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fWAR is what I say when someone tries to tell me a player I like is bad.
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May 18, 2021 18:56
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Popete posted:fWAR is what I say when someone tries to tell me a player I like is bad. How I explain that Yusei Kikuchi is actually a good pitcher is through fWAR...
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May 18, 2021 18:57
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The reason I always didn't like fWar was that there are some pitchers who regularly outpitch their FIP like Matt Cain and Mark Buehrle used to and it totally undervalues how rockin they were. Buehrle by bWar is a HOFer goddamnit.
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May 18, 2021 19:04
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Popete posted:WAR doesn't take into account that Ohtani is only taking up 1 roster spot for both a pitcher and position player correct? ah so WAR is run by Yahoo
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May 18, 2021 19:14
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Sydin posted:Pitcher fWAR is based almost entirely on FIP, bWAR almost entirely on RA/9. Both are imperfect (and FIP for that matter is also imperfect as an expected stat) but both are also useful. I generally prefer bWAR for pitchers though since WAR is a stat trying to quantify tangible value to a team, which bWAR mostly does even if it blames a pitcher for bad luck and bad defense around them. fWAR meanwhile tells you how valuable a particular stat says a player should have been, but that's not actually realized value. While it is true that over short (less than ~500IP) samples FIP is a better predictor of future ERA than ERA is, it is misguided to simply say FIP is an "expected" stat or what a pitcher "should" have done. FIP is simply a combined measure of K, BB, and HR. It is a descriptive stat which looks at a portion of what a pitcher has done. We have lots of such stats in baseball, AVG, OBP, SLG are all descriptive stats which only include a subset of what a hitter does for example. This doesn't mean pitcher fWAR is better or worse than bWAR, it's simply different. fWAR attempts to describe pitcher value based on K, BB, and HR, while bWAR attempts to describe pitcher value based on the runs scored while he was on the mound. Neither one is a complete picture, they're just different. Your example is oversimplified too. You can't simply say looking backward I'd rather have the 2ERA 4FIP pitcher because he allowed fewer runs than the 4ERA 2FIP guy did, because ERA (and bWAR) tell us nothing about how or why one guy allowed fewer runs. Did he play in front of a better defense? Did he benefit from sequencing and babip luck? Maybe he did, maybe he didn't, but those stats don't tell us either way. You don't know how the 4ERA guy would have pitched in the 2ERA guy's place and vice versa. edit: overall it is more accurate to describe both versions of pitcher WAR as imperfect in different ways. bWAR is overly broad, attributing/penalizing a pitcher for some things out of his control, while fWAR is arguably too narrow, attributing to a pitcher only things largely in his control but ignoring some things he also has influence over (like quality of contact). bawfuls fucked around with this message at 19:22 on May 18, 2021 |
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May 18, 2021 19:14
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You can argue semanticly that FIP is not meant to be taken as an expected stat, but that is exactly how it is taken by the analytics community at large. A guy with an ERA higher than his FIP is, for the most part, generally considered to have been unlucky or held down by a bad defense. Also I said in my original post that both fWAR and bWAR are imperfect? 
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May 18, 2021 19:29
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Saying that a guy who's ERA was higher than his FIP was lucky is not the same as saying FIP is an expected stat. We have expected stats now with statcast, things like xBA which attempt to describe what another descriptive stat is expected to be based on batted ball data. FIP is not that. It is a combination of K, BB, and HR put into a form factor to resemble ERA scaling for convenience. Much like wOBA is a linear weighting of PA outcomes put into a form to resemble OBP for convenience. FIP (and fWAR by extension) is descriptive.
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May 18, 2021 19:41
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Is there a WAR or run value stat for pitchers based on xwOBA against (launch angle, exit velocity) plus strikeouts based on innings pitched?
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May 18, 2021 19:49
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I don't think so but that would be interesting. Statcast does have xERA so you could make a crude one based on that.
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May 18, 2021 20:00
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bawfuls posted:Saying that a guy who's ERA was higher than his FIP was lucky is not the same as saying FIP is an expected stat. Again, you're arguing semantics. People largely treat FIP as an expected state for the purposes of analyzing a pitcher's performance. It is obviously very imperfect at this - hell it's imperfect at what it's actually trying to do since it doesn't account for park factors - but that is largely what it's used for. xERA is obviously better at trying to be that but nobody sites it ever whereas FIP gets sited all the time in the context of "oh this guy's been really lucky/unlucky") even when you can prove under the hood that's not true. Good Dog posted:Is there a WAR or run value stat for pitchers based on xwOBA against (launch angle, exit velocity) plus strikeouts based on innings pitched? Not really, no. The closest things for pitchers is xERA (which uses xwOBA as part of it's calculation, which does take into account quality and type of contact) and SIERA (which takes into account type of contact ie groundball, flyball, etc - but does not take into account exit velo). As far as I know though there's no formula that converts those into a WAR-type stat.
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May 18, 2021 20:01
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I mean FIP has been around for what, 15-20 years now? xERA is new with Statcast in the past 5 years maybe less. Should be no surprise then that many people still cite FIP as the go-to expected pitching rate stat. But that was kinda my point, it is an extremely common misconception to treat FIP as simply an ERA predictor rather than it's own, different, descriptor of pitcher performance.
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May 18, 2021 20:08
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https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1394682503257067529 lmao 6 fuckin parts
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May 18, 2021 20:29
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Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1394682503257067529 one for each foot of his range
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May 18, 2021 20:32
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About as likely to catch that as Jeter was likely to catch a ball near second
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May 18, 2021 20:37
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Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1394682503257067529 I'm a huge Yankee fan and I doubt that I can sit through 6 hours of this.
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May 18, 2021 20:45
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May 18, 2021 20:46
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Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1394682503257067529 gonna cover more ground with this than Jeter could.
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May 18, 2021 20:50
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6 parts is just over half the number than Ken Burns used to cover the entire history of baseball up until 2010
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May 18, 2021 20:50
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Athletics officials touring Vegas next week https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/baseball/oakland-as-officials-plan-to-tour-las-vegas-next-week-2356612/
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May 18, 2021 21:11
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Chris James 2 posted:Athletics officials touring Vegas next week https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/baseball/oakland-as-officials-plan-to-tour-las-vegas-next-week-2356612/ good
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May 18, 2021 21:13
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Chris James 2 posted:Athletics officials touring Vegas next week https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/baseball/oakland-as-officials-plan-to-tour-las-vegas-next-week-2356612/ La’s Vegas
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May 18, 2021 21:24
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I still can't take the A's threat of moving to Vegas seriously. The public in Vegas just spent $750M on the Raiders new stadium, and we are supposed to believe that they'll be forking over at least that much to build a new domed stadium for the A's now too? It's not like the A's ownership is going to foot the bill, otherwise they'd have done so in Oakland years ago. Are they going to share with the Raiders again??
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May 18, 2021 22:04
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https://twitter.com/JesseRogersESPN/status/1394762161491173379 Tlr sucks so bad Drakeno : hitting dingers Drake yes: duis mastershakeman fucked around with this message at 22:24 on May 18, 2021 |
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May 18, 2021 22:19
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TLR is going to win the world series again Also lmao it was a 3-0 count against WILLIANS ASTUDILLO on a 45mph junk ball with 2 outs in the top of the 9th winning 15-4. Thom P. Tiers fucked around with this message at 22:28 on May 18, 2021 |
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May 18, 2021 22:25
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mastershakeman posted:https://twitter.com/JesseRogersESPN/status/1394762161491173379 https://twitter.com/Warren_Dawes/status/1394764238078550020?s=19
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May 18, 2021 22:26
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lmao isn't that telegraphing to other teams' pitchers that they should pump a meatball on 3-0 since the Sox won't be allowed to swing at it? Or maybe this is 6D chess from the master.....
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May 18, 2021 22:30
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https://www.mlb.com/video/mercedes-homers-off-astudillo
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May 18, 2021 22:35
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Thom P. Tiers posted:TLR is going to win the world series again It's probably more insulting to the Twins to take there and draw out the game. At least by putting the ball in play there's a chance to end the game.
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May 18, 2021 22:38
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Also it feels like Willians Astudillo has pitched a lot this year already. Twins really not doing well. Edit: Never mind it's only been 2 IP, I guess it just feels like it's come up a lot.
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May 18, 2021 22:39
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Twins are carrying 13 pitchers on a 26-man roster but decide to let Astudillo throw batting practice during a game, just let your dudes swing away Christ, what an rear end in a top hat
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May 18, 2021 22:41
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god forbid you "show up" the *checks notes* backup catcher
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May 18, 2021 23:03
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I hope Anderson, Mercedes, and company all collectively take TLR into the bathroom and repeatedly dunk his head in the toilet until he's as soaked as he was the night he got his DUI. Also flush his rings down the toilet when they're done.
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May 18, 2021 23:07
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Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1394682503257067529  Also lmao how the gently caress is TLR still managing a team in tyool 2021
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May 18, 2021 23:17
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Because he's friends with Jerry and wanted to get back in the game, so Reinsdorf overruled his own front office to force them to hire his buddy.
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May 18, 2021 23:19
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In other news the Cubs traded Maybin the the Mets for $1. No, I'm not kidding: https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/1394773605494439937
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May 18, 2021 23:20
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TLR is such a relic. Like I'm not saying the current crop of managers is so great, but at least they're not trying to enforce this unwritten rules bullshit. loving retire already.
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May 18, 2021 23:21
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Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:He's just refusing to swing the bat and pitchers aren't throwing him strikes for whatever reason. Ah, the Carlos Santana approach.
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May 18, 2021 23:23
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https://twitter.com/jesserogersespn/status/1394775968712101891?s=21
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May 18, 2021 23:30
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https://twitter.com/mlbtraderumors/status/1394787522673324037?s=20
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May 18, 2021 23:53
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see y'all in 2022
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May 19, 2021 00:03
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