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Rea posted:NYT/Siena always ends up with high undecideds, yeah. I still don't entirely get what's going on, but I'm not confident enough to call it a mistake or methodological error. Nate Cohn has pushed back on this, but the standard criticism is that their pollers don't push to get an answer from undecided voters to the same extent that other polling firms do.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:44
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TulliusCicero posted:Is there something about the Texas Panhandle that causes no matter what ethnicity or gender you are to become the most Republican of hardcore Republicans? The brain worms are native to this area - it’s their ancestral homeland.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:44
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Worth adding on that poll: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320783025043656705?s=19
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Oct 26, 2020 18:46
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perhaps we shouldn't be placing latino voters on a pedestal wherein their votes for trump are actually biden's fault and not their own choice. there is a distinction between biden not doing enough outreach to latino voters (which, maybe?) and presuming that biden should, by default, win every latino voter, and every vote he loses is directly his fault.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:46
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I don't have a problem with the Biden campaign having Kamala spend one day in Texas. 1.) She's not the top of the ticket (or Obama, who's in Florida as I type this IIRC), 2.) even if she was, a single day's campaign visit isn't going to have a seismic effect on Texas or any state, 3.) it's not like Biden hasn't already been spending more time in the rust belt or Florida than Hillary did or than he's spent in Texas and 4.) Biden could lose Texas by 5 points and still carry a ton of new D's into the state legislature, which we should all remember could be enormously consequential. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320775564421144576?s=20
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Oct 26, 2020 18:47
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evilweasel posted:i mean, taking a reality that exists only in your head and extrapolating from it is sure a thing, but outside of the trump campaign and a handful of other Houses Of Nuttery this view of biden is shared by basically nobody, so assuming the entire hispanic population of texas is voting based on it is a stretch It's not just in my head though, at his town hall a young black voter called Biden out for the crime bill and his "you aint black" comments, those things happened. The polls show the same thing, it would be great if the polls are wrong and Biden wins Texas, but just assuming they must be wrong and latino voters will all come out for Biden because there's a dang cheeto in the white house is confusing what you want to be true with what is true.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:47
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MaoistBanker posted:Keith knew. Who is that woman laughing, again? I can't remember the panel any longer.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:49
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Antifa Turkeesian posted:10% undecided seems gigantic compared to other states. Is that normal for this pollster/state? Yes - their polls have much higher undecideds to such a degree he did a twitter thread on why a few days ago. But note that it is "other/undecided" rather than just undecided.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:50
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:perhaps we shouldn't be placing latino voters on a pedestal wherein their votes for trump are actually biden's fault and not their own choice. there is a distinction between biden not doing enough outreach to latino voters (which, maybe?) and presuming that biden should, by default, win every latino voter, and every vote he loses is directly his fault. Like, women shifting away from Trump is certainly "their own choice" but their choice very obviously took into account stuff Trump did that he had the ability not to do.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:50
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Is it worth it to compare 2016 and 2020's confidence intervals from 538? It seems like they were too different of political climates to really compare. (HRC's investigation and Trump contracting COVID)
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Oct 26, 2020 18:52
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VitalSigns posted:This is a weird take, people's choices are obviously affected by what candidates do, since if a candidate does something lovely some people will decide they don't want to vote for a candidate that lovely. do you have any evidence that latino voters are voting against biden because of his history and not for trump because they find trump's specific platform appealing? obviously theres interplay for both but you don't seem to acknowledge what the article is pointing to - that voters are specifically choosing trump because they find his "businessman" approach a good thing and want to vote for it. like, your argument seems to be "everyone knows that biden is a horrible racist who loathes hispanic people, it absolutely makes sense that these voters are voting for trump and its bidens fault for not apologizing for his record!". it seems to working hard to excuse the agency of the voters, trump's own actions, and assuming a granular level of knowledge of biden's record that doesn't seem to be reflected anywhere. also i'm not sure what the crime bill and strom thurmand has to do with hispanic voters in texas. Seven Hundred Bee fucked around with this message at 18:56 on Oct 26, 2020 |
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Oct 26, 2020 18:53
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VitalSigns posted:there's a dang cheeto in the white house let's not do this in this thread
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Oct 26, 2020 18:54
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Xotl posted:Who is that woman laughing, again? I can't remember the panel any longer. That's Maggie Haberman, who now gets paid six figures to report how Trump is so lonely every week in the NYT.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:54
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CmdrRiker posted:Is it worth it to compare 2016 and 2020's confidence intervals from 538? It seems like they were too different of political climates to really compare. (HRC's investigation and Trump contracting COVID) Probably not considering they're not even the same model: the current 538 model has a big uncertainty fudge factor put in.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:55
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Numbers like that suggest that there a decent amount of Latinos that see immigration as a FYGM issue.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:57
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:do you have any evidence that latino voters are voting against biden because of his history and not for trump because they find trump's specific platform appealing? I guess it's possible that a bunch of people just started loving Trump's platform regardless of anything Biden did, but assuming that must be the case in order to absolve Biden of his racist record and his extremely poor treatment of nonwhite voters just seems like motivated reasoning to me. E: quote:also i'm not sure what the crime bill and strom thurmand has to do with hispanic voters in texas. VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 18:59 on Oct 26, 2020 |
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Oct 26, 2020 18:57
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Grouchio posted:So the NYT/Siena poll being somewhat inaccurate is a bit of an understatement. Similar to pollsters who have refused to weight for education this year, there are reasons to believe that there may be systematic polling error and that, as opposed to noncollege white voters, may be a structural error in Biden's favor. The takeaway from the NYT poll is that it's a somewhat competitive state and that there are some reasons to believe Texas polls specifically undercount a group that leans heavily Biden. Compare it to a 47-43-10 result for Biden in Minnesota or Michigan that may be structurally undercounting rural white voters without a college degree. As it was before the NYT, Biden has a chance in Texas and the polling suggests that Texas' white suburban Republican gerrymander may be about to backfire spectacularly and give Dems a chamber even if Biden doesn't win. Also an evergreen reminder that this thread supports humane fishing and encourages you to not take the bait.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:59
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exquisite tea posted:That's Maggie Haberman, who now gets paid six figures to report how Trump is so lonely every week in the NYT. Perfect, thanks.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:59
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Other Nate has a long twitter thread basically saying, in essence: yes their polling was specifically pretty bad with hispanics in 2018 and led to a lot of misses but why he does not believe that is currently the case here (basically, he thinks they got turnout wrong). https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320784338561175552 VitalSigns posted:His platform hasn't really changed since 2016, so that doesn't really explain the shift. assuming that people share your personal, fringe belief when all evidence shows they do not is not reasonable. there are many explanations that have been put forward, at length, all of which you have ignored in favor of a belief that people view biden as an out of control racist while they obviously and clearly in every poll on the subject do not. evilweasel fucked around with this message at 19:03 on Oct 26, 2020 |
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Oct 26, 2020 19:00
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VitalSigns posted:His platform hasn't really changed since 2016, so that doesn't really explain the shift. we're talking about young hispanic men in particular, so presumably some of them wern't eligible to vote in 2016 or didn't vote in 2016. or hispanic voters who are actually happy with trump's immigration policy (hispanic voters are actually fairly split on approval/disapproval of trump's immigration policy). or hispanic voters who like trump's tax policy. or - and this is a point that i've read elsewhere - that young hispanic men (and african american men) appreciate trump's gross public persona because it represents a level of "getting away with being a piece of poo poo without consequences" that they aspire to in the sense of social capital and power.
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Oct 26, 2020 19:01
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Men are swinging republican, it doesn't matter what their ethnicity is. I have a hard time believing it's because of Joe Biden's previous stances on crime or some statements he made earlier in the year.
Grondoth fucked around with this message at 19:04 on Oct 26, 2020 |
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Oct 26, 2020 19:02
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Grondoth posted:Men are swinging republican, it doesn't matter what their ethnicity is. Is this a new thing or has it been part of the race all along? Specifically, did this start when the Dems added a woman to the ticket?
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Oct 26, 2020 19:04
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Majorian posted:Even so, Biden's failure to reach out to Latino voters effectively is a well-documented phenomenon: I am not going to dispute that Biden's or for that matter the Democratic Party has issues with Hispanics but the claim that "Biden puts kids in cages and no different than Trump on immigration" is simply not true. It's highly misleading. The Republican Party should be attracting Hispanics because there more keen on capitalism and tend to be slightly socially conservative such as abortion for example.
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Oct 26, 2020 19:04
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VitalSigns posted:His platform hasn't really changed since 2016, so that doesn't really explain the shift. I don't recall Trump talking about the wall anymore, or him denigrating Latinos as a bunch of drug-addled rapist murderers. That alone should get Trump some points.
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Oct 26, 2020 19:04
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PostNouveau posted:I've got no evidence, but I would assume Hispanics in the Southwest are more likely than elsewhere in the country to not be first or second generation immigrants. A lot of families in those areas had the border change around them rather than immigrate. I think there's probably a fundamental difference if you or your parents were immigrants and there's a hard-core anti-immigrant on the ballot vs. your family lived in the same region for 6 generations That's the main thing, 'Hispanic' barely makes sense as a demographic category. You've got people from all races and combinations thereof, and also people who lived in the US before it was the US versus people who immigrated last year. However, in Texas? As far as I know the vast majority of Hispanics there are of Mexican descent, and Trump has singled those out specifically. I wouldn't expect him to do well with them.
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Oct 26, 2020 19:05
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https://mobile.twitter.com/Mediaite/status/1320785268102860801 More bad news for Trump, 17million viewers (will change with more official numbers) saw his meltdown on Sunday. That with what meadows said earlier in the morning is just really bad news cycles going into the last week. Oh yeah and the VP’s office becoming a hot zone, remember how they said they just needed to control more news cycles than Biden and they’d win?
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Oct 26, 2020 19:06
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TwoQuestions posted:I don't recall Trump talking about the wall anymore, or him denigrating Latinos as a bunch of drug-addled rapist murderers. That alone should get Trump some points. You have not watched any recent Trump speech if you think he does not talk about (1) how he totally, actually has already built the wall, and (2) how immigrants are murderers and rapists and animals in gangs killing whites it's less of a centerpoint of his campaign this time but that poo poo has not gone away, at all
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Oct 26, 2020 19:08
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PostNouveau posted:Is this a new thing or has it been part of the race all along? It showed up in 2016 and 2018
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Oct 26, 2020 19:09
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PostNouveau posted:Is this a new thing or has it been part of the race all along? It's been happening since 2004. It's grown every election since. I don't know why, but I'm willing to bet that it's cause of the cultural side they've taken. There's not a lot of women who want to roll coal, and machismo is a very important part of fascism, which we all can see was the end point of the conservative movement. I can see this being the high water mark for the split because Trump is basically an abusive husband, but who knows.
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Oct 26, 2020 19:10
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eke out posted:You have not watched any recent Trump speech if you think he does not talk about (1) how he totally, actually has already built the wall, and (2) how immigrants are murderers and rapists and animals in gangs killing whites Right, but at this point in time many Latinos do not view themselves as 'immigrants', nor can they reasonably be described as such. If there really is a shift towards Republicans among them, it's an entirely predictable one. No one wonders how an Irish-American or Italian-American could ever bring themselves to vote for the nativist Republicans.
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Oct 26, 2020 19:11
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eke out posted:You have not watched any recent Trump speech if you think he does not talk about (1) how he totally, actually has already built the wall, and (2) how immigrants are murderers and rapists and animals in gangs killing whites I do not, save the debates, which I meant to specify but didn't. Thanks for the heads up.
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Oct 26, 2020 19:11
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As someone who lives in Southern California and has spent a lot of time in places like Glassell Park, Boyle Heights, etc. there is a definite FYGM attitude towards undocumented immigrants, especially amongst Latino men.
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Oct 26, 2020 19:11
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MaoistBanker posted:As someone who lives in Southern California and has spent a lot of time in places like Glassell Park, Boyle Heights, etc. there is a definite FYGM attitude towards undocumented immigrants, especially amongst Latino men. FYGM has been the American attitude towards immigration ever since Jamestown.
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Oct 26, 2020 19:16
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Grondoth posted:Men are swinging republican, it doesn't matter what their ethnicity is. I have a hard time believing it's because of Joe Biden's previous stances on crime or some statements he made earlier in the year. Yeah, let’s just accept that non white working class men are moving over. They just are. But white suburbanites vote in much higher numbers-college grads vote in huge turnout. Dems are adopting super reliable white middle class voters. Republicans are converting core Dem voters with a long long history of spacing out and not showing up. There’s also the factor that existing vote suppression systems are set up to help friendly white suburbanites and crush black and Hispanic working class men because of their previous voting history. Many Dem turnout dreams have been crushed by waiting for working class Black and Hispanic men to show up. Now it’s Trump’s problem. Plano wine moms voted last week.
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Oct 26, 2020 19:17
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VitalSigns posted:His platform hasn't really changed since 2016, so that doesn't really explain the shift. Have you considered that minority Trump voters are pieces of poo poo just like white Trump voters? The problem here is that you're trying to apply swing voter effects to people who never gave any indication that they are swing voters. They didn't move to Trump. If they voted in 2016, they voted for him. Polls have shown swing voters in the single digits for months. You are starting with the assumption that Biden made these people into Trump supporters and then cherry picking for an outlier poll with crosstabs that fits this assumption. This is why people aren't giving your argument any creedence.
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Oct 26, 2020 19:19
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Phlegmish posted:Right, but at this point in time many Latinos do not view themselves as 'immigrants', nor can they reasonably be described as such. If there really is a shift towards Republicans among them, it's an entirely predictable one. No one wonders how an Irish-American or Italian-American could ever bring themselves to vote for the nativist Republicans. right, you see the same phenomenon in reverse among people of cuban descent in Florida, where millenials/zoomers no longer vote republican in abnormal numbers and instead vote about like you'd expect someone of their age to. the umbrella classification becomes less and less useful as there are more diverse groups with differing economic status, national origin, etc, that do not vote the same way (which, i understand, isn't so much of a problem in texas where the demo is still predominantly mexican origin, but the class differences within the group goes a long way to explaining the differences in voting behavior)
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Oct 26, 2020 19:20
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Xombie posted:Have you considered that minority Trump voters are pieces of poo poo just like white Trump voters? The problem here is that you're trying to apply swing voter effects to people who never gave any indication that they are swing voters. They didn't move to Trump. If they voted in 2016, they voted for him. Polls have shown swing voters in the single digits for months. I wouldn't rule out a T+4 poll in Texas as an outlier. I would say, however, that making strong claims based on a single poll's crosstabs is never a good idea because of the low sample size. Particularly when your thesis (that it is widely accepted that biden is a racist monster) is utterly discredited by, say, polling on the public's view of biden.
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Oct 26, 2020 19:21
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Grondoth posted:Men are swinging republican, it doesn't matter what their ethnicity is. I have a hard time believing it's because of Joe Biden's previous stances on crime or some statements he made earlier in the year. This is not a swing, men as a whole have always overwhelmingly voted Republican. Men who weren't willing to vote for Hillary last time aren't "swinging" away from Biden.
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Oct 26, 2020 19:21
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Nieuw Amsterdam posted:There’s also the factor that existing vote suppression systems are set up to help friendly white suburbanites and crush black and Hispanic working class men because of their previous voting history. the guy who runs joeisdone has reflected that the Democrats' (who are doomed) best hope to overcome the massive wave of red voters bearing down on them is to do everything they can to suppress election-day turnout by slashing hours and closing polling places 
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Oct 26, 2020 19:23
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TwoQuestions posted:I don't recall Trump talking about the wall anymore, or him denigrating Latinos as a bunch of drug-addled rapist murderers. That alone should get Trump some points. Yeah you beat me to this. Covid has driven the conversation away from The Wall and ugly racist rhetoric against Mexicans. Obviously the overall effect is far worse for Trump, but it wouldn't surprise me if the lack of him talking about brown rapists in the news every other day has improved his standing a bit among Hispanic voters in 2020 compared with 2016.
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Oct 26, 2020 19:24
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