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Jabor posted:It's interesting, when examining one's own beliefs, to figure out what information they're based on and what new information would be sufficient to change your mind. What do you think my position is and what do you think it 'ought to be? What conclusions do you think I've drawn? Maybe this should be established first, because everyone seems to think that my position is "this is literally nothing and nothing needs to be done" which it isn't.
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Mar 11, 2020 08:57
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Linear model: "Based on an estimate of 1000 infections, we thought the hospitals will be saturated in 6 weeks. It turns out there is 500 infections, so we actually have 12 weeks! Lots of time to get this thing under control." Exponential model: "Based on an estimate of 1000 infections, we thought the hospitals will be saturated in 6 weeks. It turns out there is actually 500 infections, so we really have 6 weeks + 1 doubling cycle.... which appears to be 6 additional days." Not that I expect you to give up on your idiot gimmick, but the differnce there is profound, and that conclusion doesn't really change if you expect the exponential phase to give out and for things to level out eventually past that 6 week mark. This kind man will explain it to you if you're interested: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg
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Mar 11, 2020 08:59
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Fojar38 posted:What do you think my position is and what do you think it 'ought to be? What conclusions do you think I've drawn? Maybe this should be established first, because everyone seems to think that my position is "this is literally nothing and nothing needs to be done" which it isn't. I think your position is that you are an obtuse idiot, and we're all arguing that you're right so perhaps there isn't much of a disagreement afterall. 
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Mar 11, 2020 09:01
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Fojar38 posted:It's been "two weeks before we start to see exponential growth" for months now and the exponential growth hasn't happened
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Mar 11, 2020 09:01
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Delta-Wye posted:At some point it hits an inflection point and becomes a logistic curve, dipshit. The article was merely pointing out that changes to the inputs aren't terribly important because of the nature of it being exponential growth (as long as that phase lasts) in order to draw attention so people take it seriously even if there aren't that many cases yet. If it was linear, an estimate being off by a factor of 2 would have a 2x effect on your timeline before saturation, but that is not the case here. If you talk to a computer scientist, they will talk about 'big O notation'. In that case, they're making some complexity assumptions that having a dataset w/ 10 vs 100M entries is very different, but there is little distinction between 100M vs 200M even though the absolute difference is the same. If it was just to raise awareness so people take it seriously, why did you present that model as an empirical statement? Because people seem to be pretty aware of this already thanks to the 24/7 media coverage and using exponential growth models to predict a social breakdown is the sort of thing that results on runs on toilet paper and jerks hoarding supplies/flipping them for a profit, especially since as I've pointed out repeatedly, on an individual level the most effective things that someone can do are the same things that are good practice for their health in general, namely washing their hands, not touching their face, and staying home if they're sick.
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Mar 11, 2020 09:03
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Okay, in that case I was wrong and the growth has been exponential, although based on what I've learned exponential growth is a subject that's a lot more slippery than I thought it was and its implications aren't always the same depending on the context. Happy?
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Mar 11, 2020 09:05
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Fojar38 posted:If it was just to raise awareness so people take it seriously, why did you present that model as an empirical statement? Because people seem to be pretty aware of this already thanks to the 24/7 media coverage and using exponential growth models to predict a social breakdown is the sort of thing that results on runs on toilet paper and jerks hoarding supplies/flipping them for a profit, especially since as I've pointed out repeatedly, on an individual level the most effective things that someone can do are the same things that are good practice for their health in general, namely washing their hands, not touching their face, and staying home if they're sick. You are a freshmen in lecture, arguing 'but but but professor....' without the humility of realizing your freshmen-level analysis is NOT LIKELY to find some unknown hole in the basics of this professors field. Not gonna say it's impossible, but you're not going to be breaking the curve kiddo.  The salmon-ish colored line is an exponential curve. The yellow is the logistic curve. Until you reach the inflection point, the exponential model holds.
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Mar 11, 2020 09:07
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Delta-Wye posted:You are a freshmen in lecture, arguing 'but but but professor....' without the humility of realizing your freshmen-level analysis is NOT LIKELY to find some unknown hole in the basics of this professors field. Not gonna say it's impossible, but you're not going to be breaking the curve kiddo. You completely dodged my point, or didn't read my post in general. I'm not questioning their math, I'm questioning the validity of using an exponential model to extrapolate to the extent that 80% of the human population is infected and modernity collapses to the point where self-sufficiency is required by everyone. The mealy mouthed "Oh they're just raising awareness" thing is a load of bullshit, made even worse by the fact that it's just convincing people that they're powerless in this situation when they aren't (Again, wash hands, don't touch face, stay home when sick) which makes people act stupid.
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Mar 11, 2020 09:12
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Fojar38 posted:Okay, in that case I was wrong and the growth has been exponential, although based on what I've learned exponential growth is a subject that's a lot more slippery than I thought it was and its implications aren't always the same depending on the context. quote:Frankly in terms of illnesses I am most afraid of getting Norovirus (685 million cases per year with a mortality rate of about 7% btw) remains the biggest concern for me, that's put me in the hospital before simply because I couldn't stop making GBS threads and puking everywhere (but enough about my posting) quote:Not on a day to day basis, which is what I was looking at, and assumed what people meant by "exponential growth." My bad for picking one measuring weeks on the X axis though quote:Okay I think I'm getting it, but it also seems to suggest that growing exponentially is a sufficiently broad statement that it doesn't actually matter quote:But it does make me question the importance of whether or not something is exponential, especially since the rate of growth changing doesn't necessarily mean that it is no longer exponential. For instance, if the growth rate goes down or stays neutral in a given interval it doesn't change the fact that it's growing exponentially, even though the trend points to a decrease in growth.
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Mar 11, 2020 09:13
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Might want to edit some of those adjectives buddy.
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Mar 11, 2020 09:16
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Fojar38 posted:You completely dodged my point, or didn't read my post in general. I'm not questioning their math, I'm questioning the validity of using an exponential model to extrapolate to the extent that 80% of the human population is infected and modernity collapses to the point where self-sufficiency is required by everyone.  I put some dates for you for clarification. If the inflection point is out 9 months, then an exponential model fits nicely. Hopefully that is not the case, because there is a lot of room to grow between now and then. Unfortunately, these world graphs, due to being on a log scale, show no obvious inflection points.  The dark blue line specifically shows strong growth still and that is not a good fact. Fojar38 posted:Might want to edit some of those adjectives buddy. 
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Mar 11, 2020 09:18
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STFU about math I’ve never been as bored by pandemonia as I am right now.
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Mar 11, 2020 09:24
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Fox Cunning posted:STFU about math I’ve never been as bored by pandemonia as I am right now.
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Mar 11, 2020 09:28
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Sten Freak posted:That Iran is under-reporting is no surprise but breaking down the statistics suggest they are possibly incredibly short of the real numbers. You're doing this article disservice, it's way worse than that quote:On February 21, Iran conducted the latest in a series of sham elections in which only government-selected candidates could run for office. To show disapproval, many Iranians refuse to vote, and as participation has dropped, the appearance of electoral legitimacy has dropped as well. Iran’s government told its people that the United States had hyped COVID-19 to suppress turnout, and Tehran vowed to punish anyone spreading rumors about a serious epidemic. Forty-three percent of Iranians voted, unaware that the outbreak had already begun. Quick action could have allowed quarantines to be put in place. Instead Iran greased its own path toward the most catastrophic outbreak in modern history. quote:The average of these estimates is about 2 million (JUST IN IRAN), which is about 250 times the official number and 15 times the total cases acknowledged worldwide.
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Mar 11, 2020 09:30
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No, you don't get it. Their model is absolutely fine and I get their model. This isn't a question of me not understanding their model, it's a question of the models value as something to treat as empirical fact to push an apocalyptic narrative. The responses to that thread area already filled with things like "This is an extinction event!" and "My doctors were downplaying this and now I know not to trust them" and "We need to become more like China" because when people believe that a super smart engineer predicted the end of the world using math, they start to believe even stupider poo poo and behave accordingly even though the flaws of extrapolating based on exponential growth are so obvious that someone as smart as you is surely well aware of them. At best, it's irresponsible. And to be frank, this is what worries me about this outbreak more than the illness itself. The unnecessary and counterproductive panic spread by demagogues and social media prophets, which we're already seeing manifest in things like people buying up and hoarding/flipping essentials and medicine, denying it to/exploiting people who are more vulnerable than them, and in people advocating racial profiling or closing borders entirely or leaving sick people high and dry. If you want to contribute to this then it's your right, but you're an rear end in a top hat for doing so. That's all for mathchat because the thread wants it to wrap up. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 11, 2020 09:30
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Anne Whateley posted:Correct me if I'm wrong but I think, even in Switzerland, it is currently March Correct, I ment May. The virus must also affect the brain I guess. Helios Grime fucked around with this message at 09:37 on Mar 11, 2020 |
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Mar 11, 2020 09:33
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Mum works at a hospital with corona cases, they're being told to sanitise sanitise sanitise.. but all the hand sanitisers and toilet paper keep getting stolen.
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Mar 11, 2020 09:36
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Just do the same thing you do when you get stung by a jellyfish and pee on it, that works right? Also, why haven't I've seen the use of the new smiley in this thread? 
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Mar 11, 2020 09:40
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In mexico don’t they have a super corona called corona gold or something? I remember drinking a bunch of them back in my twenties
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Mar 11, 2020 09:56
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Please everyone shut the gently caress up about math. Apparently the czechs have cancelled gatherings over 100 people, but the government is confident it will all blow over by may. Seems optimistic!
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Mar 11, 2020 09:59
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dismay
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Mar 11, 2020 11:10
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Panic, don't panic, just stop arguing like mega dorks
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Mar 11, 2020 11:35
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can i get coronavirus through my rear end
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Mar 11, 2020 11:41
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coolusername posted:Mum works at a hospital with corona cases, they're being told to sanitise sanitise sanitise.. but all the hand sanitisers and toilet paper keep getting stolen. The only way to keep safe in these dark times is to lather yourself head to toe in hand sanitiser and wear the toiler paper like an Egyptian mummy. The only way.
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Mar 11, 2020 11:43
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a couple guys at my work finally realized that this is gonna affect sporting events this year and went from "just the flu bro" to "why isnt anyone fixing this" to "its very serious but it will be all okay by june, july at the latest" in a few days. the stages of grief are real lol
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Mar 11, 2020 12:04
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I’m a math teacher so thank you for ruining my pooping time with math, real cool guys.
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Mar 11, 2020 12:06
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HugeGrossBurrito posted:I’m a math teacher so thank you for ruining my pooping time with math, real cool guys. As if you aren't subjecting your students to farting. We're just paying you back on their behalf.
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Mar 11, 2020 12:12
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BIG PUFFY NIPS posted:a couple guys at my work finally realized that this is gonna affect sporting events this year and went from "just the flu bro" to "why isnt anyone fixing this" to "its very serious but it will be all okay by june, july at the latest" in a few days. the stages of grief are real lol The funny thing for democratic countries is that politicians very much base their actions on what (they think) people would think about them, so "why isnt anyone fixing this" is answered by the fact that people think it is "just the flu bro". It almost seems like some countries are deliberately letting some Corona seep in first so that they're not seen to be making a big fuss about nothing.
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Mar 11, 2020 12:22
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hallelujah posted:can i get coronavirus through my rear end 1 way to find out
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Mar 11, 2020 12:36
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That Works posted:1 way to find out Poz my Neg Hole 2: Control Hole
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Mar 11, 2020 12:41
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Griefor posted:The funny thing for democratic countries is that politicians very much base their actions on what (they think) people would think about them, so "why isnt anyone fixing this" is answered by the fact that people think it is "just the flu bro". It almost seems like some countries are deliberately letting some Corona seep in first so that they're not seen to be making a big fuss about nothing. i think that might be giving them too much credit. my guess is most politicians aren't gonna be playing chess with the virus, but will just go to work and repeat "just the flu bro" until they start coughing uncontrollably while looking at bidet prices online, then they'll panic
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Mar 11, 2020 12:57
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just loving permaban fojar already. what the gently caress. he is obviously too stupid to have registered on his own anyways, to contribute something - not sure if this was posted yet but matches with some previous studies IIRC: People ‘shed’ high levels of coronavirus, study finds, but most are likely not infectious after recovery begins quote:People who contract the novel coronavirus emit high amounts of virus very early on in their infection, according to a new study from Germany that helps to explain the rapid and efficient way in which the virus has spread around the world. it also says while the virus was detected in feces it seemed to have been inactivated by the body's poopchute somehow. so we really just need to worry about the respiratory path but yeah. bottom line is you're going to be infecting people before you even know you're sick so for example that UK health minister who was just diagnosed - depending on exactly when she contracted it, it's extremely possible if not probable that she infected other gov't ministers. once you start feeling unwell and get tested you've already finished spreading the virus (unless you get seriously ill) Mozi fucked around with this message at 13:18 on Mar 11, 2020 |
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Mar 11, 2020 13:03
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Mozi posted:just loving permaban fojar already. what the gently caress. he is obviously too stupid to have registered on his own Just have him solve an exponential equation to rereg. It'll be a de facto permaban.
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Mar 11, 2020 13:12
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Paging Mr. Burt https://twitter.com/ERuns/status/1237579825784582144 MGM closing their Vegas buffets.
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Mar 11, 2020 13:22
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Mozi posted:it also says while the virus was detected in feces it seemed to have been inactivated by the body's poopchute somehow. so we really just need to worry about the respiratory path So my assless Hazmat suit will protect me from Corona? Sweet!
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Mar 11, 2020 13:27
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buffets are more like inlets unless I've been using those steaming trays wrong
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Mar 11, 2020 13:28
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Anne Whateley posted:Correct me if I'm wrong but I think, even in Switzerland, it is currently March The Swiss year has 16 months. It is currently 1658 there. Pls respect other cultures.
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Mar 11, 2020 13:36
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Mar 11, 2020 13:57
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bomb posted:In mexico don’t they have a super corona called corona gold or something? I remember drinking a bunch of them back in my twenties There's Extra and you dont want that. Take Corona Light and you'll be just fine.
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Mar 11, 2020 13:59
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Not an emptyquote
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Mar 11, 2020 14:09
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