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Hal Incandenza posted:I certainly don't want to mix people we think are scum and town together, that is just dumb. It seems like there isn't enough agreement to do otherwise. Like MMT's completely diametrically opposed scum/town list to a few people is a good example of that.
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Apr 18, 2020 09:01
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King Burgundy posted:I'm going to be super paranoid about Bif though, throughout the whole game, unless we get a clear. Whaaaat I mean I always gotta be paranoid about you cause all you gotta do is sit back not making any dumbshit moves and I'll think that's townie But since when can you not tell when I get into effort town hyperdrive
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Apr 18, 2020 09:02
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King Burgundy posted:It seems like there isn't enough agreement to do otherwise. Lol well if the list ends up being super townie for some and super scummy for others that kinda works out hey
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Apr 18, 2020 09:03
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Murmur Twin posted:This is actually kinda my thing! Unfortunately I'm a bit high and drunk at the moment, but I wanna take a stab at this anyways. This odds post was super useful btw, thanks.
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Apr 18, 2020 09:03
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Bifauxnen posted:Whaaaat Didn't you literally win as scum in the last shine we played? Am I making that up?
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Apr 18, 2020 09:04
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King Burgundy posted:Didn't you literally win as scum in the last shine we played? Am I making that up? Yeah but only cause we scumhammered before all the wagons circled around me haha
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Apr 18, 2020 09:04
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SirSamVimes posted:I like this idea. Instead of a lumpenlist, everyone should post a) who they'd choose if we were doing a four townie hang b) who they'd choose if they were doing a four scum hang. So yeah: Town: Me, MMT, Somber and Bif Scum: Merk, Hal, GK, Steak
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Apr 18, 2020 09:13
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KB can you please follow this link to review the full quotes in MTs original post:Murmur Twin posted:I was tunnelling on him a lot d1 but his reactions to d2 have been very similar to mine as I read along. What do you think of her plopping Hal on her top ten list based on something so trivial? She says Hal's "reactions" were similar to hers but the post she quoted is only setup chat with no reads
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Apr 18, 2020 09:18
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Maf edit: top town list, not top ten list
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Apr 18, 2020 09:19
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Also, all the setup spec Hal spouted there seemed extremely straightforward safe stuff that scum would have no issue conceding to look like theyre engaging
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Apr 18, 2020 09:21
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Somberbrero posted:what really irritates me here is that mmt is being completely inscrutable and doing a hard 180 on everything she said yesterday and you're just being super agreeable and i don't trust it. Read Shine V and tell me she isn't playing the same as she did there. She constantly had opinions that differed from most people, and as the thread leader who knew/suspected(I don't remember) that she was town I remember having to take the lead and sway people away from her, while also trying to guide her away from bad targets. And she didn't want to listen to me at times, even though I was the leader.  (MMT, forgive me if I am misremembering any of this, this is the impression of events that has remained in my brain)
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Apr 18, 2020 09:21
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But what about Fate Soldiers, KB She's well aware of her meta
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Apr 18, 2020 09:23
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King Burgundy posted:Read Shine V and tell me she isn't playing the same as she did there. To be clear, those different opinions were sometimes right and sometimes wrong. And I had way more knowledge then she or anyone else. Just to be clear that I'm not in any way saying she didn't rock. This was just to draw your attention to the fact that this play looks exactly the same.
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Apr 18, 2020 09:25
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Bifauxnen posted:But what about Fate Soldiers, KB I had her pegged from the other thread way before most, despite her activity levels. That game play was different.
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Apr 18, 2020 09:27
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This is one other part that pinged me:Moatillata posted:Yeah but I use my power and then we get one scum result in four? I mean cmon Murmur Twin posted:^ what town player would ever post this? "what town player would ever post this" feels like such an overreach Anyone with the slightest bit of humor will always love a good "I confirmed X as town" vig joke. It is not hard to see this as conceivable town banter. Also the "dayvigging a confirmed town tracker" is laying it on so thick, Vimes is only confirmed now and like she says in the next sentence, it would have likely been the result anyway. Not like Moat would've really singlehandedly been responsible for Vimes death even if this was a normal game.
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Apr 18, 2020 09:29
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Bifauxnen posted:Also the "dayvigging a confirmed town tracker" is laying it on so thick, Vimes is only confirmed now and like she says in the next sentence, it would have likely been the result anyway. Not like Moat would've really singlehandedly been responsible for Vimes death even if this was a normal game. I should be more clear here, MT seems to be simultaneously saying that Moat's vig didn't matter... while also trying to clutch her pearls at how rash and untownie Moat was for vidging the town tracker oh noes how horrible and untowny was that move
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Apr 18, 2020 09:32
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Bifauxnen posted:KB can you please follow this link to review the full quotes in MTs original post: I think it is awesome that she was able to refresh her read of someone she was sure was scum that quickly and I appreciate that she isn't tunneling as much as she used to. But I disagree with her. I think she was right initially. --- A lot of this game, for many people, is finding someone scummy for disagreeing with us(they are obviously protecting their scum bud, or are scum trying to push an obvious town, etc) or towny for agreeing with us. Not everyone plays this way, but it is certainly a fair amount of folks. I certainly find myself doing it when there isn't more important game mechanics to be looking at for why someone is scum. 
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Apr 18, 2020 09:36
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Bifauxnen posted:Also, all the setup spec Hal spouted there seemed extremely straightforward safe stuff that scum would have no issue conceding to look like theyre engaging Agreed. Bifauxnen posted:This is one other part that pinged me: Eh. I don't disagree here. But it doesn't feel fake to me.
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Apr 18, 2020 09:40
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Ok, I think I responded to everything that caught my eye. Anything else before I hammer and get some sleep?
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Apr 18, 2020 09:41
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Nah, that's it for now
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Apr 18, 2020 09:45
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Murmur Twin posted:lol I shouldn't maf drunk I actually missed this and am sad that MMT went to bed after posting this without filling us in.
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Apr 18, 2020 09:47
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##vote Grandi
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Apr 18, 2020 09:52
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 Votecount for Day 4  Grandicap (7): Somberbrero, Grandicap, Murmur Twin, Bifauxnen, Moatillata, SirSamVimes, King Burgundy Iron Chef Ramen (1): George Kansas Somberbrero (0): Murmur Twin, Moatillata (0): Moatillata, Murmur Twin (0): Moatillata, Bifauxnen (0): Bifauxnen, Not Voting (5): Captain Foo, Hal Incandenza, Iron Chef Ramen, merk, Mr. Steak  With 13 people still alive, it takes 7 votes to execute. The current deadline is April 18th, 2020 at noon EDT -- that's in about 7 hours, 7 minutes. 
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Apr 18, 2020 09:53
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Ok, I can catch up now. Good morning.
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Apr 18, 2020 12:31
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merk posted:Ok, I can catch up now. Good morning. Morning! I doubt you are going to be happy with this game...
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Apr 18, 2020 12:35
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Ok, this is an interesting game. Did scum know this is how the game was going to work from the start of the game? The answer to that question completely changes the dynamic of what happened d1. If scum knew, I think getting SSV confirmed is a bad result for scum. To balance that out, scum maybe would have attempted to get one of their own lynched to make it a town/scum lynch split. The only potentially viable candidate yesterday for lynch after SSV was Hal, and the only person jumping off the page to make that happen was MMT. That said, if scum knew, scum definitely would have been opposed to lynching another town yesterday because that would have made two confirmed towns. If Hal is town, then, people against the Hal lynch would jump out as scum. --- If scum didn't know, we can treat d1 like any other d1. This might be moot analysis. I'm not sure we will ever get the answer to this question. My gut would be to lynch MMT and Hal to see what falls out of there. That ship today, however, has sailed.
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Apr 18, 2020 12:51
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To be clear, I think any day with: 1. one lynch is a bad day for scum. 2. multiple lynches of all town or all scum is a bad day for scum. 3. multiple lynches of varying town/scum is the best day for scum. My only strategy thought is that we should be either lynching one person or multiple people where we have very high confidence that they are the same flip.
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Apr 18, 2020 12:54
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merk posted:To be clear, I think any day with: This of course changes as the game goes on. We can't single lynch more than once more probably. I'm not sure. Just spitballing there.
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Apr 18, 2020 12:54
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Looking at what happened today now more closely.
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Apr 18, 2020 12:54
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Grandicap posted:I can see seeing moat as scum if you just look at his play. But that ability man, there is no loving way, and I'm willing to take this game down based entirely on that assumption. I'm not sure this makes sense anymore. We do not know the restrictions of Moat's role.
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Apr 18, 2020 12:59
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Ok, I think Grandicap is town if scum knew the game works as it does on d1. He was a strong advocate for SSV's lynch and then quickly shifted to voting no lynch. If the scum didn't know, I'm not sure. Grandicap's 100% confirmation of Moat being town based solely on role is too confident with the game shift.
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Apr 18, 2020 13:07
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merk posted:Ok, I think Grandicap is town if scum knew the game works as it does on d1. He was a strong advocate for SSV's lynch and then quickly shifted to voting no lynch. Actually, I take this back. Confirming one town and yourself looking town in the process would be a benefit.
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Apr 18, 2020 13:07
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This game is hosed. I need to make a coffee and think more. I have no idea.
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Apr 18, 2020 13:08
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I would be surprised if scum knew the mechanic ahead of time, bit if they did they would definitely be the people who wanted more kills I agree, scum will always want as many kills each day as possible if they can get one scum in the group But really I don't think they knew yesterday
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Apr 18, 2020 13:08
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gently caress, i didnt realize 1st deadline was so soon. im still catching up on the last like 5 pages. initial thoughts on the setup twist discussion: we should absolutely continue to vote for scum today. the idea of trying to confirm 4 townies w the lunch is a fine one, but it's really not sustainable in the long-term. it's true that it would only take 2 perfect days of that plan before there are only 4 non-confirmed players, but the chances of getting 4 townies up even out of 12 is slim, so doing it again out of 8 is almost impossible. and aiming that way would result in vote patterns being almost useless to us for analysis. we only have four days to solve the game (plus 1 last day to input our answer), so i think the odds are very much against us in that strategy. in the "vote town" strategy, even a single slip-up would yield the worst-case scenario of "one scum detected out of four". on the other hand, making an effort to send as many scum as possible to be eccocopped is more likely to yield results of more than 1 scum, and there's also the boon of being able to use vote patterns as evidence, since scum would surely not want to send more scum into a check if they can help it (tho they might want to send a scum in 3rd or 4th to prevent confirming people) tl;dr: vote for scum more detailed thoughts to come when im at my computer and caught up
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Apr 18, 2020 13:09
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Hal Incandenza posted:I would be surprised if scum knew the mechanic ahead of time, bit if they did they would definitely be the people who wanted more kills I agree, scum will always want as many kills each day as possible if they can get one scum in the group We might have to assume that scum didn't know at game start right now to make heads or tails of what the gently caress to do. Every read I am thinking quickly on through my head hinges on that issue.
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Apr 18, 2020 13:10
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merk posted:This game is hosed. I need to make a coffee and think more. I have no idea. Yeah same, still think trying for four town is the worst strategy though
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Apr 18, 2020 13:10
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Mr. Steak posted:initial thoughts on the setup twist discussion: we should absolutely continue to vote for scum today. the idea of trying to confirm 4 townies w the lunch is a fine one, but it's really not sustainable in the long-term. We don't have to use all four lynches. Confirming 2-3 town would be fine.
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Apr 18, 2020 13:10
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Hal Incandenza posted:Yeah same, still think trying for four town is the worst strategy though I think lynching scum is probably still the right strategy. I'm not sure what to do now that we've lynched Grandicap. Ok, actually making coffee now. Be back shortly.
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Apr 18, 2020 13:11
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merk posted:I think lynching scum is probably still the right strategy. I'm not sure what to do now that we've lynched Grandicap. grandi has a good chance of being scum, so lets keep voting scummy people up there
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Apr 18, 2020 13:16
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