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a neat cape posted:Why is the team always behind, then Seriously. You know what's better than a 4th quarter comeback? Winning the game in the first three TheChirurgeon fucked around with this message at 19:55 on Sep 12, 2017 |
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Sep 12, 2017 19:27
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Master Stur posted:N: Texans starting their backup rookie QB against the bengals Are they? I heard Watson was seen visibly limping after the game on Sunday
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Sep 12, 2017 23:27
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Athanatos posted:He did both duties his Jr and Sr years, but they just told him to go out there and kick it as far as he could so he never really paid it any practice time. He only worked out for NFL teams as a Kicker so when the Colts called, he didn't really have the whole being a punter thing down. hahahahaha that owns
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Sep 13, 2017 03:01
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Nit Wit Dog poo poo posted:Hekker makes watching the punter fun and exciting. He had zero touchbacks on punts last year. Zero. That's insane given how many Rams drives ended in punts
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Sep 13, 2017 03:20
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AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:Well, to be fair, those drives were really short, so Hekker could probably not it as far as he wanted and it still would not be a touchback. good point
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Sep 13, 2017 11:17
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No Butt Stuff posted:I still don't know what DVOA or DYAR means. Defense-adjusted Value Over Average Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement DVOA is an efficiency measure--how good are you at getting/preventing first downs/scores on a per-play basis, versus the average team DYAR is an attempt to do WAR for football They're OK as measures. DVOA has decent predictive power for wins, but has some problems (it's also mostly crap until week 10) and FO isn't as transparent as they need to be about how it's calculated.
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Sep 13, 2017 15:49
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Grittybeard posted:Schatz is also hilariously passive aggressive over the whole thing and it make me laugh every time. Also true. That stupid rider they put in every DVOA rankings article is particularly cringe-worthy
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Sep 13, 2017 16:02
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Blitz7x posted:Isn't DVOA useless until later in the season? Yes. They try and fill in some gaps with preseason data/predictions early on, but it doesn't work all that well. WHOOPS posted:I feel like Schatz was relatively content with the combination of guest articles for ESPN and Football Outsiders being Mike Tanier's starting point but then PFF coming onto the scene and quickly earning media/team legitimacy turned him bitter. I can't blame him too much for that; I'd be bitter too because PFF is absolute garbage-tier nonsense
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Sep 13, 2017 16:21
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WHOOPS posted:There's also this passive aggressive "gently caress off" in Audibles at the Line enh, that bit never struck me as passive aggressive in the same way that their "form letter" response to DVOA articles that references "chat-acceptable spelling" is
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Sep 13, 2017 16:26
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WHOOPS posted:It's just a lovely way to dismiss people wanting to see more content in Audibles at the Line, even if it's not as bad as the DVOA stuff. I like Audibles, but it doesn't seems more like bonus content, so I can see why they'd want to avoid putting more time/money into it each week. On the "good content" side, Word of Muth is a fantastic column
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Sep 13, 2017 16:38
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Cash Monet posted:QBs handcuffing salary caps probably doesn't do teams any favors. gently caress that noise, the owners are the ones demanding the caps "oh boo hoo hoo I'd sure like to pay these offensive line fellas more if only it weren't for this SELFISH GLORY BOY QUARTERBACK demanding all this money taking up all of the allotted cap that I vehemently fought to put in place and keep low"
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Sep 13, 2017 18:30
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SKULL.GIF posted:https://twitter.com/evansilva/status/907907399327117317 It's an interesting argument. Part of the issue is that most sacks are the fault of the QB and not the line, unless the line is really, really bad. It's also hard to separate how much of it is "bad offensive line talent" and "poor coaching/player use/scheme development" on the part of the offensive staff. I wanted to dig into this, so I took a look at drafts over the last 5* and last 10 years to see if there was a correlation between team OL picks and picks in the first 2 rounds (since not all picks are created equal) and offensive line strength. *the average Olineman career is 3.75 years. Here's the data, for anyone interested: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-Cf0HBLiOSzDBQxq6f5Y5u4oSkBm4zB5bOD5XGaHnGo/edit?usp=sharing Even without looking at the oline data I pulled from FO, it doesn't look like picks correlate to offensive line success--for example, Seattle and Indianapolis are among the teams that have invested the most round 1/2 picks into offensive linemen over the past 5 and past 10 years, but you wouldn't argue they have much to show for it. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have invested 2 round 1/2 picks into offensive linemen over the past 5 years, but only 4 total picks over that time. Even if there's a dearth of offensive line talent, Seattle and Indy's pick-wise investments into the position should have yielded better results than they have, barring incredibly bad luck. It seems more likely that these teams are either bad at choosing the right players, and bad at developing the talent they draft. What *was* surprising is that the correlations went the opposite way from what I expected, by the way--more Oline picks in the first 2 rounds tended to correlate with worse offensive line performance last year. I don't have a good explanation for this right now, but I'm open to theories. Part of it will be that I included the 2017 draft, so I'll try and re-run later today with just through 2016 if I get a chance.
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Sep 13, 2017 19:21
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SKULL.GIF posted:If you have a good line you don't need to draft linemen highly, might be it. It's usually the teams with terrible lines that try to dig up a diamond in the first round. Yeah, that's my working theory, but over longer periods of time (5-10 years), picking more offensive linemen should net you a better line. Even if, as the article suggests, there's less good oline talent overall, picking more of them each year should still give you a higher chance of getting a good one. I think that points to the notion that the teams making more picks aren't just digging to improve a bad offensive line, but also failing to either pick the right players or develop the players they get. Dallas had a bad offensive line and rarely drafted offensive linemen in the first two rounds before Tyron Smith, then they went on a spree with Smith, Martin, and Frederick, but made among the fewest round 1-2 picks of any team drafting since 2012. On the flip side, Tennessee leads the league in oline picks since 2007, but only has 3 picks in the first 2 rounds over that time, all made in the last 5 years.
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Sep 13, 2017 19:36
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WHOOPS posted:Did you notice any kind of overlap with QB quality? Like, I'm wondering if having a better QB compensates for developing lineman so they can grow without getting crucified for a missed assignment. Obviously some teams that isn't a factor at all (Seattle) but then I think about how a lot of the Packers better lineman in recent years started out with rough edges. Not really; it's all over the place. I'd also think that teams with good QBs are more likely to try to draft good talent to protect him., but the data doesn't really bear that out much either.
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Sep 13, 2017 20:01
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Kalli posted:Yeah, like Brady is fantastic at reading and adjusting the offense on what the defense is doing, but the two years Dante Scarrnechia retired, the oline was complete poo poo. Yeah, though Brady and Peyton pretty much determined when they'd get sacked most of the time--the sack rates for their teams are insanely consistent over the last 15 years, to the point where when Peyton switched teams, the Broncos' sack rate dipped to Peyton-on-the-Colts levels. I made this earlier in the year and I think it pretty clearly illustrates the relationship between QB and sack rate.  e: You can't see all the other teams but if I put them back in you'd see that Manning's team was always the lowest or 2nd lowest in sack rate any given year, regardless of talent or team TheChirurgeon fucked around with this message at 21:01 on Sep 13, 2017 |
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Sep 13, 2017 20:58
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hifi posted:this is sort of interesting but big ben was rocking like a 8.5% sack rate before haley came in and like 5% afterwards. I think the trends are more of quarterback preference and less of a correlation between skill and sack rate I'm not so sure. Ben's sack rate was already declining steadily before Haley joined the Steelers in 2012. When I look at this chart, the progression post-Haley matches the progression pre-Haley and suggests a QB that's becoming more savvy about getting rid of the ball and avoiding sacks.  Avoiding sacks and getting rid of the ball are definitely a skill and not a "preference." Ben may have held the ball longer early in his career, particularly because he was good at getting throws under pressure/while being contacted, but that wasn't a sustainable strategy, particularly as he got hurt more often later*. Offensive line improvements and scheme improvements will help a QB's sack rate, but ultimately the QB is responsible for getting rid of the ball on sacks that take longer than 3 seconds. *worth noting: 2010, 2012, 2015, and 2016 all saw fewer than 15 starts from Ben - 12, 13, 11, and 14 games respectively, and so the team sack rate data will reflect non-Ben play for that many games. TheChirurgeon fucked around with this message at 21:40 on Sep 13, 2017 |
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Sep 13, 2017 21:38
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Grittybeard posted:This is not backed up by statistics or anything, but I'd say Ben's a special case. That chart looks like an aging quarterback who used to give absolutely no shits about a pass rush since he'd just shrug anyone who tried to tackle him off facing mortality, maybe with a small bit of of better line play or coaching. I only edited in the note about Ben missing games, but my comment below the chart was easy to miss. I agree with you on Ben not being average and improving his sack rates not because of Haley, but because he stopped trying to make throws with defenders draped over him.
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Sep 13, 2017 21:51
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Hockles posted:I keep forgetting to mention this, every time the Romo video gets posted. But, Bernie Kosar did the same thing when he was the color guy for the Browns pre-season games. Obviously, you have opinions on how he audibly sounded when he spoke, but he "called" plays and what the defense was going to do before many snaps just like Romo. What I'm hearing from this is that former Cowboys QBs own in the broadcast booth* *except Aikman, but it's hard to separate Joe Buck out of that experience
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Sep 14, 2017 16:04
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Ice Fist posted:For as much poo poo as Aikman gets there were moments in the playoff games he called last year for the Packers that he made some amazing predictions. Like, there was a play he circled Randall Cobb and goes "watch Cobb in the slot here" and Cobb scored a 30 yard TD. There were some sweet calls like that. I like Aikman in the booth, I just don't think he's amazing. And also he comes packaged with Joe Buck, who sucks
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Sep 14, 2017 16:09
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I want to like TNF in theory because it means I get to watch more games every week, but injury issues and game quality just make it such a chore. I'd rather the NFL do MNF double-headers every week instead.
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Sep 14, 2017 17:12
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a patagonian cavy posted:yeah I have no idea how they put together the spread on this one Gotta be all Andy Dalton
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Sep 14, 2017 17:17
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candide posted:Texans are gonna lose in a blowout and Watson will get benched after 32 plays. he'll get hurt and taken out before 32 plays; he was already seen limping after Sunday's game
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Sep 14, 2017 18:44
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Spoeank posted:lol holy fuckin poo poo holy poo poo thank you for posting this I now feel 100% better
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Sep 18, 2017 02:03
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fsif posted:The NFL has been more boring than usual this season, but I am absolutely down with the return of the crusty sportswriters lecturing Dallas Cowboys. It's not ideal, and Elliott def looked shameful as gently caress on that INT, but I *may* be OK with star QBs/RBs/WRs not chasing down DBs for the tackle. Seems like a real high chance of injury
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Sep 18, 2017 15:32
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Randaconda posted:Jerry Rice never took plays off. Sure, whatever. I'm thinking about times like when Dalton hurt himself tackling Stephen Tuitt and the Bengals had to trot out McCarron
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Sep 18, 2017 16:01
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Yeah. I say "may" because circumstances matter a lot on that too. Not going all out in the playoffs is different from not going all out in a blowout loss during the regular season I dunno. I'm on the fence. There are times when I want guys chasing down the returner, and times when the risk isn't worth it. Like I don't really want to see Dak trying to tackle a linebacker unless the season is on the line
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Sep 18, 2017 16:08
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Mr. Nice! posted:I don't think Zeke is able to chase down Talib anyways. He's running the wrong way with a full head of steam, and it's not like Aqib Talib is known for being slow. Talib's 31. Zeke could have caught him over the course of 100 yards
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Sep 18, 2017 16:12
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Kalli posted:Chir, or somebody was talking about how mismatched the Cowboys' secondary was yesterday Yeah, it was pretty dire. Scandrick and Hitchens were both inactive coming into the game, then injuries to Awuzie and Carroll left the team with only two healthy cornerbacks on the roster, Anthony Brown and rookie Jourdan Lewis. Benwikere is also on the roster, but wasn't active because the Cowboys chose to bring an extra receiver (Terrell WIlliams had an ankle injury last week, so they wanted a back-up there). This was a dumb move, even without the benefit of hindsight. The Cowboys moved Xavier Woods from Safety into the nickel corner spot and collectively the unit spent all game missing tackles and being out of position. The unit may be OK at full health, but the Cowboys have almost no depth on defense this year.
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Sep 18, 2017 16:18
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Mr. Nice! posted:I was mistaken anyways. I was thinking people gave him poo poo about not chasing on the final interception, but it was one in the 3rd instead where the guy ran right in front of him. He absolutely could have helped on that. Yeah, he could have caught him there too and the game hadn't gotten away from the Cowboys at that point
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Sep 18, 2017 16:45
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FizFashizzle posted:If romo can spot that you gotta think everyone else does too. Even if a team can spot it, they still have to put in the work to weed it out of their scouting. Teams have to deal with finite time and resources every week
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Sep 18, 2017 17:31
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That has to be the Browns' first win this season, right?
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Sep 18, 2017 21:26
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