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Welcome to the thread for the 2020 United States Senate elections! This is probably our most frustrating branch of government, in the long-term sense, because it takes so much more effort, timing, and luck to flip it from one party to the other. As challenging candidates start to declare, this thread is for that branch of discussion to splinter off from other threads, and become its own thing. This post will explain generalities of the Senate, the next will feature what's coming up in 2020 overall, and the third will feature specific candidates and races. THE SENATE.  America's most entrenched elected officials, senators are elected every 6 years, with two for each state. As with the case with things like the Electoral College system of indirect, vaguely suggested democracy, Senators were originally appointed by state legislatures until 1912, when direct elections began. Senators are on a six-year campaign cycle, with a third of the Senate up for election every two years. Every state will have two elections out of three with a senator up for re-election, and one election with no Senate election. Each group of senate seats up for re-election at the same time are labeled classes, and you have Class 1, Class 2, and Class 3 Senators. This becomes important later on.  Blue means that your state has elections in 2020 and 2022. Last elections in 2014 and 2016. Green means that your state has elections in 2020 and 2024. Last elections in 2014 and 2018 Purple means that your state has elections in 2022 and 2024. Last elections in 2016 and 2018. Class 1, up for election in 2024 - 23 Democrats, 10 Republicans Class 2, up for election in 2020 - 12 Democrats, 21 Republicans Class 3, up for election in 2022 - 12 Democrats, 22 Republicans This creates a scenario with two major factors at play: the overall national mood, and what states are in play at what times. The idea behind this is that one branch (the Senate) has the long-term interests and perspectives of the people, and the other (the House) is designed for the short-term opinions. Therefore, the Senate is a lot harder to change than the House, which can flip from election to election as every member is always up for re-election. That doesn't mean the national mood can't affect the Senate though! This leads to a scenario where wave elections can be somewhat limited, as you need the right timing to flip things. Let's take a look at the last couple decades of elections, and who "won" them overall, starting in 2000. 2000, Class 1 - Bush wins tied election, Democrats win overall. Democrats gain four seats, Senate ends up tied 50-50. First election since 1988 where the Democrats made net gains in the Senate. 2002, Class 2 - Post 9/11 midterm, Republicans gain everywhere. Republicans gain two seats, Republicans lead 51-49. 2004, Class 3 - Bush wins presidency, Republicans generally win. Republicans gain four seats, Republicans lead 55-46. 2006, Class 1 - Democratic wave of Bush backlash, Democrats generally gain. Democrats gain five seats, lead 51-49 2008, Class 2 - Obama wins presidency, Democrats win. Democrats gain eight seats, lead 59-41. 2010, Class 3 - Tea Party backlash, general Republican win. Republicans gain six seats, Democrats lead 53-47. 2012, Class 1 - Obama wins presidency, Democrats win overall. Democrats gain two seats, Democrats lead 55-45. 2014, Class 2 - General Republican win, Republicans win overall. Republicans gain nine seats, Republicans lead 54-46. 2016, Class 3 - Trump wins presidency, Clinton implodes party structure, Republicans win big. Democrats still gain two seats, 52-48. 2018, Class 1 - Democrats win everywhere in Trump backlash. Republicans still win two seats, 53-47 Why didn't the Democrats win the Senate in 2018, or at least gain seats? It's because those seats available in 2018 were mostly Democratic seats that needed re-election, not Republican seats that could be flipped. Those seats were gained in 2012, 2006, and 2000, all years very favorable to Democrats, and therefore building up to a year where Senate Democrats were more on defense. However, that also sets up a board where Republicans are on defense for the next two election cycles. That will be explored in the next post, with specific races after that. AsInHowe fucked around with this message at 17:52 on Jun 6, 2019 |
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Jun 6, 2019 16:59
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This post is being saved for a 2020 outlook.
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Jun 6, 2019 17:00
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This post is being saved for specific 2020 races, favorable to flipping seats.
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Jun 6, 2019 17:00
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This post is being saved for 2020 races that are projected to stay in the same party, or with the same senator.
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Jun 6, 2019 17:01
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Dem Primary Loser Thunderdome!
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Jun 6, 2019 17:12
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Is there any hope or rumblings about Mark Warner facing a primary challenge? He's my Senator and sucks rear end.
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Jun 6, 2019 17:16
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Surely in the purple states in the op the last senate elections were 2018 and 2014, not 2012 and 2014
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Jun 6, 2019 17:50
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VitalSigns posted:Surely in the purple states in the op the last senate elections were 2018 and 2014, not 2012 and 2014 this is true, somewhat forgot what year it was for a second there
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Jun 6, 2019 17:52
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Looking forward to this thread, thank you for the OP!
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Jun 6, 2019 20:23
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Lets see if our timeline is weird enough for South Carolina to be the first state with two black Senators.
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Jun 6, 2019 21:53
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This post is being saved for predictions
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Jun 7, 2019 00:40
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This post is being saved for a list of my thread enemies (0 so far)
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Jun 7, 2019 00:40
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Gyges posted:Lets see if our timeline is weird enough for South Carolina to be the first state with two black Senators. It's possible. Graham's never been super popular here, although going full Trump toadie might help.
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Jun 8, 2019 08:18
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B B posted:Is there any hope or rumblings about Mark Warner facing a primary challenge? He's my Senator and sucks rear end. Hey he's better than Kaine. Going into 2017 I had high hopes for the future of the state party. Then Northam won, then the events of one week in 2019 happened. Now we'll be lucky if the Dems even have a say in the post-2020 redistricting.
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Jun 8, 2019 20:00
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Shinji2015 posted:It's possible. Graham's never been super popular here, although going full Trump toadie might help. Help us or help him?
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Jun 8, 2019 20:03
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yo is this legit? https://twitter.com/missmayn/status/1138861701665681409
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Jun 12, 2019 20:55
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Gripweed posted:yo is this legit? I believe it. Any idiot who could be running for Senate seems to be running for president instead. But a lot of those states probably have filing deadlines that are at least several months away, so maybe some challengers will show up before then.
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Jun 12, 2019 22:57
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Gripweed posted:yo is this legit? Consider who they are https://twitter.com/missmayn/status/1138862715399630848?s=19 I mean, 100% at least get a warm body in there but those are mostly the stretch races.
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Jun 13, 2019 16:20
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Seyser Koze posted:Help us or help him? Him, sorry.
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Jun 13, 2019 16:26
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Gyges posted:Consider who they are Any given Republican Senate candidate has about a 5% chance of getting outed as a horrifying sex pervert during the race. The Dems really should be trying harder
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Jun 13, 2019 20:03
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Yeah at the very least find a friendly teacher or nurse or something to put on the ballot and just have them ready to start campaigning if the GOP nominee gets outed as a child rapist.
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Jun 15, 2019 17:34
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Absolutely, but it also makes sense that if the filing deadline is still pretty far away for those races we haven't reached the "gently caress it, if nobody else is running I'll do it." stage yet where our everyman heroes step up to the plate. I mean, looking at that list it's almost certainly the Kansas open seat that has the best chance of flipping. Good luck to that long as gently caress shot Democratic candidate. Maybe the Republican candidate will go off on how floods are no big deal in a rebuttal to climate change and you'll get lucky.
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Jun 15, 2019 19:01
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The digram color is pink not purple
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Jun 15, 2019 20:27
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I'm hoping for information about North Carolina in this thread. People have been saying for a year or so now that the GOP incumbent in NC is one of the most vulnerable Senators in the country after the primary targets in Maine and Colorado. North Carolina is arguably the bluest state in the South East (not counting Virginia of course) outpacing Democrat strength in Georgia, Louisiana and probably even Florida at this point. Last I heard, there was still a possibility of their gerrymander being broken by the courts in time for 2020, giving Democrats incentive to run for the State Legislature and Congressional Seats in historic fashion, which could in turn drive a lot of local turnout as people get the chance to see their vote mater for the first time in many cycles. The national party has incentive to invest big in North Carolina because they have the governor's mansion to defend, and NCGov is the single most important one on the board for the post-Census redistrict (except perhaps Missouri). And there's the tiny matter of NC having 15 electoral votes on offer, meaning a blue victory there would all-but-guarantee the Presidency. So... what's going on with this race? I'm eager to know.
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Jun 16, 2019 03:23
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Sanguinia posted:I'm hoping for information about North Carolina in this thread. quote:Because of the controversy over the law, the film’s subjects referred to the state as “ground zero” for voter suppression. The film shows one polling place in Fayetteville where a volunteer was stationed. More than 1,200 people showed up to vote, but only 598 of them were able to cast valid votes. It's unclear why that was the case.
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Jun 16, 2019 04:16
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e: nevermind, not a word of what I said had anything to do with 2020 statewide elections, much less the Senate.
Corsair Pool Boy fucked around with this message at 05:27 on Jun 17, 2019 |
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Jun 17, 2019 05:08
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Sanguinia posted:I'm hoping for information about North Carolina in this thread. Tillis narrowly beat Kay Hagan during Obama's lameduck midterm, which is enough to make it an appealing target on its own. Tillis, meanwhile, will have to fend off primary challenges that will drain some of his incumbency advantage. State Senator Erica Smith had been the frontrunner on the Dem side but some extremely exciting polling from Emerson this month (Smith 46-39, with 15 UD) appears to have convinced Cal Cunningham to hop from the Lt Gov race into the senate primary. The path to a Dem majority absolutely goes through NC, so it's a primary I'm watching closely. Tillis' reply to Cunningham's entry was to nationalize the race and bring up Schumer.
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Jun 17, 2019 20:23
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