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cinci zoo sniper posted:I recall a few people musing in the thread on the mystery of vanishing cope cages. Seems like we have an answer: I think sanctions should continue on Russia indefinitely. They should be made far more complete. There should never be any trade between them and the West until the Russian state collapses.
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May 26, 2022 17:39
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What is the current timeline/prognosis for the servicing of Russia's debt?
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May 26, 2022 17:40
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cinci zoo sniper posted:They approached it within a few kilometres yesterday, that’s not surprising to hear today. It's kind of a negative milestone. They're def getting cut off unless something significant changes about the situation
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May 26, 2022 17:53
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mlmp08 posted:Okay. Since day zero I have thought Russia should not have invaded Ukraine, and it was an aggressive and unjust act, and that’s what I’ve said who knows how many times. I do take it as exceptionally crass to say the situation is “great” for everyone except Russia. It isn’t great. The war sucks, and voyeurs with zero skin in the game continue to act like this is a game where you rack up anti-Russia points the longer the fighting continues. Ukraine and Russia will ultimately decide how this war ends, but it’s not great to have drawn out conflict just because Americans and select Europeans can watch Russian military might die while Americans and other Europeans remain safe. The situation is awful. The fastest way for it to end would be for Russia to just stop. But since that won’t happen any time soon, in the meantime, no, it’s not a great situation. Yeah I’m on board with you, calling it "great" for everyone but Russia seems either ghoulish or more likely in this context, cluelessly or carelessly worded. Europe loses (many things are more expensive now), Ukraine super loses (economy torn to poo poo, tens of thousands or more dead by the end), Russia loses (economy takes a hit, isolation likely for a generation), Africa and the poorer parts of Asia and MENA lose (food much more expensive), etc. The US is the only country to benefit - and even there the only benefit is geopolitical, as normal people will see no real effect either way. For Europe it’s very hard to tell cause and effect for how Europeans are affected by the war though since inflation was surging before, but this certainly didn’t help, with inflation running at like 7-9% right now, or even higher if you include increased energy costs.
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May 26, 2022 17:53
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Discendo Vox posted:What is the current timeline/prognosis for the servicing of Russia's debt? quote:On May 27, interest payments on Russia's international bonds, half of which are held by foreign investors, will be due. Another payment will be due across two Eurobonds on June 23.
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May 26, 2022 17:54
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The US is not "benefiting" from a war that now seems like it's going to cause enormous amounts of global instability. The grain and fertilizer shortages alone could be catastrophic, all over the world. The US "wants" the world to be calm and to buy up our poo poo and to sell us their poo poo. It does not want chaos, war, and famine.
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May 26, 2022 17:56
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Saladman posted:I see people quote the Kyiv Independent a lot and -- not directed at you specifically -- is that really any more reliable regarding the Ukraine War than quoting RT? Well, they cite their source (the UK ministry of defense), have reporters on the ground talking with operational commanders, and try to be specific with their facts and sources in general. Are they biased? Sure, in the sense of "gently caress Russia for invading our country and committing genocide against our people." But propaganda? Certainly not in the sense of being a state-controlled entity that tries to manipulate the population to follow certain narratives. In some things in life, there are not "two sides" to the story. There are just facts, and opinions about those facts. KI seems to do a good job with both. RT does neither: it goes into full Fox News territory dialed to 11, which in grade school we used to call "making poo poo up."
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May 26, 2022 17:58
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 Ukrainian perception of Russia --- positive or negative --- over time. I think you can figure out which line is which....
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May 26, 2022 18:03
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mlmp08 posted:Okay. Since day zero I have thought Russia should not have invaded Ukraine, and it was an aggressive and unjust act, and that’s what I’ve said who knows how many times. I do take it as exceptionally crass to say the situation is “great” for everyone except Russia. It isn’t great. The war sucks, and voyeurs with zero skin in the game continue to act like this is a game where you rack up anti-Russia points the longer the fighting continues. Ukraine and Russia will ultimately decide how this war ends, but it’s not great to have drawn out conflict just because Americans and select Europeans can watch Russian military might die while Americans and other Europeans remain safe. The situation is awful. The fastest way for it to end would be for Russia to just stop. But since that won’t happen any time soon, in the meantime, no, it’s not a great situation. For what it’s worth, I fully agree with you that it’s borderline psychotic to describe the situation as great. I just meant to clarify why you’re receiving a specific reaction from some posters.
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May 26, 2022 18:06
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OddObserver posted:
Mostly, I'm surprised that so many Ukrainians still had a positive view of Russia between 2014 and the start of the current war.
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May 26, 2022 18:06
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GSV gently caress Your God posted:I think sanctions should continue on Russia indefinitely. They should be made far more complete. There should never be any trade between them and the West until the Russian state collapses. The kicker for sanctions poll is under the fold, actually: https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1529620305534140416 aphid_licker posted:It's kind of a negative milestone. They're def getting cut off unless something significant changes about the situation My armchair gut feeling is that “tough situation in Sievierodonetsk” is going to be the understatement of this month.
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May 26, 2022 18:12
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How are u posted:The US is not "benefiting" from a war that now seems like it's going to cause enormous amounts of global instability. The grain and fertilizer shortages alone could be catastrophic, all over the world. The US "wants" the world to be calm and to buy up our poo poo and to sell us their poo poo. It does not want chaos, war, and famine. It is by far the least bad option. Allowing a decline of liberal democracy and a return of barbaric wars of territorial conquest would be far worse. This is an opportunity to bring an end to that chapter of history.
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May 26, 2022 18:13
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mlmp08 posted:Okay. Since day zero I have thought Russia should not have invaded Ukraine, and it was an aggressive and unjust act, and that’s what I’ve said who knows how many times. I do take it as exceptionally crass to say the situation is “great” for everyone except Russia. It isn’t great. The war sucks, and voyeurs with zero skin in the game continue to act like this is a game where you rack up anti-Russia points the longer the fighting continues. Ukraine and Russia will ultimately decide how this war ends, but it’s not great to have drawn out conflict just because Americans and select Europeans can watch Russian military might die while Americans and other Europeans remain safe. The situation is awful. The fastest way for it to end would be for Russia to just stop. But since that won’t happen any time soon, in the meantime, no, it’s not a great situation. I think there is a miscommunication going on. I read the other post as 'the arms shipments and aid given to Ukraine is great for everyone' - not the war itself. Maybe I'm naive and it really was about the war. But in the context of helping Ukraine resist the invasion, that is for good of (almost) everyone, I believe. We've seen in Butcha and Mariupol what inability to resist properly leads to. But yeah the war sucks greatly for Ukraine. If they reclaimed everything including Crimea tomorrow and got massive war reparations on top, it would still be tragedy and a great calamity. The war is bad, but help given is good. Anyone who wants help to stop so Ukraine can lose faster is either deluded or has another agenda. I'm not accusing you of this - I did not read your posts as pro-Russian. I read them as anti-war. The post about 'this is great' should have been more specific about the assumption that the war is not great, but given the war is already here, helping Ukraine is good.
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May 26, 2022 18:15
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Rigel posted:It is by far the least bad option. Allowing a decline of liberal democracy and a return of barbaric wars of territorial conquest would be far worse. This is an opportunity to bring an end to that chapter of history. I agree that this must be seen through. Putin launched an unprovoked war of imperial conquest, is clearly irrational, and can only be stopped by force. I'm pushing back against the idea that somehow the US is benefiting from this and wants the war and is encouraging it. Nobody but Putin wants this loving war. I hope he dies screaming.
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May 26, 2022 18:18
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Phlegmish posted:Mostly, I'm surprised that so many Ukrainians still had a positive view of Russia between 2014 and the start of the current war. IIRC from other polling I've seen, the view of Putin in particular was way lower, but not quite as low as I expected at that point. Like before 2014 Ukrainians we're ambivalent about Putin and overwhelmingly positive about Russia, after 2014 they became ambivalent about Russia and heavily, though not nearly universally, negative about Putin, and now they are near universally negative about both.
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May 26, 2022 18:19
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Phlegmish posted:Mostly, I'm surprised that so many Ukrainians still had a positive view of Russia between 2014 and the start of the current war. I more surprised about the 6% undecided. There real does always seem to be that 1/20 people who just seem to exist to gently caress with the people taking the survey.
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May 26, 2022 18:20
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https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1529868610939805698
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May 26, 2022 18:20
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dr_rat posted:I more surprised about the 6% undecided. There real does always seem to be that 1/20 people who just seem to exist to gently caress with the people taking the survey.
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May 26, 2022 18:27
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cinci zoo sniper posted:The kicker for sanctions poll is under the fold, actually: It's part of Putin's official narrative. Russia is not only part of Europe, it preserves and protect traditional European values that the West has abandoned. Just like Moscow is supposed to be the real Rome, Russia is the real Europe.
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May 26, 2022 18:28
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Article is in English. https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1529867494537711617
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May 26, 2022 18:30
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How are u posted:The US is not "benefiting" from a war that now seems like it's going to cause enormous amounts of global instability. The grain and fertilizer shortages alone could be catastrophic, all over the world. The US "wants" the world to be calm and to buy up our poo poo and to sell us their poo poo. It does not want chaos, war, and famine. Putin is an existential threat to western democracies and alliances. FSB backs Trump's Deutschebank loans and funded the NRA (America's gun lobby). FSB is thought to have had some hand in swaying Brexit polls and the rise of far right movements throughout Europe. Also, when Syrain refugees started landing in Europe, far right racist groups seized on xenophobia and made electoral gains. Getting Putin and his influence (or perceived influence) on western democracies is worth the effort alone.
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May 26, 2022 18:35
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mlmp08 posted:Okay. Since day zero I have thought Russia should not have invaded Ukraine, and it was an aggressive and unjust act, and that’s what I’ve said who knows how many times. I do take it as exceptionally crass to say the situation is “great” for everyone except Russia. It isn’t great. The war sucks, and voyeurs with zero skin in the game continue to act like this is a game where you rack up anti-Russia points the longer the fighting continues. Ukraine and Russia will ultimately decide how this war ends, but it’s not great to have drawn out conflict just because Americans and select Europeans can watch Russian military might die while Americans and other Europeans remain safe. The situation is awful. The fastest way for it to end would be for Russia to just stop. But since that won’t happen any time soon, in the meantime, no, it’s not a great situation. and to go further, I disagree it benefits Europe as declared by Warbadger. It is Russia's fault its gone sideways but it was in Western European interests to have the trade and energy with Russia it had. It does not benefit France or Germany to have all that trade wrecked, the millions of refugees spread through the EU and a potentially multi-year war situated in the food basket of Europe. Europe's standing in its own spears of influence (West Africa is what I know about most) is getting shaken. The Sahel was not a nice place to be anyway but food and fuel pricing has dramatically increased and the governments are scrambling to keep the power on in the cities and to stave of riots (they are already happening). It's not in China's interests as bordering an unstable nuclear power embroiled in a WWI Germany vs France style conflict to its north rather than the pre-war/2014 stable Russia. India is in a tough spot of maintaining neutrality that is important to its own interests. I would go as far to say that the US is one of the few places the war is great for. No own soldier deaths, distraction from internal gun shootings and other divisive internal issues, writing modest checks (nothing of the scale of Iraq/Afghanistan) to its own MIC, European powers embarrassed/compromised and subverted to US direction, significantly increased MIC spending across the board which will doubtlessly benefit the US above all. On Russia, I agree with the above poster, Russia predicted/gambled that it would go like Crimea did (ie, sharp actions, little green men, rigged elections and a gut load of cash combined with a lot of supervision after to quell unrest ala Crimea/Chechnya) but they got their sums wrong and intelligence insufficient, resistance was far stronger and their military found wanting operating at a scale it had not done since Soviet times. Local resistance and improperly prepared troops and systems means reprisal attacks by Russian troops and leadership that furthered resistance and unified Western world grass roots opposition. In short, Russia has visited a disaster upon the world through hubris and megalomania. The same bullshit that seen the US go into Iraq in 2003 with broadly similar results (The invading country got stuck where it didn't want to be after only three months, world economy depressed, refugees in the millions, deaths in the hundreds of thousands because making a short sharp action followed by cash and supervision work is harder than it looks). Pro-war is not Pro-Ukraine. Being anti-war is not anti-Ukraine. There is a macabre fascination with war but it is most assuredly absolutely disastrous for most people it touches.
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May 26, 2022 18:59
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Electric Wrigglies posted:I would go as far to say that the US is one of the few places the war is great for. It's not. It may be less bad for the US than many other places, but its still bad and still causing global instability and could still set off all sorts of awful knock-on effects in the near future. This war is not good for the US.
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May 26, 2022 19:05
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You gotta love the kind of interviewer that says, "Don't hold yourself back!"
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May 26, 2022 19:06
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https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1529869494704869376 Anyone knows whose numbers he’s quoting here? I assume it’s US DoD, but I cannot tell for sure.
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May 26, 2022 19:10
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1529869494704869376 I suspect a large portion are still mix and match of other BTGs.
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May 26, 2022 19:13
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Wildeyes posted:You gotta love the kind of interviewer that says, "Don't hold yourself back!" I think I would enjoy seeing Zelensky on Hot Ones.
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May 26, 2022 19:15
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Totally normal rain in the east https://twitter.com/Harri_Est/status/1529739991777255426  https://twitter.com/apmassaro3/status/1529807137018363904
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May 26, 2022 19:15
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How are u posted:It's not. It may be less bad for the US than many other places, but its still bad and still causing global instability and could still set off all sorts of awful knock-on effects in the near future. This war is not good for the US. It is beneficial for specifically US imperial interests. It's revitalized NATO as an institution and rehabilitated the image of US interventionism at home after failed middle eastern adventurism wounded both, and drained the resources of a major rival that, at least regionally, has been successfully challenging US influence.
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May 26, 2022 19:18
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fool of sound posted:It is beneficial for specifically US imperial interests. It's revitalized NATO as an institution and rehabilitated the image of US interventionism at home after failed middle eastern adventurism wounded both, and drained the resources of a major rival that, at least regionally, has been successfully challenging US influence. Those are a few upsides from what is overwhelmingly a bad thing for the US and the world. Nobody is coming out better, here. e: And my broader point is to push back against the idea that the US wants this war, is encouraging this war, and wants it to continue.
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May 26, 2022 19:19
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How are u posted:The US is not "benefiting" from a war that now seems like it's going to cause enormous amounts of global instability. The grain and fertilizer shortages alone could be catastrophic, all over the world. The US "wants" the world to be calm and to buy up our poo poo and to sell us their poo poo. It does not want chaos, war, and famine. I'd like to add that the US probably also doesn't enjoy being the constant target of nuclear threats from Russia just to help out a country that it isn't officially allied with. Dealing with Russia is a dicey game of escalation and deescalation that we'd all be happy not to play.
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May 26, 2022 19:20
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Wildeyes posted:I'd like to add that the US probably also doesn't enjoy being the constant target of nuclear threats from Russia just to help out a country that it isn't officially allied with. Dealing with Russia is a dicey game of escalation and deescalation that we'd all be happy not to play. Yeah I think its safe to assume we've weighed the short term pain against the potential possibility of thwarting russia's efforts on the international stage and found that there's a really good chance the world ends up a much better place without an aggressive/hegemonic russia in it anymore.
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May 26, 2022 19:25
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So it sounds like Russia is using deep operations doctrine to mass artillery fire on particular zones and then breaking through because everything there has been leveled. Is there no effective counter for this?
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May 26, 2022 19:45
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Kraftwerk posted:So it sounds like Russia is using deep operations doctrine to mass artillery fire on particular zones and then breaking through because everything there has been leveled. Other artillery or airplanes bombing Russian artillery before it shoots, which is not something Ukraine can do at a scale yet, at least reading the official statements between the lines (they’ve been focusing heavily on trying to get western MLRS system in the recent week or two.
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May 26, 2022 19:49
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Kraftwerk posted:So it sounds like Russia is using deep operations doctrine to mass artillery fire on particular zones and then breaking through because everything there has been leveled. Counterbattery fire to make using massed artillery risky. Much like Ukraine hunted down the Russian MLRS systems in the Kyiv region.
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May 26, 2022 19:49
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Kraftwerk posted:So it sounds like Russia is using deep operations doctrine to mass artillery fire on particular zones and then breaking through because everything there has been leveled. There's no counter to it in the sense of rock paper scissors, no. The other side crawls out of their holes and calls down fire on advancing columns and counterbattery on the artillery. The essence of modern combat is that everyone has a lot of firepower and you really don't want to be spotted.
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May 26, 2022 19:50
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Kraftwerk posted:So it sounds like Russia is using deep operations doctrine to mass artillery fire on particular zones and then breaking through because everything there has been leveled. Not really without time or equipment that Ukraine doesn't have. You fight mass artillery with either extremely fortified positions (think heavy concrete or massive trench networks), or airpower to neutralize the artillery. You can theoretically defend by attacking if you are able to mass enough fast-moving forces to get into the rear areas, but Ukraine doesn't have that ability either.
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May 26, 2022 19:54
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Then it sounds like Russia is gonna seize Donetsk and Luhansk, dig in and hope the west stops arming Ukraine while they annex these territories and sue for peace.
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May 26, 2022 19:56
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https://twitter.com/Prune602/status/1529880345557991424 Reminder that are pundits who think we should appease Russia because of these temper tantrums they have when they don't get their way (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 26, 2022 19:59
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Kraftwerk posted:So it sounds like Russia is using deep operations doctrine to mass artillery fire on particular zones and then breaking through because everything there has been leveled. I don't think this is really Deep Battle. They're not making breaches and then sending follow-on mechanized forces as far forward as they can and then digging in. It's more akin to a bite-and-hold type of attritional doctrine. It seems that Russia is showing more tactical competence, but their operational approach appears very ad-hoc from the outside. Edit: Pook Good Mook posted:Not really without time or equipment that Ukraine doesn't have. I think one of the challenges in the Donbass is that it's a relatively small area, so Russian forces are concentrated to the degree that infiltration is much harder to accomplish (versus, say, a 40km-long convoy). Ynglaur fucked around with this message at 20:03 on May 26, 2022 |
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May 26, 2022 19:59
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