|
Cabbages and Kings posted:people wearing seatbelts and having a modern car with advanced airbags die in automobile accidents all the loving time, though? It wasn't my intention to downplay anything, just point out that there's degrees of risk in literally everything, and if a person is taking every precaution they can, the risk of contracting covid via a drive thru window is probably pretty low. Personally I don't think any of that poo poo should be open and the government should be providing money and food for as many people to stay home as possible, but unfortunately the US is a supremely hosed up place with a terrible government.
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 19:08
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 31, 2024 12:01 |
|
|
Doctor Nutt posted:It wasn't my intention to downplay anything, just point out that there's degrees of risk in literally everything, and if a person is taking every precaution they can, the risk of contracting covid via a drive thru window is probably pretty low. Personally I don't think any of that poo poo should be open and the government should be providing money and food for as many people to stay home as possible, but unfortunately the US is a supremely hosed up place with a terrible government. okay, fair, I agree on all points. The auto analogies were tilting me a little because I think a number of people (not you) were falling back on them as "look at this other thing we do that kills a ton of Americans every year" and I don't like that argument at all because I think American motor culture is uniquely entitled and stupid. This comes down to more evidence of the US being a supremely hosed up place with a terrible government, since as much as I Like Ike, if he'd prioritized national rail and not the loving superhighway system, we'd be in a totally different spot on this. I love cars for short distance travel in specific kinds of not-walkable living places. Fuckin' hate them in general (a sentiment partially informed by working in a dealership for 18 months and seeing how awful the business side is) but that's a total digression here. More relevant: after my shopping trip this week, I really wanted some terrible McDonald's fries, the only fast food I can readily get, and have not had in... some time. I agree that the risk of a drive-in window is pretty low, but the ~15 car line worried me (as much from a headcount perspective as the wait), and I thought, gently caress it, I have potatoes and oil and a stockpot at home, if I really want crispy fries I can just do that poo poo and not patronize stupid wealthy multinationals that are operating during a pandemic instead of paying their workers to stay home (and maybe raising prices slightly in places that have this under control). My aversion had less to do with risk mitigation and more with annoyance at the buisness for being operational, as well as the huge number of people just saying "gently caress it, gotta have my Mickey D's".
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 19:22
|
|
|
Cabbages and Kings posted:okay, fair, I agree on all points. The auto analogies were tilting me a little because I think a number of people (not you) were falling back on them as "look at this other thing we do that kills a ton of Americans every year" and I don't like that argument at all because I think American motor culture is uniquely entitled and stupid. This comes down to more evidence of the US being a supremely hosed up place with a terrible government, since as much as I Like Ike, if he'd prioritized national rail and not the loving superhighway system, we'd be in a totally different spot on this. I love cars for short distance travel in specific kinds of not-walkable living places. Fuckin' hate them in general (a sentiment partially informed by working in a dealership for 18 months and seeing how awful the business side is) but that's a total digression here. If you really wanted McDonald’s you can download the app and do a curbside pickup. They’ll bring it to your car. If you wanna be extra safe you could just pop your trunk open for them when they walk over.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 19:26
|
|
|
If I drive by slowly can they catapult it through my sunroof?
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 19:36
|
|
|
Dick Trauma posted:If I drive by slowly can they catapult it through my sunroof? Yeah, but then you've gotta make a sign with instructions to hold up as you pass by the window, and who has that kind of time?
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 19:47
|
|
|
I hope we find that along with decreased symptoms we see decreased communicability since, in theory, our immune system will be better able to combat viral replication but it certainly remains to be seen. I'm hopeful but even if it only functions to prevent severe disease then it will have been worth it.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 19:49
|
|
|
Unfortunately we already know that presymptomatic (and asymptomatic) transmissions account for a decent proportion of cases, though if vaccination reduces viral load as well that might reduce infectivity. I personally suspect that any such reductions in infectivity will be offset by vaccinated folks taking more risks and fewer precautions (and people taking fewer precautions around vaccinated folks), but I’d be overjoyed to be wrong! Stickman fucked around with this message at 20:06 on Dec 30, 2020 |
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 20:02
|
|
|
FlamingLiberal posted:Yes nobody’s really talking about that or the fact that you can still infect others even after vaccination We don't actually know this. The process of getting both doses and then waiting for the immunity to develop takes more than a month, so nobody outside the trials has actually gone all the way through it yet.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 20:07
|
|
|
Boris Galerkin posted:If you really wanted McDonald’s you can download the app and do a curbside pickup. They’ll bring it to your car. If you wanna be extra safe you could just pop your trunk open for them when they walk over. Good to know, and if that had felt like The One Thing I Need For Sanity In A Pandemic, sure, I would have done it. It's more on the list of things I miss a bit but not especially. COVID has taught me a lot about what things are and are not important to me. I think that's universally true, the problem is the people who have (mostly subconsciously, I suspect) learned "pretending life is normal is more important to me than taking basic, sometimes inconvenient, but rarely odious, steps to protect myself and others during a global emergency" 
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 20:09
|
|
|
I still think it’s annoying that we didn’t do active infection monitoring of at least a subset of the study population during phase 3 trials. It’s an important question to know the answer to even if precautions would be necessary either way, and it would have been worth the extra (taxpayer) expense to require and fund. Plus it would have taken ammunition away from the jerks trying to push challenge trials.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 20:12
|
|
|
Stickman posted:Unfortunately we already know that presymptomatic (and asymptomatic) transmissions account for a decent proportion of cases, though if vaccination reduces viral load as well that might reduce infectivity. Yeah I think your second point underscores the first (and I agree)--but a large part of the a- and presymptomatic transmissions were from people 'feeling fine' and going about their business.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 20:16
|
|
|
Funny to see people saying that heart disease kills more per year than Covid and therefore we shouldn't do anything about the virus. And when you respond with "well that's kind of why we need medicare for all" the response is always something like you can't save everyone it's too expensive communism bad etc etc people will die and that's fine I mean this virus has shown me that the only way people gain any semblence of giving a poo poo about other humans is either through war or insane hardship. I just don't think most humans are capable of giving a poo poo about their fellow person getting killed until they witness it themselves.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 20:31
|
|
|
WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Funny to see people saying that heart disease kills more per year than Covid and therefore we shouldn't do anything about the virus. These are the same people who say gun control won't stop every murder. Pay them no mind. They are either disingenuous fuckwads or complete idiots and neither are worth the breath.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 20:32
|
|
|
Doctor Nutt posted:Please excuse my ignorance but how do you transmit a disease that you are protected from getting? Or does the vaccine only mean you are protected from the symptoms and that you essentially are still at risk of being infected by and passing on covid to others? Just trying to wrap my head around why getting vaccinated wouldn't naturally prevent transmission. To add one more (silly / simplified) example to the previous answers (just because this was useful to explain it to my grandmother): Imagine that you are immune to a feces-borne disease, and you stick your hand in a big pile of poo poo. Now, you walk up to someone else and give them a poo poo-covered handshake. Just because you can't contract the disease yourself doesn't mean you have disease-poo slathered all over yourself. The vaccine didn't sterilize the feces when you stuck your hand in it. (Or for a slightly less silly option: You are vaccinated and touch a surface someone with COVID sneezed on. Did the act of vaccination give you the ability to sterilize everything you touch? No. Now, you touch someone else who isn't vaccinated. If that virus is still viable on your hand, you've possibly transmitted it.) Those examples are how I was able to convince my mother and grandmother that no, they can't come visit us/our child before we're vaccinated just because they are.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 20:37
|
|
|
illcendiary posted:For those who have been vaccinated or know someone who has, does getting the first shot entitle you to the second shot? Like do they schedule a time for you to come back? I was automatically scheduled for my second shot, yes.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 20:40
|
|
|
Cabbages and Kings posted:Good to know, and if that had felt like The One Thing I Need For Sanity In A Pandemic, sure, I would have done it. It's more on the list of things I miss a bit but not especially. One thing I've learned from this experience is that I apparently care way the gently caress less about in person interactions than the 75% of my family who seem to be pissed and resentful of my decision to avoid large family gatherings. Sundae posted:To add one more (silly / simplified) example to the previous answers (just because this was useful to explain it to my grandmother): Hey, this was really nice and will be especially helpful when people start badgering me about going out and back to normal once I am able to get vaccinated. v Thanks for even more clarification, I sincerely appreciate it. v Professor Beetus fucked around with this message at 20:44 on Dec 30, 2020 |
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 20:41
|
|
|
Doctor Nutt posted:Please excuse my ignorance but how do you transmit a disease that you are protected from getting? Or does the vaccine only mean you are protected from the symptoms and that you essentially are still at risk of being infected by and passing on covid to others? Just trying to wrap my head around why getting vaccinated wouldn't naturally prevent transmission. The vaccine doesn't make you wholesale IMMUNE but it does better enable you, personally as the inoculated, to fight the virus. The virus is no longer 'novel' in a physiological sense, and you are less-likely to experience severe disease. You can still be infected and get sick, however. And you can infect others because you can still shed virus. The virus itself isn't neutralized.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 20:42
|
|
|
With how lol the vaccine sites have been in the USA and how half assed its been here in Ontario I'm curious how well the rollouts have been going in Europe. Can anyone shine a light on how your countries have been administering doses?
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 20:45
|
|
|
Doctor Nutt posted:One thing I've learned from this experience is that I apparently care way the gently caress less about in person interactions than the 75% of my family who seem to be pissed and resentful of my decision to avoid large family gatherings. I've heard about a lot of people in this situation and it sounds like a tremendous bummer. I've seen my parents a few times, which is questionable but they're taking the same precautions we are (which includes, minimally, cutting down grocery and other shopping to essential & masked, and no other indoor activities anywhere) and I can drive door to door, and it's the only childcare support we've had at all in ~9 months. Other than that "family gatherings" on either side of my family have been nonexistent. The Big Thanksgiving Dinner I Chronically Neglect, is always situated at the house of a career infectious disease specialist so of course that wasn't a thing, and we all variously did Christmas home as atomic or singular groups. This is the second year in a row we've had to cancel Christmas with my brother and his kids and get them up here in the NE, but I'm optimistic we'll all be vaxxed next year.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 21:14
|
|
|
Doctor Nutt posted:Hey, this was really nice and will be especially helpful when people start badgering me about going out and back to normal once I am able to get vaccinated. Imagine that you get a mild case of the flu, like a bad cold. Your body is fighting the disease effectively, and all you need is some Advil and a little rest. Your body is still shedding some amount of live, active virus. How much is dependent on your initial infective dose, your own immune system, tons of factors. But there's still going to be some. You can then pass that live virus on to someone else, and the flu can kill them just as easily as it could before. How likely that is in the real world depends on how much live virus you're shedding and from where and for how long. Sterilizing immunity vaccines basically make that amount of live/active virus so tiny that it's negligible chance that you can pass it on. This is measles - the virus provokes an immune response within a matter of hours in vaccinated individuals and the infection never gets big enough to make most vaccinated people infectious in a practical sense. What we don't know is, how much live virus can you expect from a vaccinated individual who is infected with sars cov 2? Is it going to be so small that that person is effectively taken off the board as a vector of spread in the same way as measles? Are they going to be spreading asymptomatically for days or weeks the exact same way that someone does with COVID-19 and no vaccine? Something in between? Different by age? We don't really know. One educated guess we can make is that it's not going to be as effective as the measles vaccine, because sars cov 2 can take a long time to provoke any immune response at all as it sits in the upper respiratory tract where the immune system has less access. If the immune system can't "see" the virus because it's just infecting a few surface epithelial cells in the sinuses, the vaccine might not be making any difference at all at that point. We can also make an educated guess that there's going to be a pretty broad spectrum of outcomes because the course of COVID-19 itself is such a clown show of random incubation times, symptoms, and transmissibility results as a baseline disease. And on top of that, each vaccine might have a different result, and there could also be large demographic variability in whether a particular vaccine provokes sterilizing immunity. So really the vaccines should not immediately be used as an excuse to change behavior at all. They will be, but that's just as loving stupid as re-opening indoor dining - people acting as if the disease has been eradicated once they're vaccinated could easily trigger another outbreak surge.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 21:16
|
|
|
The Oldest Man posted:Imagine that you get a mild case of the flu, like a bad cold. Your body is fighting the disease effectively, and all you need is some Advil and a little rest. Your body is still shedding some amount of live, active virus. How much is dependent on your initial infective dose, your own immune system, tons of factors. But there's still going to be some. Hmm would it be reasonable to spin it like "assume the vaccine protects yourself and not necessarily others. Maybe it protects others too? We're not sure on that yet." Sterilizing immunity was not the goal for the vaccine development and afaik most scientists assumed a good likelihood it wouldn't stop people from being infectious. Most of the public has been operating under the assumption that vaccine = completely immune and they can go back to life as normal. Partly that's wishful thinking and partly not understanding how vaccines and the disease actually work. Unfortunately now I'm seeing people questioning whether they should get the vaccine if it doesn't provide sterilizing immunity, as if reality doesn't meet their unreasonable expectations so they don't trust the vaccine.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 21:49
|
|
|
Covid protecting only you is still enough for society to be able to go back to normal though - the reason we shut down societies over covid is that it can easily spread into vulnerable populations and kill 1%-2% of your population while collapsing your medical infrastructure. If the vulnerable are vaccinated, then covid doesn't kill or cripple enough people to make up for all the damage it's doing to peoples lives and livelihoods. The point is not total eradication of the disease - we've very rarely achieved that. It's that making it a disease we can live with, like the current flu or various tropical diseases.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 22:00
|
|
|
Fritz the Horse posted:Most of the public has been operating under the assumption that vaccine = completely immune and they can go back to life as normal. Partly that's wishful thinking and partly not understanding how vaccines and the disease actually work. Unfortunately now I'm seeing people questioning whether they should get the vaccine if it doesn't provide sterilizing immunity, as if reality doesn't meet their unreasonable expectations so they don't trust the vaccine. Most of the public think they understand tax brackets too. The public is generally really loving ignorant. Add science illiteracy and systematic destruction of public education and none of this is remotely surprising. Just a poo poo-slog of an uphill battle.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 22:15
|
|
|
Nothingtoseehere posted:Covid protecting only you is still enough for society to be able to go back to normal though - the reason we shut down societies over covid is that it can easily spread into vulnerable populations and kill 1%-2% of your population while collapsing your medical infrastructure. If the vulnerable are vaccinated, then covid doesn't kill or cripple enough people to make up for all the damage it's doing to peoples lives and livelihoods. The point is not total eradication of the disease - we've very rarely achieved that. It's that making it a disease we can live with, like the current flu or various tropical diseases. Uh, the LA County hospital system is still going to collapse even with all their front-line medical personnel and nursing homes vaccinated. A mass outbreak in the general population will still do that until the majority of the population is vaccinated.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 22:15
|
|
|
The Oldest Man posted:Uh, the LA County hospital system is still going to collapse even with all their front-line medical personnel and nursing homes vaccinated. A mass outbreak in the general population will still do that until the majority of the population is vaccinated. By vulnerable groups, I'm using the UK government definition, which is to say "everyone over 50" The point being that the average 30something goon does not and will not get vaccinated before the pandemic is "over", when it is not so harmful that we don't have to shut down society over it. Nothingtoseehere fucked around with this message at 22:37 on Dec 30, 2020 |
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 22:18
|
|
|
Stickman posted:There’s only a few live-agent vaccines that are still regularly used in the US - most are either inactivated or just proteins or particle antigens that have no risk of out-of-control or secondary infections. I'm old enough to have gotten the oral polio vaccine in the US. I remember it tasting like melted butter and being delicious.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 22:31
|
|
|
quote:Celebrity doctor Drew Pinsky has tested positive for COVID-19. Pinsky, known as “Dr. Drew,” is “under surveillance” according to a message shared on his Instagram account. quote:Pinsky’s diagnosis comes months after he apologized for downplaying the severity of the virus and calling the pandemic “press induced panic.”
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 22:34
|
|
|
Nothingtoseehere posted:By vulnerable groups, I'm using the UK government definition, which is to say "everyone over 50" The point being that the average 30something goon does not and will not get vaccinated before the pandemic is "over", that is not so harmful to society to shut down over it. That is literally a policy under which a bonus million or so people die. In a hospital collapse situation where most people under 50 are not vaccinated at the time restrictions are removed, about half of these ICU admissions among 18-54s becomes a fatality.  https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-young-people-hospitalized-covid-19-chart/ And that's not even counting the excess mortality this year among people younger than 50 that's not conclusively linked to COVID by a test result. quote:The largest burden of Covid-19 has undoubtedly fallen on people older than 65; they account for around 80 percent of deaths in the United States. But if we momentarily eclipse that from our mind’s eye, something else becomes visible: The corona of this virus.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 22:39
|
|
|
Sax Mortar posted:It's not. California now seeing the same spike other states saw earlier and just has a higher population than everywhere else. California is currently 34th in cases per 1M people and 40th in deaths. I think you're looking at all-time data. For the past seven days, California is currently #1 in cases. It's 34th in deaths, but I suspect that will shoot up over the next few weeks. I guess I could see the "same spike, just delayed" thing, though. The idea being that most of the people who would be exposed by small private holiday gatherings had already been recently infected in other states. I'm not fully convinced, but I think that's at least plausible.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 22:42
|
|
|
One example mechanism for how vaccination can prevent disease but not spreading is one of the things that can happen with influenza. White cells don't move through outer mucus membrane tissues in your nose that easily and you can get influenza virus replicating there despite any virus particles that go further in being rapidly destroyed. Sneezing in that state can still throw off infectious droplets. Eventually immune response will ramp up and clear it out, but it'll take a little bit.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 22:50
|
|
|
The preliminary results for the ModeRNA vaccine showed something like a ~65% drop in detectable infections for the vaccine branch when they swabbed everyone at the second shot. Considering that Pfizer is designed to target the same viral protein, that we test for infections by sampling the same places the virus spreads from, and that the decrease was after a single dose I think there is good reason to be hopeful that the vaccine will significantly cut spread and that vaccinated people won't turn into asymptomatic super-spreaders. But the numbers in the Moderna data were really small so there's some serious uncertainty there, and I really wish they had tested more heavily for it though since if the vaccines do prevent spread then it might make sense to alter our rollout to target the population that spreads the disease more heavily.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 22:56
|
|
|
I'm glad he wised up and apologized all the way back in April but that sort of thing is like whipping your dick out in a zoom call. You can apologize all you want but we all saw that dick regardless.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 22:57
|
|
|
Doctor Nutt posted:I'm glad he wised up and apologized all the way back in April but that sort of thing is like whipping your dick out in a zoom call. You can apologize all you want but we all saw that dick regardless.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 23:00
|
|
|
Shifty Pony posted:The preliminary results for the ModeRNA vaccine showed something like a ~65% drop in detectable infections for the vaccine branch when they swabbed everyone at the second shot. Considering that Pfizer is designed to target the same viral protein, that we test for infections by sampling the same places the virus spreads from, and that the decrease was after a single dose I think there is good reason to be hopeful that the vaccine will significantly cut spread and that vaccinated people won't turn into asymptomatic super-spreaders. I'm really optimistic about the mRNA vaccines but we need actual population level data about the transmissibility of the infection from vaccinated people before making decisions like lifting distancing restrictions, allowing indoor dining, and so on. That's the missing factor in the equation that will predict whether lifting those restrictions results in a dozen extra deaths or a thousand or a hundred thousand. However I suspect as older and richer people get access to the vaccine, we'll instead see political support for restrictions evaporate long before the level of penetration where even a high-efficacy sterilizing immunity vaccine would make a difference in the overall pace of the pandemic, then we'll see state and local governments shrug and end the restrictions, then we'll see some major outbreak waves as a direct result of that. People are really looking for excuses for this to be over and "meemaw got the shot" is more than plausible enough.
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 23:19
|
|
|
Arcsquad12 posted:With how lol the vaccine sites have been in the USA and how half assed its been here in Ontario I'm curious how well the rollouts have been going in Europe. Can anyone shine a light on how your countries have been administering doses? In the Netherlands we won’t start vaccinating until January 8 because the IT-system used to register vaccinations isn’t ready yet. My employer is actually responsible for building that system and they literally got the assignment three weeks ago. Of course there already is a system in place to track all other vaccines, but that wasn’t good enough. 
|
|
#
?
Dec 30, 2020 23:31
|
|
|
VikingofRock posted:I think you're looking at all-time data. For the past seven days, California is currently #1 in cases. It's 34th in deaths, but I suspect that will shoot up over the next few weeks. Of course I'm looking at all time data. It's how the statement "they're now seeing what others saw earlier" came to be. The Dakotas got hit the worst, even worse than California is being hit now. There's a reason both of them have seen over 10% of their populations test positive for the virus. Every state has seen spikes and they've varied on when those spikes came up. California is in a spike right now where other states happen to not be in a spike. It doesn't mean anything unique is happening in California, it means California is starting to catch up to others.
|
|
#
?
Dec 31, 2020 00:11
|
|
|
FlamingLiberal posted:Yeah I don’t feel much sympathy here if he didn't have a history of being a toxic idiot with regressive views on sex I might be a little more sympathetic to an April redaction. Doctor Nutt posted:One thing I've learned from this experience is that I apparently care way the gently caress less about in person interactions than the 75% of my family who seem to be pissed and resentful of my decision to avoid large family gatherings. That's rough. My family is more or less all taking this seriously and there haven't been any gatherings to miss, on either side of my family, or my wife's. That's a different kind of rough but at least we're commiserating instead of arguing about discernable bits of objective reality.
|
|
#
?
Dec 31, 2020 00:32
|
|
|
Thorn Wishes Talon posted:Vaccinations are going swimmingly. It turns out that this insanely slow rate of vaccinations might be a bigger problem: https://twitter.com/willystaley/status/1344385665501433871
|
|
#
?
Dec 31, 2020 01:12
|
|
|
lil poopendorfer posted:Are you/other Australians wearing masks when you go out? In Victoria masks were mandated for everywhere outside your house during the second wave/four-month lockdown. Anecdotally, at that point I saw mask wearing go from maybe 1-5% of people to 99%. When we started opening up we eased the mandate so that you only have to wear them in retail, public transport, grocery stores etc. I think they might still be mandatory in schools and blue collar workplaces too? Basically just everywhere indoors except places where it's hampering the point of the business like restaurants, bars, barbers etc. And bear in mind that at that point Victoria had eliminated the virus entirely. Having said that (and this is my anecdata) compliance seemed to be slipping on public transport. In New South Wales on the other hand masks have never been mandatory. The government even now with this new outbreak (which has about 250,000 people in one region of Sydney in lockdown) has said that they strongly advise masks and you'd be "crazy" not to wear one, but they just... won't mandate it. I don't know why and I don't know what the level of voluntary mask wearing is like. Every other state in Australia has more or less eliminated the virus since the March/April lockdowns so life goes on there mostly as normal and they have no mandates and, I assume, very little mask wearing.
|
|
#
?
Dec 31, 2020 02:02
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 31, 2024 12:01 |
|
|
Slow News Day posted:It turns out that this insanely slow rate of vaccinations might be a bigger problem: loving clownshoes administration. Top to bottom.
|
|
#
?
Dec 31, 2020 02:03
|
|