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PT6A posted:Thank you for this, actually, in a huge way. I have probably been giving the horror stories/worst-case-scenarios more weight than they ought to have, and you're completely right that the answer isn't to start paying more attention to hopeful stories, it's to ignore all the lovely, low-quality noise going about until we have more information in either direction. I've been putting too much trust in the bad news, and the answer to that isn't to try to put more trust into the good news, it's to evaluate the bad news more critically and wait for actual hard data in either direction. No worries, we've all been there!
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May 16, 2020 06:00
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Ice Phisherman posted:I saw Minnesota stand out among other neighboring states in terms of infections on some charts I was reading lately. Why is that? MN health changed the way they were reporting their infection rates. It appears that they are now attributing infections to the date the individuals started showing symptoms, rather than the date that the infection was identified. You can use the wayback machine to view the change on May 13th. Earlier in the day (before 11:00 AM CST) you can see there being 695 new cases on 5/12 (and 528 new cases on 5/11) while later on in the day the number of cases on 5/11 drops to 90 while 5/12 disappears altogether (while previous dates have higher infection rates.) While it is more accurate in giving us an idea of how many more people are infected and on which days, it is supremely sketchy and gives layman readers the false impression of either a) "We're past the peak, see?" or b) "No new cases today! Coronavirus is over!"
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May 16, 2020 07:05
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enraged_camel posted:Don't link pre-prints. I agree that pre-prints deserve more scrutiny compared to published articles but given the context it's not like this is particularly controversial, it's just a series of antibody test validation results.
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May 16, 2020 08:26
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:also evidently there was some weirdness about how the show was originally going to be targeted at girls, hence a selection of brooding teen protagonists and a bland-as-hell self-insert girl for the head teen to swoon over So I just noticed that Gundam Wing is on Hulu and I'm going to start binge watching this trash on my tv while I do other things on my laptop, thanks for helping me make bad decisions, thread e: Is this robot helmet guy seriously named Lieutenant Sex? He's talking a lot about Battle Seed, uhhh QuarkJets fucked around with this message at 08:33 on May 16, 2020 |
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May 16, 2020 08:27
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NoDamage posted:That stuff is cool but you're going to call me out for linking to a pre-print by actual researchers? Bullshit. You're kinda demonstrating the point when you link a smooth corporate site brought to you by the people behind Biohub and Innovative Genomics. QuarkJets posted:So I just noticed that Gundam Wing is on Hulu and I'm going to start binge watching this trash on my tv while I do other things on my laptop, thanks for helping me make bad decisions, thread Zechs, as in six. Most Gundam Wing characters are number names in different languages. On the battle seed, though, yes absolutely 
Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 09:24 on May 16, 2020 |
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May 16, 2020 08:49
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Discendo Vox posted:Zechs, as in six. Most Gundam Wing characters are number names in different languages. Trap sprung
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May 16, 2020 08:53
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QuarkJets posted:Trap sprung 
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May 16, 2020 09:23
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Kerning Chameleon posted:You should absolutely be gravely concerned, because of the lovely response of the US government on both the federal and state levels means things will get worse in the long term, not better. We will most likely pine for these relatively carefree days in the months ahead, and I feel we need to be totally honest with ourselves and each other about that fact. False hope based on lies and misinformation is fundamentally immoral. 100%. I’m pretty sure it’s going to be really bad around October-November. Im saving some good shows and games to play for then, because I think winter 2020-2021 is going to be brutal. I live in Oregon but in a county not ravaged by it (not that we would know from the amount of tears though lol). Food is stockpiled (stocked) and now I go out once a week tops for the parents (they live local) and myself and to routine in more food. I wear a mask and gloves out, stay 6 feet apart, and go at off hours. Aside from them, I see my girlfriend (who is under the same protocol as me) and otherwise I see no one in person. I’m lucky but I have family who are doctors in New York and LA, and they have friends dying. They know it’s going to get worse, and I know it is too. Hang in there goons. So Grateful for these forums.
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May 16, 2020 09:24
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I earlier posted a local broadcast journalist lamenting about the harassment he received covering a re-open protest by extremists. Since then, the president has retweeted the footage. Yeah. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1261470041221902338?s=19 Discendo Vox posted:You're kinda demonstrating the point when you link a smooth corporate site brought to you by the people behind Biohub and Innovative Genomics. I think the original point bears merit. Japan famously loves puns. Sechs' love interest character is neun, which translates to nine. Yeah. Whale Vomit fucked around with this message at 09:29 on May 16, 2020 |
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May 16, 2020 09:26
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Wait until you find out what Sieben does to Neun!
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May 16, 2020 09:53
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hello here are some preprints that I hope you will find interesting https://twitter.com/KevinWNg/status/1261432994620780545 https://twitter.com/PaulBieniasz/status/1261464406979944454
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May 16, 2020 10:04
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Science announcements are not real unless they’re accompanied by a stock ticker
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May 16, 2020 10:30
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Discendo Vox posted:You're kinda demonstrating the point when you link a smooth corporate site brought to you by the people behind Biohub and Innovative Genomics.
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May 16, 2020 10:33
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Steve Yun posted:Science announcements are not real unless they’re accompanied by a stock ticker I really want to know what the gut response of distilled human greed and theft is when I get my science.
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May 16, 2020 10:33
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NoDamage posted:What are you talking about? These people are researchers at UCSF, Stanford, and Berkeley. You think there's some weird ulterior motive behind a site containing antibody test validation results and a link to a paper? Wtf? I read the Pseudoscience thread in SAL. Discendo Vox is traumatised by bad science reporting and has been crusading against it there for five years and over a thousand posts.
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May 16, 2020 10:42
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Short answer No. Any attempt to do that would be struck down by our Supreme Court so fast. All states can do is ask people who enter the state to voluntarily quarantine themselves which as you can imagine is laughable. The SCOTUS has numerous times in the past upheld the right of states (or cities, counties, etc) to enforce a quarantine, states who want to implement quarantine restrictions on incoming travelers would be well within their legal rights according to precedent. I don't think that they could arbitrarily end all traffic, but proper enforcement of quarantine procedures could be just as effective. It also wouldn't make much sense to target specific states though, they should just make it universal for anyone crossing state lines.
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May 16, 2020 11:21
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enraged_camel posted:The problem with this "better than nothing" line of reasoning is that those pre-prints fuel heated debates and wild conjectures that have a nasty habit of leaking into the general public discourse. This happens even in this thread, and that isn't good because we have a lot of lurkers and casual participants. How long do you think it takes to conduct a study, submit for peer review, have it published, and have those findings verified or disproven in follow-up studies
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May 16, 2020 11:31
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If no one read preprints, hydroxychloroquine would have been a credible treatment for much longer.
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May 16, 2020 12:15
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QuarkJets posted:The SCOTUS has numerous times in the past upheld the right of states (or cities, counties, etc) to enforce a quarantine, states who want to implement quarantine restrictions on incoming travelers would be well within their legal rights according to precedent. I don't think that they could arbitrarily end all traffic, but proper enforcement of quarantine procedures could be just as effective. It also wouldn't make much sense to target specific states though, they should just make it universal for anyone crossing state lines. Well I’m glad I was incorrect but unfortunately with the way things are trending I don’t see any state using the powers at their disposal to even try this.
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May 16, 2020 12:38
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This continues to nag at me, and I know a million people have annoying stories like this, but: 2/9 - 2/12ish - I was exposed to a group of friends skiing including people who had travelled from California, for 2 nights and 3 days; I also rode on a gondola at Killington with at least one group of tourists from out of the country. This group is generally aware of the virus; there are lots of stories about SK now, and one of our group was originally from SK, and signs the scoreboard for a game as "The Non-Korona Korean". Ironically he was also in from coastal CA and could have been a vector here. As could several of us. My wife and I are together for several days, then apart several days. I start getting sick 2/21, she starts getting sick 2/23. Our 3 year old is also sick. General malaise, some URI stuff for me but not so much for them. We have a week of high fever and body aches. We both have a day or two where we feel a little better, then fever spikes again, and we both develop horiffic coughs. Our kid stays sick but doesn't sound nearly as bad as we do. I do remember being worried about her and how she sounded enough that I lay next to her through the night while she was sleeping a couple times. At the peak of all this, my wife said she was feeling winded walking around, and had one time where she had to lie down and keep trying to force-inhale until something "popped open" in her lung. She said this was a familiar sensation, but, 30 years old, early childhood. We are both hacking up a lot of nasty garbage in the morning, and she described it as "glue like". She also lost her sense of smell and had impaired taste. My right lung starts to make a crinkling sound when I inhale, which lasts for a couple days. At this point we're well aware of the existence of COVID but believe "there's no way it could be in Vermont, so we just had a really lovely flu". For me, but not them, URI symptoms hang on a while after the rest of the illness; my ears are blocked as fuckall and I take a box of pseudoephedrine over the space of a week. 5/16, I still have a "weird feeling" / "heavy" spot in my right lung that corresponds to the place I heard the "crinkle". I don't think my ability to do aerobic stuff is too compromised, but as I've started doing spring property maintenance I find myself thinking "am I gettting winded a lot more easily than I used to? Yes, I am carrying a chainsaw uphill in boots, but..." -- A problem is, despite being in what I'd consider pretty good shape from all this work, it's not like I go run 2mi on a regular basis and have a time that I track. Lacking data, it's pretty easy to get into the subjective "well this seems different..." which is a hypochondriac's path to madness. All that said, I still have this weird feeling spot in my lung that hurts a bit after exertion. I am hopeful that I'll be able to get antibody testing soon. I got all the way through March and most of April just assuming we'd had a suspicious and bad influenza, but, my wife had not told me about the severity of her symptoms and the loss of smell / taste bit; also, we have since backdated escape from China to pre-January, and I had tourist exposure. This is my "did I have covid, is my lung damaged, and will it get better?" story, thank you for listening. edit: motherfuck; antibody tests are not available here, and if you need to do an actual C/T to get an idea about lung issues, that's a Bad Idea for me because I have already had multiple C/T scan exposures and need to watch it. *sigh* Guess I'll just have to be careful and hope I don't randomly fall out of a tree from "overexertion". Cabbages and VHS fucked around with this message at 13:18 on May 16, 2020 |
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May 16, 2020 13:05
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I mean, this disease probably was circulating some before detectable cases, but come on. February 9th? There are 250,000 cases of pneumonia in a regular year that go to the hospital, and some much larger number that recover on their own. It's an extremely common symptom. Like, if you hear hoofbeats assume it's horses not zebras. The chances that you were one of the first coronavirus cases in the US in infinitely lower than the chances you just got one of the diseases that just cause pneumonia every year.
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May 16, 2020 13:19
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NoDamage posted:What are you talking about? These people are researchers at UCSF, Stanford, and Berkeley. You think there's some weird ulterior motive behind a site containing antibody test validation results and a link to a paper? Wtf? None of that matters if the science can't be replicated and validated. That's the process and if we don't trust the process then it's worthless.
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May 16, 2020 13:37
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The earliest death in the US was Feb 6 in Santa Clara County, California, and they estimate the person was infected by community spread weeks earlier. Virus was spreading in the US earlier than we originally thought.
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May 16, 2020 13:46
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Slowpoke! posted:The earliest death in the US was Feb 6 in Santa Clara County, California, and they estimate the person was infected by community spread weeks earlier. Oh absolutely, it's just, the number of people saying "I had a bad respiratory illness back in January, I bet it was covid" is pretty silly. For every one case of active covid in early February there was literally also a hundred thousand cases of influenza. There is literally millions of cases per year of flu, not even mentioning any of the other illnesses that can cause pneumonia. Someone was one of the early cases, but for every person that was there is a lot of people that just had something else. Covid is a really infectious disease and by next flu season it's gonna be a real toss up on which you have if you get sick, but the last flu season? If you got sick you almost definitely got the flu, the number of people that had covid was officially like 10, and probably unofficially a few hundred people. Compared to the 56 MILLION cases of influenza in the 2019-2020 flu season.
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May 16, 2020 14:09
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The real problem is cabbages can’t get a freaking test so I guess we’ll never know The lack of testing at this point is literally criminal
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May 16, 2020 14:17
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:I mean, this disease probably was circulating some before detectable cases, but come on. February 9th? The virus had time to spread from China for months. Remember how a single person in a close environment can infect dozens of people and those people can go on to infect more. China is a major industrialized country with flights going in and out all the time and it only takes a single person to infect dozens, even hundreds of people on a plane since the cabin is pressurized and the virus can't go out into the air outside. So it doesn't matter how far away you are. The major infection point for most countries was probably the Chinese New Year a couple days later, but covid was spreading for months across the world very quietly in a time of ignorance and denial. The vectors for the wider world were primarily the airports and if someone was visiting from abroad, they could be carrying it and not knowing it.
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May 16, 2020 14:27
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Oh remember this? https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1261614325921468417
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May 16, 2020 14:29
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Does anyone have a link to that Elon Musk tweet from like mid-March that predicted a ridiculously low death toll and the virus done and dusted by the end of April?
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May 16, 2020 14:46
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Oh remember this? Yeah. By itself it isn't as lethal unless you take more than normal, but people were also taking it with a Z-Pac and that was causing heart failure in just a few days. All of the tests with the drug mixture were discontinued just after a few days for ethical reasons. One of the tests in Brazil was discontinued just after three days due to about...I think 10% of the applicants died. Either that or ten of them. I can't remember. It's been over a month now. A significant number of people died from the meds though. Trump is basically being a snake oil salesman, selling hope, but that snake oil is literally needed by people who have lupus, who are primarily women and minorities, so the media largely doesn't give a gently caress about them. Instead it gets called an anti-malarial drug, even though it hasn't been used as an anti-malarial drug in a long time. So he's double dipping on hurting people because of course he is. Ice Phisherman fucked around with this message at 14:51 on May 16, 2020 |
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May 16, 2020 14:48
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Oh remember this? What really got me about this is that the article reveals that it was THURSDAY, literally two days ago, that Trump last told people to go hog wild on chugging hydroxycloroquine.
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May 16, 2020 14:51
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freebooter posted:Does anyone have a link to that Elon Musk tweet from like mid-March that predicted a ridiculously low death toll and the virus done and dusted by the end of April? I got ya https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1236029449042198528 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1240754657263144960
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May 16, 2020 14:54
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On Terra Firma posted:None of that matters if the science can't be replicated and validated. That's the process and if we don't trust the process then it's worthless. Replication of results is not a common thing, even for peer-reviewed papers. It is (obviously) completely non-existant for anything clinical. Pre-prints do have value and, if the authors can be confirmed to be trusted (appeal to authority I know but that's the norm in modern scientific publication) should be taken seriously. Peer review is highly unlikely to uncover fabricated results and more likely to be "you didn't cite this paper from someone who totally isn't me, anonymous reviewer B" or even downright delaying tactics to prevent getting scooped. The best you can really hope for is that a reviewer will point out obvious flaws in the methodology or statistical analysis. The hydroxychloroquine is a good example, as mentioned by a previous poster. Remember that the original paper made it through "peer review" https://scienceintegritydigest.com/...-19-infections/. COVID epidemiology is a minefield at the moment and you need to be a practitioner, and know the people, to be able to make a good call. Peer-reviewed Vs preprint ain't much of a thing in it when turnaround is 24hrs in a 4.6 impact journal.
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May 16, 2020 15:34
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Tesseraction posted:I got ya I think this all but confirms that Tesla's autopilot is just the Excel cubic fit function
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May 16, 2020 15:42
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Oh absolutely, it's just, the number of people saying "I had a bad respiratory illness back in January, I bet it was covid" is pretty silly. I don't disagree. That said, I am talking about late feburary immediately following exposure to both people from the west coast and sitting in proximity to a ton of Asian and European tourists during that same timeframe. We've also had severe week-plus long influenzas several times. They never had the weird double spike, caused this degree of shortness of breath, loss of smell, and I've never had the "crinkling bag" pneumonia, or lung pain and discomfort that persisted for 8 weeks following influenza. It absolutely could have been influenza; I know flu shots are 50/50 or whatever, and flus can cause all the symptoms. I am not suggesting I am sure that I had COVID. I had been sure I had influenza; as more data comes out, I am less sure, and the only reason I really care is this nagging discomfort and pain in my lungs which no flu or other cold virus has ever caused.
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May 16, 2020 15:45
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i was reading this lovely Polling Guy explain why the liberals are wrong and actually texas is doing great https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1261651654174179334 so I wondered: is Texas actually testing way more people and finding way fewer positives this week, even while their new cases and death numbers have spiked 25%? turns out, the answer is "no, they are faking their stats" and Sean At RCP couldn't even be bothered to google this before posting a Hot Take Thread https://twitter.com/indivisibleATX/status/1261668407407247360 quote:The testing data itself is muddied. The Texas Department of State Health Services now includes antibody tests — which can detect whether a person previously recovered from COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus — in its daily testing totals. But the state reports do not differentiate those figures from standard nasal swab tests, so it’s impossible to know how many tests show active infections and how many show previous infections. also: quote:A spokesperson for DSHS confirmed to the Observer that the agency includes “some antibody results” in its official statistics. “Now that antibody tests have become more available, we are working to provide data by type of test and whether cases are confirmed cases of active infection identified by [viral] test or probable cases identified by antibody tests,” Lara Antone, the spokesperson, wrote in an email Thursday evening. She did not answer specific questions about how many of the tests or positive cases included in Texas’ count so far are based on antibody tests, why they are being included, or when these test results will be delineated.
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May 16, 2020 16:00
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Ice Phisherman posted:The virus had time to spread from China for months. Remember how a single person in a close environment can infect dozens of people and those people can go on to infect more. China is a major industrialized country with flights going in and out all the time and it only takes a single person to infect dozens, even hundreds of people on a plane since the cabin is pressurized and the virus can't go out into the air outside. So it doesn't matter how far away you are. I don't know, the whole "actually everyone already had this, it was really common and no one noticed" stuff is just dumb conspiracy. Like, it was spreading before it was recorded, but there being many hundreds of thousands of cases or something really doesn't match up with the timelines of deaths or anything. Like, if you had pneumonia before mid march or so, you almost definitely had the same kind of pneumonia that puts 250,000 people in the hospital in just a regular year. There was like 58 million cases of influenza this past winter, by febuary 9th? there was like maybe 58 cases of covid 19 in the us.
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May 16, 2020 16:16
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Tesseraction posted:I got ya I can't find it right now, but I swear I remember Musk getting into a Twitter argument about neuroscience with an actual neuroscience researcher and it didn't end well for him.
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May 16, 2020 16:30
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:I don't know, the whole "actually everyone already had this, it was really common and no one noticed" stuff is just dumb conspiracy. Like, it was spreading before it was recorded, but there being many hundreds of thousands of cases or something really doesn't match up with the timelines of deaths or anything. Like, if you had pneumonia before mid march or so, you almost definitely had the same kind of pneumonia that puts 250,000 people in the hospital in just a regular year. This isn't "Actually everyone had this". 10% of the world was in lockdown due to coronavirus around that time. Even then I never said, "Well actually, everyone was infected". I didn't say that and that's hyperbolic. What I said was that it was more likely that this spread way further and much earlier than most anticipated. We likely won't know the actual number of infections and deaths in that early period until much later. Maybe never. Academia will need to chew through facts and theory and snap over it like dogs over gristle before we finally arrive at any kind of consensus. You're also tossing around the word conspiracy very lightly. Covid had several months to spread and did. Likely there were a large number of misdiagnoses because novel covid-19 is just that, novel. Most doctors weren't on the lookout. You can't be on the lookout for something you don't know about and don't have a test for. A single plane with one person who has covid will likely infect most of the people on that plane if no precautions were taken. All it takes is one person. Those people, likely infected, disperse and go home, serving as initial vectors in their communities. And since the number of infected doubles about every 2.5 days on average, the infection rate is logarithmic. With no protections and several months to quietly spread, it's likely that it was doing just that for a time. Not everywhere, because there are still some communities where it hasn't spread too deeply even today. But where it found a toehold, you better believe it spread. Covid is quiet and we were in full on denial until around mid-March. I caught a ton of poo poo for talking about covid back in February, March and even April. It was weird to take it seriously. Now it's not. I got called a conspiracy theorist and worse for trying to ring alarm bells early. This isn't conspiracy because there are no accused conspirators. No assumption of an evil secret plan or cabal of evil no-goodniks, at least on my part as I don't buy into the Sinophobia idea that this is a bioweapon or something. I don't like China's government because it's fash as gently caress, but I also don't like my own government for much the same reasons. Not a plot, but a plague and plague is part of the human condition. Not in the modern age, not up until now, but still, that's an odd blip on the otherwise plague filled timescale of being a human. Noting that the plague might have spread sooner than speculated is not conspiracy. It's just more speculation. Not even particularly wild speculation. Scientists are still throwing their hands up about a lot of this poo poo. Ice Phisherman fucked around with this message at 16:47 on May 16, 2020 |
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May 16, 2020 16:43
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Cabbages and Kings posted:I don't disagree. That said, I am talking about late feburary immediately following exposure to both people from the west coast and sitting in proximity to a ton of Asian and European tourists during that same timeframe. Have you seen a doctor about it? Last time I got the flu it left me with a lung infection that just sat there causing pain and crinkly breathing until I went to the doc. They diagnosed it with an X-ray and knocked it right out with antibiotics. Might be worth a look.
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May 16, 2020 17:04
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LloydDobler posted:Have you seen a doctor about it? Last time I got the flu it left me with a lung infection that just sat there causing pain and crinkly breathing until I went to the doc. They diagnosed it with an X-ray and knocked it right out with antibiotics. Might be worth a look. Initially I called with flu and blocked ears and got a prednisolone script for the latter which I didn't end up needing. Now, I didn't even go to the doctor when I dumped a motorcycle on 4/28 because it seemed like soft tissue stuff and I'm avoiding medical contact right now, but will be calling in about this lung thing Monday. My shoulder is still kind of hosed from the bike accident but I've had so much professional PT for these same injuries in the past that I know what I'm doing, ha. Dirt bikes! The breathing crinkling stuff only lasted a few days, and is long gone. If my Dr wants to do a chest x-ray, I certainly will... It's totally possible and maybe likely that I had the most severe flu of my life followed by pneumonia. However, it's hard not to play the wondering game, especially given loss of taste, severe exhaustion walking up stairs, and a bunch of other poo poo I've never experienced before. But, viruses are weird and influenzas can be serious poo poo, obviously. I just want my lung to not hurt anymore, being able to smoke weed again would be lovely Cabbages and VHS fucked around with this message at 17:12 on May 16, 2020 |
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May 16, 2020 17:10
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