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eke out posted:lol second to last paragraph of the siena writeup Latinos in general are notorious for being an extremely difficult demographic to poll. They're the big reason pollsters always have so much difficulty with Nevada.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:14
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Incumbent GOP president at 47% in Texas, with 10% undecided and a week to go . Yiiiiiiiiiiikes. Think real hard what would be the likely outcome if polling in New York looked like this for Biden.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:17
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Anything that helps Texas down ballot means blue Texas is possible instead of a pipe dream. We need to take as much as we can this year to break the GOP control.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:17
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Rea posted:https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1320739525367398400 Like he's telling them to vote for Trump and some of them are doing it.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:18
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I suppose now would be a good time to ask. Has there ever been a leak or dump of internal party polling after the election?
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Oct 26, 2020 18:19
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I don’t think it really matters where they go at this stage, they don’t HAVE to be up in local news when they have so much money they’re running ads on all the big games and Biden has a 2 min spot scheduled to run in all battleground states this upcoming weekend. It’s good to have them out but Biden can be more strategic and help down ballot races in states like Texas where there’s a chance to get more seats locally and in the house Dem. Trump has to make these crazy rear end daily schedules because he’s broke and they can’t run ads everywhere. He has to hope he gets on the local news through these grievance super spreader events. The only thing is in 2016 there wasn’t a pandemic so now he looks like an rear end in a top hat doing it and the local news is saying as much. He’s not getting the good press he got before.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:19
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DutchDupe posted:I'm taking the NYT's poll at face value and guessing Trump has the edge still. Biden lagging with hispanic voters is a problem he had going back to the primaries. Rea posted:Texas absolutely is not "clearly out of reach" when multiple decent polls have shown a statistical tie. Biden polling at 43 in the highest quality poll of TX a week out, definitely puts it out of reach. There would need to be some major Trump surprise that makes people who haven't voted yet stay home or switch to Biden. Even if Biden is feeling comfortable with the Rust Belt states, the extra time and resources should go to states like AZ or NC, which are leaning Biden, but not as heavily.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:20
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Latinos in general are notorious for being an extremely difficult demographic to poll. They're the big reason pollsters always have so much difficulty with Nevada. How many pollsters (if any) conduct Spanish-language polls?
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Oct 26, 2020 18:20
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VitalSigns posted:I don't see why that's an unreasonable result when Biden's pitch to Hispanic voters is "if you have a problem with my policy of caging kids, go vote for Trump why don't you" Biden doesn't have a policy of "caging kids", Trump and his administration on the other hand have a policy of specifically separating immigrants from their parents at the border. Trump Tried to Blur Responsibility for His Family Separation Policy in Final Debate quote:President Trump has never been known for making apologies or displaying regret, but when his policy of separating children from their families at the southwestern border arose during his debate with former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. on Thursday, he had a ready deflection for the “kids in cages” accusation.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:21
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VitalSigns posted:I don't see why that's an unreasonable result when Biden's pitch to Hispanic voters is "if you have a problem with my policy of caging kids, go vote for Trump why don't you" If Trump wins 40% of the latino vote in Texas I'll eat a sock.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:22
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The stock market is also making GBS threads itself so thats going to be a thing.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:22
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Even if Biden doesn't win Texas outright, there's still a ton of value sending at least some resources there to deny the GOP a supermajority, and to make their majority much thinner. I'd be rending my clothes (more) if that were a PA poll, and drinking myself to death if it was NY or CA, especially if these results followed a pretty clear and explainable trend.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:23
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Budzilla posted:I suppose now would be a good time to ask. Has there ever been a leak or dump of internal party polling after the election? There were some postmortems of both Obama and Romney's internal polling after 2012. This Bloomberg article comes with a handy graphic that compares Gallup's polling to Obama's internal polling.  Youth Decay posted:How many pollsters (if any) conduct Spanish-language polls? There's some pollsters that focus on polling Latinx voters exclusively, who conduct bilingual polling. I don't know off the top of my head who, if any, of the major public pollsters (NYT/Siena, Monmouth, those types) do bilingual polling.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:23
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eke out posted:- we think nonwhite support is going to carry trump to the win, in the face of suburban white revolt
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Oct 26, 2020 18:28
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https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1320774676600262658 LOOKS LIKE TEXAS IS BACK ON THE MENU, BOYS
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Oct 26, 2020 18:29
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Tater Love 
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Wasn't there a poll a week or so ago showing suprisingly high trump support among latinx even outside Florida?
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Oct 26, 2020 18:29
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TRUMP! *click* Has always been the superior explaination for bad polls to the ludicrous idea of shy trump voters. TyrantWD posted:Biden polling at 43 in the highest quality poll of TX a week out, definitely puts it out of reach. There would need to be some major Trump surprise that makes people who haven't voted yet stay home or switch to Biden. Even if Biden is feeling comfortable with the Rust Belt states, the extra time and resources should go to states like AZ or NC, which are leaning Biden, but not as heavily. Behind by 4 with 10% undecided isn't out of reach. Unlikely for sure, but still the closest to the prophesied Blue Texas than ever before.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:30
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Telsa Cola posted:Wasn't there a poll a week or so ago showing suprisingly high trump support among latinx even outside Florida? Generally Quinnipiac's thing IIRC
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Oct 26, 2020 18:30
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Grouchio posted:So the NYT/Siena poll being somewhat inaccurate is a bit of an understatement. It remains to be seen, but it is possible that their perspective on Latinx voters is wrong, yes. Remember that NYT/Siena dropped the ball with TX-SEN in 2018: they got Cruz's margin pretty much right, but severely underestimated O'Rourke's margin. Like, way outside the MoE—they had a MoE of ±3.6%, and missed by about 5%.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:30
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TyrantWD posted:Biden lagging with hispanic voters is a problem he had going back to the primaries. 47-43 with 10% undecided is literally what Hillary was showing in Pennsylvania in late October 2016. In an unrelated event, Texas suburbs are at 100% of their ‘16 vote more than a week from Election Day. Meaning lots of new voters in these big counties. Not saying it’s gonna happen, but it definitely is not impossible. Here’s a handy guide to winning margins for Republicans in Texas : +16 White is Right +10 Normal stuff here +6 Ladies like that sexy Beto +4 Did someone forget Election Day? +2 Oh gently caress - 1 Fetch my brown pants
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Oct 26, 2020 18:31
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Nieuw Amsterdam posted:Incumbent GOP president at 47% in Texas, with 10% undecided and a week to go . Yiiiiiiiiiiikes. Yeah, haven't we all been talking about how the MI/WI/PA 2016 polls showing Clinton with a slight lead below 50% with a ton of undecideds should have been, in retrospect, a gigantic warning sign? Especially since she was perceived like an incumbent against a person perceived as a newcomer?
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Oct 26, 2020 18:32
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Still, toss it on the pile
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Oct 26, 2020 18:32
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Grouchio posted:So the NYT/Siena poll being somewhat inaccurate is a bit of an understatement. i mean we don't know poo poo, but quote:"Mr. Biden leads, 61-30, among Hispanic voters who say they’ve already voted or are “almost certain” to do so, while Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are effectively tied among those who are less likely. Mr. Biden has an even wider lead of 73-20 among Hispanic voters who say they have already voted." means the crosstabs, to take biden's lead from 73-20 all the way down to 61-30, require the "almost certain" group of hispanic voters to be nearly evenly split. judge for yourself whether you think trump getting half the remaining hispanic voters sounds likely
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Oct 26, 2020 18:33
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Sarcastro posted:Yeah, haven't we all been talking about how the MI/WI/PA 2016 polls showing Clinton with a slight lead below 50% with a ton of undecideds should have been, in retrospect, a gigantic warning sign? Especially since she was perceived like an incumbent against a person perceived as a newcomer? Nobody paid as much attention to the toplines as they should. That being said Clinton did reach 50+ in a few polls so it can't all be attributed to undecideds.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:34
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DutchDupe posted:If Trump wins 40% of the latino vote in Texas I'll eat a sock. We'll see. The party nominated an arch-segregationist who loved Strom Thurmond and who wrote the crime bill, and who is still a racist who is so infuriated when nonwhite voters question him that he tells them to vote for Trump, accuses them of not really being black, etc. He just can't handle black people talking to him as equals instead of deferring to him. It's not really a mystery why they might not turn out for him, they didn't turn out for Hillary and she wasn't nearly as condescending as he is.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:34
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Zore posted:https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320772723942019074 Is there something about the Texas Panhandle that causes no matter what ethnicity or gender you are to become the most Republican of hardcore Republicans? Is there a bunch of buried radioactive waste there or something?
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Oct 26, 2020 18:36
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Rea posted:There were some postmortems of both Obama and Romney's internal polling after 2012 Oddly enough 2012 was the unskewed pills dude and the Romney campaign thought his numbers were legit.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:36
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TulliusCicero posted:Is there something about the Texas Panhandle that causes no matter what ethnicity or gender you are to become the most Republican of hardcore Republicans? The Panhandle is basically Oklahoma.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:38
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Grouchio posted:Like I wasn't traumatized to the same extent as others in 2016 (in part thanks to elections like 2014 and 2010) but my brain still has that anxious feeling in the back going 'you can imagine how stressed and panicky you'll be on election night' and I don't know how to avoid that. Like, I guess I've never had anxiety or intrusive thoughts before, but yeah I find that I think about the election every day even though logically I know that it serves no purpose and is harmful to me. My plan for election night is to mix potentially a lot of nice drinks for myself and maybe get like a nice take-away dinner of indian food then stay up all night drinking and watching because I don't know that I would be any happier doing anything else. I took Wednesday off from work so that I can sleep in or come to terms with the worst happening. In 2016 I went to bed at like 8:00 never thinking that there was a chance Trump would win. I worked early mornings then and got up at 4:00am to discover what had happened and then had to go through a full day of work--I know I don't want to do that again.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:38
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VitalSigns posted:We'll see. The party nominated an arch-segregationist who loved Strom Thurmond and who wrote the crime bill, and who is still a racist who is so infuriated when nonwhite voters question him that he tells them to vote for Trump, accuses them of not really being black, etc. He just can't handle black people talking to him as equals instead of deferring to him. i mean, taking a reality that exists only in your head and extrapolating from it is sure a thing, but outside of the trump campaign and a handful of other Houses Of Nuttery this view of biden is shared by basically nobody, so assuming the entire hispanic population of texas is voting based on it is a stretch
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Oct 26, 2020 18:38
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To everyone - please don't let this thread cause you anxiety. I am happy to issue temp probes but also sometimes its ok to take a break!
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Oct 26, 2020 18:39
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exquisite tea posted:Nobody paid as much attention to the toplines as they should. That being said Clinton did reach 50+ in a few polls so it can't all be attributed to undecideds. 51-49 and 46-43 have the same spread but are very very different in practice. An incumbent president under 50 in a core base state with a week to go and record turnout should be worried.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:40
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Gabriel S. posted:Biden doesn't have a policy of "caging kids", Trump and his administration on the other hand have a policy of specifically separating immigrants from their parents at the border. Even so, Biden's failure to reach out to Latino voters effectively is a well-documented phenomenon: quote:Even more concerning for Democrats is that young Latino men born in the United States seem to be inching toward Trump, intrigued perhaps by the president’s business persona. No single group has posted a larger statistical bump for Trump than Latino men under the age of 50, according to Equis. Biden's still probably going to win this thing, but there's a good chance he's blown his chances in Texas by not having a stronger pitch to these voters. The Democratic Party leadership should find these trends concerning, especially regarding their 2022 and 2024 prospects.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:41
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10% undecided seems gigantic compared to other states. Is that normal for this pollster/state?
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Oct 26, 2020 18:41
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evilweasel posted:i mean, taking a reality that exists only in your head and extrapolating from it is sure a thing, but outside of the trump campaign and a handful of other Houses Of Nuttery this view of biden is shared by basically nobody, so assuming the entire hispanic population of texas is voting based on it is a stretch I've got no evidence, but I would assume Hispanics in the Southwest are more likely than elsewhere in the country to not be first or second generation immigrants. A lot of families in those areas had the border change around them rather than immigrate. I think there's probably a fundamental difference if you or your parents were immigrants and there's a hard-core anti-immigrant on the ballot vs. your family lived in the same region for 6 generations
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Oct 26, 2020 18:42
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TulliusCicero posted:Is there something about the Texas Panhandle that causes no matter what ethnicity or gender you are to become the most Republican of hardcore Republicans? If you're the only person for 10 miles around its natural to think the idea of a society is a myth
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Oct 26, 2020 18:42
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Antifa Turkeesian posted:10% undecided seems gigantic compared to other states. Is that normal for this pollster/state? NYT/Siena always ends up with high undecideds, yeah. I still don't entirely get what's going on, but I'm not confident enough to call it a mistake or methodological error.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:42
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Antifa Turkeesian posted:10% undecided seems gigantic compared to other states. Is that normal for this pollster/state? It's normal for NYT.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:43
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It's a methodological choice, Cohn explained it on Twitter last week
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Oct 26, 2020 18:43
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Majorian posted:Even so, Biden's failure to reach out to Latino voters effectively is a well-documented phenomenon: While I agree with your premise that Biden should have done better outreach I think it's a little hindsighty for the Democratic party to have taken Texas into consideration. We basically collectively shat ourselves when it was clear that Texas was in play. That being said yeah they need to focus on that poo poo in the future.
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Oct 26, 2020 18:43
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