their average. You said based on sales history; if you look at their history, they aren't going to be near 100k. It's entirely possible that they start slumping after the tax rebate goes away and are back at the 80k level. Are you including China in your predictions?
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Dec 30, 2019 16:27
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MrLogan posted:I think it is weird that you consider a number higher than then their highest quarterly sales ever to be their average. You said based on sales history; if you look at their history, they aren't going to be near 100k. It's entirely possible that they start slumping after the tax rebate goes away and are back at the 80k level. It's actually quite possible they will crack 100K this quarter.
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Dec 31, 2019 12:24
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ilkhan posted:Holy poo poo. Uhhh, Elon, polarizing doesn't begin to cover that shape. Someone tell me it's April 1st, because that better be a joke. 0% interest in that.... thing. lol. ilkhan fucked around with this message at 17:09 on Dec 31, 2019 |
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Dec 31, 2019 16:53
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MrLogan posted:I think it is weird that you consider a number higher than then their highest quarterly sales ever to be their average. They didn't say average. They literally said "right now", as in what Tesla is currently capable of delivering. Regarding the 100k estimate: Tesla deliveries have been increasing each year and Q4 is often the strongest quarter, Q2 was 95k and Q3 was 97k, analysts seem to be guessing 105K+ for Q4. I think they had a bad October though so who knows.
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Dec 31, 2019 23:45
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Tesla Q4 numbers are out https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries They built about 105k cars, and delivered 112k.
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Jan 3, 2020 18:44
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Drowning In Terror posted:They didn't say average. They literally said "right now", as in what Tesla is currently capable of delivering. Looks like they hit 112,000. Not sure on production vs sales ratio in the quarter tho. Also check out this new Segway: https://electrek.co/2020/01/03/segway-unveils-24-mph-s-pod-hoverchair/
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Jan 3, 2020 18:52
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Tesla also updated their supercharger map with new locations. My quadrant of Indiana is getting 2 more.. I-70 in Richmond, and I-65 in Seymour.
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Jan 3, 2020 19:49
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stevewm posted:Tesla also updated their supercharger map with new locations. My quadrant of Indiana is getting 2 more.. I-70 in Richmond, and I-65 in Seymour. I'm hoping a few of the planned Northern Virginia superchargers materialize. Particularly the Falls Church, VA supercharger, because it's only a few minutes from my house. Also, a Reston, VA supercharger would be fantastic.
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Jan 3, 2020 22:12
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Tesla reported 112k vehicles shipped last quarter.
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Jan 4, 2020 01:16
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Trip Report: Decided to torture test the Leaf in the worst travel regime possible yesterday, 160 miles, over a mountain pass with temps below 30F, and from sea-level to over 4,000', about 4" of snow in the road by the time I got there. Worked out pretty well, had to HVDC quick charge twice due to conditions but I made the journey in decent time and comfort. Also: gently caress Electrify America and their cash-grabby pricing model.
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Jan 4, 2020 02:06
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My mate and his wife picked up their new Model 3 Performance yesterday. I took it for a nice drive. I’ve already been for a quick ride in my bosses’s identical car and sampled the mind blowing acceleration (I’m almost ashamed of my reaction which involved quite a bit of screaming), but as he said to me then you don’t really appreciate how magic carpet-like it is until you’re behind the wheel. Holy loving poo poo, what a car. We are car guys and while it certainly is no sports car when it comes to corners, for 90% of usage it’s pretty hard to imagine a better type of car than this, and nothing we’ve ever owned touches the straight line performance. One pedal driving is fantastic once you get used to it, to those who commented earlier on the whole coasting thing, you quickly learn not to take your foot the whole way off the pedal and you can coast all day long. I cannot wait for this kind of performance and overall quality to be available to people who don’t have Tesla money (in Aus you’re looking at ~$110k for a Model 3 Performance AFAIK). I also pray for an energy density breakthrough which makes cars like hot hatches possible with usable weights and ranges.
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Jan 4, 2020 04:41
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You won't get that sort of performance for non-Tesla money, it's actually pretty impressive they're are cheap as they are. Normal EVs are going to drive more like a Kona or Leaf.
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Jan 4, 2020 05:22
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dissss posted:You won't get that sort of performance for non-Tesla money, it's actually pretty impressive they're are cheap as they are. Shhhhh. Let me dream.
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Jan 4, 2020 05:27
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Here4DaGangBang posted:I also pray for an energy density breakthrough which makes cars like hot hatches possible with usable weights and ranges. The great thing about EVs is that they can be heavy and still drive like a sports car. Without writing a novella on suspension design: The thing that makes a car feel sporty and responsive is, essentially, how quickly it responds to driver inputs. The stiffer the suspension (in particular, the higher the front roll stiffness), the faster the car will load the suspension, and the faster it loads the suspension, the more responsive it will feel to the driver. Light cars make this easy by not having a lot of weight to transfer in the first place, which means the car doesn't have to roll substantially in order to set the suspension. EVs do the same by having a really, really low center of gravity, even if they are heavy. My eGolf and my wife's CX-5 weigh the same amount, roughly. I go from my car to hers, and her car feels like a sailboat in comparison. Same curb weight, different CG. I can't actually recall driving a stock, non-sporty car that is more dynamically engaging than the eGolf is. It's a combination of good platform engineering, a really low CG, and very good weight distribution (way better than a GTI or Golf R because of the battery weight in the back). That car has no business rotating and setting like it does mid-corner, and yet it will turn in, stay rotated mid-corner, and then tuck tighter as you add throttle mid-corner. I am trying to burn the eco-tires off of it as fast as I can, because Continental makes an ECS in the OEM size and I cannot wait to see how good the car is on a proper performance tire (range be damned).
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Jan 4, 2020 05:46
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