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Inner Light posted:Thanks, agreed with all of that. Well goodbye then! I didn't mean to dissuade! There's no feeling like watching SPY futures rip premarket on a Monday morning when you're holding calls. I also had my largest ever loss (about 2k CAD) with an Amazon call that I had to mentally stop out of in about 30 seconds so I personally removed the options trading interface from my platform for the time being and I'm focusing instead on daytrading $1-4k USD positions at a time where the P/L has a clear linear relationship with the underlying security value.
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Jun 13, 2020 17:32
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It really depends on how long you plan to hold an option. A near ITM option on /ES has a .50 to .75 spread, so you need like 5 points to even be worth trading if you include commissions. I dont trade them unless I plan to hold for 10+ points, and if I have to close them out early because I don't like how the price action is going the gains are a wash
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Jun 13, 2020 17:53
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Sometimes it's worse. I never do market orders but I did once in a panic and I sold at a full $1 lower than what the last trade was. $100!
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Jun 13, 2020 18:00
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Yea I did that once via phone trading after hours. I was up $1200 and closed out the option. I ended up selling for something like $150 bucks because I didn't check the limit order price vs my cost basis. Don't trade foolishly after hours
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Jun 13, 2020 18:15
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I don’t know if anything I have learned or experienced will actually carry through into a less turbulent market, but I also ate a -$30k+ GUH at the end of April and have closed out other positions -$10k down. It’s not all been gravy. I like to think some of my dumber moves are behind me now, no doubt I will continue to zig when something zags, but I’m trying to reinforce things that I continue to see work, stay focused, aaaand.... Who knows what will happen. I decided I’m keeping a trading diary each day from this week onward so I can go back and look at what I did with a better recollection instead of trying to peer back through the haze and chaos of life and a questionable memory. Either way, I’m going to keep trying to see where this goes without betting the farm.
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Jun 13, 2020 18:52
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I think generally the easiest way to determine if you were lucky or not is if those trades had planned stop losses and profit targets, and was it only a small portion of your entire account worth (risk and money management). If you're just throwing all your money into YOLOs, well, even a broke clock is right twice a day.
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Jun 13, 2020 19:03
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Sepist posted:I think generally the easiest way to determine if you were lucky or not is if those trades had planned stop losses and profit targets, and was it only a small portion of your entire account worth (risk and money management). If you're just throwing all your money into YOLOs, well, even a broke clock is right twice a day. All great feedback and advice from where I sit. I’m doing this out of a cash account that still has a 1x day trading limit which for better or for worse makes me think about where I want to use the cash, and if I do a bad buy and sell intraday, that’s on me but I’m sure as poo poo not playing with margin or naked anything. At this point I’m sticking to a single position at a time, usually no more than 10-30% of my available cash depending on what I think is happening. Tracking more than one in this manner is not yet within my skill set - and the tools I’m using are pretty crude, just TOS charts on a laptop/desktop and doing the trades from my phone in eTrade which frankly I don’t love. I set immediate targets using limit orders to start, and then adjust frequently from there depending on what I think I see happening or will happen. Especially on the weeklies, I can drat near hear the clock ticking - the price inflation delta in the first 90 minutes (with the slight delays following the underlying stock’s movement due to what I’m assuming are us retail traders doing exactly what I’m doing are pretty obvious) - honestly if I could set more complex behaviors like “don’t sell at a stop loss even if it’s a 10% dip within the first 5 minutes” I’d like to get that figured out. Yesterday as I was at the end of my first successful tranche of AMZN puts, I brought my phone over to my wife to show her what was happening. AMZN was steadily dropping, and I had adjusted the limits higher before handing her the phone. I was explaining what was going on and both levels I had set sold while she was looking at it - and then it ended up moving twice as high. Just crazy. Anyway, trying to not be an rear end in a top hat. Between this week and last I’m +130k, and this coming week looks like it will be every bit as volatile, so hey, why not be part of it. e: I do at least like to think I had an inkling this was coming, so I broke my rule and bought this into close on Wednesday - just didn’t bet big enough:  
Tremek fucked around with this message at 20:04 on Jun 13, 2020 |
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Jun 13, 2020 19:23
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A judge approved the HTZ request to issue shares
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Jun 13, 2020 19:56
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greasyhands posted:A judge approved the HTZ request to issue shares The SEC hasn't (yet) though. The judge is acting in the best interest of the secured debt holders. I can't wait to read their prospectus.
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Jun 13, 2020 19:58
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Tremek posted:All great feedback and advice from where I sit. I’m doing this out of a cash account that still has a 1x day trading limit which for better or for worse makes me think about where I want to use the cash, and if I do a bad buy and sell intraday, that’s on me but I’m sure as poo poo not playing with margin or naked anything. Can you post a bit about why you broke your rule and made that bet? What did you see that made you think Thursday was going to be what it was?
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Jun 13, 2020 20:31
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greasyhands posted:A judge approved the HTZ request to issue shares Very appropriate av/post combo here
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Jun 14, 2020 01:54
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Take this with a HUGE grain of salt because this is zerohedge, and I can't look into it because I'm living the dream and working my day job at 7pm on a Saturday night, but I thought this was interesting if true: https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1271883216459378693?s=20
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Jun 14, 2020 02:54
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MomJeans420 posted:Take this with a HUGE grain of salt because this is zerohedge, and I can't look into it because I'm living the dream and working my day job at 7pm on a Saturday night, but I thought this was interesting if true: If true this is really close to illegal if not expressly illegal.
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Jun 14, 2020 03:15
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MomJeans420 posted:Take this with a HUGE grain of salt because this is zerohedge, and I can't look into it because I'm living the dream and working my day job at 7pm on a Saturday night, but I thought this was interesting if true: They’re quoting a 2019 SEC filing by Robinhood. That’s not particularly secret. It’s information they literally gave the SEC. It’s a somewhat controversial practice. Here is the WSJ covering it in 2018. http://archive.vn/Rpwc0
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Jun 14, 2020 03:28
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You've got those firms front-running the trades, other competing with each other off of the movement that causes, professional day traders chasing the momentum, and then more retail investors piling in at the end. Repeat ad nauseam until the price action wanes (because the professionals recognize that either the risk is now to great, or the retail investor action calms down). It's a snake eating its own tail... or maybe some form of retail investor human centipede.
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Jun 14, 2020 03:48
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Watch the robintrack website in the morning as some random no name shoots up with RH users piling in slightly behind price gains and then holding the bag when it tanks immediately after. Robintrack only updates hourly. Is that a restriction of the RH API or could you take that code and modify it to give you 1-5 min updates? If you could see the RH users piling in when it starts there would probably be some money to be made.
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Jun 14, 2020 04:19
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D-Pad posted:Robintrack only updates hourly. Is that a restriction of the RH API or could you take that code and modify it to give you 1-5 min updates? If you could see the RH users piling in when it starts there would probably be some money to be made. At what point do we just build the Thunder Dome for real and let people do x10 bets on the fights? poo poo is getting weird.
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Jun 14, 2020 05:13
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D-Pad posted:Can you post a bit about why you broke your rule and made that bet? What did you see that made you think Thursday was going to be what it was? I had been watching the approximate centers of many options (more or less max-pain theory whether right or wrong...) being significantly lower on 6/19 for a while now - at least since the beginning of May. I hadn’t gone any further in trying to dig up an analysis of that center on that date over time. That’s to say I wasn’t sure if it was a recent thing or if it’s been that way for 6 months, but nevertheless took out a cheap flyer that worked out. So now I’m at the point where I’m trying to decide if this single data point merits testing again (btw 7/17 is the same way...) but seeing as we’re in the kangaroo market now why the hell not I guess.
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Jun 14, 2020 05:18
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The Butcher posted:At what point do we just build the Thunder Dome for real and let people do x10 bets on the fights? https://mybookie.ag/sportsbook/wrestling/
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Jun 14, 2020 05:22
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Tremek posted:I had been watching the approximate centers of many options (more or less max-pain theory whether right or wrong...) being significantly lower on 6/19 for a while now - at least since the beginning of May. I'm still learning so sorry if these are dumb questions. By center what exactly do you mean? Is it the option price that has the highest interest and it being lower than the current pricing indicates a lot of people are betting on a drop? Does that mean you didn't know that the market would drop specifically on Thursday you just expected it to sometime before 6/19 and it just happened to be the day after you entered the position?
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Jun 14, 2020 06:00
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Interactivebrokers has had a broken SSL certificate on their website for two days, it's got the one for .co.hk. Not cool for a trading platform.
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Jun 14, 2020 06:06
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orange sky posted:Interactivebrokers has had a broken SSL certificate on their website for two days, it's got the one for .co.hk. Not cool for a trading platform. bob dobbs rule of software: the more important the software, the worse the software quality applies to banks, factories, pacemakers, trading platforms, government...
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Jun 14, 2020 06:10
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D-Pad posted:I'm still learning so sorry if these are dumb questions. By center what exactly do you mean? Is it the option price that has the highest interest and it being lower than the current pricing indicates a lot of people are betting on a drop? Does that mean you didn't know that the market would drop specifically on Thursday you just expected it to sometime before 6/19 and it just happened to be the day after you entered the position? Yes more or less. The 6/19 difference was substantial and I didn’t expect it to drop that far in a single day, and for as overheated as some of these ridiculous stocks have been (ATH on AMZN NVDA AAPL LULU etc and then looking at jokers like CACC HTZ with wild swings) my gut was saying if we’re going to see any tanking it’s starting soon. I too am still learning and am happy to hear perspectives.
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Jun 14, 2020 07:12
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Tremek posted:Yes more or less. The 6/19 difference was substantial and I didn’t expect it to drop that far in a single day, and for as overheated as some of these ridiculous stocks have been (ATH on AMZN NVDA AAPL LULU etc and then looking at jokers like CACC HTZ with wild swings) my gut was saying if we’re going to see any tanking it’s starting soon. How are you measuring that interest? Are you looking at the option strike price with the highest volume? What exactly is the indicator there? Thanks for answering these! Edit: Also, if you are expecting a market drop like that is it best to buy SPY puts? What about something like calls on SQQQ or SPXU or SDOW? D-Pad fucked around with this message at 07:49 on Jun 14, 2020 |
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Jun 14, 2020 07:43
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MomJeans420 posted:Take this with a HUGE grain of salt because this is zerohedge, and I can't look into it because I'm living the dream and working my day job at 7pm on a Saturday night, but I thought this was interesting if true: I would've assumed they didn't have access to the market themselves and had to pay a "real" broker to execute, i.e. they make the app and some big, old school company gets to do the actual trade through their API in return for a fee. But that Robinhood receives money for doing exactly that is fishy as gently caress. What are they selling exactly?
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Jun 14, 2020 08:46
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Wait, you guys didnt know the entire concept behind no commission trading is selling your trade data? Thats not a zerohedge conspiracy, thats the loving TERMS OF SERVICE
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Jun 14, 2020 09:01
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greasyhands posted:Wait, you guys didnt know the entire concept behind no commission trading is selling your trade data? Thats not a zerohedge conspiracy, thats the loving TERMS OF SERVICE I pay commission to my broker so  I bet Norway has some stricter rules on this than the US as well. Is it actually being used for nefarious front running purposes though? And perhaps those are legal in a system rigged to let the big man gently caress the small man?
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Jun 14, 2020 09:28
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Matt Levine has written about payment for order flow, market makers like retail order flow because it is small and generally uncorrelated. A retail investor is going to make small trades and in a random fashion, while an institution making a trade is going to involve larger trades and could be followed by other institutions making similar moves. Robin Hood still has to provide best execution to their clients in the form of the best publicly available price, but if someone can pay for order flow and offer a tighter bid/ask spread to retail that lets them deal with a generally random set of small trades.
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Jun 14, 2020 11:35
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Oscar Wild posted:If true this is really close to illegal if not expressly illegal. Which part? Because payment for order flow is pretty common and not illegal as long as the client is informed that it is happening (and the broker steers clear of any obvious conflicts of interest). e: beaten. Maybe next time I will refresh the page before replying.
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Jun 14, 2020 11:56
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How long do I have to do this before I’m allowed to walk around with a big bluetooth headset in screaming BUY BUY BUY NO SELL SELL SELL
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Jun 14, 2020 12:12
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drunken officeparty posted:How long do I have to do this before I’m allowed to walk around with a big bluetooth headset in screaming BUY BUY BUY NO SELL SELL SELL The only requirement for that is a complete lack of self-awareness. Even better if you do it with the windows down in your leased base-model, poverty-trim luxury car in the drive-thru line at Starbucks. Give those Doterra/LulaRoe huns something to aspire to!
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Jun 14, 2020 13:03
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drunken officeparty posted:How long do I have to do this before I’m allowed to walk around with a big bluetooth headset in screaming BUY BUY BUY NO SELL SELL SELL Two to three weeks, if I can turn this voice controlled trading app idea around quickly enough.
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Jun 14, 2020 13:04
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greasyhands posted:Wait, you guys didnt know the entire concept behind no commission trading is selling your trade data? Thats not a zerohedge conspiracy, thats the loving TERMS OF SERVICE this
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Jun 14, 2020 13:48
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D-Pad posted:Robintrack only updates hourly. Is that a restriction of the RH API or could you take that code and modify it to give you 1-5 min updates? If you could see the RH users piling in when it starts there would probably be some money to be made. Looks like the hour function is a matter of them looping through 8k+ tickers and trying not to get backed off by Robinhood. I think if you filtered down to 1k tickers of interest you could maybe do 5/sec and get through that loop in under five mins.
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Jun 14, 2020 14:02
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Baddog posted:If you were already going to put in a limit sell order though, might as well write a call there. Looping back to my earlier posts on writing covered calls and writing puts, yeah. For some reason it doesn't mess with my head as much -- I don't view it as a loss if you were wanting to sell something at the strike anyway -- but I need to spreadsheet this out to keep track of the return on writing covered calls. Setting a limit order to sell: (a) can be cancelled anytime (b) cost-free (depending on broker but let's assume this) (c) as soon as the order is filled, you get your cash and move to next play Writing a covered call: (a) can be closed any time, but, will cost money to do so (b) you get PAID to write it (c) if the stock goes above strike, you may get assigned immediately, but it may also fall back below strike and remain unassigned at expiry (d) if the stock goes and stays above strike, you will get assigned at expiry I view it as a different way of dealing with the time value of an investment (or time value of cash). If your covered call goes and stays beyond strike, you've essentially just sold it at the strike. But you don't get paid (for the stock, not the premium) until the call expires. So the premium for writing the option is paying you for your time being stuck in that option position. It's equivalent (correct me if I'm wrong...) to setting a sell limit order, selling, and then being paid the covered call premium to STAY IN CASH for the difference in time between when the stock last went over the strike and when the option expires. That may be a pretty good rate if calculated as an annual return. So, for me, the use case for a covered call would be only writing them for stocks that I'm actually happy to sell at the given strike, since it costs money to close the position. If I want to sell a stock in the near term (order ~days/weeks), but don't want to sell at a market order (or at the ask limit ) today, I may as well get paid for my time holding that stock. It's kinda like its own form of dividend. Not as much upside in this as just buying options, but, someone's on the other side of all those transactions where robinhooders are losing their shirts buying options, right? May as well get in on some of that for positions where I'd otherwise be setting a limit order anyway. That's my thesis. I'd be curious to hear if anyone thinks I'm screwing it up (because I don't want to go into this misunderstanding things), or I'd really love to hear gain/loss stories from people who have been writing calls or puts during the past couple months!
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Jun 14, 2020 14:30
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Another big post: I've updated my financial twitter list. There's been fairly significant churn since the last update, more than I expected. Always trying to improve quality and signal:noise, but, I also added some people (like Cramer and @stoolpresidente) that just have too much influence to ignore. This list can be imported via https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/ . I am always looking for suggested changes, whether add or remove.quote:@chamath
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Jun 14, 2020 14:45
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For those appalled Robinhood sells tradesquote:The so-called "payment for order flow" practice remains opaque and controversial. But it's common among other Wall Street broker dealers like TD Ameritrade, Schwab and E*Trade. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/18/a-controversial-part-of-robinhoods-business-tripled-in-sales-thanks-to-high-frequency-trading-firms.html
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Jun 14, 2020 15:09
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TD selling my trades and being appalled to discover all of my trades suck!
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Jun 14, 2020 15:11
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A friend that’s made some great picks and predictions this spring (I followed him into BKNG and did great) is @AnthonyOhayon - dude’s sharp.D-Pad posted:How are you measuring that interest? Are you looking at the option strike price with the highest volume? What exactly is the indicator there? Thanks for answering these! I have been perusing max pain charts like the one below (that’s from this past Wednesday:)  Naturally with inflow/outflow there’s changes happening all the time and that center can move. Re: drop, I think the best we can do are look at the daily trends and go from there. I personally feel like I was burned hard a couple times speculating too far out. Again please know that I don’t know whether this is tea leaves and chicken bones or if there’s real basis for concern around the centers being lower on specific dates: I’m too new to be telling you I have anything figured out, so please be careful!
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Jun 14, 2020 15:24
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reignofevil posted:TD selling my trades and being appalled to discover all of my trades suck! I assume that my trades make the HFT AI throw up.
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Jun 14, 2020 15:28
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