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VietCampo
Aug 24, 2010
Lamar's fine, but in this case starting Howell's not a bad thing either. If it's 6 PT passing TD, he's actually QB5 ahead of Lamar at QB9. Though the difference between them 2 is just 5 points.


So if he absolutely need the WR help, trading for Mclaurin and starting Howell works for him.

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Judgy Fucker
Mar 24, 2006

VietCampo posted:

Lamar's fine, but in this case starting Howell's not a bad thing either. If it's 6 PT passing TD, he's actually QB5 ahead of Lamar at QB9. Though the difference between them 2 is just 5 points.


So if he absolutely need the WR help, trading for Mclaurin and starting Howell works for him.

My WRs were Puka (on bye, might be bad now), Christian Kirk, Lockett, London, and Romeo Doubs. McLaurin is better than any of my active dudes and probably better than Puka right now.

In our league (4 point passing touchdown) Lamar has 15 more points than Howell on the season. I wouldn't be surprised if Lamar finishes the season with more too but Howell has been much more reliable, I have explosive potential with Kelce already and my RBs are solid. Just really needed to shore up WR and Howell seemed a minimal downgrade at absolute worst. Also getting Achane, no clue what he'll be like when he comes back but the upside is obvious.

That was all my reasoning, anyway. I appreciate everyone's opinions.

Fight Club Sandwich
Apr 29, 2006

you want a piece of me???
Does anyone pay for subscriptions to Fantasy Points or any other premium content?

I've heard pundits shill for "expected fantasy points (XFP)" from scott barrett of fantasy points as the best metric so i'd like to do an accuracy check like this for XFP vs actual fantasy points or really any gated content just to confirm my suspicions that paid experts are trash, too. PM if you have any data you'd be interested in checking.

AnacondaHL
Feb 15, 2009

I'm the lead trumpet player, playing loud and high is all I know how to do.

Fight Club Sandwich posted:

Does anyone pay for subscriptions to Fantasy Points or any other premium content?

I've heard pundits shill for "expected fantasy points (XFP)" from scott barrett of fantasy points as the best metric so i'd like to do an accuracy check like this for XFP vs actual fantasy points or really any gated content just to confirm my suspicions that paid experts are trash, too. PM if you have any data you'd be interested in checking.

You could ask the Subvertadown guy from reddit? They do accuracy reports of their model versus like 6 other top experts, including versus Vegas i.e. the actual analysis you are trying to do, but done correctly.

TBH your current crusade against fantasy experts has sounded really delusional, like you can't appreciate the nuance of just how little above average you need to be to make money off a prediction model, or be in the shark category of players, and you are reaching for data to fit your narrative rather than taking a more objective approach like the aforementioned.

edit: for reference, here is the latest accuracy report https://subvertadown.com/article/second-month-accuracy-report-2023-weeks-1---8

Chef Boyardeez Nuts
Sep 9, 2011

The more you kick against the pricks, the more you suffer.
Lol typical. Michael Thomas waits until I drop him to start catching criminal charges .

Silly Burrito
Nov 27, 2007

SET A COURSE FOR
THE FLAVOR QUADRANT

Chef Boyardeez Nuts posted:

Lol typical. Michael Thomas waits until I drop him to start catching criminal charges .

His response?

https://twitter.com/Cantguardmike/status/1723345146912158183

Floofy
Jan 17, 2004
Is Stroud/k Allen for Burrow a good trade is 0.5PPR? ( I have Burrow).

It’s redraft and I’m not in contention, where as he is. Because it’s redraft, I want to be spiteful and and say if I can’t win, neither can you. I was trying to get more out of him (aj brown) with a bigger trade if he wanted burrow that badly. My WR group is not good, so even Allen would be a big upgrade, but stroud v Burrow ROS is a bit scary how the Bengals are trending way up. Also have Kyler on the bench

Advice?

Gearman
Dec 6, 2011

Floofy posted:

Is Stroud/k Allen for Burrow a good trade is 0.5PPR? ( I have Burrow).

It’s redraft and I’m not in contention, where as he is. Because it’s redraft, I want to be spiteful and and say if I can’t win, neither can you. I was trying to get more out of him (aj brown) with a bigger trade if he wanted burrow that badly. My WR group is not good, so even Allen would be a big upgrade, but stroud v Burrow ROS is a bit scary how the Bengals are trending way up. Also have Kyler on the bench

Advice?

If you're not in contention, then you have alllll the power here because, fundamentally, they want the trade way more than you do. I would only do it if you feel really good about what you're getting.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



Fight Club Sandwich posted:

Does anyone pay for subscriptions to Fantasy Points or any other premium content?

I've heard pundits shill for "expected fantasy points (XFP)" from scott barrett of fantasy points as the best metric so i'd like to do an accuracy check like this for XFP vs actual fantasy points or really any gated content just to confirm my suspicions that paid experts are trash, too. PM if you have any data you'd be interested in checking.

Fantasy Data Points is the best fantasy football content out there. I do not use expected fantasy points because I dont know the math behind it, but I use the raw data on the sitrle for all of my basic usage model projections.

Fight Club Sandwich
Apr 29, 2006

you want a piece of me???

Sataere posted:

Fantasy Data Points is the best fantasy football content out there. I do not use expected fantasy points because I dont know the math behind it, but I use the raw data on the sitrle for all of my basic usage model projections.

I tried signing up for a free trial but it looks like a lot of the content is only available to active subscribers. Would you be interested in sharing any proj/stats to see how their accuracy holds up after the games (or season or whatever timeframe they measure) are played?

freeman
Aug 14, 2018

Floofy posted:

Is Stroud/k Allen for Burrow a good trade is 0.5PPR? ( I have Burrow).

It’s redraft and I’m not in contention, where as he is. Because it’s redraft, I want to be spiteful and and say if I can’t win, neither can you. I was trying to get more out of him (aj brown) with a bigger trade if he wanted burrow that badly. My WR group is not good, so even Allen would be a big upgrade, but stroud v Burrow ROS is a bit scary how the Bengals are trending way up. Also have Kyler on the bench

Advice?

That's a pretty big fleece but ya it's a very good trade for you. Doubt anyone in your league will complain though if you're taking Keenan Allen away from a contender.

Freaquency
May 10, 2007

"Yes I can hear you, I don't have ear cancer!"

Why is JuJu? :sigh:

Cnidario
Mar 22, 2013

How we feeling about Herbert this week

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006

Cnidario posted:

How we feeling about Herbert this week

He's a strong start over basically any streaming option. It's week 10, ride or die.

Bird in a Blender
Nov 17, 2005

It's amazing what they can do with computers these days.

Thank you Rhamondre for not being a total wasteland this week. I hate the overseas games.

Cnidario
Mar 22, 2013

Ayudo posted:

He's a strong start over basically any streaming option. It's week 10, ride or die.

Yeah, on second thought, he’s not playing against the Jets, so it makes more sense to start him over Stroud

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

ON TO THE NEXT PAGE!
Anybody rolling out Conner this week? I’ll take my lumps if he pops off on the bench but I’m a little wary of starting the guy just coming off of IR. Plus that Falcons run D don’t gently caress around.

MacheteZombie
Feb 4, 2007

Whoreson Welles posted:

Anybody rolling out Conner this week? I’ll take my lumps if he pops off on the bench but I’m a little wary of starting the guy just coming off of IR. Plus that Falcons run D don’t gently caress around.

I am because Downs was too risky.

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

lol I have Kyle Hamilton in IDP and benched him this week

Matt Zerella
Oct 7, 2002

Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)
Can’t wait to roll into the Toilet Bowl bracket starting Achane and Mitchell lol

Docjowles
Apr 9, 2009

Pro: I have added Keaton Mitchell where I could

Con: on my bench

Matt Zerella
Oct 7, 2002

Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)
Apparently I sat Bijan for Mitchell and I do not remember doing that.

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

Christian Watson dropping passes faster than I dropped him from my fantasy team

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006

Matt Zerella posted:

Apparently I sat Bijan for Mitchell and I do not remember doing that.

Tyler Durden doing you a solid with his lineup moves while you're asleep.

Bird in a Blender
Nov 17, 2005

It's amazing what they can do with computers these days.

I hate when I waffle on a guy because the one I bench inevitably puts up big points. This week it’s tank dell.

Kilometers Davis
Jul 9, 2007

They begin again

I hate it but I might have to drop TLaw. He’s my big beautiful blonde knight but that schedule ain’t great and the Jags ain’t cookin’.

Chernabog
Apr 16, 2007



My team is collectively collapsing. At least it was all during the same week.

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

Kilometers Davis posted:

I hate it but I might have to drop TLaw. He’s my big beautiful blonde knight but that schedule ain’t great and the Jags ain’t cookin’.

Wouldn’t blame you. Jags suck

Bird in a Blender
Nov 17, 2005

It's amazing what they can do with computers these days.

Chernabog posted:

My team is collectively collapsing. At least it was all during the same week.

Both me and my opponent are having terrible days. So I guess I can’t complain. Olave has yet to show up and I’m wondering if he’s even in the game.

Dango Bango
Jul 26, 2007

Dango Bango posted:

I think that game's a shootout and Stroud finishes top 10 in QB scoring

:smug:

But then again...

Dango Bango posted:

Lmao I just traded Olave and Kittle for Etienne in my non PPR league.

I'M FREE OF OLAVE

Olave and Kittle both have big plays this week and Etienne is sitting on 4.4 :lol:

Bellmaker
Oct 18, 2008

Chapter DOOF



Bellmaker posted:

I’m hoping this is what finally makes Olave go off as an Olave-haver :pray:

:tipshat:

Judgy Fucker
Mar 24, 2006

Bird in a Blender posted:

I hate when I waffle on a guy because the one I bench inevitably puts up big points. This week it’s tank dell.

My opponent flexed Dell :negative:

Anti-Hero
Feb 26, 2004
gently caress, my team imploded. So did my opponents.

Jakobi Meyers of Jahan Dotson?

Bear in mind I’m also starting Howell, Logan Thomas.m, and the SEA DST. That’s a lot of eggs in one basket!

I hate both of these matchups, but gut is telling me Dotson is the better play but it looks bad in light of all the players involved in that one game.

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

I have a legit decision to make about starting a rookie QB in Stroud over Mahomes moving forward

Gearman
Dec 6, 2011

kiimo posted:

I have a legit decision to make about starting a rookie QB in Stroud over Mahomes moving forward

Sounds like you want to play Stroud and trade Mahomes!

THIS_IS_FINE
May 21, 2001

Slippery Tilde
Just staring at the 24 points Noah Brown put up sitting on my bench.

mega dy
Dec 6, 2003

Man Gibbs is looking really good. I might have to offer Deandre Swift to our resident Eagles homer for him.

Freezer
Apr 20, 2001

The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Kilometers Davis posted:

I hate it but I might have to drop TLaw. He’s my big beautiful blonde knight but that schedule ain’t great and the Jags ain’t cookin’.

Total drop.

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

ON TO THE NEXT PAGE!

THIS_IS_FINE posted:

Just staring at the 24 points Noah Brown put up sitting on my bench.

Yeah I hosed up with him this week, picked him up but then dropped him for Khalil Shakir when Woods was coming back. Unfortunately someone else grabben him by the time I saw Diggs was healthy.

Bummer!

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FAT32 SHAMER
Aug 16, 2012



mega dy posted:

Man Gibbs is looking really good. I might have to offer Deandre Swift to our resident Eagles homer for him.

Monty owners be like 📉📉📉

☹️

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