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davebo
Nov 15, 2006

Parallel lines do meet, but they do it incognito
College Slice

Willa Rogers posted:

Every news outlet in the country has talked about CVS & Walgreens being contracted to administer the vaccine (first in nursing homes, later to others); it's not exactly a secret.

I don't know if this was understood or not but when Big Headline said "Giant Pharmacies", Giant is regional grocery/pharmacy chain here so those are two specific store locations in D.C. with the vaccine.

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Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

Aha, I didn't know that!

The more pharmacies administering the vaccine, the better.

Stickman
Feb 1, 2004

Willa Rogers posted:

It doesn't matter; we're all crabs in a bucket & should expect to be hosed over on behalf of capital by now, like the Stanford medical residents were when their admins' "algorithm" bumped them. The important thing is that the more people who get the vaccine, the better off we all are--and that's doubly true for the idiots who don't take precautions.

We would be objectively better off with Senate Republicans incapacitated, especially if it was enough to hand a temporary majority to Democrats.

I also fully expect shitheads to double down on fighting against control measures (personal or community) the second they’re personally vaccinated. Put that together with the degree of sterilizing immunity being unknown and the herd immunity threshold being months away even if it turns out to possible, the major benefit of vaccinating these assholes is keeping them out of hospitals so the staff doesn’t have to deal with them. I fully expect them to do even more damage on the tail end.

I’m certainly not arguing against vaccinating anti-vax shitheads in general, though - there’s really no way around that. I just expect the first half of 2021 to be a complete shitshow that will get pinned on Biden in 2022. That and Congress putting themselves at the front of the line after there performance is peak America.

Stickman fucked around with this message at 07:39 on Dec 28, 2020

The Dave
Sep 9, 2003

Willa Rogers posted:

Aha, I didn't know that!

The more pharmacies administering the vaccine, the better.

The point of the post was that right now you can only get the vaccine if your employer was approved and you are registered to receive it on a set date. Outing where it’s being administered doesn’t help anything and can lead to the public going there and harassing the store for it or worse, some unhinged weirdo trying to destroy it.

Republicans
Oct 14, 2003

- More money for us

- Fuck you


The Dave posted:

The point of the post was that right now you can only get the vaccine if your employer was approved and you are registered to receive it on a set date. Outing where it’s being administered doesn’t help anything and can lead to the public going there and harassing the store for it or worse, some unhinged weirdo trying to destroy it.

Not to mention people stealing vaccines or selling fakes.

Lord Stimperor
Jun 13, 2018

I'm a lovable meme.

A neighbor I'm good friends with has been hospitalized. He was struck by a vehicle and taken in for some broken bones.

However he's also been intubated and if I understood correctly that's because in the meantime he has tested positive.

Because of covid let lockdowns he can't receive physical visitors. But with a tube in his throat I'm guessing he can't exactly talk much to his wife on the phone either. She's living by herself and I don't know if she's able to take care of herself and their dog on her own (he was always the one I met at the grocer and with the dog).


He's 73. He had been telling me that several of the neighbors in the flats around him had been fallen ill with covid because they couldn't miss out on their daily chats over coffee. To make these "safe", they held them outside instead of inside, of course unmasked while half-shouting at each other to make themselves understandable over the neighborhood soundtrack. As far as I understand, he never took part and tried to limit his exposure to other people.

And still there are people in the same apartment building complaining about why they have to wear masks, that all this is overblown, and what not.


I didn't know that I even had so much faith to lose in humanity. How can people care so little for what they do to each other? The slightest adjustment would have kept several premature deaths in this built already. Now that it's hitting a friend of mine and I can't even cope with this poo poo by being cynical about it anymore.

lil poopendorfer
Nov 13, 2014

by the sex ghost

Kestral posted:

The paper is focused on what happens when you're walking through a corridor, but it includes a comparison model that places the "corridor" width at 6 meters, which might as well be outdoors at that point if you're walking behind someone, since it takes a good while for the cloud to disperse.

These models are in an enclosed space, even a 20ft corridor bears little resemblance to the dynamics of the outdoors.

I wear a mask when outdoors to show support for masking up, but I don’t think it bears much additional protection to myself or others.

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

Just make sure to not be downwind of large groups

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

The Dave posted:

The point of the post was that right now you can only get the vaccine if your employer was approved and you are registered to receive it on a set date. Outing where it’s being administered doesn’t help anything and can lead to the public going there and harassing the store for it or worse, some unhinged weirdo trying to destroy it.

A lot of this is actually going to be administered on site, not in their stores --- they're not gonna drag a bunch of nursing home residents to a store --- not that people will necessarily understand that.

FreelanceSocialist
Nov 19, 2002

Ika posted:

Just make sure to not be downwind of large groups

All I can think about is the fact that sitting in traffic I could smell the cigarette smoke and cotton candy vape clouds of drivers around me.

Panfilo
Aug 27, 2011
Probation
Can't post for 46 hours!
One annoying thing I've seen happen lately is that when people downplay the pandemic they are way less likely to tell anyone if they themselves get covid. This happened with my sister in law, she got Covid, didn't really tell anyone from what we can tell, until my mom was planning to visit then she gave her a heads up that she had recently recovered from Covid and was deep cleaning the house in anticipation of my nephews birthday.

I'm guessing they don't want to get ostracized about it but it seems a little irresponsible to me. I get that normally your health is nobodys business but in this case it seems important to know who you got covid from and who you might have exposed.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

davebo posted:

I don't know if this was understood or not but when Big Headline said "Giant Pharmacies", Giant is regional grocery/pharmacy chain here so those are two specific store locations in D.C. with the vaccine.

Yeah, my point was, by publicizing it so early, and giving specific locations when the vast majority of the general public can't get it, you're increasing the likelihood of those locations getting mobbed by people who've decided they don't want to wait for their "Stage" and try bribing or flat out intimidating pharmacy staff into getting their shots early.

The people who can/should get it first should be notified when and where, the only thing the local news should be reporting on is that it's available and being given only to specific people at this time.

Forseti
May 26, 2001
To the lovenasium!

Willa Rogers posted:

It doesn't matter; we're all crabs in a bucket & should expect to be hosed over on behalf of capital by now, like the Stanford medical residents were when their admins' "algorithm" bumped them. The important thing is that the more people who get the vaccine, the better off we all are--and that's doubly true for the idiots who don't take precautions.

I think people are just pissed that a lot of the most visible people getting vaccinated are NOT in the bucket, they're the chefs turning up the heat. I don't know that anybody is trying to seriously propose an alternate schedule, mostly just venting (justifiably IMO) about the situation

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer
Trump getting given magic drugs (or most likely convalescent plasma) and getting better over like 3 days while everyone else continues to just die, didn't break peoples minds like I expected. I'm still not sure what happened. Turns out you absolutely can treat Covid but only 0.0001% will ever get treatment.

There's only 1 crab in the bucket, named 'plebs', and they're standing around it firing flamethrowers directly at it.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
#ATMLIVESMATTER

Put this Nazi-lover on ignore immediately!

Regarde Aduck posted:

Trump getting given magic drugs (or most likely convalescent plasma) and getting better over like 3 days while everyone else continues to just die, didn't break peoples minds like I expected. I'm still not sure what happened. Turns out you absolutely can treat Covid but only 0.0001% will ever get treatment.

There's only 1 crab in the bucket, named 'plebs', and they're standing around it firing flamethrowers directly at it.

How does this keep coming up? Magical treatment or not, the likeliest outcome of Trump getting COVID, just like every other demographic group in the world who gets COVID is recovery. COVID does not have a >50% case mortality rate even if you're a senior and have other health issues. I'm sure Trump got the state of the art in terms of medical care, but it's not some magic potion that singlehandedly cured him of COVID.

That doesn't mean it's not serious, but acting like COVID is a death sentence probably does more to embolden the "just a flu" crowd than being realistic about the severity.

7of7
Jul 1, 2008

Regarde Aduck posted:

Trump getting given magic drugs (or most likely convalescent plasma) and getting better over like 3 days while everyone else continues to just die, didn't break peoples minds like I expected. I'm still not sure what happened. Turns out you absolutely can treat Covid but only 0.0001% will ever get treatment.

The trippy thing about his case is he got monoclonal antibodies (among other things, convalescent plasma doesn't seem to work all that well) and I'd think 'well of course rich people get those and nobody else will because the supplies are so limited' but it turns out there's actually a good amount of doses available and doctors just aren't prescribing them. According to this dashboard 290541/531809 available doses have been prescribed. I think one problem could be that they're only useful during the first week when your immune system hasn't ramped up and most people probably aren't able to seek medical treatment that early. Another is how to distribute them without requiring people to come into the hospital. The TWiV doctor is always talking about that.

Of course with 13k cases/day if they were actually being prescribed they would run out quickly but at least that would be better than letting them sit on the shelf.

I see something similar happening with the vaccines. I'd think the bottleneck would be production but then we find out that there's plenty of vaccine just sitting in warehouses waiting for the federal government to tell them where to ship it.

Imagine being a nurse, doctor, or teacher who dies of COVID you caught while doing your job while a full two shots of vaccine are just sitting in some warehouse unused. It's like what Kerry said about being the last person to die in Vietnam for a mistake.

Hollismason
Jun 30, 2007
An alright dude.
Why haven't we mobilized the military , national guard etc.. to get vacinnes into people. The rate of vaccination is really slow right now. Kind of wondering why that's not being done. Seems we have a lot of people able to give vaccines , nurses, corpmen, etc. in the military we're just not using them?

FreelanceSocialist
Nov 19, 2002

Hollismason posted:

Why haven't we mobilized the military , national guard etc.. to get vacinnes into people. The rate of vaccination is really slow right now. Kind of wondering why that's not being done. Seems we have a lot of people able to give vaccines , nurses, corpmen, etc. in the military we're just not using them?

While I think it's a reasonable approach, I can think of no better way to mobilize anti-vaxxers than media coverage of soldiers jabbing civilians with needles.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
Do we have a lot of spare vaccines lying around not being administered? I thought the main problem was we were supply constrained and mobilizing the military would not help with that.

7of7
Jul 1, 2008

haveblue posted:

Do we have a lot of spare vaccines lying around not being administered? I thought the main problem was we were supply constrained and mobilizing the military would not help with that.

This is the CDC dashboard which sure makes it look like we have 7.6 million doses sitting somewhere unused.

Of course there could be all sorts of reasons why the numbers look that way but it I have read reports that the issue is with distribution and not with supply.

It's probably yet another case where having each state do their own thing is a terrible idea. A lot of states have complained there's no money to distribute the vaccine. The bill that assbag was sitting on has money to help states though so maybe that will be resolved.

Hollismason
Jun 30, 2007
An alright dude.
If we stay at this rate we'll get nowhere near the level we need to be at come January it'll take all the way into February to even get to the 20 million high priority group. What exactly is slowing down the vaccination procedures?

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

Hollismason posted:

Why haven't we mobilized the military , national guard etc.. to get vacinnes into people. The rate of vaccination is really slow right now. Kind of wondering why that's not being done. Seems we have a lot of people able to give vaccines , nurses, corpmen, etc. in the military we're just not using them?

We did, and it is being done where it makes sense. It’s not like nurses are sitting idle at home waiting for deployment orders.

Tiny Timbs fucked around with this message at 18:41 on Dec 28, 2020

Hollismason
Jun 30, 2007
An alright dude.

Did we because I'm not seeing any reports of this at all. I've seen lots of report on the vaccines being administered right now through mostly hospital systems.

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

Hollismason posted:

Did we because I'm not seeing any reports of this at all. I've seen lots of report on the vaccines being administered right now through mostly hospital systems.

Try looking instead of waiting to see reports I guess

https://wusa9.com/mobile/article/ne...f8-2812105484c0

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/coronavirus/2020/12/14/national-guard-distributing-coronavirus-vaccine-in-26-states/

whydirt
Apr 18, 2001


Gaz Posting Brigade :c00lbert:
My understanding is the bottleneck is the number of vaccines available, not lack of staffing to administer them

Dr. Red Ranger
Nov 9, 2011

Nap Ghost
As far as chain pharmacies go, I'm not sure how they're actually going to participate in the distribution. I work for the big blue and not a one of us has heard a peep about vaccinations since an initial announcement over a month ago. Hospitals in our area are already giving their staff pharmacists shots. We're presuming that we're just not going to have them, like the covid testing we trained to do and never put into practice. Due to our dangerous "just enough, just barely" staffing practices, I don't think we could handle the demand on top of our normal duties at all. They might try to run them through off site (parking lot) clinics like some locations did for testing though. Might even make it work with the fridge trucks we use to try and keep stores open after hurricanes.

Deliberate understaffing is an industry wide practice though so I'm curious to see how CVS and Walgreens handle it.

7of7
Jul 1, 2008

whydirt posted:

My understanding is the bottleneck is the number of vaccines available, not lack of staffing to administer them

Do you have some article showing that? Everything I can find shows that there's more vaccine available then there is capacity to distribute it.

Hollismason
Jun 30, 2007
An alright dude.

Those both show that the National Guard is only distributing not the actual military, as in the State themselves are mobilizing the National Guard for those states.

pthighs
Jun 21, 2013

Pillbug
Does anyone know of any up-to-date stats on the COVID risks of flying?

In the fall we took a family road trip to some national parks. It was a nice trip that felt safe because it allowed us to get away without being around any other people. We're looking at doing the same in February, but driving might be more difficult due to winter weather and longer distances. My gut definitely tells me that flying is a bad idea as it removes the "not being around any other people" part of the whole thing, but I was wondering if there was any info (not funded by airlines) around the actual risks.

e: Some quick searches indicate it's not super risky, but i"m skeptical

https://www.aarp.org/travel/travel-tips/safety/info-2020/harvard-study-on-covid-19-flying-risk.html

https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2020/09/how-safe-air-travel

pthighs fucked around with this message at 19:40 on Dec 28, 2020

40 Proof Listerine
Jul 1, 2007

Baroness Kanan-Zelaya of the minor House of Carbon

pthighs posted:

Does anyone know of any up-to-date stats on the COVID risks of flying?

Don't fly.

The Dave
Sep 9, 2003

The airlines did some tests that were bullshit and unrealistic because it meant sitting in your seat fully masked and never moving. Travel is increasing more and more and a guy just died on a flight last week from complications due from covid.

My recommendation would be put flying on your “after vaccinated” list.

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

Hollismason posted:

Those both show that the National Guard is only distributing not the actual military, as in the State themselves are mobilizing the National Guard for those states.

That is how national guard mobilization works, yes. Are you asking why the federal government hasn’t activated the state guards under Title 10? That might be counterproductive, or at least not necessary. There’s no sense in pulling medical staff from their day jobs if they’re already doing the thing, and there aren’t enough vaccines to warrant delivery via hot dog cart.

Tiny Timbs fucked around with this message at 19:47 on Dec 28, 2020

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


whydirt posted:

My understanding is the bottleneck is the number of vaccines available, not lack of staffing to administer them

No the bottleneck is the trump admin and state governments not coordinating distribution in a competent manner. Pfizer has said they have several million doses ready to ship but haven't been told where to ship them to:

quote:

Pfizer said in a statement on Wednesday that the company “is not having any production issues with our Covid-19 vaccine, and no shipments containing the vaccine are on hold or delayed.” The company also said, “We have millions more doses sitting in our warehouse but, as of now, we have not received any shipment instructions for additional doses.”

And some of the states have been complaining about getting reduced numbers of vaccines after asking the feds for more information about when and where the vaccines are headed so they can coordinate local distribution. Apparently the feds don't have enough manpower to handle the additional burden and that slowed things down.

We should have been spending the last nine months preparing to hit the ground running with vaccine distribution, but we've got a bunch of incompetents at all levels who are doing the equivalent of a college student trying to ad-lib a presentation that they didn't do despite knowing about it all semester.

pthighs
Jun 21, 2013

Pillbug

The Dave posted:

The airlines did some tests that were bullshit and unrealistic because it meant sitting in your seat fully masked and never moving. Travel is increasing more and more and a guy just died on a flight last week from complications due from covid.

My recommendation would be put flying on your “after vaccinated” list.



Thanks. Some more searching around seems to indicate that they don't really know the risks very well, as we don't have the infrastructure in place to track people who get sick a number of days after getting off an airplane. So it sounds like a hard no for any unnecessary travel.

whydirt
Apr 18, 2001


Gaz Posting Brigade :c00lbert:

7of7 posted:

Do you have some article showing that? Everything I can find shows that there's more vaccine available then there is capacity to distribute it.

My mistake! I assumed they meant needing people to actually administer the vaccine to the public, but the issue seems to be getting the vaccine out to administration sites from warehouses.

Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!

pthighs posted:

Thanks. Some more searching around seems to indicate that they don't really know the risks very well, as we don't have the infrastructure in place to track people who get sick a number of days after getting off an airplane. So it sounds like a hard no for any unnecessary travel.

Also when you fly, the people checking you in will ask you if you have been exposed to COVID and if you’ve been feeling I’ll in the past weeks. I’m willing to bet money that 100% of all people will say “no” and “no” and get cleared on through. I’ve flown a few times in the past months (couldn’t be helped, no judgement) and there are no temperature checks, nothing to facilitate contact tracing (though I guess the airlines know how to reach you but what are the odds of someone letting the airline know they were infectious after the fact?), and outside of the planes there is no enforcement of masks or social distancing. You’re going to walk past Chick-fil-A and see a long rear end queue with people standing up on each other’s asses, people happily eating at the tables while everyone is walking past, employees and random fliers dicknosing and so on. People are going to cough and maybe a few people will move away or look silently in horror but most people won’t care.

HelloSailorSign
Jan 27, 2011

The Dave posted:

The airlines did some tests that were bullshit and unrealistic because it meant sitting in your seat fully masked and never moving. Travel is increasing more and more and a guy just died on a flight last week from complications due from covid.

My recommendation would be put flying on your “after vaccinated” list.

Right.

While given the nature of airflow on a plane in flight means that you're probably less likely to catch it from someone a few rows in front of or behind you as compared to simply sharing a room with them (which may or may not have good airflow), even if the risk of catching COVID while sitting in place on a plane is potentially lower, that doesn't really take into account the risks catching COVID while in the terminal, while waiting to board the plane, while waiting to deplane, etc.

I think of it similarly to any other situation where meeting a group of people (waiting in line, going to the store, etc.) and how many might be contagious with COVID at that point. Here's my napkin math, and if anyone wants to poke holes in this by all means do so, I am open to refinement in the negative or positive direction:

If a location is reporting over the last 7 days the daily average is 100 out of 100k people are testing positive, we then have to make some assumptions.

In this scenario, we assume testing is catching all mild symptoms havers (and worse), and that all mild symptom havers are doing their duty and not flying/traveling/etc. (lol, but just for ease of argument...)

This means that you're going to be at risk from asymptomatics (anywhere from 5%-20%, depending on study) and pre-symptomatics (in this case, the assumption is the people who will go on to have a positive test within 48 hours). Asymptomatics in this case we shall say they could be infectious for up to 10 days throughout their course.
- so with 100 per 100k cases, we assume there are ~20 extra people per 100k who are asymptomatic (anywhere from a total of ~105 to 125 COVID havers) and, infectious for ten days, basically ~200 people per 100k
- we then have ~200-250 people per 100k who are pre-symptomatic but potentially able to spread disease

Thus you have ~400 per 100k people who are potentially infectious with COVID but not with a positive test/isolation orders. This means that if you interact with 250 people, you will in a randomly mixed sample, interact with 1 COVID haver that is potentially infectious but doesn't know it.

On a plane with 3 seats to an aisle with 2 rows, if you take up your entire 3 seat area, "a few rows" means ~20-30 people, or a rough estimate that you have a 10-20% chance of sitting within a probable infective range on the plane itself (assuming that good ventilation is active), and in a plane of ~250 people... it's quite likely someone will be infective on that flight. Of course, maybe 4 flights have 0 COVID havers and 1 has 5, but that's averages for you.

Now that all gets fuzzy when we start adding caveats.

A positive caveat is that asymptomatic people may be less capable of transmission - this is in part why even non-sterilizing immunity from the vaccines might still do great things if it leads to a much higher proportion of asymptomatics. I saw one study recently say ~50% reduction in transmission from asymptomatics, we'll see how that plays out. It's also possibly likely that 10 days of infectivity is unlikely, it's possibly half that.

Negative caveats include poor local testing, positive COVID mild symptom havers still going on planes (with or without test), and people who have tested negative but still have COVID assuming they have a true cold or allergies.

Confounding caveats include people from different regions being in the same area (so each person comes from a different background level).

This is basically the thought process I go through when thinking of going to a place. When case numbers were more 10 per 100k in my area (and we appear to have decent testing), I was fairly comfortable going to places like the grocery store, etc., because running into a hundred people meant on average I was looking at somewhere 5% risk of even encountering a COVID positive person. Closer to 100 means a significantly elevated risk such that it makes stocking up and limiting excursions even more a logical thing. You can sub out local numbers fairly easily into this thought process.

HelloSailorSign fucked around with this message at 20:45 on Dec 28, 2020

redreader
Nov 2, 2009

I am the coolest person ever with my pirate chalice. Seriously.

Dinosaur Gum

Charles 2 of Spain posted:

Who cares though, McConnell and Biden are 100 years old, it's a million times easier to vaccinate people based on age then checking everyone to see if they're antivax.

Ok, but Rubio just got it too. This is not going by age, here.

Pinche Rudo
Feb 8, 2005

C'mon did you really expect that the elites wouldn't be vaccinated in the first group?

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7of7
Jul 1, 2008

Boris Galerkin posted:

Also when you fly, the people checking you in will ask you if you have been exposed to COVID and if you’ve been feeling I’ll in the past weeks. I’m willing to bet money that 100% of all people will say “no” and “no” and get cleared on through.
That dude who died of COVID on a flight said he had no symptoms and then his wife was telling people trying to revive him "oh yeah he lost his taste/smell".

TFA posted:

The man who died submitted a “ready-to-fly” checklist that said he had not been diagnosed with covid-19 and did not have symptoms. But the family later confirmed he had been feeling sick as they prepared to travel; his wife told medical workers on board that he had lost his sense of taste and smell.
This kind of behavior should result in a sentence of 10000 hours of (real) public service (for anyone who knew in advance and isn't currently a corpse).....

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